The Russia Ukraine Conflict Thread (1 Viewer)

[timschochet]

So you are against any sort of sanctions? I dont think its a stretch to say that imposing sanctions has caused a 5% chance. Heck, I'd argue that Putin simply existing causes a 1-2% chance.

It’s a huge stretch to suggest that sanctions have caused a 5% chance of a nuclear war. It was zero, it’s still zero. 

 

[massraider]

His segment on Fox:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HUnGxac1ZjE&t=5s

Not sure about his opinion on Putin but basically saying that Ukraine cannot win this war and that they would be better off coming to terms/ surrendering

I'm not sure he is wrong

Russia didn't sign up for a war. Russia signed up for an intimidation campaign of a president that had a low approval rating (people can google Zelensky+Panama+Papers if they like), and what they thought was a population/military that was as weak as it was in 2014. Putin also thought the Ukrainians wanted to be Russians. He thought they would kick out a weak president, and install a friendly government. There were some Crimeans who wanted to be Russians in 2014, but Putin thought everyone else felt the same. He was wrong. Very wrong. 

What I did not know when this thing started was that after 2014, the Ukrainians got serious about their defense, and they were only worried about Russia invading. A lot of people came in gave them support defensively, but it was the most powerful and advanced military (USA)  that was training them. This whole Territorial Defense Army, or whatever it's called? They didn't come up with that last week. That has been in motion since Crimea. Ukrainians didn't think Russia would actually invade till the last minute, almost no one did (except for US Intelligence really). But when it happened, Ukraine had a plan. 

Can Ukraine win, military vs. military? No, I don't think so. But there are other variables at play. Like Russia's economy, and the fact that everyone and their cousin is lined up to pump as much aid as possible through Poland and Romania as they can. Plus, you know, Afghanistan. Except this time, Russia has a weaker army, and the Western world is arming the home team. 

There are going to be some bad, bad days ahead for the Ukrainian people. Terrible. 

But Russia cannot win this war firing stuff in from the border. Actual humans are going to have to drive those streets, and take cities, with every building having one guy with an RPG, and 20 people holding AK-47's and Molotov cocktails. 

 

[Kal El]

His segment on Fox:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HUnGxac1ZjE&t=5s

Not sure about his opinion on Putin but basically saying that Ukraine cannot win this war and that they would be better off coming to terms/ surrendering

I'm not sure he is wrong

Is this guy paying zero attention to reality at all? Russia is not winning, and coming to terms does nothing. The Ukraine gets all its land back pre 2014, and Russia gets nothing!

 

[skol asylum]

*sigh*

We should probably be thankful no one on the call  thought the it was over, and started masturbating furiously on camera.

One of my coworkers was on a zoom call a few days ago where some dude was calling in from his hotel room and was talking away. In the background a naked woman goes walking past and into the bathroom. Nobody said a word when it happened I guess. Wondered if he might have been one of a few who noticed. You know how some of those calls go. He sent us a couple of us a phone video of the clip. You could really only see her back and butt. Later they added a black bar at bottom of the screen which covered her butt on the recording and soon after that just had a black screen with his audio.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Russia didn't sign up for a war. Russia signed up for an intimidation campaign of a president that had a low approval rating (people can google Zelensky+Panama+Papers if they like), and what they thought was a population/military that was as weak as it was in 2014. Putin also thought the Ukrainians wanted to be Russians. He thought they would kick out a weak president, and install a friendly government. There were some Crimeans who wanted to be Russians in 2014, but Putin thought everyone else felt the same. He was wrong. Very wrong. 

What I did not know when this thing started was that after 2014, the Ukrainians got serious about their defense, and they were only worried about Russia invading. A lot of people came in gave them support defensively, but it was the most powerful and advanced military (USA)  that was training them. This whole Territorial Defense Army, or whatever it's called? They didn't come up with that last week. That has been in motion since Crimea. Ukrainians didn't think Russia would actually invade till the last minute, almost no one did (except for US Intelligence really). But when it happened, Ukraine had a plan. 

