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The Russia Ukraine Conflict Thread (2 Viewers)

massraider said:
Can Ukrainians operate these things? 

I saw a lot of pushback looking around on Twitter regarding these A-10s
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This might be the main issue with sending these over -- only the U.S. operates A-10s right now. There are no other operators. That would almost certainly mean that American advisors would need to get involved to get Ukrainian forces ready to fly them.

Hypothetically ... perhaps a number of Ukrainian pilots could be spirited out of Ukraine and trained to operate the A-10 by U.S. advisors operating in a non-NATO nation (maybe Austria or Sweden?). Just spitballing, really ... seems tenuous.

 
Stay Calm [and stay out of it - for now]

The day may come, and sooner than we expect, when we have to fight in Europe, with all the risks that entails. If we are to plunge into a global war between the Russians and the West, however, it needs to be based on a better calculus than pure rage. (It also will require a vote of assent from all 30 NATO nations, something that is not currently even a remote possibility.)

Also, let’s remember that America is, in fact, taking action to help Ukraine and oppose Russia. Western sanctions will not save Kyiv or other Ukrainian cities tomorrow, but they are crippling the Russian economy and undermining Putin’s ability both politically and materially to seek a larger war. We are working with the rest of the world to get military assistance to the Ukrainians, who will be fighting a resistance for as long as the Russians are in their country.

More important, we are sending more forces to our allies around Ukraine. If Putin reckoned on a quick victory and a dash to the West, that dream is over. He’ll win on the ground in the short run, but in the end he’ll be lucky to get out of Ukraine with his military intact—if he’s even still in power.

Indeed, one more reason not to let our emotions get the better of us is that the only way Putin can save himself from his own fiasco is to bait the West into an attack. Nothing would help him more, at home or abroad, than if the United States or any other NATO country were to enter direct hostilities with Russian forces. Putin would then use the conflict to rally his people and threaten conventional and nuclear attacks against NATO. He would become a hero at home, and Ukraine would be forgotten.
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Is that 40 mile caravan just a complete junk pile now? Can it move or are they completely stalled?

 
jamny said:
Is that 40 mile caravan just a complete junk pile now? Can it move or are they completely stalled?
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You know, when we first heard about this thing, every comment under every tweet regarding the war was, 'dood, what about the CONVOY??? Can someone attack it please???"

It has been three days that it has been 18 miles from the city. So that's three days less food that it has. What I have read is that they have had breakdowns, and some forces have attacked it. 

 
A minority party in Russia is introducing legislation that those arrested for protesting the war in Ukraine will be conscripted into the army.  

 
I keep reminding myself (and you should remind yourself) that the end of this may be far far in the future and no one has any idea today what will happen between now and then.  So interpreting events only thru the lens of what we know today is probably a little foolish.

Having said... it seems fairly obvious that Putin bit off a lot more than he expected to do -- both in terms of Ukrainian resistance and the enormity of the world's response. 

Hopefully that's a good thing in the long run, but even if it turns out to be irrelevant (we might have fought Hitler even if the fascists in Spain had been defeated and the annexation of the Sudetenland had been opposed), we didn't do nothing and took a significant shot at stopping Putin without direct intervention in the war.

 
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Zelensky says if allies won’t enforce a no fly zone over Ukraine then they should give Ukraine warplanes: Agencies

@AVindman: Send UCAVs, now. This is not escalatory. Ukraine already receives TB-2s from Turkey. UCAVs plug a critical gap in long-range fires & replenish for the losses in the Ukraine Air Force. UCAVs can knockout Russian long-range fires… planes, helicopters, and ballistic missiles. https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1499425099996409856

 
cap'n grunge said:
Zelensky says if allies won’t enforce a no fly zone over Ukraine then they should give Ukraine warplanes: Agencies

@AVindman: Send UCAVs, now. This is not escalatory. Ukraine already receives TB-2s from Turkey. UCAVs plug a critical gap in long-range fires & replenish for the losses in the Ukraine Air Force. UCAVs can knockout Russian long-range fires… planes, helicopters, and ballistic missiles. https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1499425099996409856
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Yea I think the Russians might see it different.

