The Mid Season LJ Idea (1 Viewer)

[LILB811]

I highly doubt that the 'Draft LJ for after week 4' strategy is really working out for those owners. Nobody wants to start off 0-4 knowing that LJ's schedule will eventually get easier. Owners get frustrated, and they get desperate even if they know things can only go up.

At this point, offering Parker and Housh for LJ is CRAZY. If I was the LJ owner, I would've taken that before the season. Now, that's an absolute steal.

I'm in the boat of those trying to acquire LJ. Start low, with some of your backup RB's, WR's so you're not the one hurting your team. Let the other owner suffer for now. If need be and you feel strong enough, step up the offer, but don't make your team worse by trying to get this guy.

 

[Sabertooth]

Exactly, I wouldn't offer Parker or Henry for him. More like a combo of Maroney and a mid-to-high level wideout like Driver. Work from there.

 

[Eagle Eye]

Can't believe that stinky Wille Parker bait is reelin in so many here.

 

[ceo3west]

Can't believe that stinky Wille Parker bait is reelin in so many here.

Yeah, who would want a top 10 RB on a solid team with an easy schedule

 

[Eagle Eye]

Can't believe that stinky Wille Parker bait is reelin in so many here.

Yeah, who would want a top 10 RB on a solid team with an easy schedule

I'll go s l o w e r this time. No one will give up FWP for LJ. This thread is supposed to be about buying LJ LOW.

 

[2and2is5]

i have LJ and i have been entertaining all the offers, but i've made it very clear that LJ is not going for discounted prices, his value remains at preseason levels and until i see a trade with that kind of value, i'm keeping him, and even if i do see that trade, i may just keep LJ anyway...stick to the plan, its been perfect though b/c i've been playing portis and barber III and sitting LJ...after week 4 i'll start playing RBBC situationally until LJ just breaks out....which i'm expecting

 

[Wilbur Wood]

Offered Willie Parker straight up - waiting to see if the owner bites.I don't think a lot of owners are willing to part with LJ that easily. If need be I'll throw in Housh to see if I can get the deal done.

That offer would represent full retail value and then some. I wouldn't have made that trade during the pre-season.

 

[NatronIsMean]

I just tried offering Portis for LJ and the owner kinda laughed it off.

Yeah, no way I'd trade away LJ for Portis. Way too much risk there. A majority of us that have LJ remember him starting more slowly last year and will stay the course. He's very talented. That's proven. The passing game is improving. The schedule is about to improve dramatically. He's had more conditioning to do in-season this year than ever before. I think there is a gulf between what owners would be willing to part with him for and his perceived value. For that reason, most owners won't panic and most buy low people won't be willing to pay enough.

 

[Banger]

I think you go in with a plan, and stick to it. Larry isn't injured. He was very productive last season behind a makeshift line. He had tough opponents and those that noticed this scheduling issue made the plan to go after him a bit later on after his numbers suffered. Now that they've suffered, people want to abandon the plan.He's the classic buy-low candidate right now. His schedule improves, and he will too....he's too good not to. The trick is not paying more than the lowered value of him. Don't pay his preseason value. Pay the reduced rate or walk.

when you look at LJ's situation there a few things you have to consider....one that he had no preseason so his 1st game against Houston was a limited game but he still got 80+ yards, the other thing is that he faced probably the top 2 run defenses in the league and got 80 yards against Chicago and only 40 against Minn. Last year when LJ finished #2 he faced the Steelers and got 15-26-1 but this is forgotten because it wasn't in the 1st couple weeks. At the end of the day if KC wants to win they are going to HAVE to ride LJ just like last year. Now is the time to buy especially in dynasty leagues.

 

[One]

You tell me one RB not named LT who'd look good against MIN & CHI. (Johnson was limited to 10 carries v. HOU)

Johnson's well on his way to a big second half. You gotta think BUY LOW, SELL HIGH. Don't fall in love with all your players.

This guy is gonna win some people their leagues this year if you make the right trade. Don't let go of a top 10 back for him. Deal mid-tier RB and a WR or even an overachieving RB2 and see if you can pry him from a panicked owner. (get creative)

Trading Westy or Parker makes no sense because you won't get that much of a return or upgrade. Now if you can pair LJ with one of the two, you could be dynomite! for the 2nd half of the season.