Can Ukraine win, military vs. military? No, I don't think so. But there are other variables at play. Like Russia's economy, and the fact that everyone and their cousin is lined up to pump as much aid as possible through Poland and Romania as they can. Plus, you know, Afghanistan. Except this time, Russia has a weaker army, and the Western world is arming the home team. 

There are going to be some bad, bad days ahead for the Ukrainian people. Terrible. 

But Russia cannot win this war firing stuff in from the border. Actual humans are going to have to drive those streets, and take cities, with every building having one guy with an RPG, and 20 people holding AK-47's and Molotov cocktails. 

Very well said

 

[SoBeDad]

Let's see how Europe's reliance Russia's natural gas pans out. In the thread below, you can see that Europe is still paying Russia, now I guess at inflated prices. One likely outcome is reduced reliance in the future by countries like Germany. Trade between countries usually decreases the threat of conflict.

>>Thread: Europe is unprepared if Russia's gas taps are turned off, threatening to leave consumers cold and factories idle by next winter.<<

https://twitter.com/georgikantchev/status/1500062037501698049?t=ubr2nwi7ia9jiEAWgkdQRQ&s=19

 

[massraider]

https://twitter.com/timkmak/status/1500242165892583425

And these teenagers!  Look at these kids. 

 

[massraider]

Володимир Зеленський

@ZelenskyyUa

Talked to @elonmusk. I’m grateful to him for supporting Ukraine with words and deeds. Next week we will receive another batch of Starlink systems for destroyed cities. Discussed possible space projects . But I’ll talk about this after the war.

Still a comedian.

 

[djmich]

It’s a huge stretch to suggest that sanctions have caused a 5% chance of a nuclear war. It was zero, it’s still zero. 

It was never zero and still isn’t.  Not sure about 5% but folks that toss around “never” and “zero” just don’t understand probabilities.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Zelensky Unlocks His Presidential Troll Badge 

Solid work.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Mastercard and Visa suspend all Russian operations.

 

[massraider]

https://twitter.com/VarunVira_/status/1500218416426274821

Super interesting from

@Gerjon_ . On @C4ADS @icarus_flights

we count 363 flights into the airport thought to be #Ukraine resupply hub since Feb 24th, when the war began (previously avg of 1 departure flight per day)

That's a lot of Javelins and MANPADS, baby

 

[The Z Machine]

Let's see how Europe's reliance Russia's natural gas pans out. In the thread below, you can see that Europe is still paying Russia, now I guess at inflated prices. One likely outcome is reduced reliance in the future by countries like Germany. Trade between countries usually decreases the threat of conflict.

>>Thread: Europe is unprepared if Russia's gas taps are turned off, threatening to leave consumers cold and factories idle by next winter.<<

https://twitter.com/georgikantchev/status/1500062037501698049?t=ubr2nwi7ia9jiEAWgkdQRQ&s=19

That's the price that they will pay to get rid of Putin. The US and Canada and other gas exporters need to step up.  Germany voluntarily turn off their pipelines to Russia. 

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Alan Rappeport 2h

At one point during his emotional presentation, Zelensky paused to ask one of the American lawmakers to mute themselves. “Senator Rick Scott, please mute your mic,” he said. twitter.com/ft/status/1500…

Details please

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Is it assumed the people on the ground in Ukraine are likely CIA? They like to show a group of US military veterans volunteering to go to Poland but I am assuming these special forces are likely CIA.

SVR-The Russian Foreign Intelligence Service

SVR assured that Poland has recently become a logistics center for weapons supplies and sending mercenaries to Ukraine.

The Russian Foreign Intelligence Service also indicated that the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), and the Special Operations Command continue to train new combat units in the Middle East and Africa.

 

[cosjobs]

Details please

Someone gave the full quote below. He did not actually call him by name and I did not have the full quote when posting this. 

