Travdogg's positional rankings from week 5 onward (1 Viewer)

[travdogg]

QB
Tier 1:
1. Josh Allen (3)
2. Jalen Hurts (2)
3. Patrick Mahomes (1)
Tier 2:
4. Justin Herbert (4)
5. Lamar Jackson (5)
6. Trevor Lawrence (6)
Tier 3:
7. Anthony Richardson (9)
8. Tua Tagovailoa (8)
9. Justin Fields (12)
10. Joe Burrow (10)
Tier 4:
11. Kirk Cousins (7), I knew I should have never moved him up. He always does this. He's a low-end QB1, that's just what he always is.
12. CJ Stroud (NR), averaging over 300 YPG despite a down week 1. Hitting all kinds of big plays. He's easily looked like the best NFL player of the 2023 class.
13. Russell Wilson (NR), he's legit playing well. 9-2 TD/INT ratio, and 300 yards or multiple TDs every week.
14. Matthew Stafford (NR), he's had some awful TD luck that should correct itself, and is seemingly getting Kupp back. Hitting 300 yards consistently.
15. Geno Smith (11), didn't get much volume Monday, and that seems to be a trend in games Seattle controls, how good is Seattle? Weapons will always keep him viable.

Dropped off: Daniel Jones (13), OL is awful, and he's not helping at all. The rushing keeps him viable, but until Thoams/Barkley return, this is a rough offense. Dak Prescott (14), hasn't shown any ceiling so far and has long stopped being a runner. Jared Goff (15), last omission, but he feels like a lower ceiling then the guys who passed him this week.

 

[travdogg]

RB
Tier 1:
1. Christian McCaffrey (1)
2. Austin Ekeler (2)
3. Bijan Robinson (4)
4. Tony Pollard (3)
Tier 2:
5. Kenneth Walker (13), more explosive David Montgomery in a way. He's Seattle's #1 option in the redzone, and the big plays will happen more as the OL gets healthy.
6. Saquon Barkley (5)
7. Derrick Henry (8)
8. Travis Etienne (6)
9. Josh Jacobs (10)
10. Joe Mixon (7)
Tier 3:
11. Jonathan Taylor (12)
12. Aaron Jones (11)
13. D'Andre Swift (14)
14. Alvin Kamara (16)
15. Rhamondre Stevenson (9)
Tier 4:
16. De'Von Achane (24), he's the RB to own in Miami, TD's will slow down, but touches could/should increase.
17. David Montgomery (NR), seems like 20 carries and a TD is a reasonable expectation every week. Shocked how involved he was coming off injury.
18. James Cook (15)
19. Kyren Williams (20)
20. Isiah Pacheco (26)
21. Jerome Ford (19)
Tier 5:
22. Brian Robinson (25)
23. James Conner (21)
24. Khalil Herbert (NR), he's just better than Roschon, that should be clear to anyone watching Bears games. Leads the NFL in missed tackles forced per attempt.
25. Dameon Pierce (23)
26. Miles Sanders (17), volume dependent guys on teams always trailing offer little upside. Not too worried about Hubbard, I think that was more about Sanders health, but he's tough to like right now.
27. Rachaad White (22)
28. Breece Hall (30)
29. Jahmyr Gibbs (18), he's not going to just fade away, and has upside if Monty can't handle his crazy workload, but he's more of a stash away, than a flex type right now.
30. Raheem Mostert (NR), offense is probably too explosive to dismiss him, but I hope everyone sold high when they had the chance.

Dropped off: Alexander Mattison (27), can be viable in Vikings wins, but Akers instantly saw more work than Chandler ever did. Javonte Williams (28), hurt and suddenly in a 3-man RBBC. Najee Harris (29), had his best game, but still isn't separating from Warren, and offense looks awful.

 

[travdogg]

WR
Tier 1:
1. Tyreek Hill (1)
2. Justin Jefferson (2)
3. Keenan Allen (6)
4. Stefon Diggs (3)
5. AJ Brown (10)
Tier 2:
6. Davante Adams (7)
7. Amon-Ra St. Brown (8)
8. CeeDee Lamb (4)
9. Chris Olave (9)
10. Ja'Marr Chase (5)
Tier 3:
11. DeVonta Smith (12)
12. Calvin Ridley (11)
13. Jaylen Waddle (13)
Tier 4:
14. Cooper Kupp (16)
15. DK Metcalf (17)
16. Amari Cooper (15)
17. Tee Higgins (14)
Tier 5:
18. Brandon Aiyuk (21)
19. Puka Nacua (29), he's not going away when Kupp comes back, he just can't. I think Kupp has a higher ceiling being that he was the #1 overall WR in 2021 AND 2022 before injury, but this is an offense that also could use passes as runs and really goose PPR production for both.
20. Mike Evans (18)
21. Deebo Samuel (19)
Tier 6:
22. Garrett Wilson (20)
23. Michael Pittman (32), he's really the toughest WR to rank for me. Seems like Taylor returning would do wonders for the PA game, which Pittman thrives on, and until last week, his volume was outstanding, however, I also think he's more of a #2 NFL WR, masquerading as a #1.
24. Nico Collins (37), currently WR7. He's got some boom/bust nature to his game, but clearly the booms are very nice. I'm probably not going high enough.
25. Adam Thielen (26)
26. Hollywood Brown (30)
27. Christian Kirk (39), he's been outproducing Ridley, but that feels fluky to me. Still, he's the clear #2 at worst.
28. Romeo Doubs (NR), has 3 top-16 weeks out of 4. Are we sure he's not the #1 for Love?
29. DJ Moore (27)
30. Christian Watson (23)
31. Tyler Lockett (22)
32. Chris Godwin (28)
33. Zay Flowers (33)
Tier 7:
34. Terry McLaurin (34)
35. George Pickens (25), Johnson is getting closer to returning and the offense is in shambles. His talent keeps him viable, but he's hard to trust as more than a WR3.
36. Jerry Jeudy (NR), has had 2 TDs taken off the board that would really goose his numbers up. Still think he's Denver's best WR, especially as Payton seems to want to bring Mims along as slowly as possible.
Tier 8:
37. Jordan Addison (38)
38. Drake London (35)
39. DeAndre Hopkins (36)
40. Diontae Johnson (NR), should be back in 2 weeks, and is the clear #1 when he is, even though its in an atrocious offense. Can't say whether Pickett getting hurt matters at all.