...easier said than done, I know, but it happens. People always panic this time of year.



Edit: '06 Rushing YDS:

1st 5 games: 68 , 126 , 101 , 36 , 26 (21c/71yds/0.6TD per game)

Last 11 games: 132 , 155 , 172 , 75 , 154 , 157 , 110 , 120 , 84 , 135 , 138 (28c/130yds/1.2TD per game)

The KC offense will get going.

 

[kensat30]

I'm sorry, but no one can run against Minnesota. LJ did well in his other starts considering his holdout situation and the teams that he faced. His value can only get higher going forward IMO. Right now is the perfect time for a buy low opportunity. It doesn't get any better than this.Maybe something like Marion Barber for LJ ? Would any LJ owner go for that?

Honestly, that's one guy that I'm very high on in general. I don't think I could do it as an LJ owner, but then Marion and Adrian Peterson would sound great as my two keepers for my 2-keeper league next year...In a redraft, I wouldn't but it is close. The sky is the limit for Barber this year. As a Julius Jones owner, he's going to be largely out of the picture sooner than later, IMO.

Sell high/Buy low wins leagues.This right here is the proof.

 

[JimboJim]

i have LJ and i have been entertaining all the offers, but i've made it very clear that LJ is not going for discounted prices, his value remains at preseason levels and until i see a trade with that kind of value, i'm keeping him, and even if i do see that trade, i may just keep LJ anyway...stick to the plan, its been perfect though b/c i've been playing portis and barber III and sitting LJ...after week 4 i'll start playing RBBC situationally until LJ just breaks out....which i'm expecting

This is exactly why trading FOR LJ (or LT or SJ) right now is a mistake.The owner that drafted him are still in denial and like the poster above states, are valuing him way over his current production based on his previous track record.I'm not saying any of these player won't return to a level of good production, but I think it's overly optimistic to project guys who are rushing for under 3 yards a carry and haven't scored a TD to return to level they were playing at last season, or where they were projected to perform this season.I say if you own any of the big three, ride it out or try to trade them and get value based on the name recognition.If you don't own one of them and want to target a RB in a trade, look for some lower priced option like Marion Barber, LaMont Jordan, Edge or Deshaun Foster. These guys are all earning their keep this season and present much less risk for the price.

 

[One]

If you don't own one of them and want to target a RB in a trade, look for some lower priced option like Marion Barber, LaMont Jordan, Edge or Deshaun Foster. These guys are all earning their keep this season and present much less risk for the price.

I agree with the post, no use in buying LJ from a guy who's still high on him, but Jordan and Foster are about as sell high as they come IMO.

 

[mstewart39]

I traded FOR LJ.

I gave away: A. Peterson, J. Galloway, B. Edwards

I received: LJ, Plax

Draft day that would have looked insane. Today, I am HOPING that I got the better end of that deal!

 

[no3putts]

Offered Willie Parker straight up - waiting to see if the owner bites.I don't think a lot of owners are willing to part with LJ that easily. If need be I'll throw in Housh to see if I can get the deal done.

wow, seriously? FWP and Housh for LJ? methinks you'd be getting hosed

Hopefully the other owner feels that way as well

PLEASE join my league, you wouldn't need to throw in housh.

 

[G-King]

If you don't own one of them and want to target a RB in a trade, look for some lower priced option like Marion Barber, LaMont Jordan, Edge or Deshaun Foster. These guys are all earning their keep this season and present much less risk for the price.

I agree with the post, no use in buying LJ from a guy who's still high on him, but Jordan and Foster are about as sell high as they come IMO.

So in the risk of having "WRONG FORUM" screamed at me, are you guys thinking an LJ (buy low)for LJ (sell high)-straight up- is a good deal for the Lamont owner? My thoughts are that you are gonna get one more great game out of him this week and then he is on a bye, making it harder to get as much for him. I am not concerned about Rhodes' return because he will just get Fargas' 5-8 carries, but Oaklands playoff schedule is a little more brutal than L.Johnson's. I can afford to bench Johnson until he turns it around, but the question is ..."Is garauntee money now worth possible lotto money later?"

