I don't have a dog in this fight, but I love buy low opportunities and am considering acquiring him.
There's two "sides" in this debate - either you think he sucks, or you think he had bad luck last year. Truth be told, it's probably somewhere in between. The naysayers have already flocked to the thread, as usual, so here are a few things to think about:
1) Richardson was viewed as an average to below average pass blocker in Cleveland, and generally came off the field for Ogbayonna. In Indy, he had to learn all new pass protection schemes, which took time.
2) Richardson played five games leading up to the Colts' bye: @49ers, @Jaguars, vs Seahawks, @Chargers, vs Broncos. That's four of the top six run defenses in the NFL last year, and a road game against Jacksonville. He went 75/228/2. After that, he didn't get double digit carries again until week 15.
3) The last game before the bye - the home win against Denver - was the game where Reggie Wayne went down for the season. That meant that in the second half of the season, the receivers were T.Y. Hilton, Griff Whalen, Coby Fleener, Lavonn Brazill. Until Richardson improved his pass blocking, it was easy for defenses to handle Richardson when he came in the game - cover Hilton and attack.
4) As you can imagine, he was getting hit a lot behind the line of scrimmage. But teams teeing off on the run when he was in helped him as a receiver. Before the bye week, he had two catches on 7 targets. After the bye week, he had 26 receptions for 246 yards and a TD on 34 targets. That's a receiving pace similar to his 51/367/1 in 2012, but with better yards per reception.
5) By the end of the season, reports were that Richardson's pass blocking had improved, but he only got 8 carries in week 17, one in the first round of the playoffs, and three in the second round. He was not targeted for a single pass in those games. Both Richardson and Pagano have stated that it's a priority to get him more in tune with the play calling this offseason, and just like a rookie back, his pass blocking will be a big part of deciding how much time he gets on the field.
6) The obvious comparable for Richardson's midseason trade is Marshawn Lynch. After early success, Lynch was demoted from the starting lineup in favor of Fred Jackson, who had a surprising 1000 yard season at 28 years of age. The following year, he was traded midseason to Seattle. Lynch - a punishing power runner who isn't the brightest bulb on the tree - saw his yards per carry drop to 3.5 for the rest of the 2010 season. But in 2011, Lynch bounced back in a huge way, putting up 1200 yards and 12 TDs at a 4.2 YPC clip. Richardson may or may not have the talent that Lynch has, but the precedent exists for a guy to bounce back in his first full season with a team after getting traded midseason.
7) Of course, the midseason trade argument is overplayed. I mean, how long does the guy need? Lots of guys miss the preseason and play a lot better than Richardson did. But remember, Richardson was 22, a second year player who believed his own hype, and has been described as "dumb as a box of hair". Then he got a big serving of humble pie against a ridiculous stretch of good defenses, and ended up losing the starting job to a more experienced player. The fact that the team is talking about him as their starter - and that they let Brown walk and didn't replace him - suggests that he'll be given a lot more first team reps and guidance during the offseason than the Colts were able to give him while preparing for games during a playoff season.
8) His 3.0 YPC last year undoubtedly sucked. And his 3.6 YPC in Cleveland wasn't much better. But remember that he was hurt for much of that rookie campaign, and played through injury. He had some bad games - including an 8 rush, 8 yard performance against the Colts that makes you wonder what they were thinking when they traded for him - but he also had games of 19/109/1, 24/122/1, 17/81/1, 25/105, 29/85/1, and 9/53, plus good receiving totals. Seven of his first 15 games were for over 100 total yards, and the eighth was for 95 total yards. That's not bad for a rookie. His season totals weren't great, but the Browns were an underdog in almost every single game they played. He did OK for an injured rookie, all things considered.
Put that together, and what do you get? I don't know. And neither do you. It's impossible to know whether Richardson's going to be good this year or not, because the truth of the matter is, he hasn't been that great so far since coming to the NFL. He's a talented prospect with a great opportunity but effectively a one year prove-it contract on a team that demoted him last year, then dumped its surprisingly successful veteran runner and drafted no young competition, leaving him competing with an aging vet and a guy who's looked ok in spot duty.
To me, that sounds a hell of a lot like McFadden. Both of those guys are interesting fliers to me this year. I won't pay a starter price for either of them but if I can get them cheap - truly cheap - I will. If I can't, I won't lose sleep over it. In dynasty, Richardson is more valuable to me because he's on a better team, has a little less competition, and he's less injury prone and a lot younger. If you've got the ammunition to pick him up cheap and swing for the fences, I think it's a good gamble, even though there's a real chance it doesn't pan out.
Hope that's a "Seahawks score 1/2 points" setup...
