The Trent Richardson Thread (2 Viewers)

[Kool-Aid Larry]

I keep checking this thread for some relevant insight and/or information to no avail.

I'd say he sux is not only relevant, insightful, and informative, but also concise.

would it be better if I puked a half dozen more paragraphs on the page?

 

[cloppbeast]

I keep checking this thread for some relevant insight and/or information to no avail.

I'd say he sux is not only relevant, insightful, and informative, but also concise.

would it be better if I puked a half dozen more paragraphs on the page?

It was concise on page 30. Now it's nauseating.

 

[Raider Nation]

A 67-page discussion about a below-average RB fascinates me.

 

[VaTerp]

Its so easy to identify the butt hurt people who were burned last year by Richardson. I'm going to with hold judgement until a real game has been played. I drafted him as my rb3 or 4 depending on how you rank s Jackson in a 12 team standard draft

I think it's far easier to tell who owns Richardson in this thread than it is anyone who was "burned" by him. But I HATE how so many conversations here devolve into subjective BS based on FF ownership, perceived or real. I'd like to think that most of us are capable of objectively offering our observations and opinions on players regardless of whether or not he's on our rosters.

FWIW I have never owned Richardson. I thought he was overrated coming out of Bama and the price to acquire has always been well above my liking. As I posted the other week I'm somewhat intrigued by him this year b/c I do think he offers some upside if you can get him at a discount from his consensus ADP and price.

But at the end of the day, I just don't think he's a good NFL RB. That is based solely on my observations and has nothing to do with owning him or not owning him or being burned by previously having him on my roster.

 

[stbugs]

Everyone grabbing Bradshaw are going to be disappointed this year.

Bradshaw is going as RB55 at pick 15.11 (179th overall) -- no one is expecting much of anything. He's a late round flyer for people who want to fade Richardson. If he does literally anything, it's a positive return on a pick that late.

Richardson in the mid-5th as your RB2 is the potentially massive disappointment, just on relative price if nothing else.

If you want to talk relative price, how about looking at the other RBs that are close in ADP?

41. Mathews

42. Gerhart

46. Gore

52. Jennings

54. Richardson

55. Sankey

56. Vereen

58. C. Johnson

59. Tate

60. Rice

Are you going to tell us, with a straight face, that you would rather take a chance on Mathews, Gerhart and Gore in the 4th, and that you would take Jennings, Sankey, Vereen, C. Johnson, Tate, and Rice ahead of Richardson?

I can see taking some of those guys ahead of him, but all of them?

Who are all the guys you would take ahead of Richardson? Where do you rank him? At what point do you think the value is there that he's worth the risk? What do you project his stats will be for the season?

How about making an actual statement about where you see his value instead of merely criticizing everone else? Sheesh.

nothing bs about Lion's post. he responded to Reegus saying folks that invested a late round pick in Bradshaw will be disappointed, which they won't. if by some miracle Trent turns it around, you drop Bradshaw (who cost you nothing) and move on.

however if you draft trent in the 5th, and he continues playing like Trent Richardson, you cost yourself a 5th round pick

pretty simple

and the other rb's around the same adp as Trent really don't have anything to do with Lion's point

"Richardson in the mid-5th as your RB2 is the potentially massive disappointment, just on relative price if nothing else."

Every RB2 you take around Richardson in the 4th/5th round is potentially a massive disappointment. Ergo, it does have something to do with Lion's point. Pretty simple.

Mathews = injury history, fumbling problems, crowded backfield

Gerhart = first chance at being a lead back, bad team, unknown how he will perform

Gore = old, Hyde could take over

Jennings = bad offense, crowded backfield, and had a 2.80 YPC in 2012

Sankey = unknown

Vereen = injury history, crowded backfield

C. Johnson = is he even the RB1 in NY? Ivory vultures goal line TDs?

Tate = injury history, crowded backfield, bad offense

Rice = suspension, crowded backfield, historically bad team rushing last season

Any RB2 you take around Richardson is potentially a massive disappointment. You take him in the 5th because of the known the risk; it's not a massive disappointment taking him there because the risk is already known.

A "massive disappointment" is taking him in the 1st or 2nd last year and having him put up the numbers that he did.

I won't take Larry's tactics, even though I agree with him on TRich, but your review of the above RBs is really bad. Here, if you want to be that sloppy, is my list of quick hitters:

Mathews = injury history, fumbling problems, crowded backfield OR = the guy who had more points in 9 games than TRich had in 15 of his 16 games, including all 7 of his last 7 (i.e. ended the season on a roll, not replaced by Brown in the playoffs)

Gerhart = first chance at being a lead back, bad team, unknown how he will perform OR = has a much higher ceiling as the Jags starting RB and a guy with a career ypc that is 1.4 ypc better. He is only 250 yards behind TRich in about 180 less carries. He could fall over on every carry this year and potentially have the same career ypc as TRich

Gore = old, Hyde could take over OR = has been top 18 or better the past 3 years

Jennings = bad offense, crowded backfield, and had a 2.80 YPC in 2012 OR = no crowded backfield and in last pre-season game had a rush for over 40 yards more than any touch TRich has had in his 2 year career, i.e. same opportunity and more explosive, also will be a PPR gem getting dump offs from the goofy looking dude

Sankey = unknown OR = unknown, but 1st RB drafted to a team that needs a starter and we haven't seem him look awful yet, has real potential

Vereen = injury history, crowded backfield OR = played 8 games last season to TRich's 16, yet only had 11 less points. In only those 8 games, Vereen out did all 16 of Trich's games in 3 games, out did 15 of those games in 2 more and outdid 14 of them in 1 more. So in 6 of his 8 games, Vereen almost outplayed TRich's entire season

C. Johnson = is he even the RB1 in NY? Ivory vultures goal line TDs? OR = finished 9th, 13th and 9th in my PPR league

Tate = injury history, crowded backfield, bad offense OR = outscored TRich last year while not starting until week 7 when Foster was done

Rice = suspension, crowded backfield, historically bad team rushing last season OR = while terrible last year when hurt, he has a much higher ceiling/talent than TRich has. He has been top 10 before based on talent and not just volume

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Its so easy to identify the butt hurt people who were burned last year by Richardson. I'm going to with hold judgement until a real game has been played. I drafted him as my rb3 or 4 depending on how you rank s Jackson in a 12 team standard draft

I've personally still got Curtis Enis stashed in every league. Clearly, he was never used correctly and the blame lies with the coaches and his line. Enis was drafted in the top-5 overall!!!?!??!!! There's just no way everyone was that wrong on him.

 

[shader]

A 67-page discussion about a below-average RB fascinates me.

Many people thought he was as "can't miss" as Adrian Peterson coming out. Watching him turn into an absolute scrub is a tough pill to swallow for many.

Denial can last awhile.