 

[Atomic Punk]

It was never zero and still isn’t.  Not sure about 5% but folks that toss around “never” and “zero” just don’t understand probabilities.

Agree 100%. There is never a zero percent chance when discussing human behaviour. How many atrocities does one need to see to come to that realization?

 

[Gopher State]

It’s a huge stretch to suggest that sanctions have caused a 5% chance of a nuclear war. It was zero, it’s still zero. 

What if we give them fighter jets? No pilot’s.  Would that be enough to trigger a nuclear attack?

 

[fatguyinalittlecoat]

Guys, don’t worry about nuclear war, @timschochetis very good at making predictions.

 

[Atomic Punk]

The other aspect that intrigues me is this NATO versus non-NATO discussion and the absolutes that some think that brings. If Russia were to attack Brazil or Mexico, I have a feeling their non-NATO status would make the US react somewhat differently than they are right now.

 

[massraider]

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/05/white-house-deal-fighter-jets-ukraine-00014424

Getting jets to Ukraine is a pain in the nuts

 

[Phil Elliott]

It’s a huge stretch to suggest that sanctions have caused a 5% chance of a nuclear war. It was zero, it’s still zero. 

If they exist, the odds are not zero. They might be low but not zero.

 

[The Big Donkey]

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/05/white-house-deal-fighter-jets-ukraine-00014424

Getting jets to Ukraine is a pain in the nuts

"As Poland weighed sending its warplanes to Ukraine last week, Warsaw asked the White House if the Biden administration could guarantee it would provide them with U.S.-made fighter jets to fill the gap. The White House said it would look into the matter."

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

ISW's update is worth a read.

Key Takeaways

• Russian forces conducted no major offensive operations against the cities of Kyiv, Kharkiv, or Mykolayiv in the past 24 hours;
  
• Russian troops continued to encircle, bomb, and shell Mariupol;
  
• Russian forces east of Kharkiv and in northern Luhansk Oblast appear to be trying to link up;
  
• Russian troops around Kherson city are likely preparing to resume offensive operations against Mykolayiv and ultimately Odesa; and
  
• Russian naval infantry in Crimea continue to prepare for amphibious operations, which would most likely occur near Odesa.
  

 

[Phil Elliott]

"As Poland weighed sending its warplanes to Ukraine last week, Warsaw asked the White House if the Biden administration could guarantee it would provide them with U.S.-made fighter jets to fill the gap. The White House said it would look into the matter."

US probably really said "Let us look into it and we will circle back with you."

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

So, there's some fairly convincing buzz that Poland is going to provide MIG-s and SU-s to Ukraine and in return the US will provide F-15s, F-16s and A-10s to Poland.

Here's the most reputable report I could find.

Mark Hertling@MarkHertling
Back on in a few with @PamelaBrownCNN for some breaking news. The Polish-Ukraine military connection forged in Afghanistan under ISAF, and in the various exercises in Europe, is about to come together again with “lend lease” equipment.

ETA: here's a better report.

 

[GregR]

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-nuclear-official-kamlavandi-says-god-willing-there-will-be-an-understanding-2022-03-05/

VIENNA, March 5 (Reuters) - Russia's demand for written U.S. guarantees that sanctions on Moscow would not harm Russian cooperation with Iran is "not constructive" for talks between Tehran and global powers to revive a 2015 nuclear deal, a senior Iranian official said on Saturday.

...

"Russians had put this demand on the table (at the Vienna talks) since two days ago. There is an understanding that by changing its position in Vienna talks Russia wants to secure its interests in other places. This move is not constructive for Vienna nuclear talks," said the Iranian official in Tehran, speaking to Reuters.