 

[Judge Smails]

i have LJ and i have been entertaining all the offers, but i've made it very clear that LJ is not going for discounted prices, his value remains at preseason levels and until i see a trade with that kind of value, i'm keeping him, and even if i do see that trade, i may just keep LJ anyway...stick to the plan, its been perfect though b/c i've been playing portis and barber III and sitting LJ...after week 4 i'll start playing RBBC situationally until LJ just breaks out....which i'm expecting

This is exactly why trading FOR LJ (or LT or SJ) right now is a mistake.The owner that drafted him are still in denial and like the poster above states, are valuing him way over his current production based on his previous track record.I'm not saying any of these player won't return to a level of good production, but I think it's overly optimistic to project guys who are rushing for under 3 yards a carry and haven't scored a TD to return to level they were playing at last season, or where they were projected to perform this season.I say if you own any of the big three, ride it out or try to trade them and get value based on the name recognition.If you don't own one of them and want to target a RB in a trade, look for some lower priced option like Marion Barber, LaMont Jordan, Edge or Deshaun Foster. These guys are all earning their keep this season and present much less risk for the price.

Some people are just totally missing the point. I don't care where my #4 overall pick ends up at the end of the year in terms of rankings. I really don't. All I care about is LJ's PPG from week 5 on, including playoffs. I built my roster with that in mind. I don't care if he gives me gooseggs for 4 weeks. And, it is reasonable to expect, with better matchups, that is productivity will return to last year's levels. I'm not talking 2+ years ago like the Pries/LJ/Vermiel heyday, just last year. Unless you think that losing Will Shields alone can destroy that offense (I don't), then it is entirely reasonable. Especially with the addition of a stud like Bowe, return of Kennison to go with Gonzalez, easier schedule, etc. He will have several 100+ yard, 1-2 TD games. If you are not a believer - don't trade for him.

 

[AnonymousBob]

I offered Travis Henry for LJ. The other owner wanted Gates and Housh as well. He was willing to give me back Gonzo and crap.

 

[JimboJim]

i have LJ and i have been entertaining all the offers, but i've made it very clear that LJ is not going for discounted prices, his value remains at preseason levels and until i see a trade with that kind of value, i'm keeping him, and even if i do see that trade, i may just keep LJ anyway...stick to the plan, its been perfect though b/c i've been playing portis and barber III and sitting LJ...after week 4 i'll start playing RBBC situationally until LJ just breaks out....which i'm expecting

This is exactly why trading FOR LJ (or LT or SJ) right now is a mistake.The owner that drafted him are still in denial and like the poster above states, are valuing him way over his current production based on his previous track record.I'm not saying any of these player won't return to a level of good production, but I think it's overly optimistic to project guys who are rushing for under 3 yards a carry and haven't scored a TD to return to level they were playing at last season, or where they were projected to perform this season.I say if you own any of the big three, ride it out or try to trade them and get value based on the name recognition.If you don't own one of them and want to target a RB in a trade, look for some lower priced option like Marion Barber, LaMont Jordan, Edge or Deshaun Foster. These guys are all earning their keep this season and present much less risk for the price.

Some people are just totally missing the point. I don't care where my #4 overall pick ends up at the end of the year in terms of rankings. I really don't. All I care about is LJ's PPG from week 5 on, including playoffs. I built my roster with that in mind. I don't care if he gives me gooseggs for 4 weeks. And, it is reasonable to expect, with better matchups, that is productivity will return to last year's levels. I'm not talking 2+ years ago like the Pries/LJ/Vermiel heyday, just last year. Unless you think that losing Will Shields alone can destroy that offense (I don't), then it is entirely reasonable. Especially with the addition of a stud like Bowe, return of Kennison to go with Gonzalez, easier schedule, etc. He will have several 100+ yard, 1-2 TD games. If you are not a believer - don't trade for him.

