What type of sweep is more likely this weekend? (1 Viewer)

[tikitime]

I know the seabags game skews this some, but I'm surprised in that I have seen perhaps the majority of "experts" projecting an all-road team winning slate. Doesn;t that seem highly, highly improbable in a playoff fan enviornment.

 

[renesauz]

I know the seabags game skews this some, but I'm surprised in that I have seen perhaps the majority of "experts" projecting an all-road team winning slate. Doesn;t that seem highly, highly improbable in a playoff fan enviornment.

It is extremely improbable...but not more improbable than both the Seachickens and the Chefs winning against vastly superior opponents. I'd say the Jets and Packers have at least a 40% chance (if not more) of pulling out the road win.

 

[thriftyrocker]

If we say 90% Saints, 65% Ravens, 45% Jets and Pack, that's still only a 12% chance of the quad-fecta.

 

[tikitime]

If we say 90% Saints, 65% Ravens, 45% Jets and Pack, that's still only a 12% chance of the quad-fecta.

Curious why you think the ravens are 65% to win, but Philly and Indy are only 55 considering the relative lines.

 

[Ghost Rider]

I think it was 2000 where all or most of the road teams were expected to win during wild card weekend...and all of the home teams won.

Check that, I just looked. Most expected two of the road teams to win (St. Louis at NO, and Indy at Miami), while TB at Philly was a 50/50 split similar to Philly/GB this year. Most expected the Ravens to win the Denver at Baltimore game.

Anyway, I am just saying, beware of the traps. I like most of the road teams this weekend, but there is a reason why I don't bet on point spreads anymore.

 

[thriftyrocker]

If we say 90% Saints, 65% Ravens, 45% Jets and Pack, that's still only a 12% chance of the quad-fecta.

Curious why you think the ravens are 65% to win, but Philly and Indy are only 55 considering the relative lines.

Just pulling numbers out to get the multiply result. I think the Ravens are likely to win and a much better team. I think Philly/GB is a coin flip - GB is a slightly better team but Vick is the best player on the field and it is at PHI. If there's any game I might give 2nd thought to it's Indy. This seems like a game Peyton will dominate since he is great at taking what the defense gives, and the Jets give a lot over the middle. Both teams come in a little shakey, but the Jets a little more shakey. I would rather bet on Indy than the Eagles but really I'm not touching either.