 

[cstu]

Its so easy to identify the butt hurt people who were burned last year by Richardson. I'm going to with hold judgement until a real game has been played. I drafted him as my rb3 or 4 depending on how you rank s Jackson in a 12 team standard draft

I think it's far easier to tell who owns Richardson in this thread than it is anyone who was "burned" by him. But I HATE how so many conversations here devolve into subjective BS based on FF ownership, perceived or real. I'd like to think that most of us are capable of objectively offering our observations and opinions on players regardless of whether or not he's on our rosters.

FWIW I have never owned Richardson. I thought he was overrated coming out of Bama and the price to acquire has always been well above my liking. As I posted the other week I'm somewhat intrigued by him this year b/c I do think he offers some upside if you can get him at a discount from his consensus ADP and price.

But at the end of the day, I just don't think he's a good NFL RB. That is based solely on my observations and has nothing to do with owning him or not owning him or being burned by previously having him on my roster.

Let me tell you where I've stood on Richardson:

- Thought was a stud coming out of Alabama and a better talent than Ingram, who wasn't bad his rookie year

- Thought he ran ok his rookie year and was a very good receiver. Gave him the benefit of the doubt on his running because he was a rookie playing for the Browns and hurt his ribs.

- Thought he was terrible the first two games with the Browns but again let him have the 'Browns' excuse. I thought it was cheap that the Colts got him for a 1st on cheap contract with no guaranteed money.

- He never got better with the Colts and I don't buy the 'learning the offense' excuse for RB's.

- He does not look any better this preseason.

 

[Jrodicus]

At least part of the difference here is dynasty vs. redraft perspectives.

Redraft requires much more of a "what have you done for me lately" mentality, while dynasty puts a higher value on age and long-term potential.

 

[MoveToSkypager]

Everyone grabbing Bradshaw are going to be disappointed this year.

Bradshaw is going as RB55 at pick 15.11 (179th overall) -- no one is expecting much of anything. He's a late round flyer for people who want to fade Richardson. If he does literally anything, it's a positive return on a pick that late.

Richardson in the mid-5th as your RB2 is the potentially massive disappointment, just on relative price if nothing else.

If you want to talk relative price, how about looking at the other RBs that are close in ADP?

41. Mathews

42. Gerhart

46. Gore

52. Jennings

54. Richardson

55. Sankey

56. Vereen

58. C. Johnson

59. Tate

60. Rice

Are you going to tell us, with a straight face, that you would rather take a chance on Mathews, Gerhart and Gore in the 4th, and that you would take Jennings, Sankey, Vereen, C. Johnson, Tate, and Rice ahead of Richardson?

I can see taking some of those guys ahead of him, but all of them?

Who are all the guys you would take ahead of Richardson? Where do you rank him? At what point do you think the value is there that he's worth the risk? What do you project his stats will be for the season?

How about making an actual statement about where you see his value instead of merely criticizing everone else? Sheesh.

nothing bs about Lion's post. he responded to Reegus saying folks that invested a late round pick in Bradshaw will be disappointed, which they won't. if by some miracle Trent turns it around, you drop Bradshaw (who cost you nothing) and move on.

however if you draft trent in the 5th, and he continues playing like Trent Richardson, you cost yourself a 5th round pick

pretty simple

and the other rb's around the same adp as Trent really don't have anything to do with Lion's point

"Richardson in the mid-5th as your RB2 is the potentially massive disappointment, just on relative price if nothing else."

Every RB2 you take around Richardson in the 4th/5th round is potentially a massive disappointment. Ergo, it does have something to do with Lion's point. Pretty simple.

Mathews = injury history, fumbling problems, crowded backfield

Gerhart = first chance at being a lead back, bad team, unknown how he will perform

Gore = old, Hyde could take over

Jennings = bad offense, crowded backfield, and had a 2.80 YPC in 2012

Sankey = unknown

Vereen = injury history, crowded backfield

C. Johnson = is he even the RB1 in NY? Ivory vultures goal line TDs?

Tate = injury history, crowded backfield, bad offense

Rice = suspension, crowded backfield, historically bad team rushing last season

Any RB2 you take around Richardson is potentially a massive disappointment. You take him in the 5th because of the known the risk; it's not a massive disappointment taking him there because the risk is already known.

A "massive disappointment" is taking him in the 1st or 2nd last year and having him put up the numbers that he did.

I won't take Larry's tactics, even though I agree with him on TRich, but your review of the above RBs is really bad. Here, if you want to be that sloppy, is my list of quick hitters:

Mathews = injury history, fumbling problems, crowded backfield OR = the guy who had more points in 9 games than TRich had in 15 of his 16 games, including all 7 of his last 7 (i.e. ended the season on a roll, not replaced by Brown in the playoffs)

Gerhart = first chance at being a lead back, bad team, unknown how he will perform OR = has a much higher ceiling as the Jags starting RB and a guy with a career ypc that is 1.4 ypc better. He is only 250 yards behind TRich in about 180 less carries. He could fall over on every carry this year and potentially have the same career ypc as TRich

Gore = old, Hyde could take over OR = has been top 18 or better the past 3 years

Jennings = bad offense, crowded backfield, and had a 2.80 YPC in 2012 OR = no crowded backfield and in last pre-season game had a rush for over 40 yards more than any touch TRich has had in his 2 year career, i.e. same opportunity and more explosive, also will be a PPR gem getting dump offs from the goofy looking dude

Sankey = unknown OR = unknown, but 1st RB drafted to a team that needs a starter and we haven't seem him look awful yet, has real potential

Vereen = injury history, crowded backfield OR = played 8 games last season to TRich's 16, yet only had 11 less points. In only those 8 games, Vereen out did all 16 of Trich's games in 3 games, out did 15 of those games in 2 more and outdid 14 of them in 1 more. So in 6 of his 8 games, Vereen almost outplayed TRich's entire season

C. Johnson = is he even the RB1 in NY? Ivory vultures goal line TDs? OR = finished 9th, 13th and 9th in my PPR league

Tate = injury history, crowded backfield, bad offense OR = outscored TRich last year while not starting until week 7 when Foster was done

Rice = suspension, crowded backfield, historically bad team rushing last season OR = while terrible last year when hurt, he has a much higher ceiling/talent than TRich has. He has been top 10 before based on talent and not just volume

Maybe Richardson should be the #1 RB?

McCoy - concussion history, offense overachieved

Charles - injuries, OL lost starting LT

Peterson - old, recent torn ACL

Forte - Loosing Marquess Wilson will keep the offense from clicking

Lacy - looked chubby in a camp pic last year

Bell - apostrophes in first names are dumb

Bernard - NOT ACTUALLY ITALIAN

Murray - Look, this guy is boring, plus I hate Texas

Ball - statistically poor history of RBs without an appendix

Lynch - he's always in trouble, except he's never in trouble

Martin - that great Oakland game is practically a detriment now

 

[Coeur de Lion]

At least part of the difference here is dynasty vs. redraft perspectives.

Redraft requires much more of a "what have you done for me lately" mentality, while dynasty puts a higher value on age and long-term potential.

