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If Jones-Drew falls I doubt it will have anything to do with mileage and everything to do with supporting cast.
Nevertheless, I think he's the riskiest of the top 4. In fact, I'd take Gore over him this year.
This post needs a heavy dose of critical thinking.
The mileage is piling up? The guy is 25 and last year was the first season he's had more than 200 carries.If you are going STRICTLY on workload from last season or overall then the answers are easy. CJ2K had the biggest workload last year and ADP has the biggest workload overall. But I think that is a silly and arbitrary thing to use.All 4 are young guys with relatively low mileage. Of course they likely won't finish top 4 because something crazy always happens. But barring significant injury I think all 4 will finish top 10 and will not "bust."
I should clarify that he's got the most mileage of all these guys. Piling up was probably a bit much..
Well, he has the most touches of all 4 guys because he has been in the league longer. But he has less carries than Peterson which is the most important factor when looking at mileage on a RB b/c receptions don't take the same toll on the body.He has averaged less touches per season than CJ and ADP. And though he has been in the league a year longer he is actually 2 days Younger than ADP. Again, I think determining who is gonna bust from this group based strictly on workload is kind of pointless. We are talking about a group of RBs who are 25 and younger and none of whom have more than 2- 300 carry seasons on them.
If he were a bit older I'd say yes, but I think he'll be fine. Besides, he never seems to take the punishment that a lot of other backs do.
Not me. If he were an older guy or had a different running style then it probably would. But he's going into his 3rd year and despite the high volume of touches he doesn't seem to take many big or direct hits. Plus the fact that he didn't play in the post season gave him a few additional weeks of rest. Not to mention I think he held out of most of the off season stuff. Injuries can happen to anyone at anytime. It's football. But none of these 4 guys worry me from a "workload" standpoint. If one did then it would probably be ADP who has averaged the most carries over his 3 years in the league, has some injury history from college, and is the most physical runner of the 4. But again, I am not concerned about any of these guys based on workload or mileage.
This is more what I was thinking when I asked the question. I realize it is entirely possible none of them get injured, but Johnson does concern me due to the incredible number of touches he had last year. MJD as well as he has never carried this large a load before.
yes..I think that ,and the the stats of 2k yard-RB's in season N+1 means 'proceed with caution' in regards to CJ..I just have a feeling that he's going to bust relative to his ADP..remember, Kordell had a good year or two,then fizzled. but Kordell >>>> VY...we're ready to see VY implode any day now...you know teams will find ways to stop CJ (or limit him) and put pressure on VY to win games with his arm..I'm not so sure he can.
if you want guaranteed return on investment, select Michael Turner, Ray Rice, ADP..if you want to swing for the fences, select CJ
1. I got the feeling that you were fishing a bit and going in this direction. I kind of knew that you were posting mostly about Chris Johnson.2. Jeff, I think he was able to get some rest since then.
3. Is there any definite proof that lots of carries one year = injury the next. My guess that any data supporting this would be coincidence and from a super small sample size.
What do you consider a bust? If he is drafted #1 overall but ends up at #5, do you think thats a bust? How much of a % in production are you expecting from him?
In PPR leagues this isn't bad for Ray Rice owners. This means they will need to score to keep up. Instead of keeping Rice fresh running McGahee in the 4th when they are up, Rice will be asked to be in the game because of his versatility in the passing game and still be a threat on the ground.
2. Jeff, I think he was able to get some rest since then.
The high number of carries would worry me if a guy of CJ's size was plowing into defenders like Peterson has a habit of doing. But CJ tends to run around them instead. He doesn't have to repeat a 2,000 yard season. He has a lot of room for his numbers to go down and still be a Top 5 back and a safe pick. And while Vince Young will never be as good as even Steve McNair, he's enough of a run threat to boost CJ's effectiveness when he's on the field.
Chris Johnson had the 7th most carries over games 9-16 since the league went to a 16 game schedule. 23 other backs have had at least 200 carries over the final 8 games of a regular season.Here are there averages the next year:1. I got the feeling that you were fishing a bit and going in this direction. I kind of knew that you were posting mostly about Chris Johnson.2. Jeff, I think he was able to get some rest since then.
3. Is there any definite proof that lots of carries one year = injury the next. My guess that any data supporting this would be coincidence and from a super small sample size.
I'm not sure I follow this logic. Because VY isn't a great passer, but is a threat to run with the ball, he boosts Johnson's effectiveness? How so?2. Jeff, I think he was able to get some rest since then.
The high number of carries would worry me if a guy of CJ's size was plowing into defenders like Peterson has a habit of doing. But CJ tends to run around them instead. He doesn't have to repeat a 2,000 yard season. He has a lot of room for his numbers to go down and still be a Top 5 back and a safe pick. And while Vince Young will never be as good as even Steve McNair, he's enough of a run threat to boost CJ's effectiveness when he's on the field.
