KGB
Footballguy
I hear ya. we shall see aprilShorted NVDA around $800
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Stock Thread (9 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
Todem
Footballguy
You better know when to close out that short.....my advice don't get too greedy on it. The stock is a true money printer with a forward multiple in the high 20's.I hear ya. we shall see aprilShorted NVDA around $800
Swim with caution.
hooter311
Footballguy
And we're back!
$btc
Getting away from high fee GBTC, moving some of that to IBIT but mostly I want companys with btc on the balance sheet.
My roth IRA currently sitting.
65% MSTR
30% MARA
2% HUT
2% WULF
1% IBIT
The demand these etfs are creating are running out of supply fast.
In Saylor we trust.
Don't do what Im doing but know the confidence is there!
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
This feels risky—even though I will fully admit that I have no experience with shorting or options trading. I know that shorts basically mean that you are betting for the stock to go down. Is there a timeline or date when this $800 plateau pays off or loses? Also, is there a total number of NVDA stocks that your bet covers? Genuinely curious.Shorted NVDA around $800
Welp, got rid of MRVL. It had been streaking will all the chip stocks. Only 69 shares from when they bought Inphi back in 2021. Respective 65% return but earnings coming up this week and last earnings wasn’t good. Their P/S was up to 12 and their revenue is forecast to be down this year and 2025 revenue is only 3% above their 2023 revenue. Seems pricy for the actual growth expected and they are a fringe AI story. Was never in love with them but still a decent return for 3 years and a few months.
Just sold my GBTC. What’s the best BTC ETF? I am just going to move it a different ETF but feel good that it was a good day to sell it already up 5%.
And we're back!
$btc
Getting away from high fee GBTC, moving some of that to IBIT but mostly I want companys with btc on the balance sheet.
My roth IRA currently sitting.
65% MSTR
30% MARA
2% HUT
2% WULF
1% IBIT
The demand these etfs are creating are running out of supply fast.
In Saylor we trust.
Don't do what Im doing but know the confidence is there!
McBokonon
Footballguy
Fidelity’s is free until August and I think only 0.25 afterwards. I know you use Fidelity.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
lol
"I thought about it, and even though it's over, I'm gonna tell my wife about the affair."
"I thought about it, and even though it's over, I'm gonna tell my wife about the affair."
Capella
Footballguy
Normally I wear protection, but then I thought, “When am I gonna make it back to Haiti?”Shorted NVDA around $800
hooter311
Footballguy
Imo ibit, fbtc, arkb all very solid options.
NajehHejan
Footballguy
NajehHejan
Footballguy
This Jonah Lupton guy is gaga over TMDX. I read their recent earnings report and call, all very positive. Gonna start a position today
“ I believe $TMDX has more upside over the next 2-3 years than $CELH and $SMCI and almost every other stock that I own or follow.
I believe $TMDX has at least 250% upside over the next 3-5 years. I'll do a longer thread in the next couple days which outlines my investment thesis and my financial projections/estimates.
There is not another medtech stock on the planet that has the growth and profit potential that $TMDX has over the next 3-5 years.”
“ I believe $TMDX has more upside over the next 2-3 years than $CELH and $SMCI and almost every other stock that I own or follow.
I believe $TMDX has at least 250% upside over the next 3-5 years. I'll do a longer thread in the next couple days which outlines my investment thesis and my financial projections/estimates.
There is not another medtech stock on the planet that has the growth and profit potential that $TMDX has over the next 3-5 years.”
McBokonon
Footballguy
I’m bullish on TMDX but take Jonah with a grain of salt. He’s part of my fintwit setup on Twitter so I see his stuff. He really started getting a following during the 2020-2021 euphoria and was just as gaga over absolute garbage that collapsed. But he does hit on some high flyers early (like TMDX and CELH) so I like to see his book for potential ideas to research.
I like it as well, just seemed to go up a bunch every time I thought about adding. I bought some more today but it really was a transfer of a stock I sold. I still feel a wee bit skittish. I mean SMCI is up 25% because it joined the S&P. Wee bit frothy.
Chadstroma
Footballguy
Some more info on UWM
They reported a loss which apparently was due to writing down the value of servicing rights.
Rocket took a larger loss and is laying off 3,800 employees.
The broker market share of mortgages is now at 24.3% which is the highest since 2009. For reference, 2022 = 19.7%, 2020 = 18.2%, 2016 = 16.3%, 2013 = 14.3%. UWM has no in house originating and the majority of their loans come from brokers.
They reported a loss which apparently was due to writing down the value of servicing rights.
