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https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/dec/22/bridgewater-associates-ai-artificial-intelligence-management?CMP=share_btn_tw
 

“The role of many remaining humans at the firm wouldn’t be to make individual choices but to design the criteria by which the system makes decisions, intervening when something isn’t working,” wrote the Journal, which spoke to five former and current employees.

The firm, which manages $160bn, created the team of programmers specializing in analytics and artificial intelligence, dubbed the Systematized Intelligence Lab, in early 2015. The unit is headed up by David Ferrucci, who previously led IBM’s development of Watson, the supercomputer that beat humans at Jeopardy! in 2011.
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So, for the year:

S&P: 9.5%

Portfolio::  11.75%

Net Worth: 14.0%

:thumbup:  to 2016, particularly the last month - Trumpticipation pays off, at least temporarily.  

 
Sand said:
So, for the year:

S&P: 9.5%

Portfolio::  11.75%

Net Worth: 14.0%

:thumbup:  to 2016, particularly the last month - Trumpticipation pays off, at least temporarily.  
Click to expand...
The key for 2017 is to be on the sidelines when the big drop happens. Should get one early in the year if not January itself and then late fall.

 
lod001 said:
The key for 2017 is to be on the sidelines when the big drop happens. Should get one early in the year if not January itself and then late fall.
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If I could only predict the drops in the markets... (I'd make Dalio look like a pauper).  I can, however, keep track of macro indicators and right now the macro economy bull is still in place.  I'm actually only about 55% equities, so my beta should be much lower than the market, anyway.

 
Sand said:
If I could only predict the drops in the markets... (I'd make Dalio look like a pauper).  I can, however, keep track of macro indicators and right now the macro economy bull is still in place.  I'm actually only about 55% equities, so my beta should be much lower than the market, anyway.
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I moved a decent chunk (about half) of my retirement money into gold and into cash on Friday 12/23. Also moved a lot of my remaining equities into staple goods. I have to follow what my brain and my heart tell me--this country (and our economy) cannot function under a President Trump. Part of me wants to move into foreign currencies, even, but since I know so little about them or the process, I'll stick with dollars and gold. 

 
I'll do the research at some point, but anybody know offhand if rolling an ESOP account into an IRA is substantially different than rolling a 401k?

 
Don't Noonan said:
Good luck trying to time the market!  Go ahead and post when you decide to go in cash.  K thanks
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It's not a case of timing as much as it is paying attention. For instance, if you see a sell off, sell. You can't wait though. If you are out and the market drops 1%, then get right back in. While everyone else rode it down, you did as well but you saved 1%. I expect to move my money 30 times or more in 2017. Greed has cost me, not market timing. For Brexit, I left pre-vote but did not listen to my own plan because I wanted another 1% and the bounce happened faster than I expected. I did save some $ but not as much as I had hoped. Same happened at the election but that was because some #### head blabbered about Clinton not being indicted over the weekend. I was set to get back in Monday but missed a nice win because of that. 

There will be 3 or 4 times this year where you will be able to attempt this. Yeah, it's not easy but it is doable. The toughest part is picking the fund(s) I want to be in. VCNIX - NAZ 100 has been the one that has failed me a couple times when I have jumped back in and it didn't keep pace with the S&P or small caps.

I am 66% in cash as I write this. One account I don't move $ around as much because I can't. Yeah I'm gambling.

 
Got back into NTRSP at $25.10 some time during the holidays.  Figure if they go belly up I'm probably going to have to go Frankie Five Angels anyway.  Might as well make more than 2% while we wait for it. 

 
pecorino said:
I moved a decent chunk (about half) of my retirement money into gold and into cash on Friday 12/23. Also moved a lot of my remaining equities into staple goods. I have to follow what my brain and my heart tell me--this country (and our economy) cannot function under a President Trump. Part of me wants to move into foreign currencies, even, but since I know so little about them or the process, I'll stick with dollars and gold. 
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Why gold?  We're still in a deflationary environment, no matter what the Fed says.  (Not to mention gold is a pet rock with massive inherent price variance, but I won't into that diatribe now.)  Cash isn't bad at this point.

 
Sand said:
Why gold?  We're still in a deflationary environment, no matter what the Fed says.  (Not to mention gold is a pet rock with massive inherent price variance, but I won't into that diatribe now.)  Cash isn't bad at this point.
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Because when the markets correct and folks get scared, they flee to gold.

 
Right now if this continues I'll be running a 202% CAGR for the year.  Fully confident that the markets will lock this in for me.   :pickle:

 
St. Louis Bob said:
If by late you mean "really early" and the Fukushima tragedy cost me a fortune, sure.
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I would think someone who was watching the charts might have jumped in earlier.   Right now I'm moving a different direction, but I thought the buy signal was there earlier.

BTW: anybody know a US clearing house that will still take Canadian microcap certificates?

 
bueno said:
I would think someone who was watching the charts might have jumped in earlier.   Right now I'm moving a different direction, but I thought the buy signal was there earlier.

BTW: anybody know a US clearing house that will still take Canadian microcap certificates?
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I agree but haven't really followed the stock in a while out of disgust.

 
I mentioned this a few months back, I had hired someone to trade an account for me. Started off really well, guy was up about 5% in 6 weeks, however I hated his style and was never comfortable, he felt careless - should've trusted my gut, I fired him today after a loss of about 4% of the account, basically the guy lost 9% in the last 2 weeks, a net of about 4% out of my pocket.

