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What sleepers of the past actually panned out? (1 Viewer)

T

Tillmanisahero

Footballguy
In the last 5 years, what sleeper did you predict would "Blow up" and actually did? FBGs staff please chime in here.

What made you pick them? (Hunch, Research, Inside info etc...)

What have you learned from that prediction (I am good, Every once in a while a blind sow finds an acorn, Hard work pays off etc.....)

 
jason witten 2004.... got him in round 13 after hanging around here reading posts. :X

(he was #3 TE that year in the league I drafted him in)

 
Tillmanisahero said:
In the last 5 years, what sleeper did you predict would "Blow up" and actually did? FBGs staff please chime in here.What made you pick them? (Hunch, Research, Inside info etc...)What have you learned from that prediction (I am good, Every once in a while a blind sow finds an acorn, Hard work pays off etc.....)
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At the start of the 2007 season, I predicted WR James Jones (GB) to have 1000 yards and 8 TD's. When he accomplished the feat, I learned that he'll be on my team for another year.
 
Carson Palmer. I was taking him after almost everyone had the backup Qbs already and i rode him all year..

Last year i was getting Brees as a backup to Vick late and it worked out good for me.

 
Several years ago got Hines Ward in the 13th round before his breakout. 2 years ago Galloway and Witten were FA's.

Last year Will Smith and Colston were FA's. It happens.

 
The obvious one around here in 2006 was Marques Colston. Alot of people hyped him (I wasn't one of them). I don't recall anyone pushing the other late round flyer, Mike Furrey. I don't know if the MJD selection last year or certainly the Antonio Gates selection, where he was hyped on almost every FF website, count as sleepers. They certainly outperformed their ADP, so by that definition they were. If Calvin Johnson ends up in the top 20 (surpassing his 6th round ADP, will he consistute a sleeper?). Three years ago you definitley had a small contingent of posters pushing Anquan Boldin, I missed that one too. (I play in leagues where you draft 18 - 20 players, so these are the picks that win you championships). It is these gems that keep me coming back to read the boards.

 
I felt Joey Galloway was a nice sleeper in each of the last few years and he's been fantastic in that role. I thought Houshmanzadeh was a terrific sleeper pick last year and that worked out great as well.

This year I think Deion Branch and Andre Johnson could be nice sleeper picks.

Edit to add: I never really "guarantee" that a sleeper pick WILL "blow up" per se. I don't think that's the way to approach drafting sleepers. They are shots to take in the mid-late rounds.

 
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Ben Roethlisberger would actually qualify as a sleeper.....if he didn't have so much hype around him that someone always drafts him too early lol. His biggest issue is he can't stay healthy. I like taking guys with that as their only knock later on -- but Ben never falls that far. Even this year -- Ben was selected by someone as his starter. His STARTER!

 
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Clinton Portis his rookie year

Larry Johnson, Larry Fitz, Steve Smith two years ago

Gore, Colston last year

This year I like Calvin Johnson, Vernon Davis, Travis Henry as value picks who will be elite. Tater Bell, Jerry Porter as super late flyers.

Every year it seems like there are guys that break out. Finding these guys and not busting early wins championships.

 
How late a draft pick constitutes a "sleeper."

Antonio Gates was huge as a sleeper pick his first year. 17th rounder in my league

Kevin Curtis was pretty good as a sleeper two years ago. I got him the 18th, 16th and 15th that year and he was in the top 25.

I'm only counting players that were drafted in the last 5 or so rounds of a draft. I'm trying not to include waiver pick ups such as Dominick Davis, Chad Johnson or Marques Colston. Last year I decided to draft the #3 receiver in NO with my 18th pick. I looked it up and and Devery Henderson was listed so I selected him. I later dropped him for Marquis Colston, but it almost counts.

 
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Willowdoc said:
The obvious one around here in 2006 was Marques Colston. Alot of people hyped him (I wasn't one of them). I don't recall anyone pushing the other late round flyer, Mike Furrey. I don't know if the MJD selection last year or certainly the Antonio Gates selection, where he was hyped on almost every FF website, count as sleepers. They certainly outperformed their ADP, so by that definition they were. If Calvin Johnson ends up in the top 20 (surpassing his 6th round ADP, will he consistute a sleeper?). Three years ago you definitley had a small contingent of posters pushing Anquan Boldin, I missed that one too. (I play in leagues where you draft 18 - 20 players, so these are the picks that win you championships). It is these gems that keep me coming back to read the boards.
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He is referring to 2004 with Gates. People were talking him up as a sleeper that year due to his strong finish at the end of 2003. In a 14 team league I took him as the 9th TE off the board. I was actually scoffed at! Gates blew up that year.
 
Drafted Kurt Warner as Mr. Irrelevant the year he went off. Then traded him later in the year as I figured he had nowhere to go but down for......Jake Plummer :moneybag:

 
Here is my From the Gut article last year:

2006 Article

Hits:

1. Jay Cutler better than Plummer

2. Michael Vick

3. Eli Manning sucking

4. McNabb (great until injured)

5. Carr sucks

6. Ben Roethlisberger regresses

7. Jon Kitna

8. Byron Leftwich will falter

9. Willie Parker

10. Avoid Portis

11. Avoid Edgerrin James

12. Frank Gore

13. Reggie Bush

14. Avoid Vernon Davis

15. Donald Driver

16. TJ Housmandzadeh

17. Pittsburgh WRs

18. Darrell Jackson

19. Eddie Kennison

20. Horn to put up modest stats and another WR emerging

Misses:

1. Daunte Culpepper

2. Chris Simms

3. Morency/Lundy

4. Joseph Addai

5. Michael Turner

6. Laurence Maroney (injuries delayed it)

7. Ben Troupe

8. Terrell Owens

9. Sammie Parker

10. Troy Williamson

11. Chicago Defense

On the fence:

1. Alex Smith

2. Deshaun Foster

3. Ben Watson

 
Prior to last season:

According to the current FBG rankings, Chris Chambers is WR11 and Lee Evans is WR22. Personally, I think they got the two rankings reversed. I think Lee Evans presents fantastic value on draft day because people will be too low on his QB situation and too quick to jump on the trendy WRs of the week. The numbers don't lie.
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I owned Evans in almost every league last year, and didn't own Chambers in one. Obviously any time you get something like that there's going to be some luck involved, but what turned me onto Evans and off of Chambers was Evans' catch% and especially his points per target, which were among the best in the league after both of his first two seasons despite playing with J.P. Losman (the terrible sucky version rather than the new and improved maybe-he'll-be-mediocre version).
 
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