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Who is this year's Jimmy Graham? (1 Viewer)

E

Eminence

Footballguy
I don't believe that Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham and once in a generation athletes that are changing the Tight End position. I think they are products of a changing game. With that said, I think it's easy to assume that more Tight Ends will break out this year.

Avoiding Graham and Gronkowski in the first / second allows you to get key players at RB, WR, QB. If you can combine these players with the Jimmy Graham's of this year, the guys who won't cost you an arm or a leg but will produce similiary; you will have a very successful Fantasy Football season.

Short list:

Rob Housler

Jordan Cameron

Kyle Rudolph

Jared Cook

Dwayne Allen

Future potential:

Ladarius Green

Michael Egnew

Get the breakout guy BEFORE he breaks out, not after.

 
'Eminence said:
I don't believe that Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham and once in a generation athletes that are changing the Tight End position. I think they are products of a changing game. With that said, I think it's easy to assume that more Tight Ends will break out this year.

Avoiding Graham and Gronkowski in the first / second allows you to get key players at RB, WR, QB. If you can combine these players with the Jimmy Graham's of this year, the guys who won't cost you an arm or a leg but will produce similiary; you will have a very successful Fantasy Football season.

Short list:

Rob Housler

Jordan Cameron

Kyle Rudolph

Jared Cook

Dwayne Allen

Future potential:

Ladarius Green

Michael Egnew

Get the breakout guy BEFORE he breaks out, not after.
Click to expand...
I think you're selling Gronk and Graham a little bit short. And you also have to factor in how good Brady and Brees are.It's fine to have a discussion about TEs that will break out but I don't think anyone from that list or anywhere else is gonna approach the numbers those 2 guys put up last year. Not for a little while anyway.

 
Are any off those guys on the "short list" playing in a spread offense where they'll line up in the slot? If not, you can pretty much cross them all off the list.

Don't see anyone making that type of leap this year unless it's on a team that is as devoted to the pass as the Pats/Saints.

 
'Eminence said:
I don't believe that Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham and once in a generation athletes that are changing the Tight End position. I think they are products of a changing game. With that said, I think it's easy to assume that more Tight Ends will break out this year.

Avoiding Graham and Gronkowski in the first / second allows you to get key players at RB, WR, QB. If you can combine these players with the Jimmy Graham's of this year, the guys who won't cost you an arm or a leg but will produce similiary; you will have a very successful Fantasy Football season.

Short list:

Rob Housler

Jordan Cameron

Kyle Rudolph

Jared Cook

Dwayne Allen

Future potential:

Ladarius Green

Michael Egnew

Get the breakout guy BEFORE he breaks out, not after.
Click to expand...
Jared Cook has the most potential to have Jimmy Graham like numbers based on his last few games last year... however, this depends on how much better Jake Locker gets this year, and how much better the TN offense is.. which are huge ???'s

Jacob Tamme has the potential to be a top 5 TE based on his history with Peyton Manning, and the numbers he put up the year that Dallas Clark was out for half of the year

 
'VaTerp said:
'Eminence said:
I don't believe that Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham and once in a generation athletes that are changing the Tight End position. I think they are products of a changing game. With that said, I think it's easy to assume that more Tight Ends will break out this year.

Avoiding Graham and Gronkowski in the first / second allows you to get key players at RB, WR, QB. If you can combine these players with the Jimmy Graham's of this year, the guys who won't cost you an arm or a leg but will produce similiary; you will have a very successful Fantasy Football season.

Short list:

Rob Housler

Jordan Cameron

Kyle Rudolph

Jared Cook

Dwayne Allen

Future potential:

Ladarius Green

Michael Egnew

Get the breakout guy BEFORE he breaks out, not after.
Click to expand...
I think you're selling Gronk and Graham a little bit short. And you also have to factor in how good Brady and Brees are.It's fine to have a discussion about TEs that will break out but I don't think anyone from that list or anywhere else is gonna approach the numbers those 2 guys put up last year. Not for a little while anyway.
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Jacob Tamme will finish near top 5 TE and gates will have a great comeback year. (Nobody else to throw to!)