More threats = more for defenses to worry about. That's generally what I meant.
It is closer than you probably think:Maurice Jones-Drew:842 carries over 4 seasons: 210.5 avg/season201 receptions over 4 seasons: 50.25 avg/season1043 touches over 4 seasons: 260.75 avg/seasonAdrian Peterson:915 carries over 3 seasons: 305 avg/season83 receptions over 3 seasons: 27.67 avg/season998 touches over 3 seasons: 332.67 avg/seasonOnly 45 more touches than ADP in one more season, or approximately 2 games worth. If you want to go on wear & tear, I would say that ADP has more built up wear over the past 3 seasons than MJD has in the past 4. Not to mention, his smaller, more compact frame more likely absorbs hits better than ADPs larger frame.
I cant see this having a huge effect. Most of the time when VY runs, the play was called as a pass play. so once it gets to that point where he runs the ball, he is not taking away from the carries of any RB on the team.I can see them running maybe one play every second game(on average) where VY runs the ball on a designed play to take advantage of his running abilities, but I cannot see this drastically cutting into CJ's productivity in any huge way.
I agree.
It's not frighteningly consistent, it's intellectually dishonest (or at least, the "studies" which have shown 370 is some kind of magic number are). There is no sane reason to believe that it's just fine to have 368 or 369 carries, but if you hit 370 you're toast. But if you include backs who had 368+ carries in the analysis, the results go completely out the window. The guys who did the study knew that, so they're basically lying to you.I don't think there's any physical reason to believe that physical activity done eight months ago is likely to lead to injury after an eight month break.
If you subscribe to this thinking, then there's also no physical reason to believe that a back over 30 y/o should suffer any loss of performance. Afterall, they get an 8 month break after each season and 30 is just an arbitrary number.Workload has an effect on these guys. Period.CalBear said:
That doesn't follow at all. It is not exactly news that human bodies experience physiological changes as they get older.
If you believe this, you should be heartened to know that the "Magic 370" study would suggest that Chris Johnson is just fine, since he only got 358 carries. (Of course this is nonsense; 12 more carries wouldn't have made a difference, any more than 2 more carries would have made a difference to Earl Campbell in 1979).
Actually, the formula is carries plus receptions divided by 2. So Johnson's # is 383. If you don't put any stock into that number, that's fine. I choose to do so.And the changes the human body goes through between the age of 25 and 30 are relatively minor. Why is the difference in performance in these ages so drastic then?
NFL careers are short because of injuries and the contract structure. But I guarantee you that a RB who gets 300+ carries at age 25 is more likely to be productive at age 30 than an RB who gets 50 carries at age 25.
You're putting stock in that number even though there's no evidence to do so. For every example that supports your conclusion there's one that doesn't. There isn't in any way, shape, or form any statistical evidence to support the notion that a high workload in one year has the proposed effect in the next.And there absolutely is a difference between 25 and 30 year old professional athletes trying to perform at an elite level and the evidence suggests that it isn't minor. It's why there are only a handful of 33 year old running backs who have put up fantasy relevant seasons, suggesting that the decline of physical ability necessary for running backs occurs by the time they get to be around 30 depending on the back.
This post deserves more attention. I think running style needs to be discussed more than just number of carries. Go watch how Marion Barber runs and then watch someone like Chris Johnson. Chris Johnson takes a lot less contact, imo.LittlePhatty said:3nOut said:2. Jeff, I think he was able to get some rest since then.The high number of carries would worry me if a guy of CJ's size was plowing into defenders like Peterson has a habit of doing. But CJ tends to run around them instead. He doesn't have to repeat a 2,000 yard season. He has a lot of room for his numbers to go down and still be a Top 5 back and a safe pick. And while Vince Young will never be as good as even Steve McNair, he's enough of a run threat to boost CJ's effectiveness when he's on the field.
Your right. This is very relevant and a good observation I hadn't considered, though I had considered A. Peterson's very aggressive style of running where he often does not shy away from contact. So Peterson's 300+ carry season could wear on him more than a C. Johnson 300+ carry season from this viewpoint. The posts going back and forth on the theory of "the curse of 370" are very interesting as I have only seen articles and studies that support this theory. Does anyone know of any articles or studies that contradict this theory?This post deserves more attention. I think running style needs to be discussed more than just number of carries. Go watch how Marion Barber runs and then watch someone like Chris Johnson. Chris Johnson takes a lot less contact, imo.LittlePhatty said:3nOut said:2. Jeff, I think he was able to get some rest since then.
MJD is a brick house, Johnson is not. History does not favor Johnson to repeat his success of last year
Based on last nights rotation McGahee won't get that many touches barring injury.
Missed that part lol, but workload question was ridiculous and couldn't really be answered seriously. My answer was much more useful.cr8f said:
