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What hyped offenses are we overrating? (1 Viewer)

Z

zftcg

Footballguy
This probably would have been a better pre-draft thread, but I was thinking the other day about how coming into last year, I was all-in on the Eagles and Dolphins, which didn't turn out so well. The Dolphins may have been more my own delusion, but there was a ton of hype around the Eagles. So it got me thinking, which are the teams where right now we're thinking, "I just want a piece of that offense", but will look back on at the end of the season and think, "I can't believe we expected these guys to be good." 

The main one that comes to mind is Tampa Bay. Don't get me wrong: I'm high on all of their weapons, and drafted Jameis as my only QB in my main money league. So I'm not predicting they'll crash and burn. But I also think they're no sure thing. You have a first-time HC, a mistake-prone QB who people are counting on to make the leap, and an RB1/WR1 who have been inconsistent in the past.

Any others?

 
Green Bay - I am not convinced that getting Nelson back fixes their issues.  In my mind they might be the third best offense in the division this year behind the Vikings and Lions.  I don't think they have an identity and they really aren't that good without McAdoo.  

 
I'm a bit worried about the AZ passing game. Palmer has looked like hot garbage all preseason, and he's old, and has always been a little turnover prone.

Might be why coaches have been talking up the David Johnson experience so much - regression from last year's passion game is expected, but it might be worst than the expected regression. 

 
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abbottjamesr said:
Green Bay - I am not convinced that getting Nelson back fixes their issues.  In my mind they might be the third best offense in the division this year behind the Vikings and Lions.  I don't think they have an identity and they really aren't that good without McAdoo.  
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You think McAdoo was the brains behind the Packer offense?

 
I would say Indianapolis.  I don't think the OL will keep Luck healthy for 16 games.  And last year even when Luck played, he wasn't that good.     And we all saw last year what happened to Moncrief when Luck went down.   Certainly possible that 2014 was a career year for Luck.

 
the Steelers. they really have no secondary receiver as of now.  Once LeVeon comes back , he will probably serve as that guy but the first three games could be lower scoring if teams try and neutralize AB.

 
Franknbeans said:
the Steelers. they really have no secondary receiver as of now.  Once LeVeon comes back , he will probably serve as that guy but the first three games could be lower scoring if teams try and neutralize AB.
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Teams have been selling out to slow down AB for 3 years

 
abbottjamesr said:
Green Bay - I am not convinced that getting Nelson back fixes their issues.  In my mind they might be the third best offense in the division this year behind the Vikings and Lions.  I don't think they have an identity and they really aren't that good without McAdoo.  
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Taking action on them being third best? There is more likelihood that the Bears are #1 than the Packers being 3rd/4th.

Vikings with only AP as a top tier threat?

Lions without their #1 weapon for the last 5+ years?

Sure maybe they are not top 3 in the NFL but the NFC North doesn't exactly scream offense except the Packers.

 
abbottjamesr said:
Green Bay - I am not convinced that getting Nelson back fixes their issues.  In my mind they might be the third best offense in the division this year behind the Vikings and Lions.  I don't think they have an identity and they really aren't that good without McAdoo.  
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I agree

 
GB last year couldn't be all Jordy's fault  

JAX I think Bortles won't repeat his volume

AZ Palmer hits the wall

 
Reports are Cobb was hurt..

Guys gotta figure them DB's are game rdy playing Rodgers   (He will eat you alive)

I question if Jordy is 100%, just because its become so common..   << players returning at 110%  ie. Charles AP etc.

However, I dont believe 3rd place in offensive stats is possible..

So this is a good post because:

its possible Jordy isnt game ready

Cobb may just not thrive on the pressure of being WR1

Hope that helps ya guys some (maybe) I dunno

What about that OLine??

Rodgers aint going deep if he only has a second or two..

 
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I like the  call on Green Bay.  I'm a Packer fan but boy, seeing what happened last year it just seems like they were missing more than the loss of Jordy.  I hope I'm wrong.

My other would be the Texans.  We have all seen QB with a small sample size move on to a new team with a big contract and be huge disappointments.  New QB, new lead RB are some big changes.  I see this as a little risky investment.

 
Franknbeans said:
the Steelers. they really have no secondary receiver as of now.  Once LeVeon comes back , he will probably serve as that guy but the first three games could be lower scoring if teams try and neutralize AB.
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Roethlisburger will lean on Jessie James and others - he has turned lesser talent into more his entire career. And while Bell is out, don't forget they have DeAnkelo. 

I'm not worried about the Steelers offense at all, but I concede you may be correct. To me PIT is only in trouble if Big Ben goes down because they have nothing at QB2. 

 
Patriots without brady for 4 games, dion for who knows, gronk hurting, edelman and amendola coming back, and the o line in shambles.  It is going to be ugly on offense for a while.  The d should be very good though.

 
Packers homer here so take this for what its worth...

The offense was solid first 6 weeks last year w/o Jordy. Why? Cause Cobb dominated and Montgomery made some big plays.

Now-- they get Nelson back, Cobb healthy (he was playing with a bum shoulder all season), Montgomery healthy, they add Cook, and Lacy looks 5x better than last year? Not to mention Adams was playing on a bum ankle last year and Abbrederis has emerged as another quality weapon. 

I think the offense could be really tough. The thing people forget about GB is that they will be in the 17-23 range if not lower for pass attempts. They WANT to run the ball. They will run no huddle, but run the clock to 2, 1 or 0 before every snap. MM likes to shorten the game.... So when there efficiency is dog sh** like last year-- they're going to struggle. I think with all those dudes healthy- they're going to be able to move the chains on 3rd down-- something they just couldn't do at all last year. This is assuming whoever the hell they plug in at LG doesn't get Rodgers killed. 

 
Warhogs said:
I like the  call on Green Bay.  I'm a Packer fan but boy, seeing what happened last year it just seems like they were missing more than the loss of Jordy.  I hope I'm wrong.

My other would be the Texans.  We have all seen QB with a small sample size move on to a new team with a big contract and be huge disappointments.  New QB, new lead RB are some big changes.  I see this as a little risky investment.
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Yeah - they were also dealing with a 300 lb Eddie Lacy, and a Cobb who just isn't a WR1. They also had little going for them at TE1 and they had a slew of nagging injuries to linemen all year IIRC. 

There was a ton going wrong in GB last year besides Jordy, but I don't see that carrying over to this year. Possible, sure, but IMO they're gonna be ok. 

 
packer_junkie said:
 I think the offense could be really tough. The thing people forget about GB is that they will be in the 17-23 range if not lower for pass attempts. They WANT to run the ball. They will run no huddle, but run the clock to 2, 1 or 0 before every snap. MM likes to shorten the game.... So when there efficiency is dog sh** like last year-- they're going to struggle
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Good point - it's something that seems to be the never ending hypocrisy in the NFL. Coaches want to shorten the game by running the ball, but they also want to play fast and run more plays. Those two things seem to be at odds with one another. 

Unless it's "play fast to get a lead, then play slow with the lead" which I guess makes sense, but I have yet to see a team that can successfully do both. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Yeah - they were also dealing with a 300 lb Eddie Lacy, and a Cobb who just isn't a WR1. They also had little going for them at TE1 and they had a slew of nagging injuries to linemen all year IIRC. 

There was a ton going wrong in GB last year besides Jordy, but I don't see that carrying over to this year. Possible, sure, but IMO they're gonna be ok. 
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I understand your take, but consider that Rodgers is going in the QB2 range, Nelson and Cobb around WR10 and 20, Lacy around RB8-10. Even Cook started to move up draft boards at TE later in the preseason.

With those kinds of prices being paid across the board, people are effectively assuming the Pack return to 2014 form without missing a beat. Even an "OK" season is going to mean a failure to deliver value to a lot of these owners.

 
Mr. Irrelevant said:
I understand your take, but consider that Rodgers is going in the QB2 range, Nelson and Cobb around WR10 and 20, Lacy around RB8-10. Even Cook started to move up draft boards at TE later in the preseason.

With those kinds of prices being paid across the board, people are effectively assuming the Pack return to 2014 form without missing a beat. Even an "OK" season is going to mean a failure to deliver value to a lot of these owners.
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Oh, for sure - sorry, I assumed this topic was more about r/l football than fantasy #s.  

For FFB purposes, here's my take: 

  • Eddie Lacy will deliver a RB1 season, but with the presence of Starks, not quite the Rb1 season people expected in 2014 before Starks emerged. 
  • Rodgers will be a QB1, but maybe not THE QB1 for fantasy. I still give him top 3. Likely Brees/Cam/Rodgers in some order, with maybe a 35% chance Rodgers is THE QB1
  • Jordy will be a WR1, but possibly not top 8? I think 9-12 range is a fair expectation. Until I see him play it's hard to know what to expect. Sometimes the 1st year back from a knee can be a trust issue for the player. However history suggests this effects RBs more than WRs. 
  • Cobb will return solid WR2 value regardless - his shoulder really hampered him last year, and the loss of Jordy exposed him a bit. With Nelson taking pressure off and possibly the emergence of Cook, I think Cobb is a bargain this year. 
But this is all speculation - I think the Packers offense will be ok. 

 
Gotta be Jacksonville.  I don't see them being able to rack up all those junk yards/points like they did last season.

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
uh oh - I have a Dez share. hush yo mouf. Dak is for real, Dak is for real....man, no matter how many times I say it it just doesn't quite roll off the tongue.
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Romo even if he return is damaged goods. Dak looks promising, but he is still a rookie. Yes, the Oline is great.  They are better run blockers then pass protectors and have had some challenges with heavy blitzing teams.  EE WILL get his, take that to the bank.  Dez is very reliant on what happens with the QB situation.  I see them beig more conservative then years past too.

I just don't see the explosiveness anymore.  More of a punch you in the gut 12 times and hope to finish you off late kinda deal.  :shrug:

 
Bankerguy said:
Romo even if he return is damaged goods. Dak looks promising, but he is still a rookie. Yes, the Oline is great.  They are better run blockers then pass protectors and have had some challenges with heavy blitzing teams.  EE WILL get his, take that to the bank.  Dez is very reliant on what happens with the QB situation.  I see them beig more conservative then years past too.

I just don't see the explosiveness anymore.  More of a punch you in the gut 12 times and hope to finish you off late kinda deal.  :shrug:
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I dunno - a healthy Dez goes up and get the ball. That's a young QB's best friend. 

See, here's a Niner fan helping a Cowboys fan feel a little better about his team. We really call all get along. :)

(I threw up in my mouth a little when I picked Dez, but at 3.03 I couldn't pass it up. I detest having to root for a Cowboy. lol)

 
Cardinals and Colts were already listed but I'm heavily invested in both across my leagues.

Palmer really concerns me.  As mentioned, complete hot garbage in the playoffs to end last season, horrid pre-season, 36 going on 37, history of injuries...Lots to be nervous about.  I love David Johnson and the WR corps but if the trigger man goes down or has a huge regression in play, both of which are distinct possibilities, the whole offense will underperform very high expectations.

Indy's O-line might get Luck killed again this year, there are rumors of Luck having a frayed Labrum, and he just didnt looked the same when he did play last season.  Some like me are betting on Luck having a return to 2014 form.  I'm now having the feeling that was a foolish bet.

 
VaTerp said:
Cardinals and Colts were already listed but I'm heavily invested in both across my leagues.

Palmer really concerns me.  As mentioned, complete hot garbage in the playoffs to end last season, horrid pre-season, 36 going on 37, history of injuries...Lots to be nervous about.  I love David Johnson and the WR corps but if the trigger man goes down or has a huge regression in play, both of which are distinct possibilities, the whole offense will underperform very high expectations.

Indy's O-line might get Luck killed again this year, there are rumors of Luck having a frayed Labrum, and he just didnt looked the same when he did play last season.  Some like me are betting on Luck having a return to 2014 form.  I'm now having the feeling that was a foolish bet.
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David Johnson / Dante Moncrief owner here. Crossing my fingers and holding my breath. The LT going down in Indy was a huge blow. Or was it right? Either way, they can ill afford to lose anyone on that already shaky line. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
David Johnson / Dante Moncrief owner here. Crossing my fingers and holding my breath. The LT going down in Indy was a huge blow. Or was it right? Either way, they can ill afford to lose anyone on that already shaky line. 
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Colts didnt lose a Tackle, I don't think.  Starting LG, Mewhort got hurt- many thought for the year initially- but now its looking like he could be back in a few weeks.

Either way, their line is not good healthy.  More injuries will just make a bad sitation worse.

 
VaTerp said:
Colts didnt lose a Tackle, I don't think.  Starting LG, Mewhort got hurt- many thought for the year initially- but now its looking like he could be back in a few weeks.

Either way, their line is not good healthy.  More injuries will just make a bad sitation worse.
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That was it - yeah, sorry, was busy and didn't feel like looking it up. Knew it was an OL. Close enough. Yeesh, that's gonna suck. 

 
Packers offense could very well be overrated but 3rd best in the NFC North?  Come on.

 
Some good responses here. Upon further reflection, I think what I was really getting at was "Which players were overdrafted because we all assumed they were part of high-powered offenses and there would be plenty to go around?"

Based on that criteria, I think the Colts are the winner. Other than Luck and Hilton, none of those guys have ever produced over the course of a full season. And yet people are all in on Moncrief as a WR2, reaching for Dorsett as a sleeper, and viewing Allen as a TE1. Maybe those things will happen, but there's a lot of projection going on. 

 
Ben McAdoo being the reason for the Packers success is a stretch. Out of 8 extremely illustrious years as a starter, Rodgers two best are the year before McAdoo became QB coach and the year after he left town.

 
Pipes said:
Packers offense could very well be overrated but 3rd best in the NFC North?  Come on.
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I think there is a decent chance that GB finishes third in the division by wins.  Their total offensive numbers will be better than Minnesota but they wont win as many games.

Stafford has a decent chance of being better in FF than Rodgers and certainly a better value if its even close in points.

