What we learned this year - QB (1 Viewer)

[Sigmund Bloom]

No shame in picking a QB early - Brees, Manning, and Rodgers gave a great ROI. Brady had a rough stretch in the second half of the season, but he wasn't a bust of a 2nd/3rd round pick by any measure. The next four QBs off the board - Rivers, Warner, McNabb, Romo - were all fine everyweek starting options. If you took any of the consensus top eight QBs, you were happy with your pick
Matt Schaub is not injury-prone - If your game plan was to wait until 8-9 QBs are off the board and then take Schaub, you had the best strategy at QB this year. Schaub played every game despite a separated non-throwing shoulder, and save for the week 1 debacle vs the Jets, he was as consistent as any fantasy QB.
There are landmines in the 9-15 range, but there are great values, too. - Carson Palmer returning to form never happened because the Bengals have absorbed the DNA of their AFC North brothers and become a running/defense heavy team. Jay Cutler looked like a young Jake Delhomme. Matt Ryan got hurt and never really had a hot streak when he was healthy. Matt Hasselbeck looked like a QB at the end of his career. Matt Cassel was harmless in Todd Haley's offense. David Garrard barely looked like an NFL starter on the road. On the other hand, Ben Roethlisberger finally got to show off his considerable passing talent in a balanced-to-pass heavy offense, Eli Manning was productive with a stable of young talents at WR. Joe Flacco had a couple of nice stretches where you could rely on him. If you doubled up on QB because you were one of the last teams to take one, chances are you got a viable QB, because Ben and Eli were often the "safe" pick to hedge a Ryan/Cutler/Garrard riskier QB1.
The preseason breakout candidates failed, but a few QBs came back from the dead. - Orton and Edwards never made the leap that some saw coming, but Brett Favre was a revelation, and both Alex Smith and Vince Young ended up being solid starts for most of the second half of the season.
There is no wrong strategy at QB, but depth will make waiting the best call in 2010 once again. - I dont blame you if you take Rodgers/Brees/Manning/Brady early. I don't blame you if take a Schaub/Rivers/Romo/McNabb when they fall to the 5th or 6th round. If Warner and Favre return, adding Big Ben and Eli will make 12 very solid QB options to start the season. Not to mention you can take a Cutler/Ryan as a backup in the next round. Flacco/Henne/VY/ASmith/Stafford/Freeman will all be backup picks with upside. Even if you don't hit on any picks, you'll likely get first choice of any WW QBs because so many people will be set at the position.
We were treated to a quiet year in terms of QB injuries. - Sure, Warner and Roeth missed a game. Ryan and McNabb missed a couple of games, too. Still, we didn't see any marquee QBs go down for extended periods, which is great for fantasy and great for the NFL. Perhaps it will make drafting a backup QB seem even less important in 2010 drafts, which will make the value extended even farther.
Look out for Matt Moore and Bruce Gradkowski next year. - Both revived sputtering passing games in the second half of the season, and both earned the chance to at least compete for the job in camp in 2010.Other thoughts on QB this year, especially how it will affect your approach to the position in 2010?

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Few more thoughts:

Beware of changing team philosophies: See Palmer/Roethlisberger for examples.

The addition of a young stud WR in the making can revive a QBs value: see Favre/Romo for examples

Pass heavy offense doesnt equal fantasy viability: See Hasselbeck, Cutler, Ryan for examples.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

IMO consistency is a huge factor at the QB position....

I had Rodgers in two leagues and he put my team on his back for a stretch when I lost Leon Washington, Ronnie Brown, other guys, etc.......it was nice not to have to worry about the QB position and know I was going to get solid production (except for week 14)......if I also would have had to worry about trying to play the "right" QB matchup etc, I think I would have been screwed as I often pick the wrong guy anyway.....I think some guys wait, and they hit the jackpot (Schaub, etc), but for me, there is something to be said for taking a top guy early, even though it puts you behind the 8-ball a little at other positions......

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

6 TD leagues, go for the stud. I'd rather juggle RB's or WR's in that format.

As far as next year, I expect another step fantasy wise from Alex Smith. Same offense & I expect even more spread w/ very good young weapons. Crabtree should surpass 80 and 1000 next year. He's Matt Cassel with a line & a multitude of receiving weapons.