 
quick-hands said:
4 minutes ago, cap'n grunge said:
Zelensky says if allies won’t enforce a no fly zone over Ukraine then they should give Ukraine warplanes: Agencies

@AVindman: Send UCAVs, now. This is not escalatory. Ukraine already receives TB-2s from Turkey. UCAVs plug a critical gap in long-range fires & replenish for the losses in the Ukraine Air Force. UCAVs can knockout Russian long-range fires… planes, helicopters, and ballistic missiles. https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1499425099996409856
Expand  
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Yea I think the Russians might see it different.
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Vindman's talking about drones (=UCAVs) and he's right. Ukraine's already getting them in now ... Vindman's just calling for more.

Of interest: Can Russia readily tell from where a drone is controlled? Anyone know?

 
jamny said:
Is that 40 mile caravan just a complete junk pile now? Can it move or are they completely stalled?
Click to expand...
There have been some reports that besides fuel/maintenance issues that there is some morale problems and some soldiers have punctured fuel tanks to prevent them from moving closer. Not sure it's been confirmed.

 
massraider said:
Can Ukrainians operate these things? 

I saw a lot of pushback looking around on Twitter regarding these A-10s
Click to expand...


These planes need air air cover to be really effective.  They are devasting when you have air superiority but while Ukraine is contesting the air think Russia is generally winning air war.  What they really need is multi-role fighters - something that can contest airspace and hit ground targets.

 
Doug B said:
Vindman's talking about drones (=UCAVs) and he's right. Ukraine's already getting them in now ... Vindman's just calling for more.

Of interest: Can Russia readily tell from where a drone is controlled? Anyone know?
Click to expand...
I understand.   Just keep getting them from anybody but us

 
Putin: “The special operation in Ukraine is going according to plan and in full compliance with the timetable. All tasks set during the special operation in Ukraine are being accomplished successfully.”

 
massraider said:
Putin: “The special operation in Ukraine is going according to plan and in full compliance with the timetable. All tasks set during the special operation in Ukraine are being accomplished successfully.”
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Meanwhile in reality, his army is starving and nearly immobile, farmers are stealing equipment, Russians are outright surrendering in surprisingly large numbers, and his economy looks like Tunguska did by the afternoon of June 30, 1908.

 
Kal El said:
Meanwhile in reality, his army is starving and nearly immobile, farmers are stealing equipment, Russians are outright surrendering in surprisingly large numbers, and his economy looks like Tunguska did by the afternoon of June 30, 1908.
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It gets worse. I read on Twitter that since there are no more chips coming in, they have to suspend all vaccinations. 😉

 
Doug B said:
Vindman's talking about drones (=UCAVs) and he's right. Ukraine's already getting them in now ... Vindman's just calling for more.

Of interest: Can Russia readily tell from where a drone is controlled? Anyone know?
Click to expand...
Great point. Cover them in Ukraine insignia and control them from out of country. (I have no idea on how far away they can be controlled.)

 
#Ukraine: Crazy footage of Territorial Defense unit in #Poltava Oblast blowing up a Russian cargo truck full of ammunition using a RPG-7 launcher and PG-7VM/S projectile. https://t.co/1nZlLar5rW

Please see comments below video for translation by my main man Dimitri

 
Phil Elliott said:
There have been some reports that besides fuel/maintenance issues that there is some morale problems and some soldiers have punctured fuel tanks to prevent them from moving closer. Not sure it's been confirmed.
Click to expand...
You ever have to spend the night in your car? Now imagine doing that four nights in a row in seats that don’t recline.

 
I hope I'm not the only one creeped out by how easily people have gotten swept up in the anti-Russian/Ukraine jingoism.  It's not that it's wrong necessarily- I oppose Russia bombing Ukraine as well.  But I view this as an inevitable response to decades of US/NATO buildup in what they view as 'their backyard.'  

I think John Mearsheimer's perspective on what he calls "great-power politics" is a sobering and correct one, and he's been arguing it for a long time.  The 2014 overthrow of Ukraine's government- sponsored by and almost certainly impossible without the help of the US- precipitated all of this and led us to where we are now.  It was like an actual 1/6. 

