Yeah, BRONG posted this before the race even started though. He was pretty much third for the first 2/3 of the race and then left everyone in the dust, not sure what isn't to like about this $8k horse.He wasn't pushed on the front end this race. I'd hold off on the triple crown talk.
Yeah. At Belmont it could be a different ending.commanding curve was coming strong.
he won on easy fractions, ill tip my cap for now. Could have been a different race if some of the speed tried to challenge him,Yeah, BRONG posted this before the race even started though. He was pretty much third for the first 2/3 of the race and then left everyone in the dust, not sure what isn't to like about this $8k horse.He wasn't pushed on the front end this race. I'd hold off on the triple crown talk.
I completely agree with this. And I'm not a California Chrome hater at all. He's been dominant. Yesterday was a very weird race in that it was one of the slowest times on a fast track in decades. I think this is a monster up to 1 1/8, can win at 1 1/4 but the last eighth even though he had it in hand he didn't finish like a horse who would love 1 1/4. That extra eighth is huge. That's why winning the TC is so tough. He will be going against fresh horses after having to run his 3rd race in 7 weeks. With Untapable not expected to go in the Preakness CC should win at around 4/5 or so. He'll be 1-5 in the Belmont and a huge bet against. Don't know who the horse will be. He'll look long gone (similar to Real Quiet) at the top of the lane then will be life and death to hold on.Still pissed I didn't bet that $288 play. $3,400 for $20 exacta, $1,712 for the $1 tri, $7,691 for the super. $12,803. Idiot. And what's even worse was that I really liked Samarat to grind, but didn't like him in the tri. Pick 5 paid $149K.Perfect trip today...no trouble and slow pace
Preakness suits his style...not sure he wants 12f in Belmont though
He was the chalk favorite. Question was who had commanding curve in the exacta.Yeah, BRONG posted this before the race even started though. He was pretty much third for the first 2/3 of the race and then left everyone in the dust, not sure what isn't to like about this $8k horse.He wasn't pushed on the front end this race. I'd hold off on the triple crown talk.
Marshall Plan-esqueI agree with Judge Judy and all the money he should've won.
When you pick the the chalk favorite to win the Super Bowl and they win, I'll give you credit too. I just probably won't tail you.He was the chalk favorite. Question was who had commanding curve in the exacta.Yeah, BRONG posted this before the race even started though. He was pretty much third for the first 2/3 of the race and then left everyone in the dust, not sure what isn't to like about this $8k horse.He wasn't pushed on the front end this race. I'd hold off on the triple crown talk.
Good bet compared to what the track odds might pay. +250 x ? x ? will not add up to +1125 imo.
Got him at +1125 to win the TC
newest offshore odds:Early odds im seeing has Cali Chrome at 6-5 to win Preakness.
If CC wins he'll run in the Belmont as long as he is healthy, this owner group seems all in to me.So lame that the preakness drops down to 10 horses, that the interest drops 80% from the Kentucky Derby to the second leg, and that if Cali Chrome wins that there is a good chance he'll pull a "i'll have another" and just pull out of the belmont because he's already generated insane stud fees.
I want to like horse racing more, but it's just full of so many problems.
I get that feeling too, I think CC will run if he wins the Preakness. I don't think he will win in NY though if he does run. Horse Racing needs a triple crown winner though.If CC wins he'll run in the Belmont as long as he is healthy, this owner group seems all in to me.So lame that the preakness drops down to 10 horses, that the interest drops 80% from the Kentucky Derby to the second leg, and that if Cali Chrome wins that there is a good chance he'll pull a "i'll have another" and just pull out of the belmont because he's already generated insane stud fees.
I want to like horse racing more, but it's just full of so many problems.
right but health seems like such an ambiguous term with horse racing.If CC wins he'll run in the Belmont as long as he is healthy, this owner group seems all in to me.So lame that the preakness drops down to 10 horses, that the interest drops 80% from the Kentucky Derby to the second leg, and that if Cali Chrome wins that there is a good chance he'll pull a "i'll have another" and just pull out of the belmont because he's already generated insane stud fees.
I want to like horse racing more, but it's just full of so many problems.
it needs it badly... and then to change the rules and give the horse a chance to defend titles... to gives the public more name recognition from year in to year out.I get that feeling too, I think CC will run if he wins the Preakness. I don't think he will win in NY though if he does run. Horse Racing needs a triple crown winner though.If CC wins he'll run in the Belmont as long as he is healthy, this owner group seems all in to me.So lame that the preakness drops down to 10 horses, that the interest drops 80% from the Kentucky Derby to the second leg, and that if Cali Chrome wins that there is a good chance he'll pull a "i'll have another" and just pull out of the belmont because he's already generated insane stud fees.