A young turd is still a turd, even in dynasty. Richardson is likely more valuable in redraft, actually, despite his age. There's at least some chance that he can compile his way to FF relevance this year with Ballard already hurt and Bradshaw's injury history. In dynasty, there's very little chance that Indy doesn't bring in significant competition in the next few years if / when Richardson sucks again this year. Plus, he's cheaper in redraft. Most of his dynasty owners seem to be willing to go down with the ship.

 

[stbugs]

I keep checking this thread for some relevant insight and/or information to no avail.

I'd say he sux is not only relevant, insightful, and informative, but also concise.

would it be better if I puked a half dozen more paragraphs on the page?

It was concise on page 30. Now it's nauseating.

C'mon, it's just getting fun again. In the off-season all we had were videos and articles trying to explain how TRich was actually good last year, now we are back to real live action. While I think he is bad and won't be on any of my teams, somewhere deep down in the recesses of a tiny part of my brain that enjoys punishment, it would actually be fun to see him do well. This thread could blow past a 100 pages with one 100 yard game.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

At least part of the difference here is dynasty vs. redraft perspectives.

Redraft requires much more of a "what have you done for me lately" mentality, while dynasty puts a higher value on age and long-term potential.

so, he sucked last year, will suck this year, but you expect him to be great next year.

good luck with that

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Maybe Richardson should be the #1 RB?

McCoy - concussion history, offense overachieved

Charles - injuries, OL lost starting LT

Peterson - old, recent torn ACL

Forte - Loosing Marquess Wilson will keep the offense from clicking

Lacy - looked chubby in a camp pic last year

Bell - apostrophes in first names are dumb

Bernard - NOT ACTUALLY ITALIAN

Murray - Look, this guy is boring, plus I hate Texas

Ball - statistically poor history of RBs without an appendix

Lynch - he's always in trouble, except he's never in trouble

Martin - that great Oakland game is practically a detriment now

 

[Jrodicus]

At least part of the difference here is dynasty vs. redraft perspectives.

Redraft requires much more of a "what have you done for me lately" mentality, while dynasty puts a higher value on age and long-term potential.

A young turd is still a turd, even in dynasty. Richardson is likely more valuable in redraft, actually, despite his age. There's at least some chance that he can compile his way to FF relevance this year with Ballard already hurt and Bradshaw's injury history. In dynasty, there's very little chance that Indy doesn't bring in significant competition in the next few years if / when Richardson sucks again this year. Plus, he's cheaper in redraft. Most of his dynasty owners seem to be willing to go down with the ship.

Now there is SOME chance? In April you thought he would likely be an RB2. Now that Ballard is hurt there is only "some chance" that he can be relevant? Why the downgrade?

Coeur de Lion, on 16 Apr 2014 - 09:18 AM, said:

Dr. Octopus, on 16 Apr 2014 - 09:00 AM, said:He'll be one of the more interesting players to assess heading into 2014 - he could either be a difference maker or see himself on waiver wires by midseason (in redraft leagues at least) - there's likely not much middle ground.

I actually see the "middle ground" as his most likely 2014 outcome. I'm reasonably sure he's not going to suddenly transform into a dynamic play maker racking up a ton of yardage. But the Colts made a sizable investment in him, so I'm also reasonably sure that he's going to get some volume as both a runner and receiver, and probably at the goal line. With some improvements at WR and on the line, he can be a compiler type meh RB2 IMO.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Bernard - NOT ACTUALLY ITALIAN

Wait, what? Next thing you'll be telling me is that Alfonso Soriano isn't Italian either.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

At least part of the difference here is dynasty vs. redraft perspectives.

Redraft requires much more of a "what have you done for me lately" mentality, while dynasty puts a higher value on age and long-term potential.

A young turd is still a turd, even in dynasty. Richardson is likely more valuable in redraft, actually, despite his age. There's at least some chance that he can compile his way to FF relevance this year with Ballard already hurt and Bradshaw's injury history. In dynasty, there's very little chance that Indy doesn't bring in significant competition in the next few years if / when Richardson sucks again this year. Plus, he's cheaper in redraft. Most of his dynasty owners seem to be willing to go down with the ship.

Now there is SOME chance? In April you thought he would likely be an RB2. Now that Ballard is hurt there is only "some chance" that he can be relevant? Why the downgrade?

Coeur de Lion, on 16 Apr 2014 - 09:18 AM, said:

Dr. Octopus, on 16 Apr 2014 - 09:00 AM, said:

He'll be one of the more interesting players to assess heading into 2014 - he could either be a difference maker or see himself on waiver wires by midseason (in redraft leagues at least) - there's likely not much middle ground.

I actually see the "middle ground" as his most likely 2014 outcome. I'm reasonably sure he's not going to suddenly transform into a dynamic play maker racking up a ton of yardage. But the Colts made a sizable investment in him, so I'm also reasonably sure that he's going to get some volume as both a runner and receiver, and probably at the goal line. With some improvements at WR and on the line, he can be a compiler type meh RB2 IMO.

No change, really. His 2014 range IMO is from crappy "meh" RB2 at the high end to completely irrelevant garbage at the low end -- "can be" and "some chance" are pretty equivalant to me; I use them pretty interchangably. "Should be" or "is likely to be" would be stronger endorsements. The o-line doesn't seem to be any better, and that's likely bad news for a guy that is unable to get yardage that's not blocked for him. I'm not buying in redraft -- I'm not a fan of paying for a guy at his upside. But I'm even less of a fan in dynasty, as each time the Colts randomly add a RB moving forward it's a major threat to Richardson's volume.

I'd say my position on Trent Richardson has been pretty consistent throughout his entire career -- I've never once seen the "wow!" that obviously so many others did, so I've been calling him over-rated since waaaaay before it was fashionable to do so -- even before his rookie year I was calling for people to hit the brakes on the hype train.

 

[georg013]

Yawn

 

[JFS171]

Im out... sorry guys. I still believe the book isn't closed on Trent, but I finally found a deal I liked to dump him without getting nothing for him. Just had to mitigate the risk with the short window my team is in (Peyton at QB).

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Im out... sorry guys. I still believe the book isn't closed on Trent, but I finally found a deal I liked to dump him without getting nothing for him. Just had to mitigate the risk with the short window my team is in (Peyton at QB).

Well, they say admitting you have a problem is the first of the 12 steps

 

[donkshow]

I'm drafting Bradshaw anywhere I can.

 

[Jrodicus]

Richardson’s first run of the preseason was for 8 yards, giving the indication that good things were to come with him. But he gained only 26 yards since then. The New York Giants, according to Pagano, loaded up the box on more than 20 of the first 30 plays of their preseason game last weekend. Richardson’s two longest runs -- 8 yards each -- came with Luck in the shotgun. Richardson's running with better instincts. It's just not showing up in the results, which is the determining factor.

“I think any time for any back, not only Trent, I think any time you spread people out and you’re in one-back situations, you’re in the gun,” Pagano said. “Everything’s dictated on what the defense presents. If they give you a light box, it doesn’t matter who’s in there, you’re going to have an opportunity to gain some yards. … It kind of depends on how the defense decides to defend you. If they go light box and they spread things out, I think for any runner he’s going to have an opportunity to gain more yards. First and second down, you can do the same thing. If they want to drop a safety down like this team likes to do, you’re still going to be, get a hat on a hat, you’re still going to have to get things blocked up and make a guy miss probably on his own.”

http://espn.go.com/blog/indianapolis-colts/post/_/id/7083/trent-richardson-has-gotten-off-to-slow-start-rushing

 

[MoveToSkypager]

Trent Richardson off to slow start

http://espn.go.com/blog/indianapolis-colts/post/_/id/7083/trent-richardson-has-gotten-off-to-slow-start-rushing

INDIANAPOLIS -- Look at Indianapolis Colts running back Trent Richardson's preseason rushing statistics and you probably want to climb to the top of the nearest mountain and scream, “Here we go again!” at the top of your lungs.

Richardson has rushed for 34 yards on 14 attempts in two preseason games. That’s 2.4 yards a carry, which is even less than the 2.9 yards he averaged last season when he lost his starting job after being acquired from the Cleveland Browns.

“...there’s some tough sledding right now...” Pagano said.

The pass Richardson and the Colts got last year because the running back was acquired during the season is gone.

 

[Clifford]

I keep checking this thread for some relevant insight and/or information to no avail.

That's on you bro. Only reason to come here is minor chuckles from Larry's excellent trolling.

 

[JFS171]

Colts acquired RB David Fluellen from the Eagles in exchange for K Cody Parkey.

The Eagles were planning to cut Fluellen. He was a priority UDFA signing out of Toledo after rushing for 3,336 yards and 28 scores in his college career. Fluellen fell to the bottom of the depth chart after spending too much time on the trainer's table with a calf injury. He'll compete for a backup job in Indianapolis.

Now the Richardson haters have another potential dart (Tipton and Herron as well) given we all know Bradshaw is going to break.

 

[Art_VanDalay]

No offense but hopefully we can steer this thread back to some meaningful debate on TRich? In that vein, I would put forth that as bad as TRich has looked, and he has looked every bit as bad as advertised after his last pre-season outing where he stopped moving his legs in the hole, turned his shoulders to the LOS completely and danced too much (again), his case can actually be a great case study this year in Volume/Opportunity vs. Talent.

If we all assume that TRich is what he has shown for two years now, which is much less talented than EVERYONE thought when coming out of 'Bama, and factor in the high amount of carries (~200-250 safe number?) expected plus at least 35 catches (like 2 a game so probably more since he hasn't seem to show a deficiency in the passing game), he can amass a decent total season yardage (~1,100 rush/rec combined) and has to be the GL back for most if not all of Indy's chances down there, of which there should be plenty. Given all this, even if we can all agree that his talent leaves us scratching our heads, he could still wind up as a viable RB#2/Flex option for most weeks and probably still a great fit for a team going Zero RB in their draft this year in a deep 12+ team league. Thoughts on that?

 

[Leroy Hoard]

No offense but hopefully we can steer this thread back to some meaningful debate on TRich? In that vein, I would put forth that as bad as TRich has looked, and he has looked every bit as bad as advertised after his last pre-season outing where he stopped moving his legs in the hole, turned his shoulders to the LOS completely and danced too much (again), his case can actually be a great case study this year in Volume/Opportunity vs. Talent.

If we all assume that TRich is what he has shown for two years now, which is much less talented than EVERYONE thought when coming out of 'Bama, and factor in the high amount of carries (~200-250 safe number?) expected plus at least 35 catches (like 2 a game so probably more since he hasn't seem to show a deficiency in the passing game), he can amass a decent total season yardage (~1,100 rush/rec combined) and has to be the GL back for most if not all of Indy's chances down there, of which there should be plenty. Given all this, even if we can all agree that his talent leaves us scratching our heads, he could still wind up as a viable RB#2/Flex option for most weeks and probably still a great fit for a team going Zero RB in their draft this year in a deep 12+ team league. Thoughts on that?

He should be a cheap option for those loading up elsewhere.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

No offense but hopefully we can steer this thread back to some meaningful debate on TRich? In that vein, I would put forth that as bad as TRich has looked, and he has looked every bit as bad as advertised after his last pre-season outing where he stopped moving his legs in the hole, turned his shoulders to the LOS completely and danced too much (again), his case can actually be a great case study this year in Volume/Opportunity vs. Talent.

If we all assume that TRich is what he has shown for two years now, which is much less talented than EVERYONE thought when coming out of 'Bama, and factor in the high amount of carries (~200-250 safe number?) expected BY ME plus at least 35 catches (like 2 a game so probably more since he hasn't seem to show a deficiency in the passing game), he can amass a decent total season yardage (~1,100 rush/rec combined) and has to be the GL back for most if not all of Indy's chances down there, of which there should be plenty. Given all this, even if we can all agree that his talent leaves us scratching our heads, he could still wind up as a viable RB#2/Flex option for most weeks and probably still a great fit for a team going Zero RB in their draft this year in a deep 12+ team league. Thoughts on that?

those are my thoughts

 

[ROYALWITCHEESE]

No offense but hopefully we can steer this thread back to some meaningful debate on TRich? In that vein, I would put forth that as bad as TRich has looked, and he has looked every bit as bad as advertised after his last pre-season outing where he stopped moving his legs in the hole, turned his shoulders to the LOS completely and danced too much (again), his case can actually be a great case study this year in Volume/Opportunity vs. Talent.

If we all assume that TRich is what he has shown for two years now, which is much less talented than EVERYONE thought when coming out of 'Bama, and factor in the high amount of carries (~200-250 safe number?) expected plus at least 35 catches (like 2 a game so probably more since he hasn't seem to show a deficiency in the passing game), he can amass a decent total season yardage (~1,100 rush/rec combined) and has to be the GL back for most if not all of Indy's chances down there, of which there should be plenty. Given all this, even if we can all agree that his talent leaves us scratching our heads, he could still wind up as a viable RB#2/Flex option for most weeks and probably still a great fit for a team going Zero RB in their draft this year in a deep 12+ team league. Thoughts on that?

The way he dances, it would not shock me to see Herron at the goal line...

 

[Clifford]

So I actually watched every carry of the last game and people are right, he looked better than his stats. I only saw one time when I thought he broke the wrong way, and there was a safety shooting through the gap. Still, he should have put his foot down and barreled through, but other than that I didn't see tons of opportunity missed. He didn't look great, didn't look terrible.

 

[cstu]

Colts acquired RB David Fluellen from the Eagles in exchange for K Cody Parkey.