Dropped off: Jakobi Meyers (24), possible overreaction to a backup QB game, but I think a lot of Meyers work was due to Jacobs being ineffective. Seems like they've at least figured out what to do with Jacobs now, and it was a target fest. I'm always a little low on floor play guys. Tank Dell (31), still like him, but was premature thinking he was a reliable guy. Michael Thomas (40), just has no upside at all. Carr also looked like he should have been sitting.

 

[travdogg]

TE
Tier 1:
1. Travis Kelce (1)
2. Mark Andrews (3)
3. TJ Hockenson (2)
Tier 2:
4. Darren Waller (4)
5. George Kittle (5)
6. Sam LaPorta (6)
7. Dallas Goedert (7)
Tier 3:
8. Evan Engram (8)
9. Kyle Pitts (NR), TE is a wasteland, Pitts is not a good start right now. This ranking is entirely based on the potential switch to Heinicke at QB, would could happen as soon as next week if Ridder keeps looking like the worst QB in the NFL.
10. Pat Freiermuth (9)
11. Dalton Kincaid (NR), production hasn't been following, but his routes have gone from 38%-41%-43%-71% this season, whihc could suggest a breakout is on the way. Frankly after the top-7 (arguably top-3) you are grasping at straws at TE.
Tier 4:
12. Jake Ferguson (13)
13. Zach Ertz (14)
14. Luke Musgrave (12), Doubs has really stepped up, so I'm not sure Musgrave will be involved every week, but he's got a lot of upside in a boom/bust way.
15. Hunter Henry (10), he's been productive, but this offense feels like its going off the rails, and I'm not trusting any part of it other than Stevenson (who is also on thin ice)

Dropped off: Tyler Higbee (11), expecting his target share to decline severely with Kupp's return. Higbee will be somewhere 3-5 most weeks in the pecking order. David Njoku (15), no TDs, no games over 50 yards, and best game was without Watson. Feels like Moore is the #2 after Cooper.

 

[Bozeman Bruiser]

We all want to see our late draft picks and waiver darlings who are blowing up higher on your list but I appreciate the conservative approach you take. It helps to humble the hype and keep active on the waiver wire rather than sitting around counting rings.

Thanks for taking the time to do this every week, it is helpful.

 

[The Dude]

The big mover I see coming is Pierce. 3 starting OL due back in next 2 weeks

 

[The Dude]

Jake Ferguson at least 1 tier to low - maybe 2

 

[chad in Indy]

Why so low on Kyren Williams? Plays on high percentage of the snaps, averaging 15+ touches/targets per game and all the RZ looks. Offense looks good and will see less stacked boxes with that receiving core playing well (even wo Kupp) Are you expecting a drop in the Rams performance moving forward or just the unknown McVay factor? Or something else?

 

[Stealthycat]

Kyren Williams no respect

he's top 5 in most leagues is he not ?

 

[The Gator]

Jake Ferguson at least 1 tier to low - maybe 2

I'd take him over two guys in tier 2.

 

[dschuler]

These rankings really seem onpoint, great job. Only two things:

I think Sam LaPorta should be firmly #4 or higher, TEs absolute dumpster fire overall.

Not a ranking disagreement now as he could fall again after this week, but I think Rhamondre could really have a strong second half of the season and be RB5ish in the back half. A good buy low candidate.

 

[Tau837]

 

[dmac37]

The big mover I see coming is Pierce. 3 starting OL due back in next 2 weeks

THIS! With the passing game working and the OL becoming healthy, he is set up to be a great buy low.

 

[VikingFrog]

TE
Tier 1:
1. Travis Kelce (1)
2. Mark Andrews (3)
3. TJ Hockenson (2)
Tier 2:
4. Darren Waller (4)
5. George Kittle (5)
6. Sam LaPorta (6)
7. Dallas Goedert (7)
Tier 3:
8. Evan Engram (8)
9. Kyle Pitts (NR), TE is a wasteland, Pitts is not a good start right now. This ranking is entirely based on the potential switch to Heinicke at QB, would could happen as soon as next week if Ridder keeps looking like the worst QB in the NFL.
10. Pat Freiermuth (9)
11. Dalton Kincaid (NR), production hasn't been following, but his routes have gone from 38%-41%-43%-71% this season, whihc could suggest a breakout is on the way. Frankly after the top-7 (arguably top-3) you are grasping at straws at TE.
Tier 4:
12. Jake Ferguson (13)
13. Zach Ertz (14)
14. Luke Musgrave (12), Doubs has really stepped up, so I'm not sure Musgrave will be involved every week, but he's got a lot of upside in a boom/bust way.
15. Hunter Henry (10), he's been productive, but this offense feels like its going off the rails, and I'm not trusting any part of it other than Stevenson (who is also on thin ice)

Dropped off: Tyler Higbee (11), expecting his target share to decline severely with Kupp's return. Higbee will be somewhere 3-5 most weeks in the pecking order. David Njoku (15), no TDs, no games over 50 yards, and best game was without Watson. Feels like Moore is the #2 after Cooper.

