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The Russia Ukraine Conflict Thread (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter supermike80
- Start date
themeistersinger
Footballguy
The Next 10 Days Will Decide This War
https://cepa.org/the-next-10-days-will-decide-this-war/
Written by a retired Major General
https://cepa.org/the-next-10-days-will-decide-this-war/
Written by a retired Major General
timschochet
Footballguy
OK this is the compromise I would suggest if I was Biden:
1. Russia removes its military forces from Ukraine (not including Crimea).
2. Ukraine agrees not to join NATO for the next 20 years.
3. The areas of Crimea and the two other “independent” states will be settled by a plebiscite (vote) to be supervised by the United Nations.
3. All trade with Russia is resumed, all sanctions lifted. However a 10% tax is imposed on this trade for the next 10 years, the money going to pay for rebuilding Ukraine.
It’s not great in terms of justice but maybe it might work. Best I got anyhow.
1. Russia removes its military forces from Ukraine (not including Crimea).
2. Ukraine agrees not to join NATO for the next 20 years.
3. The areas of Crimea and the two other “independent” states will be settled by a plebiscite (vote) to be supervised by the United Nations.
3. All trade with Russia is resumed, all sanctions lifted. However a 10% tax is imposed on this trade for the next 10 years, the money going to pay for rebuilding Ukraine.
It’s not great in terms of justice but maybe it might work. Best I got anyhow.
GregR
Footballguy
I don't recall seeing anything about this posted earlier, apologies if so. But one of the articles mentioned a mutiny on a Russian ship. I went looking and found this from early March:
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/russian-troops-in-disarray-crying-26363358
Morale appears to be low with Ukraine media reporting there was a mutiny on a Russian ship that refused to attack the Ukrainian port of Odessa.
Before an all-out assault was to start, the Russians radioed Ukrainian defenders to say they would not attack and asked to be allowed to leave the bay unharmed.
Former-Ukrainian diplomat Olexander Scherba, wrote on Twitter : "Last night a large group of Russian warships was about to launch landing on Odesa beaches.
"They approached the coast. Russia was about to shell the beach. Ukraine was about to shoot back when they suddenly withdrew. Reports that marines from Crimea refused to attack Odessa."
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/russian-troops-in-disarray-crying-26363358
Morale appears to be low with Ukraine media reporting there was a mutiny on a Russian ship that refused to attack the Ukrainian port of Odessa.
Before an all-out assault was to start, the Russians radioed Ukrainian defenders to say they would not attack and asked to be allowed to leave the bay unharmed.
Former-Ukrainian diplomat Olexander Scherba, wrote on Twitter : "Last night a large group of Russian warships was about to launch landing on Odesa beaches.
"They approached the coast. Russia was about to shell the beach. Ukraine was about to shoot back when they suddenly withdrew. Reports that marines from Crimea refused to attack Odessa."
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
When they aren’t selling their mailing lists to the DNC they can be pretty good. That narrator has a helluva voice too.
Rich Conway
Footballguy
The problem here is it doesn't prevent Russia from building its military and trying again in a couple years. If I'm Ukraine, the NATO thing would be a non-starter as its the only thing that can keep Russia from doing this again.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Capella
Footballguy
massraider
Footballguy
He didn't say the Ukraine didn't want in, or he was agreeing to never join. He said it understood it wasn't going to happen.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/15/kyiv-facing-dangerous-moment-amid-signs-of-russias-tightening-grip
This, of course, doesn't really matter, as the NATO thing was an excuse.
What if Ukraine said we are continuing our application to NATO, but agree to never have nukes in Ukraine?
Anyone think Putin agrees to immediately withdraw his troops? NOPE.
massraider
Footballguy
Jim Sciutto
Happy to hear allies are stepping up their game, like to know why it didn't happen sooner, but I am sure it's not as easy as all that.
Jayrod
Footballguy
This is one thing that really concerns me about the whole situation.
Even if they come to some kind of cease fire agreement, do we honestly believe that Putin will abide by it if he hasn't met all of his objectives? I don't trust he'd stick to anything, so giving up any future ability to defend oneself or to join group x or y seems like a foolish idea. Putin can claim it is for his country's defense, but we all know it is so he has a weaker nation to invade as was the case with Ukraine this whole time. It's not that he didn't want NATO next door, its that he didn't want NATO in a place where he wanted to invade and has been planning to all this time.
massraider
Footballguy
I'm seeing lists of binding things Ukraine should agree to, and not really seeing what protects Ukraine in the future.
"--and why should we trust Putin to abide by this??" needs to be added to any concession people think Russia should make. He attacked a peaceful nation, unprovoked, and has committed war crimes there.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
So the idea here (I think) is that everything in the agreement sounds positive for Russia and lets Putin save face, but the stuff left unsaid is a mill around Russia's neck.
Ukraine says: NATO failed us, it's not even worth joining anymore, we promise not to join. Then Ukraine joins the EU, signs security guarantees with EU and NATO countries, and is armed to the teeth with defensive weapons.
Ukraine says: Russia will with draw back to January positions (i.e. Russia stays in Crimea and Russia's henchmen still dominate the eastern regions). Then Ukraine's allies keep the sanctions in place for years -- unless Russia withdraws.
etc.
Captain Cranks
Footballguy
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
They need a better interpreter for this address.