The original point of this thread was to re-evaluate the proposed theory of trying to trade for LJ after the first few weeks if he didn't perform well and get him on the cheap.I think "generally" this plan isn't looking as good as it did before the season for two main reasons.1. LJ hasn't just been lousy the first few games, he has been downright pi$$ poor. 0 TDs and a 2.8 YPC. If that doesn't clue you off to a problem, what will?2. People who drafted him took him high and aren't going to give him away for peanuts, which is how he is currently performing. All I proposed was that if you want to target a RB in a trade, look to some lower cost/risk players.It's just my opnion, but I have a real hard time seeing his production returning to last year's levels. I think KC has some major problems and LJ is going to end up as a bust this year. If I could get him for the right price, I would take him, but I wouldn't give up a quality starting RB or a top-WR for him right now. I don't doubt he will have a couple of 100 yard games and score 6-8 TDs from here on out, but you'll have to pay a lot more than that to get him.

 

[Macdaddy_2004]

Offered Willie Parker straight up - waiting to see if the owner bites.I don't think a lot of owners are willing to part with LJ that easily. If need be I'll throw in Housh to see if I can get the deal done.

wow, seriously? FWP and Housh for LJ? methinks you'd be getting hosed

FYI Ahman Green and Willie Parker offer was rejected - If I put Housh on the table I will attempt to get a decent WR in the trade as well (probably Colston)

 

[JimboJim]

If you don't own one of them and want to target a RB in a trade, look for some lower priced option like Marion Barber, LaMont Jordan, Edge or Deshaun Foster. These guys are all earning their keep this season and present much less risk for the price.

I agree with the post, no use in buying LJ from a guy who's still high on him, but Jordan and Foster are about as sell high as they come IMO.

So in the risk of having "WRONG FORUM" screamed at me, are you guys thinking an LJ (buy low)for LJ (sell high)-straight up- is a good deal for the Lamont owner? My thoughts are that you are gonna get one more great game out of him this week and then he is on a bye, making it harder to get as much for him. I am not concerned about Rhodes' return because he will just get Fargas' 5-8 carries, but Oaklands playoff schedule is a little more brutal than L.Johnson's. I can afford to bench Johnson until he turns it around, but the question is ..."Is garauntee money now worth possible lotto money later?"

That's a tough one right there. I think if LJ pulls a complete 180, he ends up the better play, but it would be tough for me to get rid ofJordan right now.People look at Jordan and think he's going to fall off the face of the earth because he plays for the Raiders and was lousy last year, even though he is a stud right now.

Likewise, because of LJ's last two seasons, most seem to think he's going to turn it around and finish as a stud, eben though he looks miserable right now.

Yeah, I think I'd move Jordan for LJ if the chance came up, but don't be surprised if you're regretting that later.

 

[JimboJim]

Offered Willie Parker straight up - waiting to see if the owner bites.I don't think a lot of owners are willing to part with LJ that easily. If need be I'll throw in Housh to see if I can get the deal done.

wow, seriously? FWP and Housh for LJ? methinks you'd be getting hosed

FYI Ahman Green and Willie Parker offer was rejected - If I put Housh on the table I will attempt to get a decent WR in the trade as well (probably Colston)

If this isn't a I'd really like to know why you think LJ >> Parker for the rest of the year.Doesn't what you've seen from the KC offense scare you?

 

[coachjim]

If you don't own one of them and want to target a RB in a trade, look for some lower priced option like Marion Barber, LaMont Jordan, Edge or Deshaun Foster. These guys are all earning their keep this season and present much less risk for the price.

I agree with the post, no use in buying LJ from a guy who's still high on him, but Jordan and Foster are about as sell high as they come IMO.

I offered the LJ owner Foster, Bruce and Owen Daniels for LJ and one of his scub TE's. My starter at TE is Gates. My other RB's are FWP, Portis, KJ and Rhodes. Still waiting to hear from him.

 

[Judge Smails]

i have LJ and i have been entertaining all the offers, but i've made it very clear that LJ is not going for discounted prices, his value remains at preseason levels and until i see a trade with that kind of value, i'm keeping him, and even if i do see that trade, i may just keep LJ anyway...stick to the plan, its been perfect though b/c i've been playing portis and barber III and sitting LJ...after week 4 i'll start playing RBBC situationally until LJ just breaks out....which i'm expecting

This is exactly why trading FOR LJ (or LT or SJ) right now is a mistake.The owner that drafted him are still in denial and like the poster above states, are valuing him way over his current production based on his previous track record.I'm not saying any of these player won't return to a level of good production, but I think it's overly optimistic to project guys who are rushing for under 3 yards a carry and haven't scored a TD to return to level they were playing at last season, or where they were projected to perform this season.I say if you own any of the big three, ride it out or try to trade them and get value based on the name recognition.If you don't own one of them and want to target a RB in a trade, look for some lower priced option like Marion Barber, LaMont Jordan, Edge or Deshaun Foster. These guys are all earning their keep this season and present much less risk for the price.