But reading the news stories and pop culture, it's like Putin is the existential bad guy.  People are so hungry for a simple, almost childlike narrative to explain the state of the world.  You can hardly find any mention of the 2014 coup in the RU/UKR coverage.  It's just Putin operating in a vacuum by himself, with zero culpability on the part of western powers pushing Ukraine towards being a proxy for the US/NATO.  

The West is supporting a far worse crisis in Yemen to this day.  We hardly batted an eye when Israel annexed parts of Syria and Jerusalem.  Russia's position- defending itself from what it views as foreign encroachment- is not unlike the Cuban missile crisis, when the Soviet Union was perceived to be violating the Monroe Doctrine and our territorial sovereignty.  

I've just seen so many people that literally never talk about war at all suddenly post this sort of pro-Ukraine stuff and jump on the anti-Putin bandwagon.  But this seems like an incomplete perspective if people don't recognize the actions that deliberately escalated things to this point.  You'll never see this sort of outcry for Palestinians, Syrians, Libyans, or any other predominantly brown people who have been displaced by our wars. 

But if it can be blamed on an official Bad Guy- especially if the victims look European- we get the professional waterworks, soft focus 60 Minutes packages, little facebook flags.  It just seems to suit a pro-war stature by the US/NATO, which is incredibly convenient as always.  Now circus freaks like Michael McFaul are openly calling for a no-fly zone, more drones & stinger missiles in Ukraine.  There's something real unsettling about all this and I hope I'm not the only one who sees it.  

We should be pushing for a neutral Ukraine, to quit using it as a staging ground for war with Russia.  

 
Doug B said:
Vindman's talking about drones (=UCAVs) and he's right. Ukraine's already getting them in now ... Vindman's just calling for more.

Of interest: Can Russia readily tell from where a drone is controlled? Anyone know?
Click to expand...
I don't know but speculating with all of their cyber attacks in recent years it's a distinct possibility. 

 
Doug B said:
From the looks of things ... Putin acts essentially unrestrained and the West is committed (for now) to willingly being quite restrained in response.

Does Putin de facto rule the planet right now?

Not meaning to be an argumentum ad absurdum -- meaning to address the prospect of whether or not the West has (a) identified limits within which Putin must be constrained at all costs and (b) indicated willingness to extract those costs.
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This isn’t that hard a question IMO. We go to war if Putin invades any countries that belong to NATO. 

 
ren hoek said:
I hope I'm not the only one creeped out by how easily people have gotten swept up in the anti-Russian/Ukraine jingoism.  It's not that it's wrong necessarily- I oppose Russia bombing Ukraine as well.  But I view this as an inevitable response to decades of US/NATO buildup in what they view as 'their backyard.'  

I think John Mearsheimer's perspective on what he calls "great-power politics" is a sobering and correct one, and he's been arguing it for a long time.  The 2014 overthrow of Ukraine's government- sponsored by and almost certainly impossible without the help of the US- precipitated all of this and led us to where we are now.  It was like an actual 1/6. 

But reading the news stories and pop culture, it's like Putin is the existential bad guy.  People are so hungry for a simple, almost childlike narrative to explain the state of the world.  You can hardly find any mention of the 2014 coup in the RU/UKR coverage.  It's just Putin operating in a vacuum by himself, with zero culpability on the part of western powers pushing Ukraine towards being a proxy for the US/NATO.  

The West is supporting a far worse crisis in Yemen to this day.  We hardly batted an eye when Israel annexed parts of Syria and Jerusalem.  Russia's position- defending itself from what it views as foreign encroachment- is not unlike the Cuban missile crisis, when the Soviet Union was perceived to be violating the Monroe Doctrine and our territorial sovereignty.  

I've just seen so many people that literally never talk about war at all suddenly post this sort of pro-Ukraine stuff and jump on the anti-Putin bandwagon.  But this seems like an incomplete perspective if people don't recognize the actions that deliberately escalated things to this point.  You'll never see this sort of outcry for Palestinians, Syrians, Libyans, or any other predominantly brown people who have been displaced by our wars. 