The Eagles were planning to cut Fluellen. He was a priority UDFA signing out of Toledo after rushing for 3,336 yards and 28 scores in his college career. Fluellen fell to the bottom of the depth chart after spending too much time on the trainer's table with a calf injury. He'll compete for a backup job in Indianapolis.

Now the Richardson haters have another potential dart (Tipton and Herron as well) given we all know Bradshaw is going to break.

wheels579 says: Aug 20, 2014 12:36 PM

The guy from People’s Court?

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

 

[Clifford]

What's funny is that there is a good chance of both sides here being completely wrong. He probably won't be terrible, won't be great. Probably a guy that will get about 60-80 yards a game on the ground, and have a good shot at a TD once a week.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

What's funny is that there is a good chance of both sides here being completely wrong. He probably won't be terrible, won't be great. Probably a guy that will get about 60-80 yards a game on the ground, and have a good shot at a TD once a week.

HE GOT ####### 3 TD IN 16 GAMES LAST YEAR !!!!!!

 

[Sweetness_34]

So I actually watched every carry of the last game and people are right, he looked better than his stats. I only saw one time when I thought he broke the wrong way, and there was a safety shooting through the gap. Still, he should have put his foot down and barreled through, but other than that I didn't see tons of opportunity missed. He didn't look great, didn't look terrible.

What were you drinking while watching? I want some of that because clearly it works.

 

[GreenNGold]

No offense but hopefully we can steer this thread back to some meaningful debate on TRich? ....

....

Sorry that you aren't hearing what you want to hear, but when everyone who is knowledgeable is coming to the same conclusion you might want to open yourself up to an opposing view a little more as opposed to refusing to believe a legitimate debate has taken place. I don't really think there is anything left to debate, if you have something new, that could change the consensus, please bring it forward.

 

[jmo87usc]

No offense but hopefully we can steer this thread back to some meaningful debate on TRich? ....

....

Sorry that you aren't hearing what you want to hear, but when everyone who is knowledgeable is coming to the same conclusion you might want to open yourself up to an opposing view a little more as opposed to refusing to believe a legitimate debate has taken place. I don't really think there is anything left to debate, if you have something new, that could change the consensus, please bring it forward.

There's a consensus in here?

 

[GreenNGold]

Before everyone starts listening to Clifford, let's hear some of his previous thoughts about TRich, he has a very vested interest in his false opinion. I quoted some of my posts too, sorry for my arrogance in my past posts, and sorry for bringing them up now. The 2nd/3rd round references were all related to redraft leagues in 2012,and the bold is Clifford's emphasis, not mine.

I'm sorry but if you can't tell the difference between Trent Richardson and mark Ingram you deserve to get burned. Late 2nd early third seems about right for TR. after the top three there are nothing but question marks. I'd rather have Fred Jackson this year, but I bet Richardson is a top 10 rb after the first four weeks.

And I was wrong. I really thought he would establish himself as the lead back and the Saints would change their ways. I was wrong. But nowhere did I say his talent level and TRich's were the same or even similar. IN fact, in the middle of Ingram's Heisman run I would anger other Bama fans saying he wasn't even the best back on his team. And he wasn't. I always looked at Ingram as more of a big back with some outside speed but not much wiggle or quicks. I did think he would do well, and I was wrong. But I have never put his talent at TRich's level. I still believe if Ingram can overcome injuries he can be an above-average starting back in this league. I do not believe he is special in the way TRich is. ETA in response to above comments, even counting DMC, who I LOVED coming out of college, I have never seen a back possess Richardson's combination of speed, power, vision, toughness, strength, and agility. He literally has it all. Even I in my blind love for DMC recognized he was short on leg drive and really depended on his speed to be productive.

My only concern about Richardson is how behind he will be because of missing TC, and the knee. If those two things don't hold him back, he's worth every penny of a 2nd round pick.

If you want someone with Adrian Peterson like talent in the 2nd round.... why not just draft Adrian Peterson himself in the 2nd round? He is healthier and has already proven himself. Your concerns about Richardson are very valid, yet you try to discount them like they are nothing and pray for a miracle instead. Take a stud in the 2nd round not a bust. LHUCKS said it best: "The first three rounds should be about avoiding busts, not finding them."

I hope no one bought into the hype and started this scrub this week.

If he is your RB2 you are in for a LONG season.

Has helped me to a perfect record as my RB2/3. I snagged another rookie in Washington that is doing pretty well. Those worthless rooks! I have a feeling we won't hear much more from this dingaling.

Thanks for being the only human in the history of earth to ever resort to insulting me by PM. That really shows what type of person you are, I'm glad I don't know you in real life or my real life would suck. I see that your public comments have a different tone to them though. I have checked for this thread several times but had not seen in on the first page, and I normally don't browse farther than that. It obviously has not been that hot of a topic though.

TRich has looked really good so far, and I'm the first to admit that. I never avoid threads like these or hide, I just haven't been around much.

It looks like I am wrong on TRich, but my main point still stands: Over-hyped rookie RB's normally do not pan out. This time my theory backfired, but it is correct more often than it is wrong.

All that being said, while he has looked good, he has also had what would have been a couple really mediocre weeks salvaged by a TD. And while every TD still counts, You can't expect that every week either. If anything, I'd say his trade value is about as high as it can get right now. Dynasty an obvious keeper and #1 pick before the year started, but I have never once in my life talked about dynasty. It's all about redraft baby! I'm very interested to see if he can keep this up for rest of the year.

I won't bother telling you how incredibly wrong you are on this, or bother trying to teach you how to differentiate actual real players or evaluate talent. Obviously you simply look at certain measurables and make blanket generalizations about what a player is going to do based on other player with those same measurables (like your argument because both backs came from the same school, and were highly touted rookies, they would do the exact same things despite being different players with different skill sets on different teams with different offensive philosophies). Obviously you haven't learned that this is the reason you were so wrong because you persist in it, saying trade now because, well, it's really rare for rookies to do this well, and not looking at anything that is going on with the player or the team.

I won't even fault you for how much you touted having to play Cincinatti (19th against the rush), Baltimore (20th), and Pittsburgh (11th) as really tough defenses that would totally shut him down. It's nearly impossible to predict what defenses will be good season to season.

What I fault you for was your unbelievable arrogance and your outright disrespect to anyone who disagreed with your assessment of Richardson, which was based on apparently zero knowledge of the player himself and one lousy game week 1 with no training camp and a shortened week of practice, with a rookie QB. You really need to take a step back and acknowledge just how arrogant and pissy you were and think about if that's how you want to conduct yourself. I have a feeling that the only reason you are being even civil to people right now is because you were completely, 100% dead wrong. Had Richardson performed average or poorly, you'd be rubbing everyone's nose in it and saying how stupid they were not to listen to your genius advice.

No one know what's going to happen, and I don't fault you for being wrong about a player. I fault you for being a complete ######## to everyone while being wrong about a player.

Learning to trust your own eyes and your own judgement is the first step to winning. Took me a while to learn that.

 

[GreenNGold]

No offense but hopefully we can steer this thread back to some meaningful debate on TRich? ....

....

Sorry that you aren't hearing what you want to hear, but when everyone who is knowledgeable is coming to the same conclusion you might want to open yourself up to an opposing view a little more as opposed to refusing to believe a legitimate debate has taken place. I don't really think there is anything left to debate, if you have something new, that could change the consensus, please bring it forward.

There's a consensus in here?

Pretty much.

 

[SacramentoBob]

There is consensus among people who have the same opinion of T-Rich.

 

[msommer]

There is consensus among people who have the same opinion of T-Rich.

actually two of them

 

[tone1oc]

There is consensus among people who don't own T-Rich.

FTFY

 

[Zdravko]

No offense but hopefully we can steer this thread back to some meaningful debate on TRich? In that vein, I would put forth that as bad as TRich has looked, and he has looked every bit as bad as advertised after his last pre-season outing where he stopped moving his legs in the hole, turned his shoulders to the LOS completely and danced too much (again), his case can actually be a great case study this year in Volume/Opportunity vs. Talent.

If we all assume that TRich is what he has shown for two years now, which is much less talented than EVERYONE thought when coming out of 'Bama, and factor in the high amount of carries (~200-250 safe number?) expected plus at least 35 catches (like 2 a game so probably more since he hasn't seem to show a deficiency in the passing game), he can amass a decent total season yardage (~1,100 rush/rec combined) and has to be the GL back for most if not all of Indy's chances down there, of which there should be plenty. Given all this, even if we can all agree that his talent leaves us scratching our heads, he could still wind up as a viable RB#2/Flex option for most weeks and probably still a great fit for a team going Zero RB in their draft this year in a deep 12+ team league. Thoughts on that?

Yes, can the sane posters please ignore the clowns and trolls on both sides... I'd love to finally have a normal conversation after 68 pages of "He sucks", "No, he is great.", "You are an idiot." I quite enjoyed the posting with quotes back from 2012.

So I acquired TR on the cheap in two leagues this off-season and have been re-watching closely his carries to form an unbiased view + looking at old tape. He definitely dances a shocking amount. It's almost unreal, especially when you consider the fact that indecisiveness at the LOS is usually one of the easier things for coaches to fix with a big guy. He did not dance at all in college, but the holes were much bigger, so perhaps he just doesn't think he sees a gap wide enough in the NFL. Does anyone have an UNBIASED view on his game tape in Cleveland? I might go download some of his rookie season over the weekend and post again.

The Indy OL does seem really poor in the pre-season, arguably the worst I've seen this August. Rotoworld claims both of his better runs came out of shotgun and I cannot recall a single design carry, in which he actually had somewhere to go. That said, he does stop moving his legs way too quickly for my taste, when he hits more than one tackler. I am curious whether that would continue if Indy went all-pass and he faced 6-7 man fronts.

In terms of projections, I think 250 carries at 3.8 - 4.0 ypc is probably a fair guess, but 30 receptions seems conservative. By the end of a highly underperforming last season, he still averaged 3.5 - 4 catches per game. Given Indy's overall propensity to pass first, I'd guess 40 receptions at 7-8 ypc is close to the floor. The TDs are a wild card for me - if he keeps the GL duties, double digits are very possible.

So, put it all together, 1200-1300 all-purpose yards + 8-10 TDs + 40 catches => that's a decent PPR RB2 in my book.

 

[georg013]

No offense but hopefully we can steer this thread back to some meaningful debate on TRich? In that vein, I would put forth that as bad as TRich has looked, and he has looked every bit as bad as advertised after his last pre-season outing where he stopped moving his legs in the hole, turned his shoulders to the LOS completely and danced too much (again), his case can actually be a great case study this year in Volume/Opportunity vs. Talent.

If we all assume that TRich is what he has shown for two years now, which is much less talented than EVERYONE thought when coming out of 'Bama, and factor in the high amount of carries (~200-250 safe number?) expected plus at least 35 catches (like 2 a game so probably more since he hasn't seem to show a deficiency in the passing game), he can amass a decent total season yardage (~1,100 rush/rec combined) and has to be the GL back for most if not all of Indy's chances down there, of which there should be plenty. Given all this, even if we can all agree that his talent leaves us scratching our heads, he could still wind up as a viable RB#2/Flex option for most weeks and probably still a great fit for a team going Zero RB in their draft this year in a deep 12+ team league. Thoughts on that?

Yes, can the sane posters please ignore the clowns and trolls on both sides... I'd love to finally have a normal conversation after 68 pages of "He sucks", "No, he is great.", "You are an idiot." I quite enjoyed the posting with quotes back from 2012.

So I acquired TR on the cheap in two leagues this off-season and have been re-watching closely his carries to form an unbiased view + looking at old tape. He definitely dances a shocking amount. It's almost unreal, especially when you consider the fact that indecisiveness at the LOS is usually one of the easier things for coaches to fix with a big guy. He did not dance at all in college, but the holes were much bigger, so perhaps he just doesn't think he sees a gap wide enough in the NFL. Does anyone have an UNBIASED view on his game tape in Cleveland? I might go download some of his rookie season over the weekend and post again.

The Indy OL does seem really poor in the pre-season, arguably the worst I've seen this August. Rotoworld claims both of his better runs came out of shotgun and I cannot recall a single design carry, in which he actually had somewhere to go. That said, he does stop moving his legs way too quickly for my taste, when he hits more than one tackler. I am curious whether that would continue if Indy went all-pass and he faced 6-7 man fronts.

In terms of projections, I think 250 carries at 3.8 - 4.0 ypc is probably a fair guess, but 30 receptions seems conservative. By the end of a highly underperforming last season, he still averaged 3.5 - 4 catches per game. Given Indy's overall propensity to pass first, I'd guess 40 receptions at 7-8 ypc is close to the floor. The TDs are a wild card for me - if he keeps the GL duties, double digits are very possible.

So, put it all together, 1200-1300 all-purpose yards + 8-10 TDs + 40 catches => that's a decent PPR RB2 in my book.

All pass you say?

Coach Chuck Pagano seemed to hint that the Colts will lean toward an aggressive passing offense in hopes it will kick start their running game.
"I think having the capability to do the other thing is going to open things up in the run game for us," said Pagano. Trent Richardson has two eight-yard gains in the preseason, and 16 yards on his other 12 carries. Both eight-yarders came on shotgun runs -- a passing formation. Richardson has been unsuccessful without room to operate, and pass-oriented sets might give him more space. From a personnel standpoint, Indy's roster strength is its QB and pass-catching corps.

 

[Clifford]

Before everyone starts listening to Clifford, let's hear some of his previous thoughts about TRich, he has a very vested interest in his false opinion. I quoted some of my posts too, sorry for my arrogance in my past posts, and sorry for bringing them up now. The 2nd/3rd round references were all related to redraft leagues in 2012,and the bold is Clifford's emphasis, not mine.

