HellToupee
Footballguy
Hunter02
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TRUMP TO INFINITY AND BEYOND HQ - The Great and Positive Place (6 Viewers)
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jerseydevil20
Footballguy
After a 7 point swing I would agree with you.Nobody is expecting Biden to win Iowa.
fred_1_15301
Footballguy
I've been monitoring a betting site (because I'm sick) and Iowa has been firmly in Trump's territory for quite some time.
Summer Wheat
Footballguy
Posts like this are a huge part of the problem here. Not a good look at all..come on man be better or this board is probably not for you.Snorkelson said:
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Mr Anonymous
Footballguy
Sounds a lot like Twitter's excuse when they're caught in hypocrisy.Joe Bryant said:
How about stopping censorship altogether then no need to apologize?
Juxtatarot
Footballguy
The magnitude of Trump’s advantage and quality of the pollster is what makes that poll notable. States aren’t independent of each other. If Trump were to win Iowa by 7, it would make me question Biden’s polling leads in other battleground states.I've been monitoring a betting site (because I'm sick) and Iowa has been firmly in Trump's territory for quite some time.
I suspect it’s an outlier. Their earlier poll in late September showed a tie in IA. Is there reason to believe the race has changed so much in the last month? We’re not seeing such dramatic movement in other polls. Regardless, though, it’s a point of hope for Trump supporters who believe in polling.
Juxtatarot
Footballguy
It seems like an obvious article to write because it’s true. Trump could win. Anyone who states otherwise doesn’t understand polling and statistics.
Max Power
Footballguy
I agree. I just find it interesting that outlets are NOW willing to address the polling factors and Biden campaign errors that some of the right leaning outlets have been pointing out for weeks.
Issues that plenty on these boards have dismissed as "talking points".
Juxtatarot
Footballguy
I haven’t seen this too much personally but I’ve been more interested in the data/stats guys than the partisan talking heads. The stats guys have talked about it a lot. Nate Silver quipped about how he spends 90% of his time thinking about something that will happen 10% of the time.
Max Power
Footballguy
So what is your opinion on statistics? It feels like no matter the side the statistics can be skewed to show favorable to either candidate.
There have been a couple studies now that show trump voters are less likely to answer polls accurately due to fears of being judged or outed. Some here think that is ridiculous, but now we're seeing reporting that polls could be wrong and this is likely a reason why.
Juxtatarot
Footballguy
Factors like that can play a role in why Trump can win despite the polls usually giving Biden such big leads. If Trump wins, it will be interesting to read the post-mortems from the pollsters. The pollsters do make adjustments to their numbers to reflect what they believe are proper samples of voters. That includes the "shy" Trump voter concept.
Nope. Me being honest.
And we'll definitely continue to moderate if we have a forum.
Chaz McNulty
Footballguy
I think for the most part polls have been fairly accurate. They get it wrong sometimes and then try to use historicals to figure out how they got it wrong and adjust for next time. But for the most part they are correct.
I believe that the pollsters are so worried about what happened in 2016 that they are over adjusting. I'm one of the few on these boards that think Biden will beat his polls numbers and that this election will not be close. I just see everything pointing to Trump getting smoked. Polls, early voting, massive voting numbers, 2018 midterms. All of these things are favoring the Democrats. To me this is a case of Occam's razor.
I have a couple $100 bets with some friends who are positive Trump is going to win. One of my friend even offered me 3-1 odds (I did not take the odds), but he gets all his news from Conservative channels.
I know anything can happen, but I am generally driven by logic.
Widbil83
Footballguy
I'm with you. The record number of voters coming out are not split 50-50. Logic would point to a blue landslide. Trump will have succeeded in uniting this country (against him). Too many folks are tired of the hate and division he's caused.
Chaz McNulty
Footballguy
I think that Trump incorrectly believes that great rally's won him the 2016 election. The rally's may have helped a little, but the big factor in 2016 were the undecided voters breaking towards Trump, and the Dems staying home (a large part because of peoples feelings about Hillary). He captured a huge percentage of these voters and most of them did not go to Trump rally's.
Biden is up a lot more than Hillary was at this point in the election, the number of undecided voters is substantially less, and the polls are showing that this small group is breaking evenly between the candidates.
I just don't get how people can be positive about a Trump win. I could understand being hopeful but recognizing that its an uphill battle, but there are so many that think without a doubt that Trump will win.
Some of the attendees at MAGA rallies are repeats, such as this guy and his family who were the first in line at OpaLocka airport in north Miami-Dade (of Amelia Earhart fame). It's his 7th MAGA rally this summer and he's super-excited to see the president yet again. He showed up 14 hours early. The rally is supposed to start at 11:30pm tonight, which means it would likely be in violation of the county midnight curfew. And as usual, attendees are waiving all their legal rights to sue over COVID-19 exposure.
Max Power
Footballguy
I just don't trust the pollsters right now. I think the social bias against Trump support can not be accurately measured. Everyone is giving themselves an out in case they are wrong and I think it speaks to that.
And the Biden thread was only up for 2 weeks? That's remarkable. What is the point of political discussion without dissenting opinion?
