Tony Romo, QB, Dallas Cowboys (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2012 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Tony Romo, QB, Dallas Cowboys

Player Page Link: Tony Romo Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[Blackjacks]

While everyone is drafting qb's in the first 2 rounds I will sit back and love getting Romo in the 5th. He is aa consistent of an option as anyone. I probably rank him #5 behind Rodgers, Brady, Stafford and Cam (didnt forget about Brees, see a bad year coming) and Stafford and Cam are close. Romo has STUDS to throw to and Garrett runs a pass happy offense.

Tremendous value.

4300 yards

34 td's

8 int's

100 yards rushing

1 td

 

[Bankerguy]

I see Romo having a larger possible swing in points produced compared to prervious years. He is going to make or break a lot of fantasy teams this year in my opinion. The talent and tools surrounding Romo is significant. Dez, Witten, Austin, Jones and Murray equals a likely top ten or even top five offense. This collection of talent is very tempting to fall in love with on paper. The key questions are: will this talent produce as well as it has historically going into this year in the midst of a lot of off season change? I believe the off season changes and chatter are going to negatively affect the offense. Allow me to get into the weeds here.

1. The defensive FA signings of Carr, Pool, Connor and by also moving up to get Claiborne, the team has significantly upgraded the defense. How does this affect Romo? Well, the defense provided lots of opportunities to the offense because opponets scored at will. The 4th quarter was epically poor. They could not make stops and get off the field with the weak link being the secondary. This helped inflate some of Romo's totals and the teams run/pass ratios. There were many shoot outs last year with lots of fantasy points being scored in Cowboys games.

2. Jason Garrett is moulding the team into more of his vision. I see Garrett moving away from passing so much and moving closer to the 90's Cowboys offense. The newer model is becasue of the emergence of Murray, who showed signs of being the back the Cowboys have needed for years. The key sign for me was the signing of a top FB in Vickers. This guy is smashmouth and blocked for some of the leagues best rushers. You cant't discount how he helped those run games. I believe the Garrett plan is to insulate Romo from having to carry the entire load with his arm. A vastly improved defense and more formidable run game will mean more wins. By no means does this totally kill Romo's stats, but I think it should give FF drafters some cause for additional thought/analysis.

3. Dallas has quietly done nothing to replace the departure of Laurent Robinson and the WR3 spot or Martellus Bennett at TE2. Ask yourself why? See point 2.

Overall for the 2012 year:

I see a much more conservative, smart and efficient offense that will rely on the run a whole lot more. Romo will still get his TD's as teams are going to have to respect and play the run unlike they have had to in the recent past. Murray will force some teams into more eight man fronts then we've seen. This will benefit Romo as it will open up space in the secondary for play action and vertical routes. Last year the Cowboys running backs only scored single digit TD totals. You can bet Garrett will ensure that will not repeat itself and the Vickers signing provides some credence of that mindset. I see Murray exploding into a good FF back and Romo takes a fairly decent slide in fantasy production. I will go so far as to say that Romo could be the demise of several FF teams that draft Romo for "potential" with all of his surrounding talent. It even will affect those who draft him for "value".

Being a huge Dallas fan I am fond of Romo the NFL quarterback, but he will not be on any of my 2012 rosters.

3900 yards

25 tds

11 ints

120 yards

2 tds

 

[Monsters of the Midway]

Very well thought out, thanks for posting. We need more of these posts and less with the name calling. Which isn't to say that I agree with all of it, but where would the fun be in that?

 

[RalphMouth]

Can he stay healthy ?

I say he misses a few games.

3888 yards, 28 TDs, 12 ints

 

[baconisgood]

3. Dallas has quietly done nothing to replace the departure of Laurent Robinson and the WR3 spot or Martellus Bennett at TE2. Ask yourself why?

Robinson was a WW pickup at the end of preseason so they are going into this season basically the same way as last season and Bennett wasn't much of a receiving threat but rated higher as a blocker.

 

[MAC_32]

3. Dallas has quietly done nothing to replace the departure of Laurent Robinson and the WR3 spot or Martellus Bennett at TE2. Ask yourself why?

Robinson was a WW pickup at the end of preseason so they are going into this season basically the same way as last season and Bennett wasn't much of a receiving threat but rated higher as a blocker.

