Better to be a Snelling clone than a Greene knock-off. LeShoure's upside was capped very low when he tore his achilles. He is now LenDale White-esque. I still think Kevin Smith is the best fit for this team out of the three backs, but we all know that ship has sailed.'Carter_Can_Fly said:
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The Official Mikel Leshoure Thread (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter kevthegrad
- Start date
mr roboto
Footballguy
Anyone know why this ship has sailed?
cstu
Footballguy
My mistake, it was carries with 5 or less yards to go.'FF Ninja said:'cstu said:Not being rude, but you need to give that one another run through on the ol' data dominator. Think about those numbers you just wrote. That would be insane. I don't think any team in the NFL had that many first downs inside the 5. When I run the DD, I get the following: Between the opp 5 and GL he had 7 rushes for 7 yards and 6 TD.
By comparison, Arian Foster had the most rushes - 29 for 42 yards and 11 TDs.
But 6 TDs on 7 rushes is a great ratio that I don't think I'd count on next year. It looks like LeShoure was either really lucky or just really good at one aspect (punching it in) while being totally subpar in every other aspect. My money is on lucky. Much better RBs had lesser ratios. Marshawn Lynch had 11 rushes for 15 yards and 5 TDs. Adrian Peterson had 18 rushes for 18 yards and 6 TDs. So next year I wouldn't bank on LeShoure scoring 9 TDs again unless you expect his usage to go way up.
Interesting unrelated fact: Stevan Ridley had 20 rushes inside the 5 for a whopping 2 yards, but he did punch it in 8 times. Either way, he went backwards a lot. I might be concerned about him losing goal line carries next year. Woodhead had 6 carries for 8 yards and 2 TDs. Vereen had 5 carries for 12 yards and 3 TDs.
cstu
Footballguy
Ninja, you wrote Leshoure off the second he tore his Achilles. You seem to think it's still a career-killer but Andre Brown looked really good this year, three years removed from tearing his.
Carter_Can_Fly
Footballguy
Not in fantasy football.Leshoure also has more all around game then White and Greene have or had. Greene has 24 catches through 4 seasons and a grand total of 18 td's.
The Leshoure hate by many on here is funny. Leshoure is not a big play guy but he is a chain mover that could improve on his ypc going forward as he will be a couple years removed from a bad injury. He won't ever be an electric make you miss guy, but he can have a bit of beast mode going forward. We are talking about a 22 year old RB who had 9 rushing td's and he caught 34 passes even though he did not play 3rd down duty. He also did not even play the first 2 games due to suspension so all of this was done in 14 games.
Not everyone is Peterson, Foster and company. Detroit could badly could use a scat back type, but many are writing Leshoure off too soon.
cstu
Footballguy
I don't think it's at all about the draft picks. Smith was signed to a one year deal and has never stayed healthy. Bell's contract is up and he's 27 next year - 4 years older than Leshoure. With Leshoure's age (23 in 2013) it makes sense to look at him as their back of the future.'Da Guru said:
Carter_Can_Fly
Footballguy
I keep hearing this as an excuse which is false to say the least. Leshoure is not on a big money contract. He was taken in the second round pick 25. Some of you are clearly reaching here.This is his contract details...Signed a four-year, $3.04 million contract. The deal contains $1.6 million guaranteed, including a $997,584 signing bonus. An annual $17,761 workout bonus is available in years two through four. 2013: $555,000, 2014: $645,000, 2015: Free AgentJoique Bell made just over 1 million over the last 2 years. 2011: 465,0002012: 540,0002013: free agentAlthough Leshoure got 1.6 million guaranteed he is not making this absurd amount of money that is forcing the Detroit brass to play him.'Da Guru said:
Your guess is as good (or better) than mine. I feel like he did more than anyone could've expected last year coming in off the street. Then he got the job and was productive for LeShoure's two week suspension and saw just 8 carries and 7 targets the rest of the year. Bizarre. But my guess? Schwartz is a putz which has led to poor decisions. Sometimes the best explanation is the simplest...Really? The key word there was knock-off, which implies he is worse than Greene, so I'm going to assert that yes, being a Snelling clone is better than being a Greene knock-off even in fantasy football.You are a little bit too caught up with trivial stats. The TDs don't mean much, nor do the dump off passes. TDs are well known to be the most fluky stats in football. Calvin Johnson only had 5 this year on 122 catches and almost 2000 yards. He was tackled at the 1 yard line like 7 times. Do you really think Bell or Smith couldn't have plugged in those 1 yard TDs that LeShoure did? Those TDs were NOT impressive feats, so why bring them up? Totally meaningless. As for the catches, were those skill? Stafford is a dump off expert. So he threw the ball 48 times to LeShoure. He managed a mere 6.3 ypr on those. Not impressive. The only reason he is fantasy relevant is work load. Teams with good coaches tend to give the heaviest work load to the most productive players. That's the only thing he's got going for him... we don't know if Schwartz is smart enough to do that or if he'll keep plugging away with his least productive back.