Anyways, I've made a decision - I have no imminent expenses and nothing on the horizon, I have one goal - growth. I was up in the air about just investing every dollar I have into SPY and never thinking about it again, recession/expansion/whatever. With where the S&P is, my plan was to just start dollar cost averaging into it an equal amount, every month (or quarter) until eternity.

My 2nd thought is being more patient and waiting for a recession, where I would initially invest 50% of savings and then dollar cost average until forever.

I'm looking for this to be aggressive, so I won't have more than 15-20% fixed income. Instead of 100% SPY, if you were to chose 5 funds & 1 bond fund to be in forever, what would they be?

I'm thinking:

- A Reit fund

- small cap fund

- spy fund

- emerging market fund

- developed international fund

- 30 year bond fund

Any opinions?

 
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That's more or less my retirement account breakdown which has the same goal as yours, being that I'm 33 (think you're around the same). Excluding the fixed income component entirely. 

10% REIT/20% small cap/40% SPY/10% emerging/10% developed intl/10% bonds if you want them. If you're willing to axe the fixed income, I'd split the remaining into US equities.

 
St. Louis Bob said:
Just bought 250 CCJ at $10.50.  Can't believe I'm in uranium again. :mellow:
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Funny.  I took a very small position in Uranium Participation Fund on 12/28.  I haven't touched uranium in years.  But, we got some good insight that might possibly move price, but I have little conviction and consider this a rental with little patience.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
I mentioned this a few months back, I had hired someone to trade an account for me. Started off really well, guy was up about 5% in 6 weeks, however I hated his style and was never comfortable, he felt careless - should've trusted my gut, I fired him today after a loss of about 4% of the account, basically the guy lost 9% in the last 2 weeks, a net of about 4% out of my pocket.

Anyways, I've made a decision - I have no imminent expenses and nothing on the horizon, I have one goal - growth. I was up in the air about just investing every dollar I have into SPY and never thinking about it again, recession/expansion/whatever. With where the S&P is, my plan was to just start dollar cost averaging into it an equal amount, every month (or quarter) until eternity.

My 2nd thought is being more patient and waiting for a recession, where I would initially invest 50% of savings and then dollar cost average until forever.

I'm looking for this to be aggressive, so I won't have more than 15-20% fixed income. Instead of 100% SPY, if you were to chose 5 funds & 1 bond fund to be in forever, what would they be?

I'm thinking:

- A Reit fund

- small cap fund

- spy fund

- emerging market fund

- developed international fund

- 30 year bond fund

Any opinions?
Click to expand...
It's funny because after the election, my one goal (growth) quickly morphed into my new goal of retention. I'm about as pessimistic as you can get on Trump and his effect on the US and its economy, so to each his own. I agree with your 2nd thought about being patient and jumping in once the markets correct.

With that said, its tough to argue against passive investing.so if you want to be aggressive and fully invest, get yourself some low-cost index funds (small cap, emerging markets, however many you like) and ride them. But I'd steer clear of bonds for the next many years, myself. 

 
General Malaise said:
Funny.  I took a very small position in Uranium Participation Fund on 12/28.  I haven't touched uranium in years.  But, we got some good insight that might possibly move price, but I have little conviction and consider this a rental with little patience.
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Kazakhs confirmed a 10% cut to production.  Uranium stocks all up nicely.  I'd say @St. Louis Bob had pretty good timing.

 
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pecorino said:
If you listened to the presser today, you'll get a better sense of why I am running for cash and gold. This cannot end well for the US.
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I didn't get to hear it but I heard he said some stuff about pharma "getting away with murder" that caused the IBB to crash. 

 
fantasycurse42 said:
I mentioned this a few months back, I had hired someone to trade an account for me. Started off really well, guy was up about 5% in 6 weeks, however I hated his style and was never comfortable, he felt careless - should've trusted my gut, I fired him today after a loss of about 4% of the account, basically the guy lost 9% in the last 2 weeks, a net of about 4% out of my pocket.

Anyways, I've made a decision - I have no imminent expenses and nothing on the horizon, I have one goal - growth. I was up in the air about just investing every dollar I have into SPY and never thinking about it again, recession/expansion/whatever. With where the S&P is, my plan was to just start dollar cost averaging into it an equal amount, every month (or quarter) until eternity.

My 2nd thought is being more patient and waiting for a recession, where I would initially invest 50% of savings and then dollar cost average until forever.

I'm looking for this to be aggressive, so I won't have more than 15-20% fixed income. Instead of 100% SPY, if you were to chose 5 funds & 1 bond fund to be in forever, what would they be?

I'm thinking:

- A Reit fund

- small cap fund

- spy fund

- emerging market fund

- developed international fund

- 30 year bond fund

Any opinions?
Click to expand...
portfoliocharts.com

Big fan of the Merriman Ultimate allocation.

 
Took a real roll of the dice here - think the fundamental picture for Natural Gas is tightening... Bought 8 calls for 17 cents of March NG at a strike of $3.5

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Took a real roll of the dice here - think the fundamental picture for Natural Gas is tightening... Bought 8 calls for 17 cents of March NG at a strike of $3.5
Click to expand...
Idk about that. Feels like spring in the middle of January here...

 
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