Will be interested to see if Kmet can crack your rankings. Chasing points is never fun but he’s getting targets.

 

[efactor]

Cousins had an outlier game where Carolina had the ball for 39 minutes due to a weird game script. Only threw 19 passes.

 

[travdogg]

The big mover I see coming is Pierce. 3 starting OL due back in next 2 weeks

Pierce could certainly move up a little. He could be a bit better version of Brian Robinson. I just think his lack of receiving limits his ceiling a bit, and he isn't in an offense like the Rams or Lions who seem pretty committed to just force feeding a guy at the goal line. I think he's limited to RB2 status, but could certainly jump from low-end to high-end if things break right.

Jake Ferguson at least 1 tier to low - maybe 2

I have been impressed, but he simply doesn't play enough to fully get behind. If he went from his just over 60% snap share to like 80%, he'd basically be LaPorta with less speed. But Dallas has shown zero signs of making that move and seem to like getting Hendershot and Schoonmaker (the longest named 2-person law firm) their shares too.

 

[travdogg]

These rankings really seem onpoint, great job. Only two things:

I think Sam LaPorta should be firmly #4 or higher, TEs absolute dumpster fire overall.

Not a ranking disagreement now as he could fall again after this week, but I think Rhamondre could really have a strong second half of the season and be RB5ish in the back half. A good buy low candidate.

I can see the case for LaPorta as high as high #4 (I'd love to hear you case for higher though) but I am deferring to guys with multiple top-4 finishes over a guy with 4 games. That said, I view tiers as everyone in that tier is basically close to coin flip other than a few exceptions (like CMC/Kelce) because I loathe 1 player tiers. I do think Waller/Kittle are both decent buy-low guys. They are too talented to stay too low. I mean Waller is TE12 in a worst-case scenario (no blocking, no other weapons) and Kittle had a stretch like this last year, and finished TE2. I do wonder if Jameson Williams return hurts LaPorta a bit, simply because its not a pass 1st team. Its possible Williams takes from Raymond/Reynolds, or that Williams just isn't good, but its an unknown variable.

Stevenson is a tough guy to rank for me. I love his talent, but he also has looked a lot less impressive this year, and I don't think its just the offense. They need to get him going as a pass catcher again in my opinion.

I almost put Stevenson and all of 12-20 in a tier, and moved Taylor into tier 2, but there is just enough uncertainty with Taylor that I decided to make it 2 separate tiers.

Will be interested to see if Kmet can crack your rankings. Chasing points is never fun but he’s getting targets.

I'm not ready to trust Fields as a passer yet, but Kmet was basically the last omission. TE is such a mess. Kmet is certainly on the radar.

 

[travdogg]

Why so low on Kyren Williams? Plays on high percentage of the snaps, averaging 15+ touches/targets per game and all the RZ looks. Offense looks good and will see less stacked boxes with that receiving core playing well (even wo Kupp) Are you expecting a drop in the Rams performance moving forward or just the unknown McVay factor? Or something else?

Kyren Williams no respect

he's top 5 in most leagues is he not ?

Its kinda funny how fantasy football works. I feel like I was the first guy on this board talking up Kyren Williams as a reason to not like Cam Akers in August, and after week 1, I was the guy calling him an RB2 before Akers was officially benched.

I think Williams is an ok RB, with a great role, in a good offense. If you wanted to argue him over James Cook or even Alvin Kamara I probably wouldn't fight it too hard. However, he's not going to be a top-5 RB, he's simply not good enough. If someone thinks he will, I'd strongly advise to sell him to that person.

I have Williams on 3 teams, its been nice, but its also been a little fluky with the TDs. The Rams have had an inordinate amount of times a WR got tackled right before the goal line (just as Puka not having a TD through 3 games was fluky) these things have a tendency to even out over time. Williams is a solid RB2, who is on a TD heater. For the price, he's probably been the pickup of the year so far. But this is very much the ceiling we are seeing, and I doubt it lasts (at this top-5 level) for too much longer.

Cousins had an outlier game where Carolina had the ball for 39 minutes due to a weird game script. Only threw 19 passes.

Its not entirely because of just that game. Its just a nagging feeling that I never should have moved him up so high to begin with.

 

[jobarules]

Cousins had an outlier game where Carolina had the ball for 39 minutes due to a weird game script. Only threw 19 passes.

He still threw 2 tds. Mahomes wasn't much better.

 

[Pip's Invitation]

In my 6-point pass TD leagues, Cousins is still QB3 even after the dud game against Carolina.

 

[chad in Indy]

Williams is an ok RB, with a great role, in a good offense. If you wanted to argue him over James Cook or even Alvin Kamara I probably wouldn't fight it too hard. However, he's not going to be a top-5 RB, he's simply not good enough. If someone thinks he will, I'd strongly advise to sell him to that perso

I get the James Robinson a la 2020 vibes but with more talent.

 

[TampaMike19]

Cousins had an outlier game where Carolina had the ball for 39 minutes due to a weird game script. Only threw 19 passes.