And for the record, this isn't hate. I have no malice towards the fellow. I feel bad for him. But I'm on a fantasy football board so I'm discussing his prospects. People are way too optimistic about his prospects, so I'm trying to give a realistic perspective. If it isn't what you want to hear, maybe you'll label it as hate, but it's not. The injury was unfortunate. Towards the end of the season he was about 1.5 years removed from the injury and yet he never cracked 4 ypc during his last 6 games. All the while Calvin was going nuts so the defense couldn't afford to stack the box against him. He should've been running wild. I mean, c'mon, Indianapolis is HORRIBLE yet he only managed 2.7 ypc on 21 carries! Longest run? 7 yards.
Well, it wasn't just the injury. Statistically speaking, what were his chances of making it in the NFL anyway? Plenty of second rounders have flamed out. So when he had a daunting injury it was time to move on. Before the injury it wasn't a sure thing he was going to be a good player, but he was worth a shot. Now that we've seen him thoroughly outshined by a mediocre talent. I'm not sure what more you guys need to see. It's not like he was a proven stud before injury. This very well might be as good as he gets. It's not like he tore his achilles in week 17 last year. He started the season over a year removed from injury. Sure, Andre Brown did look good on 73 carries this year, but you have to take that with a grain of salt. Don't let some anecdotal evidence cloud your judgement. There will always be exceptions. Historically this has been a devastating injury for athletes.
kegger
Footballguy
The funny part is people writing him off here after ONE SEASON!And one season in which he came back from the pretty bad injurythat is known to take RB's a long time to try an recover from it, thento try an compare his stats with another back on the team used in an completely different way, reverse the roles between Bell an Leshouremaking Bell run early in games and mostly first down an use Leshourelater in games with mostly 3rd down, there stats will be quite different.He was basically a rookie, and coming off that injury, from what I sawthere is plenty to be optimistic about going forward with him in Detroit.
kevthegrad
Footballguy
I do think there is *some* merit in the fact he was coming off the injury. With an entire off-season and being healthier, I'm sure he will improve a bit. But his YPC average and lack of +20 yard rushes are cause for concern. And the way Bell looked GOOD the last few games worries me as a Leshoure owner that it will be a full out RBBC by Sept next year. God all we need now is Best to come back to further complicate things.
Welcome to fantasyfootball. Gotta beahead of the curve.This is not a waitand see type of game.I still don't knowwhy you format alloff your replieslike this.
Yeah, but what you saw this season is exactly what you worry about with Achiiles ruptures. Most NFL players returning from that injury never regain their explosiveness. And what did you see from Leshoure? Low YPC and lack of explosiveness. He was completely unable to break away from the defenders this year. He was the only back in the NFL with significant carries to not break a 20+ yd run.You don't have to worry about the lions signing a feature back in FA though. They are so deep in cap space hell from the restructuring they did in recent years they can't afford it. They will go into next year with a RBBC though. Whether through late round picks or low end RB FAs.
