What would you do with the #1 pick? (1 Viewer)

[32 Counter Pass]

Pulled the first pick in the FFPC main event (ppt, 1.5 ppr for TE).

Right now I am considering Gronk, Lacy, AB or DT.

Not considering Bell because no RB has repeat as the #1RB in consecutive years over the L10Y. Bell's 2 game suspension almost insures this streak will not be broken.

Not considering AP because over the L10Y only two RBs 28 yo or older at the start of have finished as top 5RB.

What would you do?

 

[tommyGunZ]

Seattle Def IMO

 

[32 Counter Pass]

Thanks!

 

[Run It Up]

Gronk, no regrets.

 

[DropKick]

Pulled the first pick in the FFPC main event (ppt, 1.5 ppr for TE).

Right now I am considering Gronk, Lacy, AB or DT.

Not considering Bell because no RB has repeat as the #1RB in consecutive years over the L10Y. Bell's 2 game suspension almost insures this streak will not be broken.

Not considering AP because over the L10Y only two RBs 28 yo or older at the start of have finished as top 5RB.

What would you do?

Bell...

I like him the most for weeks 3-16. You'll have another back to play for two weeks.

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

I hate having the top pick because you're going to be wrong 249/250 times. The safest, most surest pick with the highest ceiling is probably Julio Jones but that doesn't mean it's your best play.

 

[32 Counter Pass]

I like Bell too, but the tend says taking him at 1 would be overdrafting him. Also the FFPC regular season is only 11 weeks.

 

[32 Counter Pass]

I hate having the top pick because you're going to be wrong 249/250 times. The safest, most surest pick with the highest ceiling is probably Julio Jones but that doesn't mean it's your best play.

Yup, he is in the mix as well.

 

[Hankmoody]

I'd be secure with Gronkowski in a TE premium format.

 

[TripItUp]

Bell in most formats...would consider AP over Bell in larger leagues or leagues where fewer teams make the playoffs and regular season record has heightened importance.

 

[dickey moe]

I'd start a thread on FBG's about it.

 

[ghostguy123]

So if Bell ends up top 3 that isn't good enough?

 

[Deamon]

So if Bell ends up top 3 that isn't good enough?

Exactly. If you are expecting the top RB of the year by drafting a RB at #1, you have the totally wrong mindset. If you get top 3 RB production out of your #1 pick, that is a hit and a success. It's not "over drafting him". No one can predict who number one will be. "You don't win fantasy leagues with your first pick, but you can lose them"- We've all heard it before many times.

I'd go with Bell. I think he's a shoe in for top 5 rb production which I'd be happy as hell with. Other option I think is Gronk, only because I'm assuming you have to do really really REALLY good to win this thing. Go a bit of a more boom/bust guy. Bell would be my pick in a reg 12 team league 13 week season format though.

 

[ghostguy123]

Yeah, anybody hoping to land the top fantasy option with the number 1 pick simply needs to get overwhelmingly lucky. There are 30 legit guys who could be that player, and 10 others who could be that could be that player that we would never guess.

I am not even saying to take Bell, but to pass on the guy who was the tops scoring RB last year just because he was the top scoring RB last year is hilariously ridiculous.

 

[⚡DEADHEAD⚡]

At 1.5 ppc for te, Gronk is almost a no brainer here. Other picks, maybe you second guess yourself. With Gronk, you can sleep easy.

You could even consider Gronk at 1.1 without the extra half point.

There will be no greater delta between the #1 and #2 performers than te and Gronk's total points may put him in 6-10 of wrs.

 

[JohnnyU]

I would select Mike Trout.

 

[Mingooch]

Gronk

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Gronk or Charles would be my top choices in that format.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

I'd take Bell especially with the 1 game suspension reduced from 3.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I'd take Bell especially with the 1 game suspension reduced from 3.

2 game suspension.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

I'd take Bell especially with the 1 game suspension reduced from 3.

2 game suspension.

I heard on the radio it was dropped to one. I misunderstood. Still think I'd rather have Bell. He was on fire the second half of last season.

 

[32 Counter Pass]

Yeah, anybody hoping to land the top fantasy option with the number 1 pick simply needs to get overwhelmingly lucky. There are 30 legit guys who could be that player, and 10 others who could be that could be that player that we would never guess.

I am not even saying to take Bell, but to pass on the guy who was the tops scoring RB last year just because he was the top scoring RB last year is hilariously ridiculous.

30 legit guys, really? Don't see it myself.

Am I hoping to land the top fantasy option? Of course. My mindset is to win the whole enchilada. I guess that is bad.

It may be just as "hilariously ridiculous" to ignore trends, especially strong trends. I factor trends into my decision making. Guess that is bad as well.

 

[Bonfire]

I'd take it to the Assistant Coach forums where it belongs. But as these threads don't get moved anymore, make sure and ask us every pick with new threads!

 

[Freelove]

Yeah, anybody hoping to land the top fantasy option with the number 1 pick simply needs to get overwhelmingly lucky. There are 30 legit guys who could be that player, and 10 others who could be that could be that player that we would never guess.