That's the problem. Minnesota D can be run on and defenses are going to try to keep their offense off of the field. Cousins always has horrible games each year.

 

[TampaMike19]

I think the problem with Kyren is that he's dinged up and that he's a McVay back. The rug can be pulled at any time so ride it while it's hot. Also, I imagine Kupp will be eating a lot into Kyren's production.

I think Kyren is tier 3 though, behind Achane in some capacity.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Thank you @travdogg These are super helpful. And I don't think a lot of people realize how difficult these are to do. Our rest of season rankings take a ton of time each week and they're a challenge. https://www.footballguys.com/rankings/duration/rest-of-season?pos=qb

Thanks for sharing.

It's especially useful for discussions like the Lions RBs to have real numbers and rankings.

 

[jobarules]

Kirk cousins has one bad game- "i know I should've moved him down rankings"

Justin fields has one good game, Joe burrow and Trevor Lawrence has zero good games. Every qb has a bad game. Allen had one week 1. Mahomes had one last week. Both vs jets.

 

[mphtrilogy]

Breece will be Top 20 after this week.

 

[Joe Bryant]

And for sure, finding the right balance between adjusting too quickly and not quick enough is the most difficult part in my opinion.

 

[dschuler]

I can see the case for LaPorta as high as high #4 (I'd love to hear you case for higher though) but I am deferring to guys with multiple top-4 finishes over a guy with 4 games.

I think Kelce is a tier of his own and then Andrews, Hock, and LaPorta are all about the same and wouldn’t disagree with any ranking 2-4 of them and all carry their own risk. I actually think Andrews carries the most risk of the three but also the most upside. He’s playing with a QB that has never averaged over 200 yards per game and both Andrews and Lamar have a long injury history. The flip side is if Lamar get his passing numbers up in the new offense and they both stay healthy he could put up number similar to Kelce. The risk for LaPorta is him being a rookie and Jameson Williams coming back. For Hock, I think there is about a decent chance Cousins doesn’t finish the year as the starter, right in time for fantasy playoffs. They have KC, Chi, SF and will likely lose 2/3 which will make them 2-5. If they lose @GB then @ATL they are 2-7 and likely looking towards next year.

 

[zoonation]

I don’t understand the Montgomery ranking at all.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

I don’t understand the Montgomery ranking at all.

when the dude making the ranking says that 20 carries and a td is a fair expectation week to week—and then proceeds to rank him as a middle tier RB2–that just doesn’t make much sense to me. If Montgomery is healthy and playing—you have to start him. I feel like every Montgomery owner feels that way. Sure—he’s bound to have a bad game here or there—but his stats, his usage, and the way his team is playing should put him as an RB1 until something changes imo.

 

[jobarules]

I don’t understand the Montgomery ranking at all.

when the dude making the ranking says that 20 carries and a td is a fair expectation week to week—and then proceeds to rank him as a middle tier RB2–that just doesn’t make much sense to me. If Montgomery is healthy and playing—you have to start him. I feel like every Montgomery owner feels that way. Sure—he’s bound to have a bad game here or there—but his stats, his usage, and the way his team is playing should put him as an RB1 until something changes imo.

I am not criticizing @travdogg at all and absolutely love this thread every week. However, he does tend to lean towards his original rankings more than changing them based on what's happening on the actual field of play week to week. Things change quickly in the NFL and his rankings should change just as quickly IMO. Its the problem MOST experts have in rankings and he's not immune. Montgomery is a perfect example. Kyren Williams is another. These 2 are both locked in RB1s.

 

[wgoldsph]

First thank you for coming to your senses about Watson. I don't care about the injury, even healthy he's toast.

Second Hunter Henry being so low is criminal. "TE is terrible" yet a player who is 2nd on his team in targets and first in receptions barely makes the list behind rookies (Kincade), players in offenses totally devoid of offense (Waller, Muth), and simply don't receive targets (Pitts, Geodert).

Henry is an 8 year vet. It's his second year in the offense. He's not a top 3 guy, but he knows how to block and he knows how to get open. That's all you need to be a tier two TE.

 

[RenegadeRoy]

Travdogg is less reactionary, which I respect. Might not always be "correct" but few fantasy rankers/analysts are.

 

[CanaBuc]

I think Wilson and Hall are ranked much too low. Schedule opens up after tough 4 game start of defenses.

Hall now spirally won't be limited.

Wilson getting prepared with targets( 14 last game) and Zach looking not bad against a stout defense...

 

[travdogg]

Kirk cousins has one bad game- "i know I should've moved him down rankings"

Justin fields has one good game, Joe burrow and Trevor Lawrence has zero good games. Every qb has a bad game. Allen had one week 1. Mahomes had one last week. Both vs jets.

Its more than that with Cousins. I had a lot of trepidation about moving him above low-end QB1 in the first place. He's historically one of those guys who is very consistent year to year, but wildly inconsistent week to week.

I think all of those QBs offer more upside then Cousins, though it might take a few weeks in Burrow's case. That said, I'd rather start someone like Stafford until Burrow is healthy, then just rely on Cousins, and QB2s who can start in a pinch grow on trees in 1 QB leagues.

Breece will be Top 20 after this week.

He'll be in the RB2 conversation as soon as they stop being a 3-RB offense, 1/3rd of the snaps going to Michael Carter is beyond frustrating.

 

[Ray Barboni]

Kirk cousins has one bad game- "i know I should've moved him down rankings"

Justin fields has one good game, Joe burrow and Trevor Lawrence has zero good games. Every qb has a bad game. Allen had one week 1. Mahomes had one last week. Both vs jets.

Its more than that with Cousins. I had a lot of trepidation about moving him above low-end QB1 in the first place. He's historically one of those guys who is very consistent year to year, but wildly inconsistent week to week.

I think all of those QBs offer more upside then Cousins, though it might take a few weeks in Burrow's case. That said, I'd rather start someone like Stafford until Burrow is healthy, then just rely on Cousins, and QB2s who can start in a pinch grow on trees in 1 QB leagues.

Breece will be Top 20 after this week.

He'll be in the RB2 conversation as soon as they stop being a 3-RB offense, 1/3rd of the snaps going to Michael Carter is beyond frustrating.

Heard today coach Salah said there would no longer be a usage restriction placed on Breece.

Buy low window slamming shut after this week

 

[travdogg]

I don’t understand the Montgomery ranking at all.

when the dude making the ranking says that 20 carries and a td is a fair expectation week to week—and then proceeds to rank him as a middle tier RB2–that just doesn’t make much sense to me. If Montgomery is healthy and playing—you have to start him. I feel like every Montgomery owner feels that way. Sure—he’s bound to have a bad game here or there—but his stats, his usage, and the way his team is playing should put him as an RB1 until something changes imo.

I don’t understand the Montgomery ranking at all.

when the dude making the ranking says that 20 carries and a td is a fair expectation week to week—and then proceeds to rank him as a middle tier RB2–that just doesn’t make much sense to me. If Montgomery is healthy and playing—you have to start him. I feel like every Montgomery owner feels that way. Sure—he’s bound to have a bad game here or there—but his stats, his usage, and the way his team is playing should put him as an RB1 until something changes imo.

I am not criticizing @travdogg at all and absolutely love this thread every week. However, he does tend to lean towards his original rankings more than changing them based on what's happening on the actual field of play week to week. Things change quickly in the NFL and his rankings should change just as quickly IMO. Its the problem MOST experts have in rankings and he's not immune. Montgomery is a perfect example. Kyren Williams is another. These 2 are both locked in RB1s.

With Montgomery its a dramatic difference in PPR and non-PPR leagues. I'm kinda splitting the difference.

With both Williams and Montgomery, I like the workloads, but I'm always a little nervous about high TD guys, who are under 4 YPC. If the workload gets even a little smaller they could both suffer a ton, and in Monty's case, he has the #12 pick behind him, though well behind him at the moment. If they can keep there workloads and TDs, then they are both too low. I have shares of both, and while I'm not necessarily looking to sell high, I do feel like they are both at their peak right now. Having said that, I could see either of them as high as 12 I guess. I strongly considered Taylor in tier 2, and having Jones down to Pacheco as tier 3. So I have no problem with someone feeling like, right now anyway, Monty is a low-end RB1.

I can see the case for LaPorta as high as high #4 (I'd love to hear you case for higher though) but I am deferring to guys with multiple top-4 finishes over a guy with 4 games.

I think Kelce is a tier of his own and then Andrews, Hock, and LaPorta are all about the same and wouldn’t disagree with any ranking 2-4 of them and all carry their own risk. I actually think Andrews carries the most risk of the three but also the most upside. He’s playing with a QB that has never averaged over 200 yards per game and both Andrews and Lamar have a long injury history. The flip side is if Lamar get his passing numbers up in the new offense and they both stay healthy he could put up number similar to Kelce. The risk for LaPorta is him being a rookie and Jameson Williams coming back. For Hock, I think there is about a decent chance Cousins doesn’t finish the year as the starter, right in time for fantasy playoffs. They have KC, Chi, SF and will likely lose 2/3 which will make them 2-5. If they lose @GB then @ATL they are 2-7 and likely looking towards next year.

I feel like I have to be a stickler here, and point out that if you throw out his rookie season where they just threw him in with no real plan, Lamar has averaged over 200 yards per game for his career. He was at 240 a game in 2021 (Andrews best season)

Why would Cousins not be the starter? Its not like Minnesota has some young QB to get a look at.

 

[dschuler]

I don’t understand the Montgomery ranking at all.

when the dude making the ranking says that 20 carries and a td is a fair expectation week to week—and then proceeds to rank him as a middle tier RB2–that just doesn’t make much sense to me. If Montgomery is healthy and playing—you have to start him. I feel like every Montgomery owner feels that way. Sure—he’s bound to have a bad game here or there—but his stats, his usage, and the way his team is playing should put him as an RB1 until something changes imo.

I don’t understand the Montgomery ranking at all.

when the dude making the ranking says that 20 carries and a td is a fair expectation week to week—and then proceeds to rank him as a middle tier RB2–that just doesn’t make much sense to me. If Montgomery is healthy and playing—you have to start him. I feel like every Montgomery owner feels that way. Sure—he’s bound to have a bad game here or there—but his stats, his usage, and the way his team is playing should put him as an RB1 until something changes imo.

I am not criticizing @travdogg at all and absolutely love this thread every week. However, he does tend to lean towards his original rankings more than changing them based on what's happening on the actual field of play week to week. Things change quickly in the NFL and his rankings should change just as quickly IMO. Its the problem MOST experts have in rankings and he's not immune. Montgomery is a perfect example. Kyren Williams is another. These 2 are both locked in RB1s.

With Montgomery its a dramatic difference in PPR and non-PPR leagues. I'm kinda splitting the difference.