Seattle offense looked like a collection of guys at the end [Hass/Julius/TJ/Branch] with a bad O-line. Overhaul time there.

Next year will be the lowest you'll ever get Matt Ryan. Year 3 and more importantly continuity on offense. I think they're one receiving & legit CoP threat [would love to see Spiller/Best there] from being at the very top of the league on offense. Hitching their wagon to Mike Jenkins wasn't the best move. Really was a mistake dealing Laurent Robinson -- never will understand that deal for peanuts as I think the guy has elite hands [possession&down field threat]. Liked Harry Douglas a lot pre-injury as well.

 

[The Riv]

I started Schaub in four out of my five leagues this year (McNabb/Kolb in the fifth) and felt he was a great value. If he can improve his TD:INT he'll take that last step toward elite FF QB status, IMO -- that, along with the helpful return of Owen Daniels, an uptick in his #2 WR (Jacoby?), and merely a steady running game. Definitely keeping or redrafting to have Schaub on my 2010 rosters.

ETA: hope you start threads like this for all postions, Bloom.

 

[Chaka]

I don't blame you if take a Schaub/Rivers/Romo/McNabb when they fall to the 5th or 6th round.

I have learned that most fantasy leagues continue to undervalue the most important position in the game.

 

[My Hope Street Alias]

IMO consistency is a huge factor at the QB position....

I had Rodgers in two leagues and he put my team on his back for a stretch when I lost Leon Washington, Ronnie Brown, other guys, etc.......it was nice not to have to worry about the QB position and know I was going to get solid production (except for week 14)......if I also would have had to worry about trying to play the "right" QB matchup etc, I think I would have been screwed as I often pick the wrong guy anyway.....I think some guys wait, and they hit the jackpot (Schaub, etc), but for me, there is something to be said for taking a top guy early, even though it puts you behind the 8-ball a little at other positions......

I'd almost forgotten.

 

[Crusaderfan]

I took Schaub as the 11th QB drafted in a league that gives 1 pt per completion and 6 pts per TD. It was either him or Palmer and I went Schaub. The day after our draft , Houston was on TV in what I think was their last pre-season game. Schaub pulled up lame while running out of bounds. Not touched by anyone. I thought my season was gonna be 17 weeks of Schaub in and out of the line-up with little nagging injuries.

Wow - he basically won my league for me. So yeah - you can win by waiting on a QB but I wouldn't advise it in this type of league. Just some dumb luck here .

Imagine If I had bit on the Garrard hype instead.

 

[Todem]

I love Brees....but man he killed me down the stretch....killed me. We needed elite numbers week 15-16 and it never came.

 

[tbglog]

Dont undervalue experience. I went in planning on gertting 1 of these 3 Warner/Farve/Mcnabb cheap. Auction league. I got favre for 3 and Mcnabb for $11.00. I think Mcnabb is always overlooked as a upper tier FF QB, not sure why, but he seems to bring value every year. Dont underestimate match-ups. Revis hurt both #1 WR numbers, he also hurt QB numbers by taking away the #1 option.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

Dont undervalue experience. I went in planning on gertting 1 of these 3 Warner/Farve/Mcnabb cheap. Auction league. I got favre for 3 and Mcnabb for $11.00. I think Mcnabb is always overlooked as a upper tier FF QB, not sure why, but he seems to bring value every year. Dont underestimate match-ups. Revis hurt both #1 WR numbers, he also hurt QB numbers by taking away the #1 option.

I don't normally do this, but next year I will be taking a look at who the Jets play in week 14-16 when I start considering WR.......dude is just sick

 

[BoltBacker]

I don't blame you if take a Schaub/Rivers/Romo/McNabb when they fall to the 5th or 6th round.

I have learned that most fantasy leagues continue to undervalue the most important position in the game.

I completely agree.I don't know who has written in stone that TD thrown by a QB should only be worth 4 points at the most and every other TD should be worth 6 points but it seems pretty pervasive in the hobby. Would it really be that bad if you needed a good QB to win the Super Bowl? Wouldn't that be more realistic?

