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Stock Thread (5 Viewers)

I don't think we're at a bottom for the things that have already been pounded. I own many of them, so I feel everyone's pain.

Like Todem, I have a little dry powder still, and I'm determined to get a better entry point on whatever I decide than I did on FLGT.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
My son got a share of RBLX stock for his 7th birthday last year.  Price was $85.  It ran up into the 130's not long after and he told me he wanted to sell it.  He said it'd gone up too fast.  I was trying to teach him about patience and long term holding rather than timing the market, so I told him he couldn't sell it.

That lesson is not going super well so far, lol.
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Depends on your perspective.  I think he taught you a great lesson.

 
David Dodds said:
From the cover of a falling stock market, we might be witnessing the start of the great rise of Gamestop's stock today.

I offer these bullet points:

  • Their NFT marketplace is close to launch. Creators owe final artwork on Monday suggesting this launches next week.
  • Ryan Cohen's standstill is over. He can add more shares.
  • There is a gamma train in play for today. If the price hits about $135 - watch out.
  • Federal Holiday on Monday would give shorts less time to cover on Call Options
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This is normally where I would laugh at this post.

Instead I'll just say hey Bass look at the scoreboard.

 
Nugget said:
Yes on Schwab. I’m only $1350 upside down and I’m up on the trade. I’ll square up next week or sell something. 
 
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Figured.

Schwab seems to do everything they can to let yourself use that margin.  One example is the quantity to buy defaults to 100 shares.

 
David Dodds said:
From the cover of a falling stock market, we might be witnessing the start of the great rise of Gamestop's stock today.

I offer these bullet points:

  • Their NFT marketplace is close to launch. Creators owe final artwork on Monday suggesting this launches next week.
  • Ryan Cohen's standstill is over. He can add more shares.
  • There is a gamma train in play for today. If the price hits about $135 - watch out.
  • Federal Holiday on Monday would give shorts less time to cover on Call Options
Click to expand...
I may throw a gamble in on TUES  :hifive:

 
eoMMan said:
So at $17…..buy?

All it takes is for them to wake up and scale back some of their spending, right?
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Their CEO was also on CNBC yesterday. Talked about their long-term outlook, and how everything was steady as she goes from his perspective. Stock prices fluctuate yada yada.

Customer acquisition is where it's at for the whole industry, making money is for suckers.

 
Todem said:
Cheap based on future growth, sales to earnings, price to earnings and again the revenue growth and margins are really oversold. 

We can say the market is vastly overpriced compared to 5 years ago......10 years ago.....100 years ago. 

It is about forward looking on companies. Always about forward looking and future growth and revenues. 

Long term.....there is a ton of value in Mega Cap and large cap tech. No two ways about it. 

I don’t see that same value in Industrials, Staples, Utilities, Oil etc.....not at all. 

Yet.
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But how much of that growth was already priced in/pulled forward? Again, it's STILL up 1000% over the last 5 years. Also, how much is it going to grow in the future? The law of large numbers and all, companies aren't going to keep growing at huge clips forever, and the reason it's gotten creamed recently is because they're saying growth is expected to slow.

2 big points I want to make:

This is more a comment on the common "man, this thing has gotten crushed" posts, implying that it must be "cheap" because it recently was much higher. You typically don't make that argument.

Also, I'm not picking on SHOP specifically (I actually like it at these levels), just using as an example of your original post that I quoted that people have a very short term view, which applies both ways. Yes, it's gotten destroyed recently, but looking at a 3 or 5 year chart gives a very different perspective than looking at a 3 or 5 month one. Same goes for many of these high growth names.

I guess my point is that we have to look beyond recent stock price action to determine what a stock is "worth". We've all fallen victim to the "if you liked it at 500 you must love it at 450" in the past so just wanted to share. Sometimes I think that's all people look at when making buy/sell decisions and they just assume the highs are justified but the sell offs aren't.

 
humpback said:
But how much of that growth was already priced in/pulled forward? Again, it's STILL up 1000% over the last 5 years. Also, how much is it going to grow in the future? The law of large numbers and all, companies aren't going to keep growing at huge clips forever, and the reason it's gotten creamed recently is because they're saying growth is expected to slow.