I want to like horse racing more, but it's just full of so many problems.
That would be an interesting idea. Let CC come back as a 4-year old to defend the title against the 3 year old field.it needs it badly... and then to change the rules and give the horse a chance to defend titles... to gives the public more name recognition from year in to year out.I get that feeling too, I think CC will run if he wins the Preakness. I don't think he will win in NY though if he does run. Horse Racing needs a triple crown winner though.If CC wins he'll run in the Belmont as long as he is healthy, this owner group seems all in to me.So lame that the preakness drops down to 10 horses, that the interest drops 80% from the Kentucky Derby to the second leg, and that if Cali Chrome wins that there is a good chance he'll pull a "i'll have another" and just pull out of the belmont because he's already generated insane stud fees.
I want to like horse racing more, but it's just full of so many problems.
To see greatness.. like LeBron winning an NBA title... and then not getting the chance to see him defend it.... that's lame.
Steve Coburn is no stranger to horses, having spent a good portion of his life working as a modern-day cowboy.
His wife Carolyn, even before they met in 1992, had an interest in horses as well, only as a bettor. Now Steve and Carolyn, who both spent a good portion of their lives in Kern County, are being taken on the ride of their lives by their three-year-old colt we all now know as California Chrome.
are 4 y.o.'s better than 3 y.o.'s? would it not be close?That would be an interesting idea. Let CC come back as a 4-year old to defend the title against the 3 year old field.it needs it badly... and then to change the rules and give the horse a chance to defend titles... to gives the public more name recognition from year in to year out.I get that feeling too, I think CC will run if he wins the Preakness. I don't think he will win in NY though if he does run. Horse Racing needs a triple crown winner though.If CC wins he'll run in the Belmont as long as he is healthy, this owner group seems all in to me.So lame that the preakness drops down to 10 horses, that the interest drops 80% from the Kentucky Derby to the second leg, and that if Cali Chrome wins that there is a good chance he'll pull a "i'll have another" and just pull out of the belmont because he's already generated insane stud fees.
I want to like horse racing more, but it's just full of so many problems.
To see greatness.. like LeBron winning an NBA title... and then not getting the chance to see him defend it.... that's lame.
Tradition says this won't happen, but a match race of a triple crown winner & a leading older horse (maybe a previous Derby winner) is always possible.That would be an interesting idea. Let CC come back as a 4-year old to defend the title against the 3 year old field.it needs it badly... and then to change the rules and give the horse a chance to defend titles... to gives the public more name recognition from year in to year out.I get that feeling too, I think CC will run if he wins the Preakness. I don't think he will win in NY though if he does run. Horse Racing needs a triple crown winner though.If CC wins he'll run in the Belmont as long as he is healthy, this owner group seems all in to me.So lame that the preakness drops down to 10 horses, that the interest drops 80% from the Kentucky Derby to the second leg, and that if Cali Chrome wins that there is a good chance he'll pull a "i'll have another" and just pull out of the belmont because he's already generated insane stud fees.
I want to like horse racing more, but it's just full of so many problems.
To see greatness.. like LeBron winning an NBA title... and then not getting the chance to see him defend it.... that's lame.
I believe most horses peak around 4 or 5 then slow down.are 4 y.o.'s better than 3 y.o.'s? would it not be close?That would be an interesting idea. Let CC come back as a 4-year old to defend the title against the 3 year old field.it needs it badly... and then to change the rules and give the horse a chance to defend titles... to gives the public more name recognition from year in to year out.I get that feeling too, I think CC will run if he wins the Preakness. I don't think he will win in NY though if he does run. Horse Racing needs a triple crown winner though.If CC wins he'll run in the Belmont as long as he is healthy, this owner group seems all in to me.So lame that the preakness drops down to 10 horses, that the interest drops 80% from the Kentucky Derby to the second leg, and that if Cali Chrome wins that there is a good chance he'll pull a "i'll have another" and just pull out of the belmont because he's already generated insane stud fees.
I want to like horse racing more, but it's just full of so many problems.
