Top 200 Forward List (Customized) (1 Viewer)

[Mr. Anonymous]

I was just looking at the Top 200 forward (customized for my league's scoring), and noticed something I'd never noticed before... the "value" column for players does not match what I'd expect given the "total FPT" column.

For example, Gore is RB11 at 43.6 value, Moreno is RB12 at 40.3 value, and Westbrook is RB13 at 40.2 value.

But Gore is expected to score 106.2 points the rest of the season, Moreno 102.2, and Westbrook 110.7.

I would understand value differences across positions that don't conform to points, but I would think RB points are RB points and the value would follow the points up and down in lockstep.

I thought it might be that "value" was based on "total fantasy points per remaining game" - which, if true, would explain why Westbrook is ranked below Moreno - but DeAngelo Williams with 115.3 points (9.6 over remaining 12 games) is ranked higher than Kevin Smith's 108.7 points (9.9 over remaining 11 games).

Anyone understand what "value" is being based on? I would have thought VBD, but VBD should be value agnostic within a position.

 

[werdnoynek]

at the top of the list theres this link to explain value. goodluck.

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2006/0...tionpricing.php

 

[Mr. Anonymous]

Thanks.

I read that article and while I don't have any background in auctions, the article is basically describing value as points vs. a baseline (i.e., worst starter or whatever). The result of that would be that points for a RB should equate in lockstep fashion to value for a RB.

The article is designed for drafting, and there's some formula for taking the rank of a player and multiplying it by a coefficient to determine expected starts out of games to be played (pre-season that would of course be 16).

If the value is using the players' current rank in determining expected starts to determine total fantasy points, that's fine preseason but the logic would seem circular now since it is current rank by value that we are trying to derive to begin with.

If the value is using the players' pre-season rank to determine how many starts the player is likely to have from this point onward, that would seem to be a peculiar thing to do.

If the projected starts is based on some "likelihood of injury coefficient," that could make some sense but the article makes no mention of individualizing projections like that.

So, unless I am missing something, I still don't see what value could be based on other than remaining points or remaining points per game, if I'm comparing one RB to another. Unless the points are discounted by injury risk or something.

 

[werdnoynek]

your guess is as good as mine, i just trust the experts know what they're doing and don't ask questions. i wasnt sure if you saw that article or not. sry i couldn't be of more assistance, and again, goodluck.