Strength of 2011 rookies vs 2012 rookies (1 Viewer)

[matttyl]

Overall, how strong will the back end of the 1st round of a rookie draft be this year? Right now I have the #10 and #11 rookie picks, but I really don't have any immediate needs and don't really like what's coming out this year after the top 5-6 guys, none of which will still be there at 10.

If another owner in my league wants to give me a 1st in 2012 (which since we don't know what pick that will end up being could be anywhere from 1-10) for either the #10 or #11 pick this year, is it worth it? Will next year be a (much) better rookie draft class, or should I just roll with whatever falls to me?

 

[Dawg Pound 69]

It's too early to project strength of 1.11 THIS year until NFL draft. So it's impossible to project quality of 2012 late 1st. I would try to get another bump (maybe from round 4 to rd 3) as a throwin. Unless his team is stacked, chances are the 2012 pick will be higher than pick 11. So your 2011 pick 11 plus your 4th, for his 2012 1st and his 3rd.

 

[moderated]

it's almost always a good idea to trade a late current 1st for an unknown future 1st. The future 1st has potential to end up a lot higher and at worst you end up with a late 1st the next year (a push).

the reward is far greater then the risk dealing the late 1st in the current year.

it's not a bad trade for the other team either if they like someone available and think their team is going to be good, but they are risking a lot more.

 

[jdswan922]

typically, i don't make that trade straight up. even a late 1st rounder this year has more value than an unknown pick next year. if he is throwing in another pick or player, then I say go ahead. I would trade a 2nd rounder for a 1st next year however.

 

[eaglesfan7]

The late picks this upcoming draft are looking pretty good actually. Some nice receivers out there for the pickings and you could always end up with a sleeper running back or a nice qb at ten or eleven. The only reason I would entertain trading it for a 2012 1st and 3rd or 4th is if you think your team will underperform in 2011.

 

[moderated]

even a late 1st rounder this year has more value than an unknown pick next year.

flawed logic.

 

[eaglesfan7]

even a late 1st rounder this year has more value than an unknown pick next year.

flawed logic.

I agree with "flawed logic" because an unknown 2012 always has the potential of being a top 5 pick and it has more value than your known 10 or 11.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Hankerson hasn't been picked yet in the rookie ranking poll at it is at pick 11. If you can get Hankerson at 11, I would rather have him now than gambling on next year.

Also, in RB-heavy leagues or RB-needy teams there will be lots of options at 1.11 this year, and usually that well dries up around 1.7 or 1.8.

Wait til you're on the clock to trade. All other theories are just theories.

 

[jdswan922]

even a late 1st rounder this year has more value than an unknown pick next year.

flawed logic.

I agree with "flawed logic" because an unknown 2012 always has the potential of being a top 5 pick and it has more value than your known 10 or 11.

A known quantity versus an unknown quantity has more value today. What you are refering to is "potential" value.

 

[BigJim®]

even a late 1st rounder this year has more value than an unknown pick next year.

flawed logic.

I agree with "flawed logic" because an unknown 2012 always has the potential of being a top 5 pick and it has more value than your known 10 or 11.

A known quantity versus an unknown quantity has more value today. What you are refering to is "potential" value.

It's not an unknown quantity. It's almost certain to be of greater value than what you're giving, which is all that matters. I'd strongluy consider it with a 1.11. I wouldn't consider it with a 1.8 because you aren't getting enough upside to give away that value for a season.

 

[Warhogs]

I traded 1.10 for a first next year of one of the weaker teams in my league so I am expecting it to be in the top 3 or 4. Just like you I had no major needs and thought it was worth it to swap it and wait a year believing the pick will be earlier than what mine was this year.

 

[Hoosier16]

If another owner in my league wants to give me a 1st in 2012 (which since we don't know what pick that will end up being could be anywhere from 1-10) for either the #10 or #11 pick this year, is it worth it? Will next year be a (much) better rookie draft class, or should I just roll with whatever falls to me?

If the 2012 pick is not from a completely stacked team, I would absolutely make that trade. Generally, I'd value this year's more than next year's pick. But in your example, the unknown potential value completely outweighs any time value.I made a trade a few years ago, giving up the 1.10 (12 team) for a following year 1st (from a team who just finished 3rd), expecting I'd get a slight increase the following year (1.06 - 1.10). Instead, I ended up with the 1.01. You just never know. A couple of injuries can devastate a team.

 

[moderated]

If another owner in my league wants to give me a 1st in 2012 (which since we don't know what pick that will end up being could be anywhere from 1-10) for either the #10 or #11 pick this year, is it worth it? Will next year be a (much) better rookie draft class, or should I just roll with whatever falls to me?

If the 2012 pick is not from a completely stacked team, I would absolutely make that trade. Generally, I'd value this year's more than next year's pick. But in your example, the unknown potential value completely outweighs any time value.I made a trade a few years ago, giving up the 1.10 (12 team) for a following year 1st (from a team who just finished 3rd), expecting I'd get a slight increase the following year (1.06 - 1.10). Instead, I ended up with the 1.01. You just never know. A couple of injuries can devastate a team.

I've seen preseason favorites end up as bottom 3 teams numerous times over the years.the current year 1.11 is 1.11, there is no way it can magically turn into a top 5 pick (where most of the value is). A future 1st can end up anywhere from the first pick to the last pick, and when getting that future pick for 1.11 there is basically no downside. Worst case scenario the future pick ends up 1.14 assuming a 14 team league, there is very very little difference in value between picks 1.10 and 1.14 so you don't even really lose much. Best case scenario the future pick ends up 1.01 - 1.03 and you end up winning the trade by a landslide.trading a current year late 1st for an unknown future 1st is almost never a bad move, unless in the rare instance the current years draft is disgustingly deep with elite talents and the following years looks weak or average.

 

[32 Counter Pass]

I traded a low #1 last year in two leagues and ended up with the first pick in both leagues this year.

At the time there wasn't a player that I really liked so my thinking was the odds were on my favor to end up with a higher pick.

 

[faux_bear]

I traded a low #1 last year in two leagues and ended up with the first pick in both leagues this year.At the time there wasn't a player that I really liked so my thinking was the odds were on my favor to end up with a higher pick.

There's a flipside to this. I made a similar trade last year and gave up the 13th pick (16 team league) that I turned into the 9th pick this year. well, that 13th pick ended up being Sam Bradford, and you'd bet your ### I'd take that trade back in a heartbeat if I could.

 

[moderated]

I traded a low #1 last year in two leagues and ended up with the first pick in both leagues this year.At the time there wasn't a player that I really liked so my thinking was the odds were on my favor to end up with a higher pick.

There's a flipside to this. I made a similar trade last year and gave up the 13th pick (16 team league) that I turned into the 9th pick this year. well, that 13th pick ended up being Sam Bradford, and you'd bet your ### I'd take that trade back in a heartbeat if I could.

you realize why that's a complete wrong way to look at it right?

 

[matttyl]

If another owner in my league wants to give me a 1st in 2012 (which since we don't know what pick that will end up being could be anywhere from 1-10) for either the #10 or #11 pick this year, is it worth it? Will next year be a (much) better rookie draft class, or should I just roll with whatever falls to me?

If the 2012 pick is not from a completely stacked team, I would absolutely make that trade. Generally, I'd value this year's more than next year's pick. But in your example, the unknown potential value completely outweighs any time value.I made a trade a few years ago, giving up the 1.10 (12 team) for a following year 1st (from a team who just finished 3rd), expecting I'd get a slight increase the following year (1.06 - 1.10). Instead, I ended up with the 1.01. You just never know. A couple of injuries can devastate a team.

I've seen preseason favorites end up as bottom 3 teams numerous times over the years.the current year 1.11 is 1.11, there is no way it can magically turn into a top 5 pick (where most of the value is). A future 1st can end up anywhere from the first pick to the last pick, and when getting that future pick for 1.11 there is basically no downside. Worst case scenario the future pick ends up 1.14 assuming a 14 team league, there is very very little difference in value between picks 1.10 and 1.14 so you don't even really lose much. Best case scenario the future pick ends up 1.01 - 1.03 and you end up winning the trade by a landslide.trading a current year late 1st for an unknown future 1st is almost never a bad move, unless in the rare instance the current years draft is disgustingly deep with elite talents and the following years looks weak or average.