Peeps Inc.
Footballguy
Best is never playing football again and if he does it will be Robert Edwards style and won't amount to anything, Bell is a free agent and mite be back but who knows. I'm not sold on Leshoures talent but his opportunity seems to be pretty strong and unless the Lions bring someone in during the offseason i think it's fairly safe to say he gets the "lionshare" of early down and goal line work in Detroit
kevthegrad
Footballguy
Reading profootball talk dot com this morning and saw a story saying "Lions RB Joique Bell has a history with Detroit’s new running backs coach."I said the F word three times after reading it. (Leshoure owner)
kevthegrad
Footballguy
hahahahahaha
cstu
Footballguy
He was his coach for 5 months.
Kiddnets
Footballguy
yeah I wouldnt read too much into that...it also said he would be involved in the passing game....no shocker there. I see Leshoure the primary RB with Bell the change of pace 3rd down speciallist...both will have value but Leshoure will have more. Solid #3RB too use as a #2 ina pinch - IMO.
kevthegrad
Footballguy
So in looking at his YPC and stats, I also see a link between exactly how often the Lions were falling behind in games this year and the run game not being utilized. So while his ability to break the 20+ yard runs is in question and should be - I'm not convinced that the combined variables of the Lions lack of passing threat (outside of Calvin) and having fallen behind in games didn't make for the most opportunity for Leshoure to shine this year. I have some optimism about the next season....
cstu
Footballguy
IIRC, Tomlinson only had 3 20+ yard runs his rookie year and he wasn't coming off a torn Achilles. I think it could go either way with Leshoure but his rookie year wasn't too bad considering the injury he was overcoming.
So, his usage will make him a poor man's Stevan Ridley?
Area51Inhabitant
Footballguy
I think of him more as a poor mans Shonn Greene.
Carter_Can_Fly
Footballguy
I have seen this a couple of times and I don't really get it.22 year old Leshoure in his rookie year coming off a very bad injury had more fantasy points per game than 27 year old Greene did this year.Leshoure also caught 34 passes this year in comparison to Greene's 19.I don't get the hate for Leshoure. He was not explosive this year, but he showed above average power and had a nose for the end zone. He also falls forward and runs well between the tackles. He proved that he can handle an NFL size work load and can get involved in the passing game.Not everyone is Peterson like and can bounce back from injuries so quickly. Let's see Leshoure in his sophmore year before we start saying he is a journey man type RB.
Is catching more passes impressive when it is simply due to the fact that he had more passes directed to him? When comparing talents, why compare totals like that? A more telling stat would be that Mikel only managed 6.3 ypr while Greene averaged 7.9 ypr.It appears as though LeShoure did very little more than catch a dump off pass and then immediately fall forward.'Carter_Can_Fly said:
Catbird
Footballguy
Catching almost twice as many passes per game played as Greene (LeShoure played 13, Greene 15) certainly makes a difference situationally and for what we can anticipate LeShoure producing in the future. If you consider that it was his first year in the offense and with this QB throwing to him and that Greene was catching a lot of dumpoffs under prevent defenses while the Jets were throwing to catch up (such as they could) I think you have to anticipate LeShoure's receiving potential is at least twice Greene's - not that this is a high standard.IMO the real question on LeShoure is whether the explosion will come back any more than it had this year (and what improvement will come naturally from 1st year to 2nd). There is no statistically significant record of recovery from this kind of injury, considering the current medical technology and recognizing that more than 3-4 years ago it was pretty much a career killer. If the explosion doesn't come back, Mikel likely won't be much more than the #20ish RB he was this year, and could easily lose ground in a committee, or his job altogether, if they upgrade along the way or even if Bell simply outplays him. But if the explosion comes back to any significant extent, the situation, his power and agility for his size suggest a very high ceiling for a RB many are writing off. The question for me is whether you want to risk the current cost for the potential reward. I'm glad to hold.
