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Stock Thread (12 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
Punxsutawney Phil
Footballguy
These stocks have sucked but Verizon has those home 5g things that look promising. They could do to home internet what cell phones did to landlines.
GoBirds
Footballguy
I added both a couple months back as their upside was capped in the run up I’m hoping for less downside in this bear and there’s a dividend. Thanks guys.
Gopher State
Footballguy
I like VZ. I think it is cheap right now, it took a hit when Buffet sold all of his shares a while back. I do own VZ, and would consider adding more at 48.00.
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
Ridgeback
Footballguy
stinkzmagee
Footballguy
For those of you thinking we’ve got a lot more downside left in this market, are you expecting a big flush that impacts the whole market, to varying degrees? I need to look back at 2020 but if I recall correctly, the panic selling was pretty much across the board with no sector unscathed.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
I think there is more downside in the market—but I don’t think it’s going to be a free fall with a v-shaped recovery back up. I think the market will bounce around and there will be multiple bottoms. People can argue that inflation has peaked or is close to peaking—but I think the reality is that inflation is going to be high for a while. It tends to be sticky. Companies tend to raise prices very quickly but when it comes to reducing them—they don’t tend to be as swift.Also—I think it’s a matter of time that the job market and unemployment goes from a position of strength to being mediocre at best. Demand destruction will hurt the earnings of companies and you will see companies looking to lower their costs and reduce their workforces.
With that said—I don’t want to come across as being the ultimate pessimist as I’m not. If you have a long term horizon—and have excess cash on the sidelines—it’s not a bad idea to incrementally get into some really good companies at what will end up looking like a bargain in 3-5 years. Secondly—this demand destruction is occurring just as supply chains are improving. Because companies are literally receiving orders/parts for stuff they ordered months or even a year ago—this dynamic could bring play a part in expediting lower prices. Companies will have to lower prices to rid themselves of excess inventory in a demand depleted market. While this might not look good for their earnings temporarily— it could help with inflation and it could make any recession that we feel as a result of it a fairly shallow one. Fingers crossed.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
Today is going to be a memorable one.
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
David Dodds
Administrator
I think major fallout is still coming across all sectors.
- China's Evergrande officially defaults on Friday and this has ramifications to Treasuries, Tether (for crypto, etc).
- MBS is in freefall. No one wants to loan money for houses right now without a handle on where inflation is going. That will stall the housing market.
- The talk is inflation, but the bond market is broken right now. Equities will likely crater until the bond market stabilizes.
- High oil costs means it's going to cost all companies more. The consumer can't just absorb it all. Savings levels for retail are at all-time lows.
- Earnings are going to miss everywhere and a wave of lower guidance is likely coming soon across all stocks. Right now companies are guiding higher than they were on January 1st of this year. That's insanely wrong.
- With 2 year yields rising to 3+%, some money is going to leave equities in favor of bonds. I expect the market will reflect lower acceptable price/earnings ratios as well.
- I am predicting a 2008 level event soon with the S&P bottoming near 2,600 in a few months. The Fed may need to intervene to restore confidence in the markets.
- Once the selloff starts, hedge funds are going to start falling like dominoes as they used leverage (when interest rates were near 0% to acquire their lofty positions). They can't all simply reverse their positions.
- And against this backdrop, I think the safest stock to own right now is GameStop. Because when the hedge funds start collapsing, someone is on the hook for the massive shares that have been illegally shorted through options, swaps, and naked shorting. Plus GameStop is close to being a game-changing company in Web 3.0 technologies with their smart wallet, NFT marketplace, and associated blockchain technologies.
David Dodds
Administrator
Yes, everything will be in a freefall except Gamestop.
Actually, other over-shorted stocks will also rise, but IMO GameStop is the best of the bunch with zero debt and a new outlook.
General Malaise
Footballguy
75 bps
SFBayDuck
Footballguy
McBokonon
Footballguy
Let’s see if Powell says anything that causes a stir. Kind of hope he just says, “Might raise it .50 next time, might do .75. Might do 1.00 and we might do nothing at all. Might just stick my #### in the mashed potatoes, suckas. J-Pow OUT, biznatches!”And the market responds with a
SFBayDuck
Footballguy
Why is 2% inflation the goal? Why not 3%? Why can't the fed come out and say "we think 2-3% is appropriate, and that will guide our actions going forward," which lets them focus on just getting it down to 3%. It seems they're likely to overshoot at some point and take what might be a shallow and quick recession and turn it into a more substantial Recession.