I am not even saying to take Bell, but to pass on the guy who was the tops scoring RB last year just because he was the top scoring RB last year is hilariously ridiculous.

30 legit guys, really? Don't see it myself.

Welcome to fantasy football, home of Odell Beckham, Josh Gordon, Dalton Hilliard, Kurt Warner, and fresh-from-prison Michael Vick!

If you don't see 30 guys with the potential to become the most valuable FF commodity this year, you ain't lookin' very hard. And as history says: no matter how many you see, there's more.

 

[ImTheScientist]

Odell Beckham.

 

[NajehHejan]

Can we treat this as strategy discussion aka the official 2nd pick, official 3rd pick threads? Don't see why this has to be AC fodder.

This is probably the worst year to have #1. Don't trust Charles for some reason. Bell suspension is tough to swallow. I'm leaning AP or Gronk. Probably AP.

 

[whiskey7]

At 1.5 ppc for te, Gronk is almost a no brainer here. Other picks, maybe you second guess yourself. With Gronk, you can sleep easy.

You could even consider Gronk at 1.1 without the extra half point.

There will be no greater delta between the #1 and #2 performers than te and Gronk's total points may put him in 6-10 of wrs.

He is a monster producer but (btwn injury history and missing his HOF QB for 4 games to start the season) I am not sure how anyone can really sleep easy picking him 1.1.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

I would select Mike Trout.

Fish is ok, but right now I could go for a box of donuts.

 

[mquinnjr]

Trade it.

 

[Freelove]

I might also consider Peterson on my perceived notion that a couple hot games to start the season would raise his trade value higher than it would for pretty much anyone else. Anyone about whom there exists a "He's not human" meme isn't going to be valued rationally by your competitors. I sincerely believe if he and Lacy are both sitting at exactly 250/3 through two weeks, Peterson commands significantly more in a trade.

 

[Bucky86]

Gates and Finley in the 2nd

 

[eoMMan]

Sack up and pick a player you like.

Regarding Bell, the two missed games is brutal. Avoid.

 

[Long Ball Larry]

Not considering Bell because no RB has repeat as the #1RB in consecutive years over the L10Y. Bell's 2 game suspension almost insures this streak will not be broken.

Going back to 2000, the following guys have repeated: Faulk, Holmes, Alexander, Tomlinson (at least according to fantasy points on PFR).

Peterson was in the top 5 in 5 out of 6 years. Foster in 4 out of 5. Lynch 4 years in a row.

There are clearly cases to be made for the guys that you listed, but using that data point seems strange. I can understand not wanting to miss 2 games out of 11, but I don't see any relevance at all of a number 1 RB not repeating in the past 10 years.

 

[Squintz82]

Gronk or AP

 

[Dan Lambskin]

Pass like a true Hawk would

:hawkscreech:

 

[DocHolliday]

At 1.5 ppc for te, Gronk is almost a no brainer here. Other picks, maybe you second guess yourself. With Gronk, you can sleep easy.

You could even consider Gronk at 1.1 without the extra half point.

There will be no greater delta between the #1 and #2 performers than te and Gronk's total points may put him in 6-10 of wrs.

This makes sense.

 

[spider321]

Yeah, anybody hoping to land the top fantasy option with the number 1 pick simply needs to get overwhelmingly lucky. There are 30 legit guys who could be that player, and 10 others who could be that could be that player that we would never guess.

I am not even saying to take Bell, but to pass on the guy who was the tops scoring RB last year just because he was the top scoring RB last year is hilariously ridiculous.

30 legit guys, really? Don't see it myself.

Am I hoping to land the top fantasy option? Of course. My mindset is to win the whole enchilada. I guess that is bad.

It may be just as "hilariously ridiculous" to ignore trends, especially strong trends. I factor trends into my decision making. Guess that is bad as well.

Your thought process is all wrong, Counter. You don't need the guy with the most total points for the season, you need the top scoring guy for weeks 12 thru 14(or whatever your playoff weeks are).

Le'Veon Bell is a good bet to be that guy.

 

[msudaisy26]

Yeah, anybody hoping to land the top fantasy option with the number 1 pick simply needs to get overwhelmingly lucky. There are 30 legit guys who could be that player, and 10 others who could be that could be that player that we would never guess.

I am not even saying to take Bell, but to pass on the guy who was the tops scoring RB last year just because he was the top scoring RB last year is hilariously ridiculous.

30 legit guys, really? Don't see it myself.

Am I hoping to land the top fantasy option? Of course. My mindset is to win the whole enchilada. I guess that is bad.

It may be just as "hilariously ridiculous" to ignore trends, especially strong trends. I factor trends into my decision making. Guess that is bad as well.

You know what happens when you worry about silly little things like how many times in the last ten years a player has finished number 1 at running back in consecutive years? You over think every single pick and free agent and finish in 9th. Sorry I took all the mystery out of your season.

 

[Caesar]

Can we treat this as strategy discussion aka the official 2nd pick, official 3rd pick threads? Don't see why this has to be AC fodder.

This is probably the worst year to have #1. Don't trust Charles for some reason. Bell suspension is tough to swallow. I'm leaning AP or Gronk. Probably AP.

