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The Russia Ukraine Conflict Thread (1 Viewer)

I was wondering the same thing.  Could NATO and any other coalition attack Belarus for invading a sovereign country?  It's a slap in the face to Putin, but not a direct attack on Russia.
I’m not sure what that would gain us. 
 

I approve of Biden’s decision not to use any kind of military force in this conflict. As painful as it is to watch Ukraine suffer, I think this is the only reasonable decision that can be made. We have to be the rational ones here and not allow this to escalate. 

 
Look- I see this as a huge strategic mistake by Putin. Whatever his tactical victories will be over the next few weeks, he’s going to have to govern a hostile Ukraine and he has accomplished the near impossible: unifying the west against him. It would not surprise me at all if he eventually falls over this decision. 
 

BUT- if we get involved militarily, if we send our Air Force in there or Belarus and start bombing, that changes the entire calculus. It will unite the Russian people like they haven’t been since World War II. And yes it could lead, easily, to a full blown war between ourselves and Mother Russia- which means the end of everything. So let’s not go there. 

 
Going to bed. I really appreciate the serious discussion in this thread. It’s a terrible event but there are some very thoughtful people here and not too much of the partisan silliness that pervades so many threads these days. Nice to read, thank you. 

 
Well, I mean, if you start taking over countries at some point he's going to bump into a NATO country.

If you don't want to be next to a NATO country then stop taking over countries
The best thing for all would be neutral buffer states between. NATO and Russia.  

 
Look- I see this as a huge strategic mistake by Putin. Whatever his tactical victories will be over the next few weeks, he’s going to have to govern a hostile Ukraine and he has accomplished the near impossible: unifying the west against him. It would not surprise me at all if he eventually falls over this decision. 
This is true.  Russia is largely a failed state.  I was very surprised to find that they're not even top 10 anymore in GDP.  On the world stage really they are a one truck pony - energy.

The US should aim at destabilizing the ruble and getting oil prices down. Some juicy cyber attacks would also be nice. Starve the beast.

 
Just got done watching Carlson’s show I guess.

 Such a terrible take that’s been pretty much deconstructed all over. I’m not even blaming you or are hammering  you personally at all. I just continue  to not believe what’s become of the conservative movement and talking heads in this country that people are parroting. The party of Reagan I used to be in is as dead as the Whigs.
Right.  What the hell do I know about Russia.  I only majored in International Relations in college, spent a year at the London School of Economics, visited Russia twice and spent a week at the American Embassy in Moscow.  And you know nothing about Tucker Carlson, nor do any of the Liberals in here.  If you did, you'd know that he regularly deviates from the strain of Conservatism thinking that has dominated the Republican Party for most of the last 50 years.  He doesn't tow anyone's line - not Trump or anyone else.  He eviscerated Lindsey Graham tonight.  Took him down harder than I've ever heard any Liberal do.  Not that you care to learn about these things, but Tucker's a Paleoconservative (as opposed to a Neoconservative).  I don't subscribe to all his views, but a very good argument can be made that America's policy of interventionism has been an abject failure since WWII.  I'm not advocating a complete hands-off approach, but how about something in the middle?  Something intelligent, where we establish clear lines that make sense - lines that correspond to our vital national interests.  You want to get in a ####### war with Russia?  Over Ukraine?  You'd send your son or daughter over there to fight and perhaps die for that cause?

 
Right.  What the hell do I know about Russia.  I only majored in International Relations in college, spent a year at the London School of Economics, visited Russia twice and spent a week at the American Embassy in Moscow.  And you know nothing about Tucker Carlson, nor do any of the Liberals in here.  If you did, you'd know that he regularly deviates from the strain of Conservatism thinking that has dominated the Republican Party for most of the last 50 years.  He doesn't tow anyone's line - not Trump or anyone else.  He eviscerated Lindsey Graham tonight.  Took him down harder than I've ever heard any Liberal do.  Not that you care to learn about these things, but Tucker's a Paleoconservative (as opposed to a Neoconservative).  I don't subscribe to all his views, but a very good argument can be made that America's policy of interventionism has been an abject failure since WWII.  I'm not advocating a complete hands-off approach, but how about something in the middle?  Something intelligent, where we establish clear lines that make sense - lines that correspond to our vital national interests.  You want to get in a ####### war with Russia?  Over Ukraine?  You'd send your son or daughter over there to fight and perhaps die for that cause?
This is what someone posts when they're on full tilt.