Right, but Robinson was added because no one stepped up to be the 3rd WR. He took advantage of it. Bennett was supposed to develop into a complete TE, but didn't. They (Bennett and the other WR's - i.e. Ogletree) weren't involved in the passing offense, but they were expected to. Now there isn't anyone expected to make the jump. With the improvements on the line Witten should be freed up more, but the improvements on the line can also point towards more running.I'm not as scared off about Romo's prospect as banker, but I see where he's coming from. I'd rather have Rivers, but he's early-mid round plan B.

 

[Mustang Man]

I fully expect another great season from Romo. last season was a great season for him minus the two games everyone talks about. With that said his numbers should fall a bit because Dallas will run the ball more for two reasons. 1. Demarco Murray, he should take pressure off of the Dallas offense and Romo cause this guy has that something extra to make something out of nothing and always seems to see the right hole to go to and get that extra yard. 2. Caiborne and Carr, the Dallas defense should be better and they should be playing with the lead a bit more and not in shootouts in the 4th quarter as they were last year because of a horrid pass defense.

With that said here are my projections

15 Games

480 attempts 321 completions 67% completion %

3700 yards 26 td's 8 int's

18 rushes 55 yards 1 td

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Yeah, but the problem is that in today's NFL, sub-4000 yards, mid-20s TDs, minimal rushing isn't anywhere near a "great season" speaking from a fantasy perspective. If Romo ends up with that type of season, he's definitely not worth his current draft position.

I was liking him again as a "value" QB1 this year, but all the Dallas homers seem to think the team will try to run more, which is making me more nervous about him than I have been in years.

 

[meyerj31]

Yeah, but the problem is that in today's NFL, sub-4000 yards, mid-20s TDs, minimal rushing isn't anywhere near a "great season" speaking from a fantasy perspective. If Romo ends up with that type of season, he's definitely not worth his current draft position.I was liking him again as a "value" QB1 this year, but all the Dallas homers seem to think the team will try to run more, which is making me more nervous about him than I have been in years.

One of the reasons he is still a good value as a late QB1 is because his floor is sub-4000 yards & mid-20s TDs.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Yeah, but the problem is that in today's NFL, sub-4000 yards, mid-20s TDs, minimal rushing isn't anywhere near a "great season" speaking from a fantasy perspective. If Romo ends up with that type of season, he's definitely not worth his current draft position.I was liking him again as a "value" QB1 this year, but all the Dallas homers seem to think the team will try to run more, which is making me more nervous about him than I have been in years.

One of the reasons he is still a good value as a late QB1 is because his floor is sub-4000 yards & mid-20s TDs.

Romo isn't being drafted as a late QB1 though. He's going off the board as QB7. I can get 3700 / 25 from Cutler, Schaub, Ben 2+ rounds later than Romo is going.

 

[Urinal Mint]

I anticipate similar numbers to 2011. The OL hasn't improved any on paper.

If they somehow can conjure up a short-yardage run game, I anticipate his TD numbers dropping slightly (27-ish). His decision-making last year was fantastic (1.92% INT rate). The few poor decisions he made were amplified because his team couldn't figure out how to keep a punt from being blocked, or tackle Bobby Carpenter.

528 att

359 comp

8.1 ypa

4276 yds

27 TDs

9 INTs

24 rush

44 yds

1 TD

 

[Urinal Mint]

2. Jason Garrett is moulding the team into more of his vision. I see Garrett moving away from passing so much and moving closer to the 90's Cowboys offense. The newer model is becasue of the emergence of Murray, who showed signs of being the back the Cowboys have needed for years. The key sign for me was the signing of a top FB in Vickers. This guy is smashmouth and blocked for some of the leagues best rushers. You cant't discount how he helped those run games. I believe the Garrett plan is to insulate Romo from having to carry the entire load with his arm. A vastly improved defense and more formidable run game will mean more wins. By no means does this totally kill Romo's stats, but I think it should give FF drafters some cause for additional thought/analysis.

I disagree somewhat.

I think Garrett is molding this team in his vision... but that is still a throw-first team. They threw 56% of the time last year, which is damn near league average. I don't see that changing. If anything, they will maybe run a little more in short-yardage, but only if the Gs and C can sustain the point of attack. If Phil Costa is still playing C, you can forget about any of that. A good run-blocking FB can do only so much when he has to deal with the OL's assignments on top of his own.