General Malaise
Footballguy
kevzilla
Footballguy
In 2018, I bought some IVV and IEMG for my 'orphan' account. I have since made this a purely speculative enterprise, but left these two diversified ETFs. I'm selling them at the close to raise cash for when this thing turns around, as eventually it must.
Up 45% on IVV, down 11% on IEMG. Don't care.
Full disclosure: In the taxable, rainy-day account, I bought three shares of AMZN at $3341 that are now 60 shares at $107. I was a lot better at this during a long bull market.
Up 45% on IVV, down 11% on IEMG. Don't care.
Full disclosure: In the taxable, rainy-day account, I bought three shares of AMZN at $3341 that are now 60 shares at $107. I was a lot better at this during a long bull market.
Shula-holic
Footballguy
Getting itchy to get a little more in at these levels. I put a little to work off my year end distribution I took from my S Corp in January. I put a little into the market and a little into the Blackstone REIT, BREIT, which has actually done pretty well. Obviously not well enough to offset the market downturn.
It's just feeling like it's not a bad time to average down some and put some of the cash to work I left on the sideline at that time. I'm not trying to pick a bottom, but given our inflation outlook it doesn't make a lot of sense to be too heavy on sidelined cash, especially after the market has had a chance to digest where we are on inflation right now.
It's just feeling like it's not a bad time to average down some and put some of the cash to work I left on the sideline at that time. I'm not trying to pick a bottom, but given our inflation outlook it doesn't make a lot of sense to be too heavy on sidelined cash, especially after the market has had a chance to digest where we are on inflation right now.
Phil Elliott
Footballguy
Market already responded last couple days on the leak that it would be .75SFBayDuck said:And the market responds with a
Phil Elliott
Footballguy
This is a very exact science.SFBayDuck said:
Gopher State
Footballguy
I think being cautious until we seethe July CIP report, might not be a bad idea.Shula-holic said:
Feels like we may be entering a short term rally, but that could change to the downside with a bad July report, just my humble opinion.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
im sitting at about 50/50 stocks/cash. Some of that cash I’ve starting nibbling at bonds. Feet to the fire, I think we have one more big leg down. It won’t be inflation though causing it but instead earnings estimates and earnings coming down.Shula-holic said:
Steeler
Footballguy
Desert_Power
Footballguy
Yeah. Not a particularly dovish press conference, I'm guess this plays out similar to how the March hike did.
Shula-holic
Footballguy
This could well be correct. I'm not really trying to time a bottom but I am a bit heavy in cash. While I've certainly lost some due to inflation, it's been better sitting and waiting than in the market. Longer term though I'll likely be a loser if I don't reallocate some of that a bit. I've always been a bit heavy cash and so this is an opportunity to rebalance some. It's hard not to sell some rental properties right now as well. The problem there is having a spot for those funds. Those have been the biggest winners in the past couple years.
STEADYMOBBIN 22
Footballguy
For a guy who knows nothing about his 401k other than he filled out some paperwork, chose age appropriate risk factors and dumps a little more than the company matches…
1-what can he do to mitigate the losses? Is this a just sit back and don’t pay attention? (This gentlemen has 20 years (or less) until retirement with a high 6 figure pension, spouse has exact same situation.)
2-Will there come a time that this gentlemen should start dumping significantly more money into the market to catch the ride back up?
3)Thank you in advance.
1-what can he do to mitigate the losses? Is this a just sit back and don’t pay attention? (This gentlemen has 20 years (or less) until retirement with a high 6 figure pension, spouse has exact same situation.)
2-Will there come a time that this gentlemen should start dumping significantly more money into the market to catch the ride back up?
3)Thank you in advance.
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The Man With No Name
Footballguy
DOW implied open - $460.
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2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
You have 20 years, not only should you not sweat it, buy quality names from @Todemlist.For a guy who knows nothing about his 401k other than he filled out some paperwork, chose age appropriate risk factors and dumps a little more than the company matches…
1-what can he do to mitigate the losses? Is this a just sit back and don’t pay attention? (This gentlemen has 20 years (or less) until retirement with a high 6 figure pension, spouse has exact same situation.)