To see greatness.. like LeBron winning an NBA title... and then not getting the chance to see him defend it.... that's lame.
are there horses in the big breeders cup races that would just blow away the derby field of 3 y.o.'s?
are 5-6-10 year old horses even better?
ok, then is it only tradition that is keeping me from seeing the best of the best at the kentucky derby?I believe most horses peak around 4 or 5 then slow down.are 4 y.o.'s better than 3 y.o.'s? would it not be close?That would be an interesting idea. Let CC come back as a 4-year old to defend the title against the 3 year old field.it needs it badly... and then to change the rules and give the horse a chance to defend titles... to gives the public more name recognition from year in to year out.I get that feeling too, I think CC will run if he wins the Preakness. I don't think he will win in NY though if he does run. Horse Racing needs a triple crown winner though.If CC wins he'll run in the Belmont as long as he is healthy, this owner group seems all in to me.So lame that the preakness drops down to 10 horses, that the interest drops 80% from the Kentucky Derby to the second leg, and that if Cali Chrome wins that there is a good chance he'll pull a "i'll have another" and just pull out of the belmont because he's already generated insane stud fees.
I want to like horse racing more, but it's just full of so many problems.
To see greatness.. like LeBron winning an NBA title... and then not getting the chance to see him defend it.... that's lame.
are there horses in the big breeders cup races that would just blow away the derby field of 3 y.o.'s?
are 5-6-10 year old horses even better?
Depends on the horse obviously, but most horses will start to decline around 5. A returning champion 4 y.o. would have a slight advantage over newbie 3 y.o.'s. Most of the derby horses have never seen Churchill downs and that atmosphere the derby brings. Plus It is the Kentucky derby, it is tradition to race 3 y.o.'s in the race.I believe most horses peak around 4 or 5 then slow down.are 4 y.o.'s better than 3 y.o.'s? would it not be close?That would be an interesting idea. Let CC come back as a 4-year old to defend the title against the 3 year old field.it needs it badly... and then to change the rules and give the horse a chance to defend titles... to gives the public more name recognition from year in to year out.I get that feeling too, I think CC will run if he wins the Preakness. I don't think he will win in NY though if he does run. Horse Racing needs a triple crown winner though.If CC wins he'll run in the Belmont as long as he is healthy, this owner group seems all in to me.So lame that the preakness drops down to 10 horses, that the interest drops 80% from the Kentucky Derby to the second leg, and that if Cali Chrome wins that there is a good chance he'll pull a "i'll have another" and just pull out of the belmont because he's already generated insane stud fees.
I want to like horse racing more, but it's just full of so many problems.
To see greatness.. like LeBron winning an NBA title... and then not getting the chance to see him defend it.... that's lame.
are there horses in the big breeders cup races that would just blow away the derby field of 3 y.o.'s?
are 5-6-10 year old horses even better?
The Breeder's Cup has some of that, but it's not as popular as the triple crown races.ok, then is it only tradition that is keeping me from seeing the best of the best at the kentucky derby?
Why am I not able to see the absolute fastest horses regardless of age at the biggest races of the year?
If there is only a 2-3 year window where horses are elite, then it could be like college sports where you hear the same name for 2-3 seasons and then they fade away... but that's still more interesting than one-offs... this is something keeping the races from getting bigger.
If a horse could become a household name.. or we could have an attempt at 3-peat of Kentucky derbies in a row i feel like there would be more interest
It's almost like if the NCAA football NC was bigger than the Super Bowl. It's public opinion driving it, Breeders Cup day actually features higher purse races but not as many casual fans are into it like the Derby or Triple Crown bids.The Breeder's Cup has some of that, but it's not as popular as the triple crown races.ok, then is it only tradition that is keeping me from seeing the best of the best at the kentucky derby?
Why am I not able to see the absolute fastest horses regardless of age at the biggest races of the year?
If there is only a 2-3 year window where horses are elite, then it could be like college sports where you hear the same name for 2-3 seasons and then they fade away... but that's still more interesting than one-offs... this is something keeping the races from getting bigger.
