So I am pretty sure that I've made my choice for how I am going to approach my draft this year and, as tantalizing as these elite QBs are to start off anchoring my team with, I've decided that I am going to wait on a QB and here is why:
1) people who draft Rodgers, Brady, brees, stafford, and even newton (to an extent) in the first 2 rounds are chasing last years stats. Last years stats, the more I think about it, were an anomaly. I know that the trend has been that the NFL is becoming a passing league for several years now. I acknowledge that. But come on...3 guys (I think) eclipsed 5000 yards passing...THREE! Two guys broke Marino's long standing record! Several others came close to 5000 yds! Do we really think that the lockout and the general unpreparedness of NFL defenses due to the lockout last year did not contribute to those outlandish numbers in a big way?
With a full offseason and preseason, you can be sure that defenses will come to the table much better prepared this season, and my best educated guess is that we will see a dropoff from last years pinball numbers. So anyone who drafts arodg, Brady, or brees in round 1 will have an elite qb no doubt, but they will surely be disappointed if they are expecting a repeat of 2011 IMO.
2) when have we ever witnessed a QB have a record breaking elite season and then go on to repeat anything even close to that the next season? Manning had that insane year and regressed to HIS mean the next. Brady was a g-d in 2007 and I think was injured and missed the 2008 season, then was back to his avg or below in 2009. Why should the 2011 guys be different? The types of seasons that these qbs had last year won't be repeated. If it does get repeated I will be 100% sold that it wasn't an anomaly.
3) taking a stud QB early means missing out on a stud RB, a position that is way thin this year.
4) with guys like Vick, romo, Eli, Payton, rivers, Ryan, and even rgIII going after the 4th round you can draft a studly rb/wr/te lineup and still get a great qb with huge upside later between rounds 4-8.
Finally, I will say that the only QB from last years ridiculousness that I think will NOT regress is can newton, and that is because if how special he is with running the ball and the rushing Tds. I think can can come close to his production last year again this year and maybe even beat it.
1) people who draft Rodgers, Brady, brees, stafford, and even newton (to an extent) in the first 2 rounds are chasing last years stats. Last years stats, the more I think about it, were an anomaly. I know that the trend has been that the NFL is becoming a passing league for several years now. I acknowledge that. But come on...3 guys (I think) eclipsed 5000 yards passing...THREE! Two guys broke Marino's long standing record! Several others came close to 5000 yds! Do we really think that the lockout and the general unpreparedness of NFL defenses due to the lockout last year did not contribute to those outlandish numbers in a big way?
With a full offseason and preseason, you can be sure that defenses will come to the table much better prepared this season, and my best educated guess is that we will see a dropoff from last years pinball numbers. So anyone who drafts arodg, Brady, or brees in round 1 will have an elite qb no doubt, but they will surely be disappointed if they are expecting a repeat of 2011 IMO.
2) when have we ever witnessed a QB have a record breaking elite season and then go on to repeat anything even close to that the next season? Manning had that insane year and regressed to HIS mean the next. Brady was a g-d in 2007 and I think was injured and missed the 2008 season, then was back to his avg or below in 2009. Why should the 2011 guys be different? The types of seasons that these qbs had last year won't be repeated. If it does get repeated I will be 100% sold that it wasn't an anomaly.
3) taking a stud QB early means missing out on a stud RB, a position that is way thin this year.
4) with guys like Vick, romo, Eli, Payton, rivers, Ryan, and even rgIII going after the 4th round you can draft a studly rb/wr/te lineup and still get a great qb with huge upside later between rounds 4-8.
Finally, I will say that the only QB from last years ridiculousness that I think will NOT regress is can newton, and that is because if how special he is with running the ball and the rushing Tds. I think can can come close to his production last year again this year and maybe even beat it.
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