 

[Hendo]

with the revolving door on top end RB's and unstability at the position i don't blame anyone grabbing a Brees/Manning/Rodgers with in the 1st/2nd rounds of a draft paired with a RB imo...

in dynasty i value all three higher then RB's based off the longevity/stability factor there.

 

[Summer Wheat]

I took Romo as the 8th QB off the board was happy with his output all year.

 

[Ariakis]

Made it to the championship and lost with Brees and Rodgers. Lost in the playoffs with Brady ... won it all with Kyle Orton. What did I learn? Your studs are going to stink at random points of the year.

 

[smackdaddies]

IMO consistency is a huge factor at the QB position....I had Rodgers in two leagues and he put my team on his back for a stretch when I lost Leon Washington, Ronnie Brown, other guys, etc.......it was nice not to have to worry about the QB position and know I was going to get solid production (except for week 14)......if I also would have had to worry about trying to play the "right" QB matchup etc, I think I would have been screwed as I often pick the wrong guy anyway.....I think some guys wait, and they hit the jackpot (Schaub, etc), but for me, there is something to be said for taking a top guy early, even though it puts you behind the 8-ball a little at other positions......

Drafting LT in the first round puts you behind at other positions.....Just Sayin...

 

[Irish Chaos]

I really like this concept. any way we can do one for RBs/Wrs?

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

I really like this concept. any way we can do one for RBs/Wrs?

Ill start one for the other positions when I get time later this week - finishing up projections, buy low sell high tonight

 

[Moe Green]

Good thread, Bloom.

 

[gonzobill5]

There is no wrong strategy at QB, but depth will make waiting the best call in 2010 once again.

If you mean waiting for the last of the top eight or so elite guys, I agree with you. In years past I would feel pretty comfortable with a pair of borderline QB1s. Play matchups if one didn't separate himself. I think this year showed us two things - the number of elite QBs is growing from 3 or 4 to perhaps as many as a dozen. And these are young guys who don't appear to be going away anytime soon. Just look at these names:

Rodgers, Brees, Manning, Brady, Schaub, Rivers, Romo, Roetlisberger, McNabb, Eli, Palmer, Flacco, Ryan, Cutler

I have a hard time believing the first 8 don't finish top ten in some order, barring injury (by the way, why do you think QBs aren't getting injured anymore?? It's no coincidence).

In head to head leagues, you could get away with a mediocre quarterback when there were only 3 or 4 teams with elite quarterbacks. So what if a few guys were putting up 20-24 ppg when your guy was only good for 16. You had better players elsewhere to make up for it.

But here is the problem when the rest of the league is littered with these elite QBs and you don't have one (and I'll be looking at this in more depth in the offseason, this is just off the cuff). Nearly every week you'll be up against the potential of something ridiculous like 5 TDs or 500 yards. The kind of week that can singlehandedly wipe out a team. You'll catch Aaron Rodgers on a great week in week 1, then Manning in week 2, and before you know it, you're team is done. What I'm saying is, I believe in the current pass happy NFL, the lack of top end QB talent is no more. The gap between QB8 and QB12 is wider than ever. Meanwhile, it seems that the 20+ TD running backs that we saw at the start of the decade are hard to come by.

In this NFL, I don't want to be the first guy to take a QB - but I definitely don't want to be the last.

 

[ratbast]

Ive always wanted a top notch, plug and play QB. If you dont get a top QB, the start of the season can be brutal and you might have to trade the guy (RB/WR), the same guy you got from waiting, for a new QB.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

4000 yards in a season is no longer special. Adjust your expectations accordingly. If you're QB isn't atr this level, you have a problem.

 

[sports_fan]

Great thread here. Thank you for the excellent insight Bloom.

 

[candymanvandyfan]

1. Take advantage of opponents' recency error, which is spawned, in part, by conclusory gibberish like this:

"Matt Schaub is not injury-prone." Reliability is a time-based concept. What about last year and the year before? Who cares? I believe what I saw most recently.

Without mentioning any names, some, for instance, had Favre at QB23 heading into the season. Why? Because people believe most what they saw most recently.