Excuse me while I go to the whiteboard where it reads:  It has been 8954 days since cheering something Iran did.  And change the number to 0.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Thinking about the nukes thing and @Maurile Tremblay's post today, I had the thought that if you think you're going to fight Russia one way or another -- make Putin attack you somewhere other than Ukraine.  Don't give them the fight there, but draw them out by doing the planes stuff above and tightening the sanctions.  Escalate indirectly.  Stay on your side of the border and make him come to you if he doesn't like it. 

It takes away the Russian doctrine of using nukes to defend Russian soil, makes it obvious where the aggression is really coming from, retains some of the moral high ground, and ensures public support for war if it does come. 

Not too different from FDR with Lend/Lease and the oil embargo of Japan, leading up to Pearl Harbor.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I can't link WSJ, but apparently they're saying the same thing:

@UaOpir·16m

Poland can provide Ukraine with MiG-29 fighters and Su-25 attack aircraft, in exchange for F-16 fighters from the United States, reports The Wall Street Journal, citing sources in the US administration.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

American Veterans Join the Fight in Ukraine

All across the United States, small groups of military veterans are gathering, planning and getting passports in order. After years of serving in smoldering occupations, trying to spread democracy in places that had only a tepid interest in it, many are hungry for what they see as a righteous fight to defend freedom against an autocratic aggressor with a conventional and target-rich army.

 

[massraider]

I can't link WSJ, but apparently they're saying the same thing:

@UaOpir·16m

Poland can provide Ukraine with MiG-29 fighters and Su-25 attack aircraft, in exchange for F-16 fighters from the United States, reports The Wall Street Journal, citing sources in the US administration.

https://newlinesmag.com/reportage/is-poland-sending-fighter-jets-to-ukraine/

I have a feeling we are going to see some tweets from some military types explaining why this is hard to do. 

 

[foxco]

I can't link WSJ, but apparently they're saying the same thing:

@UaOpir·16m

Poland can provide Ukraine with MiG-29 fighters and Su-25 attack aircraft, in exchange for F-16 fighters from the United States, reports The Wall Street Journal, citing sources in the US administration.

Hopefully this can get done like real soon. I feel like time is running out.

 

[The Big Donkey]

a hash oil vape cartridge in her carry-on

Should I have not done that? I tell you, I gotta plead ignorance on this thing because if anyone had said anything to me at all when I first started here that that sort of thing was frowned upon, you know, 'cause I've worked in a lot of offices and I tell you people do that all the time.

 

[massraider]

Bayraktar Music Video 

yessirrrr

 

[Alonzo Mosely]

I see a lot of complaining that Rubio and Daines posted a screenshot of a zoom call with Zelensky. Some saying the ambassador asked them not to post anything until after the call and that doing so put his life at risk.

I don't get it. What does posting a screenshot of the meeting ?

https://twitter.com/MeidasTouch/status/1500140589437751296?s=20&t=XKuS73T3QxBSO3FIi73Xtw

https://twitter.com/fake_biden/status/1500200963872722944

 

[Alonzo Mosely]

Feb 27th-CNN

I just want to share that despite typically turning on FOX for quick info, CNN has had my undivided attention at times. I have not watched them in years, disagree with a lot of their takes but they have had some serious real time interviews and people in the field over in Ukraine, ambassadors for Ukraine, Israel, many countries. 

Carry On 

-She shoulda left already is what I'm saying

She's been in custody since Feb 5th or 6th

 

[joffer]

o little Marco..

 

[Alonzo Mosely]

Wait.  I'm the only one who thinks this story is complete bull####?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TYPCgu-6N68

 

[Alonzo Mosely]

I was curious as to what she made, not sure if it was accurate but the links I found suggested her WNBA salary this past year was $228,000.  So this is definitely a choice to go play and earn additional money.

That sounds about right, she gets the WNBA max.  She was getting $1.5M in Moscow.  She got like $600k for 3 months in China few years ago

 

[Alonzo Mosely]

They're actually paid pretty darn good here - $120K is the AVERAGE salary for a WNBA player in a league that LOSES 10 million dollars a year and wouldn't be around if it weren't subsidized by the NBA.