Was just going to say this. Would be much more effective if he was speaking English or the interpreter was better.
massraider
Footballguy
yes
Captain Cranks
Footballguy
He's definitely trying to pull on heart strings.
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
Damn. That video was powerful.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Who’s clapping at the end of that? It’s not a friggin movie premiere.
massraider
Footballguy
I wouldn't be surprised if he keeps pushing for the no fly zone simply to ensure he gets everything else.
Captain Cranks
Footballguy
Summer Wheat
Footballguy
The Russian military for all the parades, $$$$$ and manpower invested is not the mighty force the world thought.
Without nuclear weapons as the Aces in the hole NATO countries would move in and crush them
David Dodds
Administrator
It's ridiculous that the world sits idly by as Ukraine burns because the bully has nukes. Do we engage when Russia controls the whole Baltic Sea? Do we intervene when they take back Poland?
This is weak leadership by the world. Time to blow up the convoy and show a united world against this aggression.
This is weak leadership by the world. Time to blow up the convoy and show a united world against this aggression.
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Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Can you explain why Russia would do this? This seems like a deal they would take if they were losing a war.
Capella
Footballguy
Also makes it easier to say that see, nato won’t even help us, what do we need them for
Captain Cranks
Footballguy
This is from a few days ago so sorry if honda, but a nice piece on Russia's logistics issues.
The failed logistics of Russia's invasion
The failed logistics of Russia's invasion
The General
Footballguy
I’d be for this if they attacked Poland, other NATO country. At the moment we are responding properly.
Didn’t know that crippling Russia’s economy counted as “sitting idly by.” How are they going to feed that army with no money or goods?
moleculo
Footballguy
No. Poland and the Baltic states are members of NATO. An attack on them is to be considered an attack on us.
Zelenskyy
The General
Footballguy
Captain Cranks
Footballguy
I wonder how long the bravado lasts after they hear a nuke has been launched from a Russian submarine in the Atlantic.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
I get that it would be extremely gratifying to see a few F-16s come out of nowhere and wipe out the Russian ground forces. But would you be ok with the West coast being wiped off the map in response? This isn’t a movie.
David Dodds
Administrator
But they have nukes!!!!! We can't engage with the bullies. They have nukes.
You want to show force, cut off all internet to/from Russia and while they contemplate how that impacts them, blow up their damn convoy.
Captain Cranks
Footballguy
Formal request for eyeroll emoji.
massraider
Footballguy
Vladimir Putin: Not Looking For an Offramp
David Dodds
Administrator
So explain to me how this argument changes when they are taking Poland and the Baltic Sea. Russia has nuclear options right now if they want to take them. They could cite our aggressive sanctions led them to escalate to nukes.
I stand by my comment that the world is allowing Russia to take Ukraine and it's disgusting.
Hiding behind NATO being the line to cross is simply cowardice.
Chaz McNulty
Footballguy
They may not be physically losing the war, but Russia is not in a good situation at all. And they know that trying to occupy Ukraine would be nearly impossible.
The General
Footballguy
This is what the world is trying to avoid.
No one wants to see Ukraine or any country invaded.
joffer
Footballguy
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Theres a long history between Russia and Ukraine that I personally won’t get in the middle of but I’m one who doesn’t think the US should be the world policeman. There are plenty of places in the world where atrocities occur. We have protection agreements with other NATO countries, Russia knows that. So engaging with one of them is akin to attacking us. We would be forced to react, nukes or not. This isn’t that. But hey if you think everyone’s being a coward, step out from behind the keyboard and grab a rifle. They are taking volunteers.
moleculo
Footballguy
Russia is cutting off their own internet to keep their people in the dark about what is happening. As for the convoy - that is stuck and bogged down. like 10% of Russias Ukraine forces are stuck in a 40 mile long traffic jam, with no gas and no food. No need to worry about blowing it up right now - focus attention on the guns shooting at you.
We have nukes too. Russia knows this. That is why they won't attack Poland or the Baltics.
Calm down. Russia is doing poorly right now. Let them continue doing poorly.
Kumerica
Footballguy
Global Network Worker: [On his radio] Yeah, Central?
Manager: Yeah?
Global Network Worker: This is Walt, down at Nakatomi. Listen, would it be possible for you to turn off Internet Grid 2-12?
Manager: Are you crazy?
Dwayne T. Robinson: [Quietly in the background] Maybe I should call the UN on this...
Global Network Worker: No ####, it's my ###! I got a big problem down here. Shut it down. Shut it down, NOW!
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David Dodds
Administrator
I did not say the US. I said the world. Give the planes to Poland. They know what to do with them. Coordinate a convoy attack with drones from many parts of the world. Cut off the internet so Russia truly is isolated. Freeze all of the crypto accounts in Russia. Make it illegal to convert rubles to any other currency.
The General
Footballguy
If Poland is then draw in we are in since they are in our alliance. It's a very small path we are having to navigate.
I think much of the financial and internet issues you bring up our being done, at least things that we can control.
jamny
Footballguy
In the beginning of all this, you could accept that maybe some of the Russian forces didn't know what they were getting into but at this point, as they hold 500 hostages at a hospital, there's no longer an excuse. None of their soldiers should believe they are liberating Ukraine from their Nazi overlords anymore.
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