Recency error can be avoided through the use and analysis of statistics and can be spawned in other players through the use of narrative.

2. Take all the unpopular guys who produce. Their points all count the same on my teams.

 

[SSOG]

Dont undervalue experience. I went in planning on gertting 1 of these 3 Warner/Farve/Mcnabb cheap. Auction league. I got favre for 3 and Mcnabb for $11.00. I think Mcnabb is always overlooked as a upper tier FF QB, not sure why, but he seems to bring value every year. Dont underestimate match-ups. Revis hurt both #1 WR numbers, he also hurt QB numbers by taking away the #1 option.

I don't normally do this, but next year I will be taking a look at who the Jets play in week 14-16 when I start considering WR.......dude is just sick

CBs are incredibly volatile from year to year. I try to wait until I see a CB do it two-three years in a row before I start expecting it going forward.

 

[5-ish Finkle]

1. Take advantage of opponents' recency error, which is spawned, in part, by conclusory gibberish like this:

"Matt Schaub is not injury-prone." Reliability is a time-based concept. What about last year and the year before? Who cares? I believe what I saw most recently.

Without mentioning any names, some, for instance, had Favre at QB23 heading into the season. Why? Because people believe most what they saw most recently.

Recency error can be avoided through the use and analysis of statistics and can be spawned in other players through the use of narrative.

2. Take all the unpopular guys who produce. Their points all count the same on my teams.

Being cheap-shotted now counts as being injury prone? Good to know.

 

[jeremyx13]

I took Schaub as the 11th QB drafted in a league that gives 1 pt per completion and 6 pts per TD. It was either him or Palmer and I went Schaub. The day after our draft , Houston was on TV in what I think was their last pre-season game. Schaub pulled up lame while running out of bounds. Not touched by anyone. I thought my season was gonna be 17 weeks of Schaub in and out of the line-up with little nagging injuries. Wow - he basically won my league for me. So yeah - you can win by waiting on a QB but I wouldn't advise it in this type of league. Just some dumb luck here .Imagine If I had bit on the Garrard hype instead.

2 QB league, I drafted Peyton, Garrard, and Stafford as a backup. Traded Peyton for Schaub though. Finished 8-8 because of inconsistency with Garrard and injury to Stafford.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

No shame in picking a QB early - Brees, Manning, and Rodgers gave a great ROI. Brady had a rough stretch in the second half of the season, but he wasn't a bust of a 2nd/3rd round pick by any measure. The next four QBs off the board - Rivers, Warner, McNabb, Romo - were all fine everyweek starting options. If you took any of the consensus top eight QBs, you were happy with your pick
Matt Schaub is not injury-prone - If your game plan was to wait until 8-9 QBs are off the board and then take Schaub, you had the best strategy at QB this year. Schaub played every game despite a separated non-throwing shoulder, and save for the week 1 debacle vs the Jets, he was as consistent as any fantasy QB.
There are landmines in the 9-15 range, but there are great values, too. - Carson Palmer returning to form never happened because the Bengals have absorbed the DNA of their AFC North brothers and become a running/defense heavy team. Jay Cutler looked like a young Jake Delhomme. Matt Ryan got hurt and never really had a hot streak when he was healthy. Matt Hasselbeck looked like a QB at the end of his career. Matt Cassel was harmless in Todd Haley's offense. David Garrard barely looked like an NFL starter on the road. On the other hand, Ben Roethlisberger finally got to show off his considerable passing talent in a balanced-to-pass heavy offense, Eli Manning was productive with a stable of young talents at WR. Joe Flacco had a couple of nice stretches where you could rely on him. If you doubled up on QB because you were one of the last teams to take one, chances are you got a viable QB, because Ben and Eli were often the "safe" pick to hedge a Ryan/Cutler/Garrard riskier QB1.
The preseason breakout candidates failed, but a few QBs came back from the dead. - Orton and Edwards never made the leap that some saw coming, but Brett Favre was a revelation, and both Alex Smith and Vince Young ended up being solid starts for most of the second half of the season.
There is no wrong strategy at QB, but depth will make waiting the best call in 2010 once again. - I dont blame you if you take Rodgers/Brees/Manning/Brady early. I don't blame you if take a Schaub/Rivers/Romo/McNabb when they fall to the 5th or 6th round. If Warner and Favre return, adding Big Ben and Eli will make 12 very solid QB options to start the season. Not to mention you can take a Cutler/Ryan as a backup in the next round. Flacco/Henne/VY/ASmith/Stafford/Freeman will all be backup picks with upside. Even if you don't hit on any picks, you'll likely get first choice of any WW QBs because so many people will be set at the position.
We were treated to a quiet year in terms of QB injuries. - Sure, Warner and Roeth missed a game. Ryan and McNabb missed a couple of games, too. Still, we didn't see any marquee QBs go down for extended periods, which is great for fantasy and great for the NFL. Perhaps it will make drafting a backup QB seem even less important in 2010 drafts, which will make the value extended even farther.
Look out for Matt Moore and Bruce Gradkowski next year. - Both revived sputtering passing games in the second half of the season, and both earned the chance to at least compete for the job in camp in 2010.Other thoughts on QB this year, especially how it will affect your approach to the position in 2010?