2-Will there come a time that this gentlemen should start dumping significantly more money into the market to catch the ride back up?
3)Thank you in advance.
identikit
Footballguy
beef
Footballguy
1. Don't mitigate losses or time the market with a 401k. Keep contributing and don't pay attention.For a guy who knows nothing about his 401k other than he filled out some paperwork, chose age appropriate risk factors and dumps a little more than the company matches…
1-what can he do to mitigate the losses? Is this a just sit back and don’t pay attention? (This gentlemen has 20 years (or less) until retirement with a high 6 figure pension, spouse has exact same situation.)
2-Will there come a time that this gentlemen should start dumping significantly more money into the market to catch the ride back up?
3)Thank you in advance.
2. NOW!
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1- every situation is unique, but if you have a 2 high 6 figure pensions in addition to this 401k, you'll be fine. Just keep socking it away.For a guy who knows nothing about his 401k other than he filled out some paperwork, chose age appropriate risk factors and dumps a little more than the company matches…
1-what can he do to mitigate the losses? Is this a just sit back and don’t pay attention? (This gentlemen has 20 years (or less) until retirement with a high 6 figure pension, spouse has exact same situation.)
2-Will there come a time that this gentlemen should start dumping significantly more money into the market to catch the ride back up?
3)Thank you in advance.
2- Not unless you have a crystal ball. Trying to time the bottom by buying aggressively is the same as trying to time the top by selling, and no one can do either. Again, with 2 large pensions in your back pocket why take the risk (unless you like to gamble and don't mind if you lose it)? No one can predict the future and things can change quickly, but there's really no logical reason why the market is going to snap back sharply this time IMO. Conditions are very, very different than what they were for the previous "V" moves.
You decide whether you want to pay attention. Personally, I like to know one way or another, and can stomach seeing losses but everyone is different. If you have the discipline not to panic sell, then there is no reason to put your head in the sand. In any case, keep investing (dollar cost averaging is your friend here--you're buying more at lower levels) and you may even want to ratchet up your investments, as you said to ride it back up.For a guy who knows nothing about his 401k other than he filled out some paperwork, chose age appropriate risk factors and dumps a little more than the company matches…
1-what can he do to mitigate the losses? Is this a just sit back and don’t pay attention? (This gentlemen has 20 years (or less) until retirement with a high 6 figure pension, spouse has exact same situation.)
2-Will there come a time that this gentlemen should start dumping significantly more money into the market to catch the ride back up?
3)Thank you in advance.
I posted here a few days ago that I thought we were at a point of capitulation which is to say that people are throwing in the towel, disgusted at what they've seen Some posters here, maybe many of them, think that was an early call and I cannot quibble with them. Timing the bottom is impossible. But you can see with your eyes (out of that sand, remember) that there are lots of names on sale right now so "dumping significantly more money into the market" may be a great strategy for you at this point. With a time horizon of 20 years and what appears to be steady work, you can be aggressive in times like these.
David Dodds
Administrator
I entered into a BBBY position today at $5.99. I expect it to be carried higher when GME squeezes. Plus the assets they have with Buy Buy Baby can be sold off to pay off their debt. Another stock with minimal shares that was cellar-boxed hard the last few years. They have a corrupt board of directors (and are managing the company horribly), but I am hopeful Ryan Cohen getting a few of his people onboard can disrupt them sinking this company.
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
50 UDOW at $45.16
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Wow. Only one bad day away from the pre pandemic high on the Nasdaq
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
Jeremy Siegel thinks we are oversold by 18-20%. He's probably forgotten more than I've ever learned. I'm listening to him and accumulating short term UDOW (3x Bull).
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
I bought some short term tech today in anticipation of a bounce soon. I’ll sell it into a bear market rally when it comes. Still think we have another big leg down as imo earnings haven’t come down enough.
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
He's also apparently forgotten to take his meds.
*if he thinks that, I haven't seen that from him myself
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
I watched the interview, didn't hear anything about 18-20% oversold but I know he thinks we're closer to the bottom than the top.
David Dodds
Administrator
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