 
This is what someone posts when they're on full tilt.
Or when someone sees us careening into crazy-town, just because it's the opposite of Trump and Tucker Carlson.  You want to understand Russia?  Visit the WWII memorial in St. Petersburg, formerly Leningrad.  It's an expansive above ground / underground, very simple memorial with the names of all the people who died in the Siege of Leningrad between 1941 and 1944.  It goes on and on and on and on.  5.5 million names.  And they persevered, and went on to kick Hitler's ###.  The people in here pining for military intervention are absolutely nuts, and I'll bet my last dollar they wouldn't volunteer their children to go over there and fight.  Stick with the economic sanctions, and make it very clear to Russia that if they cross one foot into Poland we will defend them.  Better yet, send troops to Poland to make it perfectly clear.

 
Or when someone sees us careening into crazy-town, just because it's the opposite of Trump and Tucker Carlson.  You want to understand Russia?  Visit the WWII memorial in St. Petersburg, formerly Leningrad.  It's an expansive above ground / underground, very simple memorial with the names of all the people who died in the Siege of Leningrad between 1941 and 1944.  It goes on and on and on and on.  5.5 million names.  And they persevered, and went on to kick Hitler's ###.  The people in here pining for military intervention are absolutely nuts, and I'll bet my last dollar they wouldn't volunteer their children to go over there and fight.  Stick with the economic sanctions, and make it very clear to Russia that if they cross one foot into Poland we will defend them.  Better yet, send troops to Poland to make it perfectly clear.
Wait, I'm not pining for military intervention.   I would support giving arms and training to Ukraine.   And, of course, stationing troops in Poland, Latvia, etc.

 
Wait, I'm not pining for military intervention.   I would support giving arms and training to Ukraine.   And, of course, stationing troops in Poland, Latvia, etc.
👍 And yes you are correct that I’m on full tilt.  Never a good look when one posts his bona fides.  I wish I could take it back but you quoted it. 😆

 
moleculo said:
Here's an analogy, as I understand things:

Imagine Mexico sending agitators across the southern border for years - decades, even.  I'm talking political activists, paramilitary groups, and some, I assume, are also good people.  These guys get elected to power and advocate to everyone that Mexico is better and people of the Southwest would be better off as Mexican citizens.  Mexico then declares that, because a lot of people speak Spanish in New Mexico and Arizona, these states plus Colorado are independent countries and Mexico will immediately send troops to these regions to act as "peace keepers".

It's not perfect because the percentage of Russian speaking Ukranians in the Donbass is likely higher than Spanish speaking Americans in the South West, but it's probably pretty close.
It’s around the same time when Latvia and Lithuania broke away I believe.  Good stuff.

 
Snotbubbles said:
There was a thread on these boards a couple months back where I said the US should stand up to Russia even if it meant deploying troops.  The consensus then was that nobody had an appetite for escalation.  I suppose sentiment is changing now that Putin has followed through.  If the US/NATO would have increased military presence then, maybe we don't get to where we are today.  
If we hadn't led a coup there 8 years ago we probably aren't where we are today either.

 
This is true.  Russia is largely a failed state.  I was very surprised to find that they're not even top 10 anymore in GDP.  On the world stage really they are a one truck pony - energy.

The US should aim at destabilizing the ruble and getting oil prices down. Some juicy cyber attacks would also be nice. Starve the beast.
Speaking of cyber attacks, does anyone actually think that Russia isn’t going to respond to sanctions by hitting everyone with cyber attacks? Our infrastructure system is a disaster and has proven to be extremely vulnerable to cyber attack. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if huge parts of the US end up without power or other utilities.

 
It would be nice if these people could hold off on slobbering all over the dude who is lining up to kill a bunch of people in a made up war.

Kind of a bad look.
Contrary to whatever blissful world you think you live in there are bad people out there. It’s why you can’t pretend that everything is peaches and cream and sometimes you need to be tough. 

Because a bunch of softies who are aways up in their feels voted in an incompetent moron who lacks the intestinal fortitude to dissuade a monster like Putin from doing something like this - this is what you get.

This is is what you guys wanted. All of it. Three more years of this #### is what we’re going to get. 

Take your medicine. 

 

 
Speaking of cyber attacks, does anyone actually think that Russia isn’t going to respond to sanctions by hitting everyone with cyber attacks? Our infrastructure system is a disaster and has proven to be extremely vulnerable to cyber attack. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if huge parts of the US end up without power or other utilities.
First thing I would go after if I were them.

 
And this is the problem with dictators. Biden and Trump have tons of power but ultimately it’s restrained by the will of the public (except for the use of nuclear weapons, which is scary enough.) 

If humanity is to survive we can’t afford dictatorships any longer. We have to eradicate them. 
So if we survive this we need to go yo war to get rid of Russian, Chinese, Iranian, Cuban, Nicaragua, etc.   I don't think we will survive that tim.

 
Right. It’s ####ty to say but If Ukraine were this important we would have placed troops there, gotten them in NATO, etc years ago. 