I agree with your synopsis if this year, but keep in mind that's exactly what it is, this year's. Next year we could do the same thing and the top Qb picks could be busts.Let me just say that I think Tom Brady is very close to a bad pick. He came up lame when it counted most in week 14 and 15. If you survived those weeks with him as your QB, you won despite Brady not because of him. He was God awful down the stretch IMO, not what you would want out of your 1st and 2nd round pick.

 

[Two Deep]

Rivers is legit.

Gradkowski goes back to the bench when Al signs Vick in the offseason.

Palmer was a let down again.

Flacco and Henne need receivers in order to take the next step in their developement.

 

[Tanner9919]

I love Brees....but man he killed me down the stretch....killed me. We needed elite numbers week 15-16 and it never came.

guys like brees, peyton manning et al will kill you towards the end of a 13-3, 14-2,15-1 season.thats why I'll never draft manning again - got burned years back because they rested final 3 weeks of season..

useless to have manning if he gets you to 12-0 and you lose next few games and you're one-n-done in playoffs because you have no decent backup QB who can come close to scoring what you'd get from manning..

it goes back to the jim kelly days..randall cunningham in minnesota...etc.

what I've learned is that Matt Moore is the real deal..

Matt Ryan had a year two like year one was supposed to be for a rookie..he flip-flopped his seasons..year 3 should be a dandy.

Flacco is still learning, but he's going to be a very good QB in the future, once they get some fresh legs at WR/TE

Matt Cassel represents good value relative to ADP for 2010..he's improving, the Chiefs are improving and will only get better.

Henne is the real deal..he's not a rookie so year 3, 2010, should be a good one.

If Detroit ever gets an o-line , and a starting RB ( Kevin Smith won't do) , Stafford is going to be something special..

Shaub is a top 5-ish QB...the days of drafting him in 3rd-4th round are over..

Sanchez has played better as a rookie than PEyton,Eli, Elway, Aikman et al...he's going to be a very good QB for years to come...

 

[Leroy Hoard]

I love Brees....but man he killed me down the stretch....killed me. We needed elite numbers week 15-16 and it never came.

guys like brees, peyton manning et al will kill you towards the end of a 13-3, 14-2,15-1 season.

This really is a good point you made here. It would seem what you would think will be a mid-level team would be where you want to go. Bottom dwellers might check out bench guys late in the season also.

 

[DarkManX]

Consistancy is the key ie. Peyton Manning.

 

[Tau837]

Dont undervalue experience. I went in planning on gertting 1 of these 3 Warner/Farve/Mcnabb cheap. Auction league. I got favre for 3 and Mcnabb for $11.00. I think Mcnabb is always overlooked as a upper tier FF QB, not sure why, but he seems to bring value every year. Dont underestimate match-ups. Revis hurt both #1 WR numbers, he also hurt QB numbers by taking away the #1 option.