If a horse could become a household name.. or we could have an attempt at 3-peat of Kentucky derbies in a row i feel like there would be more interest
The mindset of current day trainers is so much different than in the past. Look at horses prepping for the Breeder's Cup. To get a horse to peak on a big day, you now want 4-5 weeks from a previous race. And those are usually older horses who have gone the distance they are running.In the Triple Crown, you are taking 3 year olds who are going 1 1/4, 1 3/16 and 1 1/2 miles, 3 grueling races that they also have to ship to, in 5 weeks. So fewer and fewer horses running in the Derby come back in 2 weeks to run the Preakness. The ONLY reason to run in all 3 is if you have a shot to win the Triple Crown or are a REAL contender (think Alydar/Affirmed, Sunday Silence/Easy Goer) to win any of the 3. Other than that, it's vanity. The triple crown trail drains horses. Some never recover. If the Preakness were 4 weeks from the Derby, I guarantee Danza would run. 2 week turnaround is just 2 short for horses to run peak performances.right but health seems like such an ambiguous term with horse racing.If CC wins he'll run in the Belmont as long as he is healthy, this owner group seems all in to me.So lame that the preakness drops down to 10 horses, that the interest drops 80% from the Kentucky Derby to the second leg, and that if Cali Chrome wins that there is a good chance he'll pull a "i'll have another" and just pull out of the belmont because he's already generated insane stud fees.
I want to like horse racing more, but it's just full of so many problems.
not to mention if he doesn't win this does that mean he'll pass on the Belmont? Because that makes that race even MORE lame.
It would be the tennis equivalent of winning the french open, and just because you don't win Wimbledon, now you don't compete at the US Open... horrible
The Derby is 3 year olds, period, that's not gonna change nor does anyone want it to change.ok, then is it only tradition that is keeping me from seeing the best of the best at the kentucky derby?
Why am I not able to see the absolute fastest horses regardless of age at the biggest races of the year?
I don't have a local track unfortunately.. I used to. Not anymore.Look, you CAN make money here. Few things:
1) Dentist - 10 horses is A LOT for a horse race. It's not 'lame'. Spend a day at your local track and tell me how many of those races featured 10 or more horses. The Kentucky Derby is an anomaly in horse racing. It's also very risky for the horses and the jockeys. Owners and trainers don't want their high priced investments at risk, but the Derby is the Derby.
The year Big Brown won the Preakness a long shot came in 2nd. Macho Again was 40-1. That is why the Exacta and Trifecta hit was bigger than it should have been. If you get CC and a horse like Social Inclusion at anywhere from 6-1 to 10-1 to come in 2nd. Your exacta isn't exactly a payday. Exacta's are hard enough to hit, let alone a trifecta. I'm going to bet on the race, but I won't be putting as much coin on it as I will other races during the day.Look, you CAN make money here. Few things:
1) Dentist - 10 horses is A LOT for a horse race. It's not 'lame'. Spend a day at your local track and tell me how many of those races featured 10 or more horses. The Kentucky Derby is an anomaly in horse racing. It's also very risky for the horses and the jockeys. Owners and trainers don't want their high priced investments at risk, but the Derby is the Derby.
2) As JTC said, the Breeder's Cup Classic pits the best horses in the world against each other, regardless of their age/gender. Check out video from 2009's Breeders Cup. Goose bumps.
3) Those saying a heavy favorite running and winning the Preakness destroys all value need to look back in history. Big Brown was a HUGE favorite to win the Preakness in 2008 - his 1-5 line at the start of the race makes 6-5 look like the Lotto by comparison. And no, you made no money betting him, but if you had the right place horse, you won $36.60 in the exacta and the tri that year paid you $336. That's a great payday. Again, some of you should spend a full day at your local track and report back. $336 on a tri is a great return. The super in 2008 paid over a grand. You can make money with a heavy favorite running and winning.
I think we're looking at a TC horse here too, and wrote about it on my Derby write up. I just don't see any challengers to Chrome. There is no Alydar. There is no Empire Maker. My bet is Chrome's odds drop to below par by the time the race goes off.
Now, the challenge of course is to identify the best of the rest.
I think it does just fine, buddy.I don't have a local track unfortunately.. I used to. Not anymore.Look, you CAN make money here. Few things:
1) Dentist - 10 horses is A LOT for a horse race. It's not 'lame'. Spend a day at your local track and tell me how many of those races featured 10 or more horses. The Kentucky Derby is an anomaly in horse racing. It's also very risky for the horses and the jockeys. Owners and trainers don't want their high priced investments at risk, but the Derby is the Derby.
Sounds like the Kentucky derby allows too many horses.
this could all be corrected if it wasn't the only horse race that average guy thinks about. They can fix this through better marketing and by instituting some of my ideas.