Kiddnets
Footballguy
Very fair analysis. As long as the Lions don't draft or sign a RB to threaten his P/T he should get his shot to be a #2 RB...he finishd 20th ranked RB in my league after missing the 1st 2 games and coming off of the injury....can't ask much more than that basd on the relatively low price it will be to get him compared to others.
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I totally agree - the difference is purely situational. I took issue with his response because he was replying to a post which I thought was comparing talent and he brought in a purely situational stat. Greene is a FA now, so his situation is about to change. Stafford threw an NFL record 725 passes last year, so I suspect that situation is going to change, too.But I think everyone is wondering about the explosion you mention. There was no NFL frame of reference before, so no one really knows how much explosion he had to begin with. By the end of the season he was 1.5 years removed from the injury, so that's why I'm skeptical. Which brings me to another point, people are throwing the phrase "hate" around here. I don't consider myself a hater, just a skeptic. Player specific threads are often crowded with optimistic owners/fans, so in this case I am trying to fill the role of the voice of reason.
What do you guys think his redraft ADP will be? I was thinking somewhere in the 4th-6th round range. A fair price if he really finishes around RB20 (pretty much a given if he receives the same large workload and goal line touches), but if he plays like he did this year then I fear he'll have his role reduced by the time FF playoffs roll around. Thus making him a boom or bust draft pick in my eyes, rather than the safe, unsexy pick some in this thread make him out to be. I say boom or bust because if he is explosive next year then he'll probably get more carries and catches per game than he did this year and he'll do much more with them. Maybe even finishing in the top 12. But if he looks like the plodder he was this year then he'll see less and less touches as the season progresses and he'll be unstartable when you need him most.
kevthegrad
Footballguy
Some really good points made for and against Leshoure here and this thread has done exactly what I hoped it would - bring out relevant thoughts on both sides of the coin.I've read and re-read the thread a few times and each time I'm left with the same feeling - optimism. Yes I own him in my favourite dynasty league. But I also think if I was more objective (admitting I'm hoping for him to show better next year) I would have optimism because:1) He has receiving skills and will get some points that way for me2) He was coming off a big injury and likely not 100% "normal".3) The situations he played in, from behind etc...make me feel like with a balanced attack he will see more opportunity next year.4) His age. The jury is still out on him and I think given the other needs the Lions have, they won't prioritize adding more RBs.
Wyld Stallyns
Footballguy
I'm pencilling him in as an early-to-mid 5th in redrafts, depending on how he looks in camp/preseason. (That's contingent on the Lions not signing or drafting anyone significant of course)... I think that'd be a GREAT price for him given the upside and will be looking at him as a RB3/Flex type in a every league. That's right around the point of a draft where you need to start disregarding concerns and taking risks – plus, it isn't very easy finding a starting RB on a high-powered offense who is locked in for goal-line work at the very least.
cstu
Footballguy
This skepticism is reasonable. It's concerning that he didn't have a break out game ala Demaryius Thomas at the end of the year and muddled along with 14/50 stat lines. His injury was a tough one for RB's so it might not be fair to compare him to Thomas. He has an entire offseason to work on his explosiveness so I think next year will be telling about what kind of career he's going to have.
matttyl
Footballguy
I wouldn't be so sure on that last point.....today's news:The Detroit Free Press acknowledges that Jahvid Best's (concussions) career is likely over, and the Lions are searching for his replacement.
Doctors have refused to clear Best to take more hits after suffering two concussions in 2011, and four in his football-playing career. The Lions have seemingly moved on, as GM Martin Mayhew reiterated that he needs to find "that shifty back that can come in and be that change-of-pace guy who can catch passes out of the backfield." Coaching the South team at the Senior Bowl, Jim Schwartz's staff has kept a close eye on running backs.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Kenjon Barner (5'10" 188 lbs)in the 4th/5th Round is the guy I keep hearing for the Lions to replace Best.
For my selfish dynasty league, I'd prefer Woodhead there -- but Barner would really help them.
Kiddnets
Footballguy
I think that would cut down on Bell's touches more than Leshoure....
