MSULions, ericttspikes, and Biabreakable: I'm leaning towards Kitna because I think the Detroit game plan will be more airborne than the Dallas gameplan.
Romo vs. Indy D (2nd vs. Pass)
or
Kitna vs. Arizona D (29th vs. Pass)
If you look at the offensive numbers, they're similar over the last 3 games, but Romo gets the nod:
Romo,Tony 68/101, 862 yards, 5 TD, 1 INT
Kitna,Jon 61/98, 792 yards, 5 TD, 4 INT
I like to think that you pick a starter and go with him regardless of opponent, unless there are outstanding circumstances. If we breakdown the defensive numbers of the opponents this week, I believe their are outstanding circumstances at play.
Indy's opponents elect to run against them - they have THE WORST run D in the league. Therefore opponents don't throw against them - Indy's opponents average roughly 26 attempts per game, the lowest average in the NFL. This has lead them to have the 2nd best pass D, allowing only an average 158 pass yards per game. Will Dallas run vs. Indy like everybody else, or can we assume they'll take it to the air as they have in the last three games?
Arizona's opponents elect to pass all over them - they give up nearly 230 yards in the air per game, 29th in the league. That's only over 32 attempts per game, 12th lowest in the NFL, which makes their average yards allowed per pass attempt over 7 - that's 31st in the league!!! It's a whole yard more allowed per pass attempt than QBs gain vs. Indy per attempt, who rank 7th per pass attempt.
QBs vs. Indy the last three weeks:
Week 8 vs. Jake Plummer - 13/21, 174 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT
Week 9 vs. Tom Brady - 20/35, 201 yards, 0 TD, 4 INT
Week 10 vs. JP Losman - 8/12, 83 yards, 0TD, 0 INT
QBs vs. Arizona the last three weeks:
Week 7 vs. Andrew Walter - 17/30, 263 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
Week 8 vs. Brett Favre - 17/25, 180 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT
Week 10 vs. Tony Romo - 20/29, 308 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT
The only flaw in the defensive numbers going completely in favor of starting Kitna is that Arizona's run D sucks as well, and teams have racked up 10 rushing TDs on them, vs. only 9 through the air. Indy has given up 10 rushing TDs, and 10 passing TDs.
I've talked myself into starting Kitna. What will you do this week?
KD
You bring up some great points in favor of Kitna and I have been seeing the same things as well.Indianapolis is soft against the run and it actualy works in thier favor because thier opponents are moving methodicly down the field and playing under control instead of giving up big plays. This is what the cover 2 defense is supposed to do and it is a defense that is geared more towards stopping the passing game and can be suceptable to smash mouth running offenses.
Bill Parcells has some history with using the running game from his days back with the Giants. He is a versitile coach though and this Dallas team is built more for the passing game than it is a running offense. Thier offensive line is still below average and I do not know if it can sustain drives by running the ball. Even against the Colts small but fast defenders. I do think at some point during the game and likely early Dallas will try to run the ball 6 or more times in a row and test how effective they can be while also setting up play action. The 2TE offense that Dallas uses as thier primary formation is actualy better suited for the passing game by flooding the short zone areas on the perimiter.
They will run the ball also to get the safeties to cheat up in the box. The safeties have deep zone responsibilities that is susceptable to play action deep passes over the middle. Which both TO and Witten excell at.
The Colts offense has played rather conservativly based on thier opponent and has seemed satisfied with winning close games instead of opening up thier passing game and blowing thier opponents out. I think they have also done this to focus on establishing thier running game without Edge and getting thier rookie experience while also using TOP to keep thier defense rested.
Dallas however has one of the best defenses in the league right now. They are 4th best against the run and 9th against the pass respectivly. I don't see the Colts being as willing to play conserativly against them on offense. And I expect them to play more 3 WR sets to spread out the defense and take them out of thier ushual 3-4 alignment. They will try to isolate Anthony Henry and Roy Williams in man coverage and exploit that matchup with thier WRs. Probobly for the most part Reggie Wayne.