This. And I also have a #1 pick, so I am still trying to figure out which one of these I will take. preseason might make that decision for me.

 

[spider321]

...preseason might make that decision for me.

Lol

 

[Carl Eller's Dead Liver]

Sell it for a free league buy in to anyone picking late who's interested

 

[BigDave]

I'm going Bell #1 in a 12 team non ppr.

Everyone forgets you will be starting another RB for 2 games plus Bell's high production afterwards > everyone else

 

[msudaisy26]

I'm going Bell #1 in a 12 team non ppr.

Everyone forgets you will be starting another RB for 2 games plus Bell's high production afterwards > everyone else

Nope, Bell was the number one back last year in PPR, so he won't be number one this year, so he is worthless, so you lose.

 

[32 Counter Pass]

I'm going Bell #1 in a 12 team non ppr.

Everyone forgets you will be starting another RB for 2 games plus Bell's high production afterwards > everyone else

Nope, Bell was the number one back last year in PPR, so he won't be number one this year, so he is worthless, so you lose.

What a tool. Your comprehension skills need work.

 

[msudaisy26]

I'm going Bell #1 in a 12 team non ppr.

Everyone forgets you will be starting another RB for 2 games plus Bell's high production afterwards > everyone else

Nope, Bell was the number one back last year in PPR, so he won't be number one this year, so he is worthless, so you lose.

What a tool. Your comprehension skills need work.

Says the guy that has over 2000 posts, but can't comprehend that this question shouldn't be in the Shark Pool.

 

[bagger]

PPR I would take Antonio Brown.

 

[HurryUpSundays]

I'm going Bell #1 in a 12 team non ppr.

Everyone forgets you will be starting another RB for 2 games plus Bell's high production afterwards > everyone else

Nope, Bell was the number one back last year in PPR, so he won't be number one this year, so he is worthless, so you lose.

What a tool. Your comprehension skills need work.

Says the guy that has over 2000 posts, but can't comprehend that this question shouldn't be in the Shark Pool.

You're close to seven thousand in two years, try really hard to be cute and funny in most of them, and fail miserably.

Agreed this doesn't belong in the the AC forum. Good information is accumulating here.

In that format I'd go Gronk and then the best available RB + WR at your turnaround.

 

[Bri]

Well I guess you can't trade it.

For big $ I wouldn't take Gronk. Injuries concern me too much. As does Brady's propensity to not play in preseason and consider weeks 1-3 or 4 preseason for him.

I would consider how your draft is going to play out. What was it like last year? All these type leagues? Will RB or WR be "gone" by the time it gets to you?

If so I'd be plenty comfy with top RB or top WR. Calvin, Green, Jones, Beckham...is Brown the only top flight WR that hasn't missed time? On the surface that's much too early, but do some mocks doing this and see how it plays out. Don't act like your first is "everything" and it's your whole season. It's one player.

The last pick in the second is not any less difficult.

Once you hit round 5, the first spot can feel like the driver's seat. IMO it changes from thinking ugh on every pick, to some sort of comfort zone.

You've gotta do a bunch of mocks

11 is not 17. You have to do a real good scan of the schedule and makes your own SOS.

I like QB WR combos in short season formats.

For 11 games, I'd probably mock trying to reasonably get TY and Luck.

The Dolphins might get ya there but their schedule gets rough. First half and second half seem like easy and difficult.

 

[Bri]

Not considering Bell because no RB has repeat as the #1RB in consecutive years over the L10Y. Bell's 2 game suspension almost insures this streak will not be broken.

Going back to 2000, the following guys have repeated: Faulk, Holmes, Alexander, Tomlinson (at least according to fantasy points on PFR).

Peterson was in the top 5 in 5 out of 6 years. Foster in 4 out of 5. Lynch 4 years in a row.

There are clearly cases to be made for the guys that you listed, but using that data point seems strange. I can understand not wanting to miss 2 games out of 11, but I don't see any relevance at all of a number 1 RB not repeating in the past 10 years.

I wouldn't pick anyone (about) out of football for a year. I think the world of ADP but who knows what the year off did.

 

[Bri]

At 1.5 ppc for te, Gronk is almost a no brainer here. Other picks, maybe you second guess yourself. With Gronk, you can sleep easy.

You could even consider Gronk at 1.1 without the extra half point.

There will be no greater delta between the #1 and #2 performers than te and Gronk's total points may put him in 6-10 of wrs.

Gronk has 82 for 1124 and 12 TDs

Olsen had 84 for 1008 and 6 TDs

This week the Panthers only other real receiving threat went down to an ACL injury and in 2015 they'll start yet another rook as their only other receiving threat.

it is not a stretch to project a few more TDs, nor for Gronk to miss some time

The year before last, Gronk only played in 7 games while Olsen is a rock

The gap between Gronk and Olsen is all you mention but Olsen's ADP is round 5. The gap is relative to players picked at comparable times so you really need to compare 1st and 5th versus 1st and 5th

Bell and Olsen is far superior to Spiller and Gronk IMO.

Spiller is a 5th round RB

Antonio and Olsen is also far superior to Gronk and Allen Robinson IMO.

Robinson is a 5th round WR