The 90s Dallas offense threw for the lead in the first half, then killed the clock in the second half. This Dallas team won't be able to do that. Most think that the defense will suddenly improve just because they threw money at the secondary. They will still struggle to win 3rd down when Ware is double-teamed and Anthony Spencer is still hugging a RT 5 seconds after the snap. The best DBs on earth cannot sustain coverage that long consistently. I just don't see what everyone else seems to see. I think they'll still be throwing heavily late in contests because they'll remain in close games. I don't anticipate they'll be able to run when they have to and the defense knows about it.

Sorry for the stream-of-consciousness, but I have a lot of thoughts about why this team won't be one iota better in 2012 and it's difficult to put them all out there. However, it all adds up to Romo throwing just as much as he always has and being as successful as he always has, provided Phil Costa doesn't get him killed.

 

[Manster]

Urinal, I'm kinda feeling the same. The O-line very well could be below average. Bernadeau, who was projected as starting at G, is on the PUP. Costa struggled a lot last year. He's still young, maybe he'll be better this season. Livings is average at best. Free got the contract and proceeded to play like crap. Tyron is the bright spot. I feel like Romo may be running for his life and trying to get rid of the ball quickly this year. Once again, it's going to be up to the skill postion guys to get past the shortcomings of the O-line. Not a recipe for success.

Also, I just dont see Garrett trying to pound the rock more, unless this line is somehow very good at run blocking. I'm not gonna hold my breath for that. But more likely the passing threat will open up some running lanes, and they'll run to keep D's honest. The 'Boys will most likely continue to struggle in short yardage running.

In close games, Garrett abandons the run. Hell, when the Boys are up big he abandons the run! Look at the Lions game from last year. The Cowboys were up 27-3 in the 3rd. They coulda went 3 and out/punt the rest of the game, rely on your D, who's held the Lions to 3 so far, and won! Instead you got Romo throwing the ball all over the field. Some of the worst gameday coaching ever.

I see Romo's numbers to be real similar to last season, if he can stay healthy. Maybe a few more INT's.

 

[cobalt_27]

2. Jason Garrett is moulding the team into more of his vision. I see Garrett moving away from passing so much and moving closer to the 90's Cowboys offense. The newer model is becasue of the emergence of Murray, who showed signs of being the back the Cowboys have needed for years. The key sign for me was the signing of a top FB in Vickers. This guy is smashmouth and blocked for some of the leagues best rushers. You cant't discount how he helped those run games. I believe the Garrett plan is to insulate Romo from having to carry the entire load with his arm. A vastly improved defense and more formidable run game will mean more wins. By no means does this totally kill Romo's stats, but I think it should give FF drafters some cause for additional thought/analysis.

I disagree somewhat.

I think Garrett is molding this team in his vision... but that is still a throw-first team. They threw 56% of the time last year, which is damn near league average. I don't see that changing. If anything, they will maybe run a little more in short-yardage, but only if the Gs and C can't sustain the point of attack. If Phil Costa is still playing C, you can forget about any of that. A good run-blocking FB can do only so much when he has to deal with the OL's assignments on top of his own.

The 90s Dallas offense threw for the lead in the first half, then killed the clock in the second half. This Dallas team won't be able to do that. Most think that the defense will suddenly improve just because they threw money at the secondary. They will still struggle to win 3rd down when Ware is double-teamed and Anthony Spencer is still hugging a RT 5 seconds after the snap. The best DBs on earth cannot sustain coverage that long consistently. I just don't see what everyone else seems to see. I think they'll still be throwing heavily late in contests because they'll remain in close games. I don't anticipate they'll be able to run when they have to and the defense knows about it.

Sorry for the stream-of-consciousness, but I have a lot of thoughts about why this team won't be one iota better in 2012 and it's difficult to put them all out there. However, it all adds up to Romo throwing just as much as he always has and being as successful as he always has, provided Phil Costa doesn't get him killed.

If Romo had a decent offensive line, he'd be a top 5 QB with scheme and talent around him. But, I would go so far to say, as currently constructed and without one of these stiffs magically turning into gold...this is one of the worse offensive lines in the league. It's a huge risk for Romo, and I fear significant injury. Jerry did a terrible job protecting his investment.