But if it can be blamed on an official Bad Guy- especially if the victims look European- we get the professional waterworks, soft focus 60 Minutes packages, little facebook flags.  It just seems to suit a pro-war stature by the US/NATO, which is incredibly convenient as always.  Now circus freaks like Michael McFaul are openly calling for a no-fly zone, more drones & stinger missiles in Ukraine.  There's something real unsettling about all this and I hope I'm not the only one who sees it.  

We should be pushing for a neutral Ukraine, to quit using it as a staging ground for war with Russia.  
Click to expand...
The Western world turning a blind eye to Yemen and Syria doesn't mean I have to believe Putin's "position". 

 
ren hoek said:
I hope I'm not the only one creeped out by how easily people have gotten swept up in the anti-Russian/Ukraine jingoism.  It's not that it's wrong necessarily- I oppose Russia bombing Ukraine as well.  But I view this as an inevitable response to decades of US/NATO buildup in what they view as 'their backyard.'  

I think John Mearsheimer's perspective on what he calls "great-power politics" is a sobering and correct one, and he's been arguing it for a long time.  The 2014 overthrow of Ukraine's government- sponsored by and almost certainly impossible without the help of the US- precipitated all of this and led us to where we are now.  It was like an actual 1/6. 

But reading the news stories and pop culture, it's like Putin is the existential bad guy.  People are so hungry for a simple, almost childlike narrative to explain the state of the world.  You can hardly find any mention of the 2014 coup in the RU/UKR coverage.  It's just Putin operating in a vacuum by himself, with zero culpability on the part of western powers pushing Ukraine towards being a proxy for the US/NATO.  

The West is supporting a far worse crisis in Yemen to this day.  We hardly batted an eye when Israel annexed parts of Syria and Jerusalem.  Russia's position- defending itself from what it views as foreign encroachment- is not unlike the Cuban missile crisis, when the Soviet Union was perceived to be violating the Monroe Doctrine and our territorial sovereignty.  

I've just seen so many people that literally never talk about war at all suddenly post this sort of pro-Ukraine stuff and jump on the anti-Putin bandwagon.  But this seems like an incomplete perspective if people don't recognize the actions that deliberately escalated things to this point.  You'll never see this sort of outcry for Palestinians, Syrians, Libyans, or any other predominantly brown people who have been displaced by our wars. 

But if it can be blamed on an official Bad Guy- especially if the victims look European- we get the professional waterworks, soft focus 60 Minutes packages, little facebook flags.  It just seems to suit a pro-war stature by the US/NATO, which is incredibly convenient as always.  Now circus freaks like Michael McFaul are openly calling for a no-fly zone, more drones & stinger missiles in Ukraine.  There's something real unsettling about all this and I hope I'm not the only one who sees it.  

We should be pushing for a neutral Ukraine, to quit using it as a staging ground for war with Russia.  
Click to expand...
There are several valid points in this post, which deserve greater discussion. But not IMO in this context, because your overall theme is flawed for one simple, pretty obvious reason: the “Bad Guy” narrative of Putin is correct. He is an evil man and he is doing evil things. We should not be concerned that the world is painting him as a bad guy. That the world is unified on this point is a good thing, its not often that we have moral clarity about anything. We have it here. 

 
ren hoek said:
I hope I'm not the only one creeped out by how easily people have gotten swept up in the anti-Russian/Ukraine jingoism.  It's not that it's wrong necessarily- I oppose Russia bombing Ukraine as well.  But I view this as an inevitable response to decades of US/NATO buildup in what they view as 'their backyard.'  

I think John Mearsheimer's perspective on what he calls "great-power politics" is a sobering and correct one, and he's been arguing it for a long time.  The 2014 overthrow of Ukraine's government- sponsored by and almost certainly impossible without the help of the US- precipitated all of this and led us to where we are now.  It was like an actual 1/6. 

But reading the news stories and pop culture, it's like Putin is the existential bad guy.  People are so hungry for a simple, almost childlike narrative to explain the state of the world.  You can hardly find any mention of the 2014 coup in the RU/UKR coverage.  It's just Putin operating in a vacuum by himself, with zero culpability on the part of western powers pushing Ukraine towards being a proxy for the US/NATO.  