I don't normally do this, but next year I will be taking a look at who the Jets play in week 14-16 when I start considering WR.......dude is just sick

CBs are incredibly volatile from year to year. I try to wait until I see a CB do it two-three years in a row before I start expecting it going forward.

This is the second year in a row for Revis. Using ProFootballFocus positional ratings, last year Revis was CB #3, this year he is CB #1.

 

[Tau837]

I love Brees....but man he killed me down the stretch....killed me. We needed elite numbers week 15-16 and it never came.

guys like brees, peyton manning et al will kill you towards the end of a 13-3, 14-2,15-1 season.

This really is a good point you made here. It would seem what you would think will be a mid-level team would be where you want to go. Bottom dwellers might check out bench guys late in the season also.

Sure, but who had the Saints as a 13-2 team back in preseason? Brees would have been considered safe under this theory.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

I love Brees....but man he killed me down the stretch....killed me. We needed elite numbers week 15-16 and it never came.

guys like brees, peyton manning et al will kill you towards the end of a 13-3, 14-2,15-1 season.

This really is a good point you made here. It would seem what you would think will be a mid-level team would be where you want to go. Bottom dwellers might check out bench guys late in the season also.

Sure, but who had the Saints as a 13-2 team back in preseason? Brees would have been considered safe under this theory.

True, but when they were 10-0 think what you could have got in a trade.

 

[coolnerd]

 

[Clifton]

Waiting and drafting Garrard late for your #1 is not a good idea.

 

[shredhead]

Waiting and drafting Garrard late for your #1 is not a good idea.

Wait, are you saying that the "perfect draft" article isn't so perfect? I've tried saying that for 2 years in a row now, and keep getting blasted for it on these boards! I did take Garrard as my backup in one league, and he was barely servicable as a backup.

 

[UnknownCoach]

The rules to protect QBs have gotten ridiculous. It might be good for fantasy owners but as a football fan I think it sucks. So many calls where there was no malicious intent and no real pain inflicted. Defenders need to be allowed to try to tackle the person with the football.

 

[The Dude]

No shame in picking a QB early - Brees, Manning, and Rodgers gave a great ROI. Brady had a rough stretch in the second half of the season, but he wasn't a bust of a 2nd/3rd round pick by any measure. The next four QBs off the board - Rivers, Warner, McNabb, Romo - were all fine everyweek starting options. If you took any of the consensus top eight QBs, you were happy with your pickOther thoughts on QB this year, especially how it will affect your approach to the position in 2010?

I would take this one step further. Not only is there no shame in it, it just might be the correct idea. There's so much risk in the top 10 RB's, it may be a better idea to go with a great QB of minimal risk - Manning, Brees, Rivers, Brady, Mcnabb (let's not get caught up in the names on the list).

Each one of those guys would have been a better pick thant S.Jackson, Forte, D.Williams, Slaton, Jacobs (and I am excluding the two with major injuries - Westbrook and Turner. That's half of your top 12 at RB.

The trick is in proactively identifying those with higher risk (generally the lower half of the top 12). Going in, I was very skeptical of most these guys - but I did think Williams and Jacobs would perform.

Everybody locks on RB. The smart thing is to evaluate the risk and decide when to buck the trend and go RB - even if everyone else in your league thinks you're nuts.

 

[Lord Fantasy]

Few more thoughts:

Beware of changing team philosophies: See Palmer/Roethlisberger for examples.

The addition of a young stud WR in the making can revive a QBs value: see Favre/Romo for examples



Pass heavy offense doesnt equal fantasy viability: See Hasselbeck, Cutler, Ryan for examples.

Great post. Great Series. Would also add that the right QB can put up great numbers in a more balanced offense as Rivers did this year.

 

[the spanker]

 

[robz0r]

QB by end of round 3.

No exceptions.

 

[32 Counter Pass]

There is no wrong strategy at QB, but depth will make waiting the best call in 2010 once again.