Probably not that easy but it sure seems like it. 
The Ukraine is a major producer and exporter of wheat and corn. This action by Putin is going to not only interrupt the export of vital commodities it also will disrupt the production of those commodities. China who is the worlds largest importer is going to see significantly higher food prices. They are not going to like this.  Commodities that were already very high are locked in the limit up overnight. It’s not going to be just oil prices that are skyrocketing you will see it at the grocery store as well. 
 

https://www.marketplace.org/2022/02/22/ukraine-conflict-could-push-grain-prices-higher-worldwide/

Tucker Carlson is about to find out what Putin has done to us.

 
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The Ukraine is a major producer and exporter of wheat and corn. This action by Putin is going to not only interrupt the export of vital commodities it also will disrupt the production of those commodities. China who is the worlds largest importer is going to see significantly higher food prices. They are not going to like this.  Commodities that were already very high are locked in the limit up overnight. It’s not going to be just oil prices that are skyrocketing you will see it at the grocery store as well. 
 

https://www.marketplace.org/2022/02/22/ukraine-conflict-could-push-grain-prices-higher-worldwide/

Tucker Carlson is about to find out what Putin has done to us.
It's winter.  They aren't growing anything

 
China refuses to criticize Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and begins importing Russian wheat

>>China has refused to condemn Russia's attack on Ukraine Thursday, instead repeating calls for parties to "exercise restraint" and accusing the United States of "fueling fire" in the tensions.

In a Ministry of Foreign Affairs briefing that went on for more than 90 minutes, spokesperson and Assistant Minister of Foreign Affairs Hua Chunying dodged more than 11 questions regarding Russia's actions in Ukraine. They included repeated inquiries on whether Beijing would consider Russia's acts an invasion and whether they violated Ukraine's territorial integrity. 

Hua added that China would begin importing Russian wheat, a move that could ease the impact of Western sanctions on Russia. 

"The Ukraine issue has a very complicated historical background. It has evolved to the present situation due to the joint action of various factors ... security should be a matter of joint cooperation and sustainable security, and the legitimate security concerns of all parties should be respected and addressed," Hua said sticking closely to comments made the previous day. 

China is "closely following the latest situation" and calls on parties to "exercise restraint to avoid the situation getting out of control," Hua said repeatedly. 

After questions from multiple media on whether China considered Russia's moves an invasion, Hua asked reporters, "Why are you obsessed with this question?

"You can ask the US side. They keep fueling fires ... You can ask them if they have any plans to put out the fire."

On Thursday, China's customs administration also said they would begin allowing wheat imports as of February 24 from Russia. The two countries had announced an agreement earlier this month for China to import Russian wheat during Putin's visit to Beijing to meet with President Xi and attend the opening of the Beijing Winter Olympics.<<

This is what regime change looks like. Looks like Kyiv falls soon.

 
This is what China, Russian, and Iran are going to do throughout their expansionist actions. Next is Taiwan for the Chinese, and then on to the Baltic States for Russia. 

War is on, folks, we just haven't launched any missiles yet. 

 
In a rare act of public dissent against the war, the Russian newspaper Novaya Gazeta has announced that its next edition will come out in Russian and Ukrainian languages.

Dmitry Muratov, the Nobel prize-winning editor of the paper, said that “together with our grief we feel shame” about a war that he directly blamed on Vladimir Putin.

“What’s the next step?” he said. “A nuclear salvo?

“We’re going to release this next edition of Novaya Gazeta in two languages because we will never see Ukraine as an enemy or Ukrainian as the language of the enemy.”

He added a call for protests against the war.

“Only an anti-war movement of Russians in my opinion can save life on this planet.”

 
Because a bunch of softies who are aways up in their feels voted in an incompetent moron who lacks the intestinal fortitude to dissuade a monster like Putin from doing something like this - this is what you get.


Maybe you stated this earlier and I missed it because I haven't read the whole thread but I am curious as to what you think the US should do.  Are you advocating air strikes against Russia or troops on the ground in Ukraine?

 
Speaking of cyber attacks, does anyone actually think that Russia isn’t going to respond to sanctions by hitting everyone with cyber attacks? Our infrastructure system is a disaster and has proven to be extremely vulnerable to cyber attack. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if huge parts of the US end up without power or other utilities.
This would be idiotic escalation on Putin's part.  I'd be shocked if this happens.  

(This is probably what Putin is holding in reserve to deter a US military response.  He isn't going to take a step like this in response to something predictable and trivial, like economic sanctions.)

 
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Speaking of cyber attacks, does anyone actually think that Russia isn’t going to respond to sanctions by hitting everyone with cyber attacks? Our infrastructure system is a disaster and has proven to be extremely vulnerable to cyber attack. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if huge parts of the US end up without power or other utilities.
Not in this context, but I'm curious of the details the next time this happens. Insurance companies whiplashed in response to what happened with the water treatment plant in Florida. They used to be rather lax when it came to those controls, but they won't even consider renewal coverage anymore unless you're all-in. 