The West is supporting a far worse crisis in Yemen to this day.  We hardly batted an eye when Israel annexed parts of Syria and Jerusalem.  Russia's position- defending itself from what it views as foreign encroachment- is not unlike the Cuban missile crisis, when the Soviet Union was perceived to be violating the Monroe Doctrine and our territorial sovereignty.  

I've just seen so many people that literally never talk about war at all suddenly post this sort of pro-Ukraine stuff and jump on the anti-Putin bandwagon.  But this seems like an incomplete perspective if people don't recognize the actions that deliberately escalated things to this point.  You'll never see this sort of outcry for Palestinians, Syrians, Libyans, or any other predominantly brown people who have been displaced by our wars. 

But if it can be blamed on an official Bad Guy- especially if the victims look European- we get the professional waterworks, soft focus 60 Minutes packages, little facebook flags.  It just seems to suit a pro-war stature by the US/NATO, which is incredibly convenient as always.  Now circus freaks like Michael McFaul are openly calling for a no-fly zone, more drones & stinger missiles in Ukraine.  There's something real unsettling about all this and I hope I'm not the only one who sees it.  

We should be pushing for a neutral Ukraine, to quit using it as a staging ground for war with Russia.  
Click to expand...


Putin invaded a sovereign nation unprovoked in an attempt to start rebuilding the Soviet Empire.

Sorry if that's too child-like of a reaction but there is absolutely no reason to do so. He's provacative and dangerous and needs to be neutered.

That doesn't excuse prior or current behaviors by any country. There was no need for this action. It's cruel and base. Greed and power. That's it.

 
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ren hoek said:
I hope I'm not the only one creeped out by how easily people have gotten swept up in the anti-Russian/Ukraine jingoism.  It's not that it's wrong necessarily- I oppose Russia bombing Ukraine as well.  But I view this as an inevitable response to decades of US/NATO buildup in what they view as 'their backyard.'  

I think John Mearsheimer's perspective on what he calls "great-power politics" is a sobering and correct one, and he's been arguing it for a long time.  The 2014 overthrow of Ukraine's government- sponsored by and almost certainly impossible without the help of the US- precipitated all of this and led us to where we are now.  It was like an actual 1/6. 

But reading the news stories and pop culture, it's like Putin is the existential bad guy.  People are so hungry for a simple, almost childlike narrative to explain the state of the world.  You can hardly find any mention of the 2014 coup in the RU/UKR coverage.  It's just Putin operating in a vacuum by himself, with zero culpability on the part of western powers pushing Ukraine towards being a proxy for the US/NATO.  

The West is supporting a far worse crisis in Yemen to this day.  We hardly batted an eye when Israel annexed parts of Syria and Jerusalem.  Russia's position- defending itself from what it views as foreign encroachment- is not unlike the Cuban missile crisis, when the Soviet Union was perceived to be violating the Monroe Doctrine and our territorial sovereignty.  

I've just seen so many people that literally never talk about war at all suddenly post this sort of pro-Ukraine stuff and jump on the anti-Putin bandwagon.  But this seems like an incomplete perspective if people don't recognize the actions that deliberately escalated things to this point.  You'll never see this sort of outcry for Palestinians, Syrians, Libyans, or any other predominantly brown people who have been displaced by our wars. 

But if it can be blamed on an official Bad Guy- especially if the victims look European- we get the professional waterworks, soft focus 60 Minutes packages, little facebook flags.  It just seems to suit a pro-war stature by the US/NATO, which is incredibly convenient as always.  Now circus freaks like Michael McFaul are openly calling for a no-fly zone, more drones & stinger missiles in Ukraine.  There's something real unsettling about all this and I hope I'm not the only one who sees it.  

We should be pushing for a neutral Ukraine, to quit using it as a staging ground for war with Russia.  
Click to expand...
A similar view from Rob Lee, former Marine, PhD student in King's College War Studies Department who spent a few years in Russia. Russia is especially concerned about the potential for developing missiles in Ukraine that could reach population centers in Russia. Putin is very rational based on this analysis, contrary to what Rubio and others imply. The collective international sanctions may or may not work.

https://www.fpri.org/article/2022/01/moscows-compellence-strategy/

 
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