If you mean waiting for the last of the top eight or so elite guys, I agree with you. In years past I would feel pretty comfortable with a pair of borderline QB1s. Play matchups if one didn't separate himself. I think this year showed us two things - the number of elite QBs is growing from 3 or 4 to perhaps as many as a dozen. And these are young guys who don't appear to be going away anytime soon. Just look at these names:

Rodgers, Brees, Manning, Brady, Schaub, Rivers, Romo, Roetlisberger, McNabb, Eli, Palmer, Flacco, Ryan, Cutler

I have a hard time believing the first 8 don't finish top ten in some order, barring injury (by the way, why do you think QBs aren't getting injured anymore?? It's no coincidence).

In head to head leagues, you could get away with a mediocre quarterback when there were only 3 or 4 teams with elite quarterbacks. So what if a few guys were putting up 20-24 ppg when your guy was only good for 16. You had better players elsewhere to make up for it.

But here is the problem when the rest of the league is littered with these elite QBs and you don't have one (and I'll be looking at this in more depth in the offseason, this is just off the cuff). Nearly every week you'll be up against the potential of something ridiculous like 5 TDs or 500 yards. The kind of week that can singlehandedly wipe out a team. You'll catch Aaron Rodgers on a great week in week 1, then Manning in week 2, and before you know it, you're team is done. What I'm saying is, I believe in the current pass happy NFL, the lack of top end QB talent is no more. The gap between QB8 and QB12 is wider than ever. Meanwhile, it seems that the 20+ TD running backs that we saw at the start of the decade are hard to come by.

In this NFL, I don't want to be the first guy to take a QB - but I definitely don't want to be the last.

 

[MAC_32]

Don't be the guy drafting a QB in the first two rounds, but also don't be that guy waiting to take two just before the others start taking backups.

The best value this year was found in the 4th-6th round range, I think it will be next season too. There are a lot of great QB's now and a cliff-like dive after them. Be the drafter taking one of the last great ones to team with your army of studs in the first 3 rounds.

 

[Little Joe]

 

[SuperJohn96]

 

[zamboni]

Great post. Great Series. Would also add that the right QB can put up great numbers in a more balanced offense as Rivers did this year.

The Chargers were much more of a passing team this year due to LT's decline, but your point is well taken for an elite QB whose team's offense runs through them.That said, one thing to be wary of is the improvement on the defensive side of the ball. Palmer didn't have a good year, but part of it was the vast improvement in the Bengals' defense and, as mentioned, accordingly becoming more of a running team.It's less of an issue for the upper tier, but could still have a discernible impact. For example, early in the season, even Brees' numbers were suffering a bit when the defense was playing extremely well and not forcing him to air it out as much. We also saw it with Manning several years ago when the Colts' defense dominated.

 

[Tau837]

Great post. Great Series. Would also add that the right QB can put up great numbers in a more balanced offense as Rivers did this year.

The Chargers were much more of a passing team this year due to LT's decline, but your point is well taken for an elite QB whose team's offense runs through them.

Rivers was only #18 in passing attempts on the season, and the Chargers as a team were tied for #23 in passing attempts, while they were #19 in rushing attempts. So I think it's fair to call the Chargers a balanced offense in terms of playcalling, though it was unbalanced in terms of effectiveness.Imagine if Rivers got to throw as much as Manning, Brady, Favre, Rodgers, Cutler, Romo, Orton, and Schaub... they all attempted roughly 50-100 more passes - roughly 10% to 20% more passes - than Rivers did.

 

[zamboni]

Great post. Great Series. Would also add that the right QB can put up great numbers in a more balanced offense as Rivers did this year.

The Chargers were much more of a passing team this year due to LT's decline, but your point is well taken for an elite QB whose team's offense runs through them.

Rivers was only #18 in passing attempts on the season, and the Chargers as a team were tied for #23 in passing attempts, while they were #19 in rushing attempts. So I think it's fair to call the Chargers a balanced offense in terms of playcalling, though it was unbalanced in terms of effectiveness.Imagine if Rivers got to throw as much as Manning, Brady, Favre, Rodgers, Cutler, Romo, Orton, and Schaub... they all attempted roughly 50-100 more passes - roughly 10% to 20% more passes - than Rivers did.

Fair point - the offense clearly runs through Rivers now, but the numbers didn't quite bear it out. Unless the team gets a quality RB in there next year to replace LT, perhaps that passing proportion will noticeably rise.