I'm sorry but if you can't tell the difference between Trent Richardson and mark Ingram you deserve to get burned. Late 2nd early third seems about right for TR. after the top three there are nothing but question marks. I'd rather have Fred Jackson this year, but I bet Richardson is a top 10 rb after the first four weeks.

And I was wrong. I really thought he would establish himself as the lead back and the Saints would change their ways. I was wrong. But nowhere did I say his talent level and TRich's were the same or even similar. IN fact, in the middle of Ingram's Heisman run I would anger other Bama fans saying he wasn't even the best back on his team. And he wasn't. I always looked at Ingram as more of a big back with some outside speed but not much wiggle or quicks. I did think he would do well, and I was wrong. But I have never put his talent at TRich's level. I still believe if Ingram can overcome injuries he can be an above-average starting back in this league. I do not believe he is special in the way TRich is. ETA in response to above comments, even counting DMC, who I LOVED coming out of college, I have never seen a back possess Richardson's combination of speed, power, vision, toughness, strength, and agility. He literally has it all. Even I in my blind love for DMC recognized he was short on leg drive and really depended on his speed to be productive.

My only concern about Richardson is how behind he will be because of missing TC, and the knee. If those two things don't hold him back, he's worth every penny of a 2nd round pick.

If you want someone with Adrian Peterson like talent in the 2nd round.... why not just draft Adrian Peterson himself in the 2nd round? He is healthier and has already proven himself. Your concerns about Richardson are very valid, yet you try to discount them like they are nothing and pray for a miracle instead. Take a stud in the 2nd round not a bust. LHUCKS said it best: "The first three rounds should be about avoiding busts, not finding them."

I hope no one bought into the hype and started this scrub this week.

If he is your RB2 you are in for a LONG season.

Has helped me to a perfect record as my RB2/3. I snagged another rookie in Washington that is doing pretty well. Those worthless rooks! I have a feeling we won't hear much more from this dingaling.

Thanks for being the only human in the history of earth to ever resort to insulting me by PM. That really shows what type of person you are, I'm glad I don't know you in real life or my real life would suck. I see that your public comments have a different tone to them though. I have checked for this thread several times but had not seen in on the first page, and I normally don't browse farther than that. It obviously has not been that hot of a topic though.TRich has looked really good so far, and I'm the first to admit that. I never avoid threads like these or hide, I just haven't been around much.

It looks like I am wrong on TRich, but my main point still stands: Over-hyped rookie RB's normally do not pan out. This time my theory backfired, but it is correct more often than it is wrong.

All that being said, while he has looked good, he has also had what would have been a couple really mediocre weeks salvaged by a TD. And while every TD still counts, You can't expect that every week either. If anything, I'd say his trade value is about as high as it can get right now. Dynasty an obvious keeper and #1 pick before the year started, but I have never once in my life talked about dynasty. It's all about redraft baby! I'm very interested to see if he can keep this up for rest of the year.

I won't bother telling you how incredibly wrong you are on this, or bother trying to teach you how to differentiate actual real players or evaluate talent. Obviously you simply look at certain measurables and make blanket generalizations about what a player is going to do based on other player with those same measurables (like your argument because both backs came from the same school, and were highly touted rookies, they would do the exact same things despite being different players with different skill sets on different teams with different offensive philosophies). Obviously you haven't learned that this is the reason you were so wrong because you persist in it, saying trade now because, well, it's really rare for rookies to do this well, and not looking at anything that is going on with the player or the team.I won't even fault you for how much you touted having to play Cincinatti (19th against the rush), Baltimore (20th), and Pittsburgh (11th) as really tough defenses that would totally shut him down. It's nearly impossible to predict what defenses will be good season to season.

What I fault you for was your unbelievable arrogance and your outright disrespect to anyone who disagreed with your assessment of Richardson, which was based on apparently zero knowledge of the player himself and one lousy game week 1 with no training camp and a shortened week of practice, with a rookie QB. You really need to take a step back and acknowledge just how arrogant and pissy you were and think about if that's how you want to conduct yourself. I have a feeling that the only reason you are being even civil to people right now is because you were completely, 100% dead wrong. Had Richardson performed average or poorly, you'd be rubbing everyone's nose in it and saying how stupid they were not to listen to your genius advice.

No one know what's going to happen, and I don't fault you for being wrong about a player. I fault you for being a complete ######## to everyone while being wrong about a player.

Learning to trust your own eyes and your own judgement is the first step to winning. Took me a while to learn that.

I stand by my bolded statements.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

No offense but hopefully we can steer this thread back to some meaningful debate on TRich? In that vein, I would put forth that as bad as TRich has looked, and he has looked every bit as bad as advertised after his last pre-season outing where he stopped moving his legs in the hole, turned his shoulders to the LOS completely and danced too much (again), his case can actually be a great case study this year in Volume/Opportunity vs. Talent.

If we all assume that TRich is what he has shown for two years now, which is much less talented than EVERYONE thought when coming out of 'Bama, and factor in the high amount of carries (~200-250 safe number?) expected plus at least 35 catches (like 2 a game so probably more since he hasn't seem to show a deficiency in the passing game), he can amass a decent total season yardage (~1,100 rush/rec combined) and has to be the GL back for most if not all of Indy's chances down there, of which there should be plenty. Given all this, even if we can all agree that his talent leaves us scratching our heads, he could still wind up as a viable RB#2/Flex option for most weeks and probably still a great fit for a team going Zero RB in their draft this year in a deep 12+ team league. Thoughts on that?

I guess the issue with just assuming that he'll be a compiler due to volume, is that the volume isn't a guarantee. In theory what you say is true, but by season's end last season Trent was performing so poorly that Donald Brown was significantly eating into his snap counts and in the playoff's Trent was practically non-existent.

If Trent struggles early in the season once again, there's a good chance his "volume" dries up quickly as Ahmad Bradshaw or Dan Herron see their workloads increase.

So Richardson will need to show a marked improvement in order to see those 250 carries you project. I think it's possible that he will (his issues are correctable) but they're far from a given.

 

[DoubleG]

No offense but hopefully we can steer this thread back to some meaningful debate on TRich? In that vein, I would put forth that as bad as TRich has looked, and he has looked every bit as bad as advertised after his last pre-season outing where he stopped moving his legs in the hole, turned his shoulders to the LOS completely and danced too much (again), his case can actually be a great case study this year in Volume/Opportunity vs. Talent.

If we all assume that TRich is what he has shown for two years now, which is much less talented than EVERYONE thought when coming out of 'Bama, and factor in the high amount of carries (~200-250 safe number?) expected plus at least 35 catches (like 2 a game so probably more since he hasn't seem to show a deficiency in the passing game), he can amass a decent total season yardage (~1,100 rush/rec combined) and has to be the GL back for most if not all of Indy's chances down there, of which there should be plenty. Given all this, even if we can all agree that his talent leaves us scratching our heads, he could still wind up as a viable RB#2/Flex option for most weeks and probably still a great fit for a team going Zero RB in their draft this year in a deep 12+ team league. Thoughts on that?