Some people are just totally missing the point. I don't care where my #4 overall pick ends up at the end of the year in terms of rankings. I really don't. All I care about is LJ's PPG from week 5 on, including playoffs. I built my roster with that in mind. I don't care if he gives me gooseggs for 4 weeks. And, it is reasonable to expect, with better matchups, that is productivity will return to last year's levels. I'm not talking 2+ years ago like the Pries/LJ/Vermiel heyday, just last year. Unless you think that losing Will Shields alone can destroy that offense (I don't), then it is entirely reasonable. Especially with the addition of a stud like Bowe, return of Kennison to go with Gonzalez, easier schedule, etc. He will have several 100+ yard, 1-2 TD games. If you are not a believer - don't trade for him.

The original point of this thread was to re-evaluate the proposed theory of trying to trade for LJ after the first few weeks if he didn't perform well and get him on the cheap.I think "generally" this plan isn't looking as good as it did before the season for two main reasons.1. LJ hasn't just been lousy the first few games, he has been downright pi$$ poor. 0 TDs and a 2.8 YPC. If that doesn't clue you off to a problem, what will?2. People who drafted him took him high and aren't going to give him away for peanuts, which is how he is currently performing. All I proposed was that if you want to target a RB in a trade, look to some lower cost/risk players.It's just my opnion, but I have a real hard time seeing his production returning to last year's levels. I think KC has some major problems and LJ is going to end up as a bust this year. If I could get him for the right price, I would take him, but I wouldn't give up a quality starting RB or a top-WR for him right now. I don't doubt he will have a couple of 100 yard games and score 6-8 TDs from here on out, but you'll have to pay a lot more than that to get him.

Agree to disagree. Especially disagree with #1. Bears/Vikings rush D's were the problem. With that analogy, you'd sell LT too, right? You can't just make deals based on past performance. You have to try and look into the future. So #2 doesn't hold water with me. And I think you're projections of "a couple of 100 yard games and 6-8 TD's" are off - by a lot. I see 7-10 100 yard games, and 10-13+ TD's

 

[Jimboozie]

I'm still waiting a few more weeks to buy low on LJ. The sked isn't getting any easier anytime soon.

 

[Macdaddy_2004]

Objectively I dunno how much easier the schedule gets

@ SDG - okay matchup

JAC - tough

CIN - easy

@OAK - okay

GNB - okay

DEN - okay

@IND - okay

OAK - okay

IND - okay

Week 14, 15, 16

@DEN - okay

TEN - tough

@DET - easy

 

[Judge Smails]

Objectively I dunno how much easier the schedule gets@ SDG - okay matchupJAC - toughCIN - easy@OAK - okayGNB - okayDEN - okay@IND - okayOAK - okayIND - okayWeek 14, 15, 16@DEN - okayTEN - tough@DET - easy

Denver might be one of the softest run D's in the league right now. Much different than in previous years. Change the two Denver games to EASY. And Oakland is iffy at best. Some games decent, some games they implode. There are no more Bears/Vikings/NE type defenses left. Jax and TN are pretty good but not invincible, and both those games are at KC. LJ's a start in every one of those games listed.

 

[G-King]

If you don't own one of them and want to target a RB in a trade, look for some lower priced option like Marion Barber, LaMont Jordan, Edge or Deshaun Foster. These guys are all earning their keep this season and present much less risk for the price.

I agree with the post, no use in buying LJ from a guy who's still high on him, but Jordan and Foster are about as sell high as they come IMO.