Peterson will finish higher than Lacy by a landslide. 

Maybe Nelson isn't the same this year and is only a WR2 in FF.  Cobb is solid but if the offense struggles as a whole, his TD rate will take a serious hit.

I don't own any packers in FF this year as I think they are all over rated, which is what this post was originally about.  I would rather start players from the other three teams in the division than the packers at ADP.

 
abbottjamesr said:
I would rather start players from the other three teams in the division than the packers at ADP.
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The above may have been what you meant but it's markedly different from what you said in your first post....

abbottjamesr said:
In my mind they might be the third best offense in the division this year behind the Vikings and Lions.  I don't think they have an identity and they really aren't that good without McAdoo.  
Click to expand...

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
I'm a bit worried about the AZ passing game. Palmer has looked like hot garbage all preseason, and he's old, and has always been a little turnover prone.

Might be why coaches have been talking up the David Johnson experience so much - regression from last year's passion game is expected, but it might be worst than the expected regression. 
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This.  I don't like what I'm seeing with Palmer.  First time I saw a weaker arm was late last year.  Balls starting to float. Continued in the pre-season.  Couple that with John Brown's concussion issues, Fitz a bit older, etc and I see the passing game taking a hit.  

 
Going with JAX. A ton of the WR points came in garbage time. The running game and defense will be a little better this year which will keep them more competitive throughout the game.  Due to this there will be a little regression in fantasy performance from Bortles. Combine that with several top-tier QBs getting their mojo back (Rodgers, Luck) and his ranking falls further.  I don't think they're going to implode or anything, and Robinson is certainly a top fantasy pick, but everyone else is going to get dinged a little. 

 
zftcg said:
Some good responses here. Upon further reflection, I think what I was really getting at was "Which players were overdrafted because we all assumed they were part of high-powered offenses and there would be plenty to go around?"

Based on that criteria, I think the Colts are the winner. Other than Luck and Hilton, none of those guys have ever produced over the course of a full season. And yet people are all in on Moncrief as a WR2, reaching for Dorsett as a sleeper, and viewing Allen as a TE1. Maybe those things will happen, but there's a lot of projection going on. 
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Dorsett and Allen are barely drafted even in my deep leagues (round 15+ fliers) so those aren't noteworhty.  

I don't think it's unreasonable for one of the best QBs in the game to have two WRs in the top 24, especially with that awful, awful defense digging them holes. 

I'm not as negative on the Packers as some people are here but it is certainly questionable whether 3 players picked in the top 36 overall (Nelson/Lacy/Cobb) can possibly all live up to those draft positions. Given the gains on the defense (they were a top 3 unit in 2014, regressed a bit in 2015, but are back to a top 5 unit this year) there's not going to be any need for Rodgers to be throwing for 4800 yards.  So one of Nelson or Cobb are likely to be overrated (I think it's Nelson) and Lacy might take a little hit due to Sitton leaving.  

 
abbottjamesr said:
I think there is a decent chance that GB finishes third in the division by wins.  Their total offensive numbers will be better than Minnesota but they wont win as many games.

Stafford has a decent chance of being better in FF than Rodgers and certainly a better value if its even close in points.

Peterson will finish higher than Lacy by a landslide. 

Maybe Nelson isn't the same this year and is only a WR2 in FF.  Cobb is solid but if the offense struggles as a whole, his TD rate will take a serious hit.

I don't own any packers in FF this year as I think they are all over rated, which is what this post was originally about.  I would rather start players from the other three teams in the division than the packers at ADP.
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I guess I'll say the Lions if people are thinking Stafford has a chance of being better in FF than Rodgers.  Barring an injury I just don't see it.  I think Stafford will struggle big time this year with garbage time stats being his saving grace.

I'll say this that last year was an embarrassment for Rodgers, McCarthy and that entire Packers offense. Yes Nelson was hurt but that doesn't excuse Rodgers mediocre year (by his standards), Lacy's terrible out of shape year, Cobb looking average, Adams dropping everything in sight, no real TE to speak of and most importantly in my mind terrible offensive game plans week in and week out.  Another performance like that and I'd expect some major changes in GB this upcoming offseason.

 
abbottjamesr said:
I think there is a decent chance that GB finishes third in the division by wins.  Their total offensive numbers will be better than Minnesota but they wont win as many games.

Stafford has a decent chance of being better in FF than Rodgers and certainly a better value if its even close in points.

Peterson will finish higher than Lacy by a landslide. 

Maybe Nelson isn't the same this year and is only a WR2 in FF.  Cobb is solid but if the offense struggles as a whole, his TD rate will take a serious hit.

I don't own any packers in FF this year as I think they are all over rated, which is what this post was originally about.  I would rather start players from the other three teams in the division than the packers at ADP.
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lol

 
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