Rocket took a larger loss and is laying off 3,800 employees.
The broker market share of mortgages is now at 24.3% which is the highest since 2009. For reference, 2022 = 19.7%, 2020 = 18.2%, 2016 = 16.3%, 2013 = 14.3%. UWM has no in house originating and the majority of their loans come from brokers.
JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
TGT beats profit expectations. Up 8% pre-market.
McBokonon
Footballguy
$COST, my largest holding, reports this week. Every time I go to Costco it makes me want to buy more, but every time I open my account I see how much I have and that it’s trading at 50X forward earnings, I hyperventilate a little. I want to trim but I haven’t talked myself into it yet.
urbanhack
Fight The Power!
I'm already up 35% but of course I didn't buy much.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
I posted in August to be weary of stocks/companies that have meaningful exposure in China. I got out of Tesla shortly after making that post. I’m open to getting back in Tesla, but unless it comes down moderately from here, I’ll be waiting. I don’t think we know the full extent of how bad the economy in China really is. The CCP cooks the books and manipulates the numbers, but my sources in China seem to indicate that things seem far worse than what is being reported.
hooter311
Footballguy
We are in a very crazy time for btc because there is no way supply can keep up with the daily demand these etfs are creating. Right now they are being slightly offset but the gbtc outflows but I'm pretty sure most of that money is staying in btc in lower fee etfs. We are seeing net inflows of around $500 million a day into exchanges, with only about $2.4 billion of btc available.
We are 7 weeks out from the "halvening" which drops new supply to a measly 450 coins a day. Thats what makes it scary to be in the miners right now but I'm confident the price will offset it. $Hut is working on a 2nd layer system that would allow miners to earn revenue on staking.
Wall street almost needs btc in the 6 figures so they can keep selling the crap out of their etfs.
So much money still sitting on the sidelines with the wirehouses like lynch and schaub having nothing to push. MSTR should weasel its way into the sp500 next rebalancing (3rd friday this month). Thats going to put btc in every retirement account in country. They'll find a way to roll that over into more btc on the balance sheet.
I'm hoping for a gme style squeeze on $mstr. I'll follow Saylor anywhere. My target price is $3000 in the next 9 months.
We are 7 weeks out from the "halvening" which drops new supply to a measly 450 coins a day. Thats what makes it scary to be in the miners right now but I'm confident the price will offset it. $Hut is working on a 2nd layer system that would allow miners to earn revenue on staking.
Wall street almost needs btc in the 6 figures so they can keep selling the crap out of their etfs.
So much money still sitting on the sidelines with the wirehouses like lynch and schaub having nothing to push. MSTR should weasel its way into the sp500 next rebalancing (3rd friday this month). Thats going to put btc in every retirement account in country. They'll find a way to roll that over into more btc on the balance sheet.
I'm hoping for a gme style squeeze on $mstr. I'll follow Saylor anywhere. My target price is $3000 in the next 9 months.
hooter311
Footballguy
I should also add that at $1200, $mstr is already valued at btc being priced at 120k.
They currently report holdings of 193,000 btc which amounts to about 1/99 per share of stock.
With only a $16 billion market cap and nobody having a chance at owning more btc then them, once they figure out how to make money staking it we are looking at a $200 billion company within next 5 years.
They currently report holdings of 193,000 btc which amounts to about 1/99 per share of stock.
With only a $16 billion market cap and nobody having a chance at owning more btc then them, once they figure out how to make money staking it we are looking at a $200 billion company within next 5 years.
Steeler
Footballguy
Where were you a week ago
I don't know jack about investing, but the MSTR chart looks pretty scary for a purchase right now.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
I did not buy enough DAVE
hooter311
Footballguy
I had to log out of my account for my personal sanity on 8/2/21. I put all of my kitty into GBTC, MARA, and MSTR and forgot about it. Told myself I wouldnt look until btc hit 60k again it somehow worked out.Where were you a week ago
I don't know jack about investing, but the MSTR chart looks pretty scary for a purchase right now.
So glad I missed the worst of the ride down!
hooter311
Footballguy
Where were you a week ago
I don't know jack about investing, but the MSTR chart looks pretty scary for a purchase right now.
Also, I'd probably keep on eye on it and look for it to lose 3 days in a row or something and buy on the third day.
I like it just as much long term as I do short term.
Todem
Footballguy
If you believe in your heart of hearts like I do that it's a car company first and foremost......it's not even close to cheap enough.
If it falls below 150 which to me is a key support level you could have a short term trade.