With both Williams and Montgomery, I like the workloads, but I'm always a little nervous about high TD guys, who are under 4 YPC. If the workload gets even a little smaller they could both suffer a ton, and in Monty's case, he has the #12 pick behind him, though well behind him at the moment. If they can keep there workloads and TDs, then they are both too low. I have shares of both, and while I'm not necessarily looking to sell high, I do feel like they are both at their peak right now. Having said that, I could see either of them as high as 12 I guess. I strongly considered Taylor in tier 2, and having Jones down to Pacheco as tier 3. So I have no problem with someone feeling like, right now anyway, Monty is a low-end RB1.

I can see the case for LaPorta as high as high #4 (I'd love to hear you case for higher though) but I am deferring to guys with multiple top-4 finishes over a guy with 4 games.

I think Kelce is a tier of his own and then Andrews, Hock, and LaPorta are all about the same and wouldn’t disagree with any ranking 2-4 of them and all carry their own risk. I actually think Andrews carries the most risk of the three but also the most upside. He’s playing with a QB that has never averaged over 200 yards per game and both Andrews and Lamar have a long injury history. The flip side is if Lamar get his passing numbers up in the new offense and they both stay healthy he could put up number similar to Kelce. The risk for LaPorta is him being a rookie and Jameson Williams coming back. For Hock, I think there is about a decent chance Cousins doesn’t finish the year as the starter, right in time for fantasy playoffs. They have KC, Chi, SF and will likely lose 2/3 which will make them 2-5. If they lose @GB then @ATL they are 2-7 and likely looking towards next year.

I feel like I have to be a stickler here, and point out that if you throw out his rookie season where they just threw him in with no real plan, Lamar has averaged over 200 yards per game for his career. He was at 240 a game in 2021 (Andrews best season)

Why would Cousins not be the starter? Its not like Minnesota has some young QB to get a look at.

Lamar’s highest passing total was 3,187. He doesn’t throw enough or stay healthy enough to sustain a truly dynamic offense. Even with Flowers, OBJ, Bateman, and Andrews he’s only averaging 198 a game this season.

The Vikings drafted a QB last year. The team has an awful defense and is in a rebuild. Kirk is 35 and on the last year of his deal. They are already 1-3 and play SF and KC in two of the next three weeks. Good chance they are out of the playoff hunt by December.

 

[greenmountaingoat]

The big mover I see coming is Pierce. 3 starting OL due back in next 2 weeks

Pierce could certainly move up a little. He could be a bit better version of Brian Robinson. I just think his lack of receiving limits his ceiling a bit, and he isn't in an offense like the Rams or Lions who seem pretty committed to just force feeding a guy at the goal line. I think he's limited to RB2 status, but could certainly jump from low-end to high-end if things break right.

Jake Ferguson at least 1 tier to low - maybe 2

I have been impressed, but he simply doesn't play enough to fully get behind. If he went from his just over 60% snap share to like 80%, he'd basically be LaPorta with less speed. But Dallas has shown zero signs of making that move and seem to like getting Hendershot and Schoonmaker (the longest named 2-person law firm) their shares too.

WRT Fergie, I think that the dip in snaps was blowout related. Couldn't watch the end of that game but could have sworn I heard that. Waller way too high for me on this list. The pre-season smoke (which I bought into btw) was just that IMO. Between him not really out there dominating and the OL/ Jones implosion. Today's TE12 in PPR. Team looked clueless twice already. Maybe a buy low window? you a braver cat than me, hombre. I can guarantee you the Waller owners are feeling pretty low on him right now.

I'd rather have LaPorta, Kittle, Engram or Fergie at this point. It's not as thought TD regression is going to all the sudden happen in this petri dish of offensive firepower. I think Waller owners are eyeing quite a few dudes lower on this list with envy. Kittle OTOH, I feel like the multi TD games are just a matter of time.

 

[efactor]

The big mover I see coming is Pierce. 3 starting OL due back in next 2 weeks

Pierce could certainly move up a little. He could be a bit better version of Brian Robinson. I just think his lack of receiving limits his ceiling a bit, and he isn't in an offense like the Rams or Lions who seem pretty committed to just force feeding a guy at the goal line. I think he's limited to RB2 status, but could certainly jump from low-end to high-end if things break right.

Jake Ferguson at least 1 tier to low - maybe 2

I have been impressed, but he simply doesn't play enough to fully get behind. If he went from his just over 60% snap share to like 80%, he'd basically be LaPorta with less speed. But Dallas has shown zero signs of making that move and seem to like getting Hendershot and Schoonmaker (the longest named 2-person law firm) their shares too.

WRT Fergie, I think that the dip in snaps was blowout related. Couldn't watch the end of that game but could have sworn I heard that. Waller way too high for me on this list. The pre-season smoke (which I bought into btw) was just that IMO. Between him not really out there dominating and the OL/ Jones implosion. Today's TE12 in PPR. Team looked clueless twice already. Maybe a buy low window? you a braver cat than me, hombre. I can guarantee you the Waller owners are feeling pretty low on him right now.

I'd rather have LaPorta, Kittle, Engram or Fergie at this point. It's not as thought TD regression is going to all the sudden happen in this petri dish of offensive firepower. I think Waller owners are eyeing quite a few dudes lower on this list with envy. Kittle OTOH, I feel like the multi TD games are just a matter of time.

Kittle will have a big game if either Aiyuk or Deebo are out. His target share was a gross 11 percent last year when everyone was healthy. His only good game this year was week 3 when Aiyuk was out. Even with Deebo basically being a decoy last week, nada.