I'm sorry I didn't put this in the original post, but it's only a 10 team league. The #10 pick is the last pick in the first round (mine, as I won the championship), and the #11 pick is the first pick in the 2nd round (which I traded for). I know the guys in my league, on draft day they will get all geeked up about some player, and they will still be there when I draft at #10 and #11, and I was thinking about just offering up the pick right there for their first rounder in 2012. Maybe one will bite, maybe 2 will. I could in theory trade both for 1st next year if two bite, and I'll go into next year with 3 of the top 10 picks (including my 1st next year), barring another trade. At absolute worst, that would be the 8-9-10 in a row.I was more concerned with the "quality" of this year's draft compared to who we think will be coming out next year.

 

[moderated]

If another owner in my league wants to give me a 1st in 2012 (which since we don't know what pick that will end up being could be anywhere from 1-10) for either the #10 or #11 pick this year, is it worth it? Will next year be a (much) better rookie draft class, or should I just roll with whatever falls to me?

If the 2012 pick is not from a completely stacked team, I would absolutely make that trade. Generally, I'd value this year's more than next year's pick. But in your example, the unknown potential value completely outweighs any time value.I made a trade a few years ago, giving up the 1.10 (12 team) for a following year 1st (from a team who just finished 3rd), expecting I'd get a slight increase the following year (1.06 - 1.10). Instead, I ended up with the 1.01. You just never know. A couple of injuries can devastate a team.

I've seen preseason favorites end up as bottom 3 teams numerous times over the years.the current year 1.11 is 1.11, there is no way it can magically turn into a top 5 pick (where most of the value is). A future 1st can end up anywhere from the first pick to the last pick, and when getting that future pick for 1.11 there is basically no downside. Worst case scenario the future pick ends up 1.14 assuming a 14 team league, there is very very little difference in value between picks 1.10 and 1.14 so you don't even really lose much. Best case scenario the future pick ends up 1.01 - 1.03 and you end up winning the trade by a landslide.trading a current year late 1st for an unknown future 1st is almost never a bad move, unless in the rare instance the current years draft is disgustingly deep with elite talents and the following years looks weak or average.

I'm sorry I didn't put this in the original post, but it's only a 10 team league. The #10 pick is the last pick in the first round (mine, as I won the championship), and the #11 pick is the first pick in the 2nd round (which I traded for). I know the guys in my league, on draft day they will get all geeked up about some player, and they will still be there when I draft at #10 and #11, and I was thinking about just offering up the pick right there for their first rounder in 2012. Maybe one will bite, maybe 2 will. I could in theory trade both for 1st next year if two bite, and I'll go into next year with 3 of the top 10 picks (including my 1st next year), barring another trade. At absolute worst, that would be the 8-9-10 in a row.I was more concerned with the "quality" of this year's draft compared to who we think will be coming out next year.

if you're in a 10 team league and can turn the 10th and 11th pick into 2012 firsts it's a no-brainer.we know enough at this point that the 2012 class will be on par with this years class, and likely filled with more then 3 top notch prospects that this class has. in the end the true value of the rookie draft is in those top notch elite prospects, so you can't go wrong flipping those picks for future 1sts that could net you those valuable elite prospects next year.

 

[RustyFA2]

If it is the last pick then I try to trade. Typically i try to get a 2nd rounder this year along with the 1st this year.

As far as knowing next years class is as good as this years? Not so fast. What happens if 4 QBs, 3 RBs, and 7 WRs go this year? It could happen. More likely 3-2-3 but until the draft you don't know.

 

[Hoosier16]

I was more concerned with the "quality" of this year's draft compared to who we think will be coming out next year.

There's no way to know the quality of a future draft class until the underclassmen declare, especially if you're trying to look 8-10 deep.. Look at this year for example. Everyone would have said Luck and Blackmon were for sure coming out. I think you have to base everything on the value of the pick rather than the value of the potential talent.We have a guy in our league who says next year's class is going to be the best. The problem is he says the same thing every year.