I will leave it at that.
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McBokonon
Footballguy
$CRWD
23% seems a little excessive. I have to imagine they give most of that back tomorrow, but still another great quarter.
NajehHejan
Footballguy
I know a decent size red day like today is not out of the ordinary after the insane runs recently but I have this odd feeling that today wasn’t just a profit taking day or cool down day but perhaps the start of a bigger correction. It feels like too much recent irrational exuberance and it’s time to pay the piper. Sadly I deployed a chunk of cash yesterday at the worst possible time. Just gotta ride it out and weather the storm.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Inflation report in a week, i believe. Probably a bit of a roller coaster til then.
It’s funny to see the froth happen before your eyes. Right now, PLTR’s market cap is about to go up $4-5B for a multi-year $180M contract (revenue, profit will be a portion of that) and the press release mentions pulling in other defense contractors products. PLTR has to keep signing these type of deals as part of their normal course of business. If they don’t sign any new contracts their revenue will fall like a rock. I understand the PR for PLTR as they want to use it to potentially bring in more new business but it’s not like they said hey, we are going to beat our 2024 number by 10% more than expected because we didn’t think we’d win this at all.
Very likely. I think AI stocks are just loaded with retail investors right now. The moves are crazy. Not complaining even though I don’t own NVDA directly.
Todem
Footballguy
God no.
Hot stock? Yeah. But they are proving it on the top and bottom lines and future guidance and where we are in the "AI" cycle.
There is a bubble forming....no doubt. But NVDA are the ones selling all the pick axes in the gold rush if you get my drift.
Capella
Footballguy
Oh I was just being funny. I’m in love with them.
General Malaise
Footballguy
I'm just sitting over here slumming it with AMD.
Anybody pay attention to gold anymore or nah? $2,143/Oz. Yowsers.
Klimtology
Footballguy
Todem
Did I get back into the market at the wrong time?
I just went 2/3 in.
Did I get back into the market at the wrong time?
I just went 2/3 in.
SFBayDuck
Footballguy
I do, I do! I hold some via ETFs. Pretty small allocation now, but I've been digging into it recently as I look for ways to optimize my portfolio for higher safe withdrawal rates and a reduction in sequence of return risk when I transition to that phase (hopefully in the next few years). It's near-zero correlation to stocks and low correlation to treasuries along with an annualized avg return of 7-8% over the last 50 years seem to make it a good fit for a diversified portfolio that (theoretically) should have reduced volatility and shallower draw downs.
Ridgeback
Footballguy
I've had a fixed position of
I've had a fixed amount of gold in my Roth for years. Not sure why anymore, honestly. The return vs fixed income at the moment is ****. But then it pales in comparisons to other losers like the huge chunk of TLT I still have. FML. All-weather portfolio that works 80% of the time. I got into it during the 20% it doesn't.
I'm just sitting over here slumming it with AMD.
Anybody pay attention to gold anymore or nah? $2,143/Oz. Yowsers.
Klimtology
Footballguy
Todem
Footballguy
Long term absolutely not. Don't worry about 1 year or even 2. Your time horizon should be at least 5 years at a minimum if you want to into the market. Anything less than that it can get hairy.Todem
Did I get back into the market at the wrong time?
I just went 2/3 in.
Todem
Footballguy
I have an old saying about gold.I've had a fixed position of
I've had a fixed amount of gold in my Roth for years. Not sure why anymore, honestly. The return vs fixed income at the moment is ****. But then it pales in comparisons to other losers like the huge chunk of TLT I still have. FML. All-weather portfolio that works 80% of the time. I got into it during the 20% it doesn't.
I'm just sitting over here slumming it with AMD.
Anybody pay attention to gold anymore or nah? $2,143/Oz. Yowsers.
When it's the price of a cheap suit buy.
When it's the price of an expensive suit....sell.
I would be selling it here.
Todem
Footballguy
Anything that has to do with AI. Everyone is now chasing returns in any stocks that claim they are in the AI arms race.
Todem
Footballguy
I should also add the market is highly concentrated this year in this rally.
Very few stocks are carrying all the weight of the returns. There are a lot of sectors lagging and plenty of great companies under performing. I have stated several times in the last 6 months that this has not been a broad based rally. And it still is not.
I expect a decent pull back here between now and the summer. So don't get spooked with a 7-10% pullback. By year end we will march upward again and that catalyst will be a soft landing in the economy and the first rate cut coming sometime in 4th quarter (which is what we talked about last year).
The new cyclical bull market in my opinion starts year end and into 2025.