As a 49er fan, i think it's foolish to not throw to kittle more but they are scoring 30 plus a game so hard to argue.

 

[greenmountaingoat]

As a 49er fan, i think it's foolish to not throw to kittle more but they are scoring 30 plus a game so hard to argue.

But who would you rather have on your redraft roster right now. Only full ppr is even a question IMO.

 

[taylormeetstheismann]

but wildly inconsistent week to week.

I’m having a hard time wrapping my head around the idea that a player can be very consistent season to season yet not from game to game.

Can you provide some examples of players that have been models of consistency from game to game over a long period of time?

 

[travdogg]

Lamar’s highest passing total was 3,187. He doesn’t throw enough or stay healthy enough to sustain a truly dynamic offense. Even with Flowers, OBJ, Bateman, and Andrews he’s only averaging 198 a game this season.

The Vikings drafted a QB last year. The team has an awful defense and is in a rebuild. Kirk is 35 and on the last year of his deal. They are already 1-3 and play SF and KC in two of the next three weeks. Good chance they are out of the playoff hunt by December.

Lamar would have easily passed that total if not for injury. He has also lead the NFL in TD passes in his career. I think Andrews is a ton safer than LaPorta, who I like, but has played 4 career games. Andrews is also a lead target, which LaPorta isn't and probably will never be as long as Amon-Ra is around. No slight to LaPorta, but I think Andrews has both a higher ceiling and higher floor.

0% chance Kirk Cousins gets benched for Jaren Hall. Now, there is a scenario, where the Vikings are like 1-6 or something like that, and somebody like Atlanta trades for Cousins. But he's not getting benched.

The big mover I see coming is Pierce. 3 starting OL due back in next 2 weeks

Pierce could certainly move up a little. He could be a bit better version of Brian Robinson. I just think his lack of receiving limits his ceiling a bit, and he isn't in an offense like the Rams or Lions who seem pretty committed to just force feeding a guy at the goal line. I think he's limited to RB2 status, but could certainly jump from low-end to high-end if things break right.

Jake Ferguson at least 1 tier to low - maybe 2

I have been impressed, but he simply doesn't play enough to fully get behind. If he went from his just over 60% snap share to like 80%, he'd basically be LaPorta with less speed. But Dallas has shown zero signs of making that move and seem to like getting Hendershot and Schoonmaker (the longest named 2-person law firm) their shares too.

WRT Fergie, I think that the dip in snaps was blowout related. Couldn't watch the end of that game but could have sworn I heard that. Waller way too high for me on this list. The pre-season smoke (which I bought into btw) was just that IMO. Between him not really out there dominating and the OL/ Jones implosion. Today's TE12 in PPR. Team looked clueless twice already. Maybe a buy low window? you a braver cat than me, hombre. I can guarantee you the Waller owners are feeling pretty low on him right now.

I'd rather have LaPorta, Kittle, Engram or Fergie at this point. It's not as thought TD regression is going to all the sudden happen in this petri dish of offensive firepower. I think Waller owners are eyeing quite a few dudes lower on this list with envy. Kittle OTOH, I feel like the multi TD games are just a matter of time.

No reason to think Ferguson's share is blowout related. He's been between 46% and 67% in every game this season, and the 67% was this past week, when Hendershot (between 24%-48%) was out.

I think Waller will be fine. He's TE12 with everything going wrong. He was leading the position in yardage after week 2, when Thomas and Barkley went down. He might be a buy-low, the same way Burrow is, where you don't necessarily want to start him this week, but his value is likely going to be a lot higher in a few weeks. I can certainly understand the argument for LaPorta or Kittle over him, but Ferguson is pushing it to me, unless Dallas makes major usage changes.

Engram is a high floor guy, who will likely finish right around where I have him ranked. I'm naturally someone who shies away from these archetypes. If you are a manager who values consistency above all else, Engram is your game. I think we are all wired a little different when it comes to team building.

Totally agree on Kittle. He's sort of the mirror version of Engram, where he'll finish around where I have him, but be wildly inconsistent week to week. One of these weeks he'll have a 8-140-2 game, but its tough to pinpoint when. Thankfully at TE moreso than any other position, you aren't missing out on much if you keep trotting him out in the 2-18 weeks that he has.

 

[Desert_Power]

Kirk cousins has one bad game- "i know I should've moved him down rankings"

Justin fields has one good game, Joe burrow and Trevor Lawrence has zero good games. Every qb has a bad game. Allen had one week 1. Mahomes had one last week. Both vs jets.

Its more than that with Cousins. I had a lot of trepidation about moving him above low-end QB1 in the first place. He's historically one of those guys who is very consistent year to year, but wildly inconsistent week to week.

I think all of those QBs offer more upside then Cousins, though it might take a few weeks in Burrow's case. That said, I'd rather start someone like Stafford until Burrow is healthy, then just rely on Cousins, and QB2s who can start in a pinch grow on trees in 1 QB leagues.

My issue with Cousins is that I just don't think he is a very good NFL QB. He's as likely to turn the ball over 3 times as he is throw 3 TDs right now. Maybe both.

I was lucky to have him to fill in for Burrow, but I disagree that I would rather have Stafford for that task. I think Burrow is going to be hobbled all year. Cousins has much higher weekly upside.

 

[dschuler]

Lamar would have easily passed that total

But he didn’t and never has. “Would haves” give you zero fantasy points.

0% chance Kirk Cousins gets benched for Jaren Hall. Now, there is a scenario, where the Vikings are like 1-6 or something like that, and somebody like Atlanta trades for Cousins. But he's not getting benched.