 
Lance Kendricks? Look at Rams other options - Amendola, Smith and rookies. And I think about Keller's role with Schottenheimer. I like Kendricks as TE2 with big upside.

Also been beating the Rudolph drum for awhile, too. My concern with him is that he is so tied to Ponder, and I'm not totally sold on Ponder.

Not sure if those guys for your premise exactly, but those are TEs I can see greatly outperforming draft position.

 
'mizat000 said:
'VaTerp said:
'Eminence said:
I don't believe that Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham and once in a generation athletes that are changing the Tight End position. I think they are products of a changing game. With that said, I think it's easy to assume that more Tight Ends will break out this year.

Avoiding Graham and Gronkowski in the first / second allows you to get key players at RB, WR, QB. If you can combine these players with the Jimmy Graham's of this year, the guys who won't cost you an arm or a leg but will produce similiary; you will have a very successful Fantasy Football season.

Short list:

Rob Housler

Jordan Cameron

Kyle Rudolph

Jared Cook

Dwayne Allen

Future potential:

Ladarius Green

Michael Egnew

Get the breakout guy BEFORE he breaks out, not after.
Click to expand...
I think you're selling Gronk and Graham a little bit short. And you also have to factor in how good Brady and Brees are.It's fine to have a discussion about TEs that will break out but I don't think anyone from that list or anywhere else is gonna approach the numbers those 2 guys put up last year. Not for a little while anyway.
Click to expand...
Jacob Tamme will finish near top 5 TE and gates will have a great comeback year. (Nobody else to throw to!)
Click to expand...
Thomas and Decker might have something to say about that.Tamme gets a lot of love but I'm not sold. Not saying that he can't have a breakout year but I don't expect top 5 and even if he's close I don't think he sniffs Graham/Gronk status.

Receptions are one thing but look at the yards and TDs those guys put up. They had really special seasons at the TE position. To just say they're not that special and expect other guys to put up similar production.....ehh.... I just don't see it.

ETA- I see you were talking about Gates with nobody else to throw to. I agree. I really like Gates as the 3rd TE off the board this year. I had him in 2010 when he was on his way to a truly special season before the foot issues.

 
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I don't know that there are Gronks and Grahams this year. It wasn't hard to see Gronk and/or Graham as possible breakout candidates (there were tons of articles on and tons of buzz about both guys). Both guys had done something to generate buzz already, and were in situations where their workloads looked to expand. But it isn't every year you get breakout candidates on offenses that ALSO have a legitimate shot to be legendarily prolific.

This year, as long as you're not married to TE, you could consider Brandon Lloyd one of these guys. Great hands, familiarity with the offense, should be operating in a part of the field where he's going to get the lion's share of the work, and oh yeah, his QB is a legit 5000/50 threat. Obviously though, only has so much upside, since he's already targeted fairly high.

I posted earlier that I see Malcolm Floyd having this kind of "radical leap upward" potential. He went from a situation of uncertainty in SD's WR depth chart, to one of relative certainty with the injury to Brown. He's got good rapport with Rivers, and this passing offense puts up huge numbers annually. Could realistically double a lot of the projections I've seen for him.

Among TE's, there are only two guys I see who have a history of doing pretty well with what they've been given, AND are in position where their workloads might legitimately expand...where history also says that workload might expand to pretty huge dimensions.

Greg Olson is one. I can't honestly say I'm a huge believer. BUT, Olson + Shockey combined made for some pretty awesome numbers, AND defenses seem to have learned to take the over-the-top stuff away from Cam, so the short game may even expand this year, AND of course Shockey's gone. I don't think Olson has Gronkish upside, but I could easily see him moving into the tier right below that.

The other is Pettigrew. Obviously plays on a ridiculous pass offense. And is frequently the Lions' clear cut #2 option. Had a strange disappearing act for a month in the middle of last season, which brutalized what would otherwise have been really awesome year-long totals. Can he get his head screwed on and bring it every week? Early in the preseason, it looks like Stafford still has confidence in him. He doesn't need to take a huge step up...just needs to stay focused and healthy. If he does, he just might be able to hold off Titus Young as the 2nd biggest target hog on the team, and 1000/8-ish numbers aren't out of the question.