I guess the issue with just assuming that he'll be a compiler due to volume, is that the volume isn't a guarantee. In theory what you say is true, but by season's end last season Trent was performing so poorly that Donald Brown was significantly eating into his snap counts and in the playoff's Trent was practically non-existent.

If Trent struggles early in the season once again, there's a good chance his "volume" dries up quickly as Ahmad Bradshaw or Dan Herron see their workloads increase.

So Richardson will need to show a marked improvement in order to see those 250 carries you project. I think it's possible that he will (his issues are correctable) but they're far from a given.

I pretty much agree with all of this. As a Trent dynasty owner, I am, of course holding - but largely because I have no choice.

 

[Jrodicus]

No offense but hopefully we can steer this thread back to some meaningful debate on TRich? In that vein, I would put forth that as bad as TRich has looked, and he has looked every bit as bad as advertised after his last pre-season outing where he stopped moving his legs in the hole, turned his shoulders to the LOS completely and danced too much (again), his case can actually be a great case study this year in Volume/Opportunity vs. Talent.

If we all assume that TRich is what he has shown for two years now, which is much less talented than EVERYONE thought when coming out of 'Bama, and factor in the high amount of carries (~200-250 safe number?) expected plus at least 35 catches (like 2 a game so probably more since he hasn't seem to show a deficiency in the passing game), he can amass a decent total season yardage (~1,100 rush/rec combined) and has to be the GL back for most if not all of Indy's chances down there, of which there should be plenty. Given all this, even if we can all agree that his talent leaves us scratching our heads, he could still wind up as a viable RB#2/Flex option for most weeks and probably still a great fit for a team going Zero RB in their draft this year in a deep 12+ team league. Thoughts on that?

I guess the issue with just assuming that he'll be a compiler due to volume, is that the volume isn't a guarantee. In theory what you say is true, but by season's end last season Trent was performing so poorly that Donald Brown was significantly eating into his snap counts and in the playoff's Trent was practically non-existent.

If Trent struggles early in the season once again, there's a good chance his "volume" dries up quickly as Ahmad Bradshaw or Dan Herron see their workloads increase.

So Richardson will need to show a marked improvement in order to see those 250 carries you project. I think it's possible that he will (his issues are correctable) but they're far from a given.

Agreed.

I don't remember seeing anyone here predict that he'll go 5.0 YPC with 325 touches this season.

The biggest point of contention regarding this season, imo, has been whether or not he will be good enough to hold onto the starting job all year. Cound me among those that think he will, and as such, should put up at least low/mid-RB2 numbers.

 

[Art_VanDalay]

No offense but hopefully we can steer this thread back to some meaningful debate on TRich? In that vein, I would put forth that as bad as TRich has looked, and he has looked every bit as bad as advertised after his last pre-season outing where he stopped moving his legs in the hole, turned his shoulders to the LOS completely and danced too much (again), his case can actually be a great case study this year in Volume/Opportunity vs. Talent.

If we all assume that TRich is what he has shown for two years now, which is much less talented than EVERYONE thought when coming out of 'Bama, and factor in the high amount of carries (~200-250 safe number?) expected plus at least 35 catches (like 2 a game so probably more since he hasn't seem to show a deficiency in the passing game), he can amass a decent total season yardage (~1,100 rush/rec combined) and has to be the GL back for most if not all of Indy's chances down there, of which there should be plenty. Given all this, even if we can all agree that his talent leaves us scratching our heads, he could still wind up as a viable RB#2/Flex option for most weeks and probably still a great fit for a team going Zero RB in their draft this year in a deep 12+ team league. Thoughts on that?

I guess the issue with just assuming that he'll be a compiler due to volume, is that the volume isn't a guarantee. In theory what you say is true, but by season's end last season Trent was performing so poorly that Donald Brown was significantly eating into his snap counts and in the playoff's Trent was practically non-existent.

If Trent struggles early in the season once again, there's a good chance his "volume" dries up quickly as Ahmad Bradshaw or Dan Herron see their workloads increase.

So Richardson will need to show a marked improvement in order to see those 250 carries you project. I think it's possible that he will (his issues are correctable) but they're far from a given.

Agreed.

I don't remember seeing anyone here predict that he'll go 5.0 YPC with 325 touches this season.

The biggest point of contention regarding this season, imo, has been whether or not he will be good enough to hold onto the starting job all year. Cound me among those that think he will, and as such, should put up at least low/mid-RB2 numbers.

This is really what it comes down to for anyone willing to take a chance on him this year. I give 65-35 odds against him playing so well that Bradshaw/Herron/Luellen become afterthoughts and just don't see it worth taking up 2 roster spots to 'cuff any of them to TRich. IF he starts out hot though (80-100 total yards?) per game the first few weeks, he may have a shot to become a real RB2 option. Schedule is in his favor which I think has to be considered...opens @Den, Phi, @Jax... and if it is true, from watching PS game #2, that Pep is going to spread it out to create running lanes out of the pistol/SG formation at times, this might make up for a truly horrific OL.

My prediction is that he will be serviceable to consider as a RB2 most of the season but not reliable enough to go to the well every week with him. He has more value in a PPR. His talent is limited and he cannot make the first defender miss - a prerequisite to high end NFL RBs where schemes are often drawn up with just that idea in mind. I do not think that TRich is just going to fade away from the NFL anytime soon (think Ronnie Brown) but Indy won't be his last stop for sure. He is at some point in his career going to surprise people IF he gets to the right team with a top 5 OL, strong QB/passing offense. In other words, he needs it all around him to be successful. This is why he looked good at Bama and why he was decent in Cleveland as their OL rarely had defenders waiting for him in the backfield and he had gaping holes to run through which, once he gets a head of steam going N to S, he is a load to bring down. The funniest thing to me is that, based on rookie profiles coming out, it would seem to me like Lacy is actually playing up to Richardson's scouting report while TRich is playing like people expected Lacy to play. I know its only 1 season for Lacy but that is a good OL in GB, with all the pieces in place to my earlier point.

 

[rct]

From Rotoworld:

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/7462/trent-richardson

Colts GM Ryan Grigson says Trent Richardson "needs to answer the bell" and be "accountable."

Richardson gained eight yards on his first preseason carry, and has 26 yards on his last 13. "Trent, he needs to answer the bell and do his job to the best of his ability," said Grigson. "Were all accountable here. ...Hes such a hard runner, we know how tough he is, but hes got to produce just like all these guys do on this final 53."

If this was an outward expression of disappointment from Grigson, it'd be a first from the Colts' organization, which has propped up T-Rich at every opportunity since trading for him last September. Richardson's ADP has finally begun to dip. He's going late in the fifth round of standard drafts. Aug 20 - 10:08 PM