Not true. Not saying it will happen but definitely a non zero chance combined with a chance of getting moved. Good old QBs have been benched before.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

I don’t understand the Montgomery ranking at all.

when the dude making the ranking says that 20 carries and a td is a fair expectation week to week—and then proceeds to rank him as a middle tier RB2–that just doesn’t make much sense to me. If Montgomery is healthy and playing—you have to start him. I feel like every Montgomery owner feels that way. Sure—he’s bound to have a bad game here or there—but his stats, his usage, and the way his team is playing should put him as an RB1 until something changes imo.

With Montgomery its a dramatic difference in PPR and non-PPR leagues. I'm kinda splitting the difference.

With both Williams and Montgomery, I like the workloads, but I'm always a little nervous about high TD guys, who are under 4 YPC. If the workload gets even a little smaller they could both suffer a ton, and in Monty's case, he has the #12 pick behind him, though well behind him at the moment. If they can keep there workloads and TDs, then they are both too low. I have shares of both, and while I'm not necessarily looking to sell high, I do feel like they are both at their peak right now. Having said that, I could see either of them as high as 12 I guess. I strongly considered Taylor in tier 2, and having Jones down to Pacheco as tier 3. So I have no problem with someone feeling like, right now anyway, Monty is a low-end RB1.

I appreciate your lists as they clearly require a lot of work and thought—so I do want to make sure that I don’t come across as being unappreciative and disrespectful towards your work. Nothing but love for these and your efforts. With that said—I am curious about your nervousness about ranking Montgomery and Williams higher—but have no problem ranking Jonathan Taylor as an RB1 rest of the season.

The last time Jonathan Taylor played was in 2022—when he played 11 games. He had 4 total tds in 11 games—and also had 3 fumbles. In PPR leagues—in regards to his average points per game—he finished the season at RB18 averaging 13.3 fantasy points per game. In standard leagues—he finished the season as RB17 in regards to average fantasy points per game at 10.8. The last season Jonathan Taylor played—he was a middle of the pack RB2 based on average fantasy points per game.

In 2022–the Colts didn’t have a dynamic running qb that is capable of vulturing touchdowns from fantasy running backs on a consistent basis. The Colts did have Zach Moss back then—but he clearly is currently looking like a back that is deserving of some snaps even with Taylor returning. Also— Jonathan Taylor just had his first full practice in months just yesterday. We also know that he‘s unhappy with the Colts and does not want to risk potential future earnings by suffering any moderate to major injury. I don’t see him playing through any sort of injury given his circumstances. What information/data do you have that would make you feel comfortable ranking Jonathan Taylor as an RB1 the rest of the way? He wasn’t averaging RB1 numbers the last season he played when he was healthy, he hasn’t practiced until yesterday, is completely unhappy with his contract and his team, and is playing on a team that now has a running qb and another running back that has shown that he can capably produce.

I am genuinely curious. Keep in mind that I’m not bringing this up to pick on you—nor am I bringing it up to imply that Jonathan Taylor can’t or won’t be a fantasy beast this season. He certainly can—but my point is that—anybody that claims or projects that he’s an RB1 moving forward is doing so solely out of gut instinct. Nobody knows if he’s in game shape, nobody knows what kind of workload he’ll get in the new environment, nobody knows if he’s willing to play through injuries this season—but yet— somehow they feel comfortable ranking him high

 

[taylormeetstheismann]

My issue with Cousins is that I just don't think he is a very good NFL QB.

His career record is 73-66-2. That’s pretty decent. I don’t have the data but I don’t recall him surrounded by the talent that other quarterbacks have had on offense.

 

[BassNBrew]

but wildly inconsistent week to week.

I’m having a hard time wrapping my head around the idea that a player can be very consistent season to season yet not from game to game.

Can you provide some examples of players that have been models of consistency from game to game over a long period of time?

McCaffrey
Pitts

 

[jvdesigns2002]

My issue with Cousins is that I just don't think he is a very good NFL QB.

His career record is 73-66-2. That’s pretty decent. I don’t have the data but I don’t recall him surrounded by the talent that other quarterbacks have had on offense.

Cousins is certainly decent—but he has had some talent surrounding him. Justin Jefferson the past couple of seasons. He also had Dalvin Cook in his prime, Adam Theilen in his prime and let’s not forget about Stefon Diggs.

 

[jobarules]

Kirk cousins has one bad game- "i know I should've moved him down rankings"

Justin fields has one good game, Joe burrow and Trevor Lawrence has zero good games. Every qb has a bad game. Allen had one week 1. Mahomes had one last week. Both vs jets.

Its more than that with Cousins. I had a lot of trepidation about moving him above low-end QB1 in the first place. He's historically one of those guys who is very consistent year to year, but wildly inconsistent week to week.

I think all of those QBs offer more upside then Cousins, though it might take a few weeks in Burrow's case. That said, I'd rather start someone like Stafford until Burrow is healthy, then just rely on Cousins, and QB2s who can start in a pinch grow on trees in 1 QB leagues.

My issue with Cousins is that I just don't think he is a very good NFL QB. He's as likely to turn the ball over 3 times as he is throw 3 TDs right now. Maybe both.

I was lucky to have him to fill in for Burrow, but I disagree that I would rather have Stafford for that task. I think Burrow is going to be hobbled all year. Cousins has much higher weekly upside.

Hes not a HOFer but he is a good NFL QB. Many teams would be happy to have him.