2 big points I want to make:

This is more a comment on the common "man, this thing has gotten crushed" posts, implying that it must be "cheap" because it recently was much higher. You typically don't make that argument.

Also, I'm not picking on SHOP specifically (I actually like it at these levels), just using as an example of your original post that I quoted that people have a very short term view, which applies both ways. Yes, it's gotten destroyed recently, but looking at a 3 or 5 year chart gives a very different perspective than looking at a 3 or 5 month one. Same goes for many of these high growth names.

I guess my point is that we have to look beyond recent stock price action to determine what a stock is "worth". We've all fallen victim to the "if you liked it at 500 you must love it at 450" in the past so just wanted to share. Sometimes I think that's all people look at when making buy/sell decisions and they just assume the highs are justified but the sell offs aren't.
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I think there is more value to the growth a company like SHOP has made in the last 5 years than just matching revenue to stock price.  Yes, the stock price is up 1000%, and revenue is up 900% and they've gone from operating at a loss to making a consistent profit.  I think those things justify a 1000% increase in stock price.

But that's just on the surface.  Where the company is now I think justifies much more.  Because 5 years ago SHOP was just one of many players in their space.  Now they are the king of that space, they've essentially won it, and we are just waiting for the space to grow where it is projected.

GOOGL may have been at 1000% when it killed off the last of the search engine competitors and became the go-to in their field, but really that was just the start because that just guaranteed they were going to get the biggest piece of the search engine and advertising pie as it continued to grow.

SHOP is no GOOGL as a company, but I think that's kind of where they are in their space.  5 years ago when people were starting up a web store there were 1000 options and maybe some of them would use SHOP.  Now when someone wants to spin up an easy to use web store SHOP is practically a given.  It's just a matter of more and more shopping spend continuing to move online.  We've now basically guaranteed that SHOP will be a major benefactor of that move, whereas 5 years ago we were uncertain if it would be SHOP that got to capture that growth in the market or magento or one of a bunch of others.

 
Here is the schedule of stock market holidays for 2022:

HolidayDate

Martin Luther King Jr. DayMonday, Jan. 17, 2022

President's DayMonday, Feb. 21, 2022

Good FridayFriday, April 15, 2022
(bond markets close at 12p EST)

Memorial DayMonday, May 30, 2022

Juneteenth (observed)Monday, June 20, 2022

Independence DayMonday, July 4, 2022

Labor DayMonday, Sept. 5, 2022

Thanksgiving DayMonday, Nov. 24, 2022

Black FridayFriday, Nov. 25, 2022
(stock market closes at 2p EST)

Christmas (observed)Monday, Dec. 26, 2022

 
The question now will be to when start shifting back out of cash into stocks.  Did a decent job moving to 2/3rds cash close to the top, but getting back in is tricky.  Sitting at 1/3rd stock funds and 2/3rds bond funds currently.  

Assuming the market is down big today, I may start to nibble back in.  But everything just feels like the market has more to go down, but this market has been crazy the last 10 years. 

 
James Daulton said:
The question now will be to when start shifting back out of cash into stocks.  Did a decent job moving to 2/3rds cash close to the top, but getting back in is tricky.  Sitting at 1/3rd stock funds and 2/3rds bond funds currently.  

Assuming the market is down big today, I may start to nibble back in.  But everything just feels like the market has more to go down, but this market has been crazy the last 10 years. 
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Congrats of a bold call and correct call.

Much better to be in too early than too late.  One prominent FBG sold his stocks near the bottom of the Covid bear market and never got back in.

 
DOCN release some earnings early (reports 2/24) and beat?  Seemed to be some decent buying activity premarket and holding on for now.  

 
Does anybody know if there was some bit on Fox News today about a stock market crash? My dad just called me wanting to panic sell everything. 

 
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