Sure, they're hard to hit, but that doesn't stop me from trying. That's where the money will be made. Look back at the 2003 and 2004 Preakness for more examples of a heavy favorite running/winning with decent payouts for exotics. You can take CC and do a partial wheel without breaking your bank.The year Big Brown won the Preakness a long shot came in 2nd. Macho Again was 40-1. That is why the Exacta and Trifecta hit was bigger than it should have been. If you get CC and a horse like Social Inclusion at anywhere from 6-1 to 10-1 to come in 2nd. Your exacta isn't exactly a payday. Exacta's are hard enough to hit, let alone a trifecta. I'm going to bet on the race, but I won't be putting as much coin on it as I will other races during the day.Look, you CAN make money here. Few things:
1) Dentist - 10 horses is A LOT for a horse race. It's not 'lame'. Spend a day at your local track and tell me how many of those races featured 10 or more horses. The Kentucky Derby is an anomaly in horse racing. It's also very risky for the horses and the jockeys. Owners and trainers don't want their high priced investments at risk, but the Derby is the Derby.
2) As JTC said, the Breeder's Cup Classic pits the best horses in the world against each other, regardless of their age/gender. Check out video from 2009's Breeders Cup. Goose bumps.
3) Those saying a heavy favorite running and winning the Preakness destroys all value need to look back in history. Big Brown was a HUGE favorite to win the Preakness in 2008 - his 1-5 line at the start of the race makes 6-5 look like the Lotto by comparison. And no, you made no money betting him, but if you had the right place horse, you won $36.60 in the exacta and the tri that year paid you $336. That's a great payday. Again, some of you should spend a full day at your local track and report back. $336 on a tri is a great return. The super in 2008 paid over a grand. You can make money with a heavy favorite running and winning.
I think we're looking at a TC horse here too, and wrote about it on my Derby write up. I just don't see any challengers to Chrome. There is no Alydar. There is no Empire Maker. My bet is Chrome's odds drop to below par by the time the race goes off.
Now, the challenge of course is to identify the best of the rest.
maybe... i want horse racing to have mass appeal because i think it is pretty cool... and it doesn't.I think it does just fine, buddy.I don't have a local track unfortunately.. I used to. Not anymore.Look, you CAN make money here. Few things:
1) Dentist - 10 horses is A LOT for a horse race. It's not 'lame'. Spend a day at your local track and tell me how many of those races featured 10 or more horses. The Kentucky Derby is an anomaly in horse racing. It's also very risky for the horses and the jockeys. Owners and trainers don't want their high priced investments at risk, but the Derby is the Derby.
Sounds like the Kentucky derby allows too many horses.
this could all be corrected if it wasn't the only horse race that average guy thinks about. They can fix this through better marketing and by instituting some of my ideas.
The problems are vast......Dentist said:maybe... i want horse racing to have mass appeal because i think it is pretty cool... and it doesn't.General Malaise said:I think it does just fine, buddy.Dentist said:I don't have a local track unfortunately.. I used to. Not anymore.General Malaise said:Look, you CAN make money here. Few things:
1) Dentist - 10 horses is A LOT for a horse race. It's not 'lame'. Spend a day at your local track and tell me how many of those races featured 10 or more horses. The Kentucky Derby is an anomaly in horse racing. It's also very risky for the horses and the jockeys. Owners and trainers don't want their high priced investments at risk, but the Derby is the Derby.
Sounds like the Kentucky derby allows too many horses.
this could all be corrected if it wasn't the only horse race that average guy thinks about. They can fix this through better marketing and by instituting some of my ideas.
I'm a slightly above average fan and just sharing some of the things I wish I could see in racing.
It would be interesting to poll the average person and see what it would take for them to be a fan.. maybe the answer is nothing would work.. it's just a niche sport no matter how you slice it.
But with almost every sport I watch I just see things and like to analyze ways the sport could be better, more interesting, more popular.. more fair and balanced.. less luck based..
Horse racing is a sport that seems ripe for an opportunity to modernize itself and be more widely appreciated. Tennis could use some changes as well... Baseball needs to be faster.. football needs to be faster.. soccer needs more goals via a larger goal (and thus less ties).
So I'm interested to see what true horse guys like you think would help popularize things beyond just "kentucky derby" (which after reading your analysis seems like a poorly designed race anyway... and i agrree)
Yeah, it's not just "tradition"...the Triple Crown races are for 3 y.o. LIke the Oaks is for fillies.Jefferson the Caregiver said:The Derby is 3 year olds, period, that's not gonna change nor does anyone want it to change.Dentist said:ok, then is it only tradition that is keeping me from seeing the best of the best at the kentucky derby?
Why am I not able to see the absolute fastest horses regardless of age at the biggest races of the year?
There is a horse race for your needs, it's called the Breeder's Cup Classic