 
At this point, we should make it clear that any additional sanctions that we enact are permanent until Putin is removed from power. Otherwise the calculus for them just becomes about what the temporary cost is versus the permanent gains. Russia needs to be punished until Putin is sent packing.

 
I do not believe this will happen because the Chinese are aware that if they invade they risk nuclear war. I do not believe they will take that risk, since they are rational actors. I sure hope I am right about this. 

What I just described is the cornerstone of our strategy in Asia for the last 70 years: we keep the peace because of our threat of nuclear weapons is a deterrent to war. 
Obviously  Putin has calculated that Ukraine is low hanging fruit.   

Does Xi believe that he can grab Tiawan then offer some offer to Biden deal to avoid war WW3?

Unless you think this could be our opportunity to get rid of china's dictatorship.

This is what a real existential threat looks like.

 
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Maybe you stated this earlier and I missed it because I haven't read the whole thread but I am curious as to what you think the US should do.  Are you advocating air strikes against Russia or troops on the ground in Ukraine?


God no. I also dont have a good answer for you. I would have never let it get to this point to begin with. I think we have the most feeble leader our country has ever seen. Weak, feeble and SOFT people get punched in the mouth because the aggressors know there will no retaliation. 

What to do going forward? I have no idea. We dont know enough. Are Russia and China going to be the new axis powers? Is it better to take one of them out before they align in solidarity? Is that what our military industrial complex wants? 

No on a war but I fear we will be led down that path. 

 
Question for all:

Starting at around 9:20 eastern time, I'm going to be teaching a bunch of 10th grade students in my government class about foreign policy, with a focus on the current Russia-Ukraine conflict. 

What do you think is the most important takeaway I should leave them with?  These kids do not have a lot of background info on this stuff, I can't get too deep in the weeds.

 
This would be idiotic escalation on Putin's part.  I'd be shocked if this happens.  

(This is probably what Putin is holding in reserve to deter a US military response.  He isn't going to take a step like this in response to something predictable and trivial, like economic sanctions.)


How about a staged cyber attack to mislead the US public? This is the stuff Im in fear of. Its not like we haven't done it in the past. I dont trust our government under normal circumstances, I trust it less when the POTUS is asleep. 

 
Interesting Tweet:

Alexander S. Vindman

Russia’s first actions are hit or miss. It’s not looking as bad as I would have thought. Fewer cruise missile & air strikes. An early use of ground forces without reducing Ukraine’s military. We will learn a great deal about the Russian military. It seems weaker than suspected.

 
God no. I also dont have a good answer for you. I would have never let it get to this point to begin with. I think we have the most feeble leader our country has ever seen. Weak, feeble and SOFT people get punched in the mouth because the aggressors know there will no retaliation. 

What to do going forward? I have no idea. We dont know enough. Are Russia and China going to be the new axis powers? Is it better to take one of them out before they align in solidarity? Is that what our military industrial complex wants? 

No on a war but I fear we will be led down that path. 


No offense but it sounds like you have no idea what should or could have been done.  That's okay because I don't either.

Diplomacy didn't work.  Beyond economic sanctions and giving arms to Ukraine, which we have done and are doing,  there probably isn't much else we can do without using military might which you acknowledge isn't a good option.

You can go ahead and blame Biden if you want but there aren't a whole lot of options other than what we have tried and what we are doing.  

 
No offense but it sounds like you have no idea what should or could have been done.  That's okay because I don't either.

Diplomacy didn't work.  Beyond economic sanctions and giving arms to Ukraine, which we have done and are doing,  there probably isn't much else we can do without using military might which you acknowledge isn't a good option.

You can go ahead and blame Biden if you want but there aren't a whole lot of options other than what we have tried and what we are doing.  


No offense taken. I am knowledgeable about a plethora of topics but foreign policy is not one of them. 

Im not blaming Biden. Im blaming the people who voted him in. This (among many other crisis) is on them but thats a topic for another thread. 

 
Question for all:

Starting at around 9:20 eastern time, I'm going to be teaching a bunch of 10th grade students in my government class about foreign policy, with a focus on the current Russia-Ukraine conflict. 

What do you think is the most important takeaway I should leave them with?  These kids do not have a lot of background info on this stuff, I can't get too deep in the weeds.
Honestly, I would cover the mindset and personal history of Putin.  The future isn't necessarily determined by the past, but what people (and particularly the leaders) think about the past.

Churchill predicted WW2 before everyone else because he knew the mind of Hitler.  He had read Mein Kampf and knew what he thought about Jews and Russia.

Knowing Putin's mind can help predict what will happen next.  What he thinks about Ukraine-Russia is more important than the truth about Ukraine-Russia.

 

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