So in the risk of having "WRONG FORUM" screamed at me, are you guys thinking an LJ (buy low)for LJ (sell high)-straight up- is a good deal for the Lamont owner? My thoughts are that you are gonna get one more great game out of him this week and then he is on a bye, making it harder to get as much for him. I am not concerned about Rhodes' return because he will just get Fargas' 5-8 carries, but Oaklands playoff schedule is a little more brutal than L.Johnson's. I can afford to bench Johnson until he turns it around, but the question is ..."Is garauntee money now worth possible lotto money later?"

That's a tough one right there. I think if LJ pulls a complete 180, he ends up the better play, but it would be tough for me to get rid ofJordan right now.People look at Jordan and think he's going to fall off the face of the earth because he plays for the Raiders and was lousy last year, even though he is a stud right now.

Likewise, because of LJ's last two seasons, most seem to think he's going to turn it around and finish as a stud, eben though he looks miserable right now.

Yeah, I think I'd move Jordan for LJ if the chance came up, but don't be surprised if you're regretting that later.

That is where I am at... I think the floor for Jordan is RB 12 with a ceiling of RB 7 by seasons end. Well with Johnson I see a floor of RB 18 and a ceiling of RB 6 (give or take a couple on all). So is the risk worth the reward? I am having my doubts if you take away the stygma of the reputations of each. ( Side note: Keller, TX? Whats up Homeboy! )

 

[The Dangler]

I was offered LJ and Chad Johnson for FWP and Larry Fitzgerald.

At first I thought it sounded like a steal, but now I'm pretty sure I'm gonna pass.

 

[WisWolvrns]

LJ owner was dumping last week... so in lieu of another owner snagging him I dealt for him with Rudi Johnson and Ben Watson.

I agree it is still a risk with the way KC's offense has been, but they are 1-2 and in a division which looks challenged this year... so if KC can keep their record close while they work out the kinks in their offense, I could see him rebound when the schedule does get easier.

 

[NeverEnough]

Wow, LJ's value has gone down crap. Good thing I don't plan to trade him & I am still 3-0

 

[MrJimmy]

To great general acclaim, I traded LJ today for Braylon Edwards, Dwayne Jarret, and a first round draft pick next year.

I can stash Jarret on my practice squad indefinitely to see if he amounts to anything. 1st round picks in this keeper league this year included Reggie Wayne, Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch, Housh, Roy Williams.....

Just couldn't see LJ returning to anything close to his former level of production this year. And the more I thought about it, not sure how KC fixes this mess next year either. Meanwhile, as LJ waits for things to improve, I fully expect him to be jailed for some sort of assault on the coaches. Win/win for me.

 

[NatronIsMean]

I traded FOR LJ.I gave away: A. Peterson, J. Galloway, B. EdwardsI received: LJ, PlaxDraft day that would have looked insane. Today, I am HOPING that I got the better end of that deal!

I like that move. Honestly, NICE. And very possibly a win-win of sorts, which is what you should always shoot for.

 

[NatronIsMean]

I was offered LJ and Chad Johnson for FWP and Larry Fitzgerald.At first I thought it sounded like a steal, but now I'm pretty sure I'm gonna pass.

I would do that, personally. I guess it just comes down to how much faith you have in LJ returning to the numbers of old. The schedule coming up is all sunshine.

 

[jbz]

I wanna attempt a trade offer for LJ, but only tradable asset I got is AD Peterson and I have a man crush on him

 

[Tirnan]

I still have faith in the LJ plan. I had him as a keeper in all my leagues but 1. In that one I just offered the owner either:

Cedric Benson (who is either going to implode now or at best barely make his predicted draft stats)

or Cadillac Williams (who I think is likely at his high value point at the moment)

as a straight trade for him. Waiting to see if he nibbles on the bait.

For the guy offered LJ and CJ for FWP and Fitz, pull the trigger!!! After you pull the trigger, start chanting "superbowl".

 

[Judge Smails]

I wanna attempt a trade offer for LJ, but only tradable asset I got is AD Peterson and I have a man crush on him

I know whatcha mean. I owned ADP as well - had serious man crush. But Addai become available when I paired ADP with Braylon Edwards. Couldn't pass that up. I also own LJ. I wouldn't have made that same trade for LJ.

 

[SKribbles]

Offered S.Moss, S.Macdonald and Gore for LJ and Driver.

I doubt it will get accepted but its worth a shot.