Max Power
Footballguy
dkp993
Footballguy
That’s all valid, 2016 exposed some flaws in the system. One question though, may pollsters have claimed to have made adjustments based on what the learned in ‘16. If the polls in general are correct this year will you trust them again?
*I ask you and others this because it’s the question I’m asking myself.
Juxtatarot
Footballguy
Yeah, I get it. One other point to make. I strongly believe that the reputable pollsters are trying to get it as right as they can. They might be making big mistakes but I don't think it's due to bias.
Mr Anonymous
Footballguy
It's never a bad thing to be honest, that's to be applauded. As to your second sentence, moderation is not a synonym of censorship. No one is calling for you to stop moderating your forums. Consistency is all anyone asks for. Hopefully it's better going forward.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
So you guys are advocating for all these websites to 100% let anything go and let anybody say what they want? Seems like a weird stance if so.
If not, and you are saying there should be some sort of line, what do you think it should be? As an owner, Joe shouldn't be able to decide what that line is?
Mr Anonymous
Footballguy
So odd that asking for equal treatment and consistency gets immediately bastardized into a call for a free for all by the side benefitting from the unequal moderation. Actually it's not odd at all, it's par for the course.
Max Power
Footballguy
I'll give them more credit. But consider 2018 if you think they fixed all their polling issues then. DeSantis was what a 4-5 pt underdog in the polls and pulled it off? When you dive into those polls, they made the exact same mistakes.
If the polls are wrong again, are you still going to give them credit they know what they are doing?
dkp993
Footballguy
Not sure if you missed my last sentence or not but I’m not giving them any credit right now. Don’t trust the polls at the moment, hence why I’m asking myself (and others like you) if I can again.
Trying to be consistent is the thing we work hardest on. And the single biggest truth of this forum is that everyone thinks THEIR side is unfairly treated while the OTHER side gets away with everything. That's life. Same as Day 1.
I don't expect the consistency to change from where it's been. But we'll keep trying. As we have forever.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
dkp993
Footballguy
Max Power
Footballguy
Gotcha. I think traditional polling is dead. The methods used historically don't seem to be the best models in today's society.
I think they have to work on how they phrase questions and who they talk to vs random yes or nos over the phone.
Evolve or die right?
dkp993
Footballguy
Agreed no doubt.
It’s going to be one of the many interesting narratives or outcomes of this election. Nate from 538 speaks to changes made because of lessons learned. We’ll see if that the case or another round of “lessons” will be served.
Chaz McNulty
Footballguy
I would be interested to see how correct the polls were in 2018. Plus/Minus 3% of the time with a 95% confidence. This would mean that in 20 races, the polls would be correct if the final results were within 3% in 19 of the 20 races.
Max Power
Footballguy
Do you think Biden is going to win Florida? The numbers I've heard don't look good for that.
Chaz McNulty
Footballguy
That one falls within the 3% and has actually gone back and forth. I would say Biden is a very small favorite in Florida. I wouldn't bet money on that one, but if someone forced me to make a decision I would just go with the odds.
dkp993
Footballguy
From what I’ve seen early turnout, while strong and favoring Biden, isn’t favoring him as much as he’d need to carry the state. The odds “feel” very low for Biden imo. If (big IF) he does carry it though that’s bad news for Trump.
Is it true people get suspended for months for using certain emoji and disagreeing with each other and for saying Biden stutters? Ive seen way worse just the past couple days, in this thread alone against Trump. The posts that are over the top trolling seem to vanish, but the posters keep posting. I've never seen a forum quite like this one before.
And the single biggest truth of this forum is that everyone thinks THEIR side is unfairly treated while the OTHER side gets away with everything. That's life. Same as Day 1.
If you see something well over the line, please report it. Just make sure it's really over the line. TIA.
Chaz McNulty
Footballguy
people are forgetting that the polls can be correct and Trump can still win. If Trump squeeks out a couple races that are within the 3% error rate, and also wins 1 or 2 that are within the 95% sampling rate (like PA), then he wins the election and the polls are still correct.
These scenarios are not likely, but still within reason.
These scenarios are not likely, but still within reason.
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jm192
Footballguy
As a conservative, Twitter can do whatever it wants. Private company. You do you.
But section 230 is of tremendous value for them. And if they selectively edit/prohibit tweets based on politics, they’re clearly acting as a publisher—and not a platform.
And they really just can’t afford to be a publisher. People post all kinds of slander, threats, porn, etc.
Max Power
Footballguy
I don't know where to post this anymore.
https://twitter.com/RealJamesWoods/status/1322985448575131648?s=20
https://twitter.com/RealJamesWoods/status/1322985448575131648?s=20
jerseydevil20
Footballguy
How many voters have been influenced by these polls? Why would the pollsters change?
Summer Wheat
Footballguy
I found this place because of FF and the Shark Pool. Pretty sure that is how everyone found it. That was the draw, not people arguing and trolling about Biden, Trump abortions and basically hatin on each other. Maybe it is time to get back to your roots and the simple life again.
Juxtatarot
Footballguy
Juxtatarot
Footballguy
Wait a minute. Is it that cold in Tampa?
It's in the 80s pretty much all over the state here. That and the fact that there are bare trees in the background should give it away that it's not Tampa.
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