 

[moderated]

If it is the last pick then I try to trade. Typically i try to get a 2nd rounder this year along with the 1st this year.As far as knowing next years class is as good as this years? Not so fast. What happens if 4 QBs, 3 RBs, and 7 WRs go this year? It could happen. More likely 3-2-3 but until the draft you don't know.

you have people in your league who will not only give up their future 1st, but a 2nd in addition for the LAST pick in the current years 1st round???that is bizarre and if people repeatedly do that they will eventually end up with a horrible team.

 

[Warhogs]

If it is the last pick then I try to trade. Typically i try to get a 2nd rounder this year along with the 1st this year.As far as knowing next years class is as good as this years? Not so fast. What happens if 4 QBs, 3 RBs, and 7 WRs go this year? It could happen. More likely 3-2-3 but until the draft you don't know.

you have people in your league who will not only give up their future 1st, but a 2nd in addition for the LAST pick in the current years 1st round???that is bizarre and if people repeatedly do that they will eventually end up with a horrible team.

I agree. I would say that this suggested trade is highly unlikely to happen.

 

[Schirmdog]

I was more concerned with the "quality" of this year's draft compared to who we think will be coming out next year.

There's no way to know the quality of a future draft class until the underclassmen declare, especially if you're trying to look 8-10 deep.. Look at this year for example. Everyone would have said Luck and Blackmon were for sure coming out. I think you have to base everything on the value of the pick rather than the value of the potential talent.We have a guy in our league who says next year's class is going to be the best. The problem is he says the same thing every year.

I wish I had that guy in my league in 2008 and 2009. I thought in 2008 that it would be far better than 2008 so I traded 2009 picks to get extra 2008 picks and loaded up my team. In 2009 I though it was going to be much better than 2010 so I traded what I could to get more picks in 2009 (we can only trade the next year's picks) but it was more difficult. In 2010 I reversed course and started collecting 2011 picks and trying to trade away 2010 picks.

 

[Sabertooth]

I sold the farm last year because THIS YEAR was going to be generational. Turns out it's just another year.

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

it's almost always a good idea to trade a late current 1st for an unknown future 1st. The future 1st has potential to end up a lot higher and at worst you end up with a late 1st the next year (a push).the reward is far greater then the risk dealing the late 1st in the current year.it's not a bad trade for the other team either if they like someone available and think their team is going to be good, but they are risking a lot more.

I agree with most of what you said, but you left out an important point, and that is that having to wait on the value from a 1st rd pick one year later can be a negative and should be considered when trading picks.

 

[RustyFA2]

If it is the last pick then I try to trade. Typically i try to get a 2nd rounder this year along with the 1st this year.As far as knowing next years class is as good as this years? Not so fast. What happens if 4 QBs, 3 RBs, and 7 WRs go this year? It could happen. More likely 3-2-3 but until the draft you don't know.

you have people in your league who will not only give up their future 1st, but a 2nd in addition for the LAST pick in the current years 1st round???that is bizarre and if people repeatedly do that they will eventually end up with a horrible team.

Typically it is a pick in the 1.10-1.12 range in 14 team leagues but yes, I have done this 4 times in the last 3 years. It makes sense for both teams. 3 of the 4 times it was while my pick was up. So they give the 1st next year for a guy they like and a 2nd. I don't see why anyone would think this is wierd. These are expert leagues.

 

[RustyFA2]

If it is the last pick then I try to trade. Typically i try to get a 2nd rounder this year along with the 1st this year.As far as knowing next years class is as good as this years? Not so fast. What happens if 4 QBs, 3 RBs, and 7 WRs go this year? It could happen. More likely 3-2-3 but until the draft you don't know.

you have people in your league who will not only give up their future 1st, but a 2nd in addition for the LAST pick in the current years 1st round???that is bizarre and if people repeatedly do that they will eventually end up with a horrible team.

I agree. I would say that this suggested trade is highly unlikely to happen.

You are wrong.

 

[NorrisB]

yeah theres atleast 2-3 people in each league who think they're one piece away and will mortgage the future for today when in fact they're quite far away