But, we should probably discuss this in a different thread.

There's a reason the WNBA plays in the summer.  They can't compete with any of the Euro leagues as far as salary.

 

[Kal El]

ISW's update is worth a read.

Key Takeaways

• Russian forces conducted no major offensive operations against the cities of Kyiv, Kharkiv, or Mykolayiv in the past 24 hours;
  
• Russian troops continued to encircle, bomb, and shell Mariupol;
  
• Russian forces east of Kharkiv and in northern Luhansk Oblast appear to be trying to link up;
  
• Russian troops around Kherson city are likely preparing to resume offensive operations against Mykolayiv and ultimately Odesa; and
  
• Russian naval infantry in Crimea continue to prepare for amphibious operations, which would most likely occur near Odesa.
  

I think I saw something that of all the places to try an amphibious landing, Odessa is one of the worst. Something about it funneling landing craft into sections of beach and making it super hard for the invaders. I get that the Russians are apparently trying a speedrun on Legendary difficulty, but they’re getting worse each day, not better.

 

[The Big Donkey]

There's a reason the WNBA plays in the summer.  They can't compete with any of the Euro leagues as far as salary.

10 years at best @120k,   need to be smart with that money.   not surprised at all these women go overseas.   need a plan for post career.   

edit: and i love your username. one of my favorite movies.

 

[The Z Machine]

I think I saw something that of all the places to try an amphibious landing, Odessa is one of the worst. Something about it funneling landing craft into sections of beach and making it super hard for the invaders. I get that the Russians are apparently trying a speedrun on Legendary difficulty, but they’re getting worse each day, not better.

Why wouldn't they use cruise missiles to soften up and defenses in Odesa?

 

[massraider]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXEvbVoDiU0

 

[dschuler]

One of my business partners is Turkish and travels to Istanbul twice a year. He tells me that Istanbul has MANY Russians and Ukranians living there- whole neighborhoods of each. 

I’ve been to Antalya Turkey a couple times.  Lots of Russians, good to find them if you are looking for activities, or so I’ve heard.

 

[Kal El]

Why wouldn't they use cruise missiles to soften up and defenses in Odesa?

A normal army wouldn’t attempt a naval landing on beaches right up against a bustling city, because it bottles the invaders up and turns into a shooting gallery. That’s why nobody is going to invade New York by sea. However, Russia absolutely sucks at strategy, and so ideally, the Ukraine will have everything it has in the area pointed at those beaches, if the Russians are in fact dumb enough to go ashore there.

That’s not even mentioning that a lot of their landing craft aren’t that great to begin with. I don’t have Twitter, so I couldn’t tell you who broke it down on there, but it seems that Russia showed up to War Strategies 101 and decided “What if we took all these strategies and did the polar opposite? Surely that would work!”

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

The Kyiv Independent@KyivIndependent

Voice of America: 3,000 U.S. volunteers have responded to Ukraine’s call for people to serve in an international battalion that will help resist Russia’s all-out invasion, a representative of the Ukrainian Embassy in Washington told VOA.

Again, grain of salt.  

 

[Cowboysfan8]

Posted yesterday. Same situation in US, does our Congress hang around?

@kiraincongress: When going through #Kyiv and showing MP id, people are like: no #####, we thought you guys left already.
We did not leave. We are here with our nation. Working together, fighting together, and we will win - together.#StandWithUkraine
@lesiavasylenko @OsadchukAndrii @GoncharenkoUa https://twitter.com/kiraincongress/status/1499705465185439753/video/1

Same situation in US. Are you going to be thankful that all of the ‘Assault Rifles’ havent been banned?

 

[The General]

Same situation in US. Are you going to be thankful that all of the ‘Assault Rifles’ havent been banned?

I don’t see a scenario where we are invaded in this manner.

 

[cosjobs]

Why wouldn't they use cruise missiles to soften up and defenses in Odesa?

you can't bomb currents