I don't expect the Colts to play as conservativly on offense against Dallas and as they score this will force Dallas to go to the air and match them. I think this will be a high scoring game.
If Dallas had a more powerful offensive line I could see Dallas being more paitient and shortening the game by running the ball 40 times. But I don't think Dallas is built to do that and thier strength is more in thier recievers. They are going to need them to keep up with the Colts.
My main concern about Romo is his inexperience and therefore the possibility that he will make more mistakes than a veteran Qb like Kitna. However Romo has been playing very efficient and mistake free football over the past 2 games. So I no longer have that concern about him and he deserves to start for me.
Tony Romo's 4 full games starting:
vs Giants 25 attempts 14 completions 227 yards 2 TD
3 interceptions
at Panthers 36 attempts 24 completions 270 yards 1 TD 1 interceptions
at Redskins 36 attempts 24 completions 284 yards 2 TD 0 interceptions
at Cardinals 29 attempts 20 completions 308 yards 2 TD 0 interceptions
Romos 1st game against the Giants was a rough one and he threw 3 intereptions. But he seems to be playing much more consistently now. Also note that his pass attempts went down against the Cardinals because they were in control of the game not allowing the Cardinals to score until late in the 4th quarter having a healthy lead throughout the game. I do not think that will be the case against the Colts this week and therefore I expect Romo to throw the ball at least 35 times possibly more.
Will Romo make mistakes because of the speed pass rushers that the Colts bring like he did against the Giants? Thats certainly possible. But Romo seems to be playing smarter football now than he did in his 1st full start this season.
Jon Kitna on the other hand has thrown at least one interception for 7 games in a row now. Kitna also had a very juicy matchup against the Falcons in week 8 but Kevin Jones ended up rushing in 2 TDs against them despite Atlanta being being a better run defense than the Cardinals are. I can see somthing like this possibly happening again against the Cardinals this week. I also expect the Lions to run the ball more often than normal because of how they lost TOP against the 9ers last week. They need to do a better job of keeping thier defense off the field especialy against the Cardinals great Wrs.
Jon Kitnas best game so far this year came against the Jets 3 weeks ago. Another poor defense. Yet he still threw 2 interceptions in that game.
Jon Kitna 2006:
vs Seahawks 21cmp 37att 229yards 0TD 0 interception
at Bears 23cmp 30att 230yards 0TD 1 interception
vs Packers 25cmp 40att 342yards 2TD 1interception
at Rams 29cmp 43att 280yards 2TD 2interception
at Vikings 23cmp 42att 225yards 1TD 3interception
vs Bills 24cmp 36att 278yards 1TD 1interception
at Jets 22cmp 36att 269yards 3TD 2interception
BYE
vs Falcons 20cmp 32att 321yards 1TD 1interception
vs 49ers 19cmp 30att 202yards 1 1interception
Bottom line is I think both Qbs are performing well for FF. Kitnas matchup does look better than Romo's this week. However Romo has been playing more efficient mistake free football than Kitna has and I think Romo has better weapons in the passing game available to him than Kitna does. I also think that Dallas will be more pressed to score a lot of points than the Lions will be. Although both games could be shootouts.
I am in complete agreement with your statement kerosenedan that "I like to think that you pick a starter and go with him regardless of opponent, unless there are outstanding circumstances. If we breakdown the defensive numbers of the opponents this week, I believe their are outstanding circumstances at play."
If there were ever a matchup situation that would cause me to start Kitna over Romo this weeks situation would be it for the reasons you have given. However going over this all again in depth has lead me to the simple conclushion that Romo is my starting Qb over Kitna from here on out because he is not turning the ball over as much as Kitna has been.
) - but since my top two draft picks: Delhomme and Plummer, have been less than spectacular, I've been playing Kitna most weeks. I've benched him for Romo now and am not looking back. Kitna may get the call against Miami, but otherwise I'm thinking I may just ride this train out. He's put up almost as many points as Delhomme, for example, in half the games.