Wyld Stallyns
Footballguy
Yeah, they've been talking about finding a new Best for a while now.
matttyl
Footballguy
Bell didn't have that much touches to begin with. I think any RB that their GM would call "change of pace" would get at least the 134 that Bell got. Either they start running the ball more in Mo-Town, or LeShoure's carries will go down if they do get a true "change of pace" RB.
kevthegrad
Footballguy
Well he said "change of pace guy". Sounds to me like they're looking for a 3rd down back more than a replacement for Mikel.
cstu
Footballguy
There's the problem. Detroit has no option but to get better balance if they want to win. Their RB's only ran the ball 339 times total - compared to 727 passing attempts. The only playoff team with fewer than 400 RB rushing attempts was the Packers and that didn't turn out too well for them. 250 carries for Leshoure (that's only .3 carries a game more than he averaged in 2012) and 150 for the rest of the backs doesn't seem like too much to shoot for.
kevthegrad
Footballguy
I think what you're saying has some merit - but Mikel's lack of touches is also impacted by just how often they were behind immediatley in games and the fact he missed the first 2 games.
Carter_Can_Fly
Footballguy
Yes to a certain extent.Leshoure is not a good fit for this offense as I have previously pointed out.It is like Lynch in Buffalo when everyone thought he was not very good.Bush fits this offense well, however, Leshoure will steal goaline work and his ypc will come up this year due to the new role he will fill. People will then claim that maybe he is not that bad.Dynasty league owners will have to remain patience as he will still have an opportunity in time if he improves to lead a team in touches.
cstu
Footballguy
If he's not re-signed, two years from now he'll be a 25 yo UFA. That's the same age Lynch was his first full year in Seattle.
Carter_Can_Fly
Footballguy
I can't think of a RB who has fallen harder than Leshoure in such a small amount of time.
His first year was a red shirt year due tearing his achilles tendon.
His rookie year in turn ended up being last year where he had 212 carries for 798 (3.7 ypc) yards and 9 td's with 34 receptions for 214 yards.
Now those numbers don't pop out at you but those are pretty good for a rookie coming off a bad injury.
Bell has been running well but when he finally got the start his ypc of 3.15 was meh with 20 carries for 63 yards last game.
Bush's two starts this year he averaged 3.8 ypc this year.
Maybe whoever starts and gets majority of the carries ends up with the poor ypc?
Leshoure did at times look slow and like he had lost some explosion due to the achilles, however is he a complete write off or he will get another shot on a new team in time?
His first year was a red shirt year due tearing his achilles tendon.
His rookie year in turn ended up being last year where he had 212 carries for 798 (3.7 ypc) yards and 9 td's with 34 receptions for 214 yards.
Now those numbers don't pop out at you but those are pretty good for a rookie coming off a bad injury.
Bell has been running well but when he finally got the start his ypc of 3.15 was meh with 20 carries for 63 yards last game.
Bush's two starts this year he averaged 3.8 ypc this year.
Maybe whoever starts and gets majority of the carries ends up with the poor ypc?
Leshoure did at times look slow and like he had lost some explosion due to the achilles, however is he a complete write off or he will get another shot on a new team in time?
GeeYouknit
Footballguy
I will probably still hold through the off-season for the probably less than 5% chance he goes to a different team and contributes since I'm not competing in the 1 league I own him still. Other than that it would seem he shouldn't be owned.
I haven't been watching the Lions that much but from what I read he isn't even getting 1% of the snaps so here's to hoping he will get traded somewhere and re-surges his career, but it does not look pretty for his future.
I haven't been watching the Lions that much but from what I read he isn't even getting 1% of the snaps so here's to hoping he will get traded somewhere and re-surges his career, but it does not look pretty for his future.
Carter_Can_Fly
Footballguy
He is not getting 1 percent of the snaps, because he is not even dressing. Healthy scratch the first two weeks. He does not play special teams and therefore the rookie Riddick is dressing ahead of him.
Leshoure is being phased out.
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