Of all the other good bets late at TE, there aren't any where you won't be relying on significant growth or situation shifting if they're going to emerge. Gresham would have to improve...Kendricks would have to improve...Fleener would be a shot in the dark with no supporting history...for Tamme, you'd have to believe in Manning (which I don't)...Davis and RG3 have no history...Cook would need a huge and unexpected spike in targets...etc.

 
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First you need to identify the stronger passing offenses. If I had to pick 2 guys that will for sure exceed their draft position at TE it's Pettigrew and Martellus Bennett.

 
The two headed monster of Olsen and Shockey put up 152 targets, 82 rec, 995 yds and 9 TD's in 2011. Kinda reminds me of the 2010 season when Graham and Shockey were eating into each others numbers. Shockey has left the building. Olsen isn't on the talent level of Graham but he's looking at increased opportunity. Newton is no Brees, but Olsen is THE value pick at TE this year.

 
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'Newmancrew said:
The two headed monster of Olsen and Shockey put up 152 targets, 82 rec, 995 yds and 9 TD's in 2011. Kinda reminds me of the 2010 season when Graham and Shockey were eating into each others numbers. Newton is no Brees but Olsen is THE value pick at TE this year.
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I like Olsen but Tolbert greatly tempers my expectations for a huge spike. Coaching staff has said that Tolbert was brought in to replace Shockey, and I think he'll be a factor receiving and rushing.
 
'VaTerp said:
I think you're selling Gronk and Graham a little bit short. And you also have to factor in how good Brady and Brees are.It's fine to have a discussion about TEs that will break out but I don't think anyone from that list or anywhere else is gonna approach the numbers those 2 guys put up last year. Not for a little while anyway.
Click to expand...
:goodposting: Gronk and Graham are pretty damn special. You can't discount that fact first and foremost. Teams will attempt to copy the patriots game, I've been harping on about this since Gronk and hernandez were rooks. The problem is athleticism doesn't always translate into great hands as well. Then you have to have a supporting cast and a system in place to utilize those talents. Look at the top TEs and look at the QBs. I don't think a guy like Kendricks will ever get there because Bradford either doesn't have time with that line or isn't good enough. My best bet for this year but is still somewhat expensive. Pettigrew. For the future I like Allen and DJ Williams.
 
'griff321 said:
'VaTerp said:
I think you're selling Gronk and Graham a little bit short. And you also have to factor in how good Brady and Brees are.

It's fine to have a discussion about TEs that will break out but I don't think anyone from that list or anywhere else is gonna approach the numbers those 2 guys put up last year. Not for a little while anyway.
Click to expand...
:goodposting: Gronk and Graham are pretty damn special. You can't discount that fact first and foremost. Teams will attempt to copy the patriots game, I've been harping on about this since Gronk and hernandez were rooks. The problem is athleticism doesn't always translate into great hands as well. Then you have to have a supporting cast and a system in place to utilize those talents. Look at the top TEs and look at the QBs. I don't think a guy like Kendricks will ever get there because Bradford either doesn't have time with that line or isn't good enough.

My best bet for this year but is still somewhat expensive. Pettigrew.

For the future I like Allen and DJ Williams.
Click to expand...
Very good point. In Gronk and Graham you have two guys who have rare combinations of size, athleticism, and skill. There are more athletic guys at the TE position than ever but they don't all stand 6'7 with the agility, hands, and other skills these two have.Secondly, they are both playing with HOF QBs in offenses that maximize their strengths. So are they generational players? Well its way too early to say but I think they are rare enough talents in rare enough situations that you cant just casually say who's the next one like this.

Are they worth where they are going in drafts this year? If they put up numbers similar to last year then the answer is yes. In terms of catches, yardage, ypc, and TDs these guys basically had the 2 greatest statistical seasons in the history of the position based on my quick research. Antonio Gates in 2010 was on pace for this type of year but of course was derailed by his foot injury.

Look at some of the best TEs of all time and they really don't come close to having seasons like Gronk and Graham did last year. To me what is really impressive is the ypc at that volume of receptions and also the double digit TDs. Winslow Sr basically has one season that is in the same ballpark and that was 11 less receptions than Graham and two less TDs. Shannon Sharpe had a 72 catch season with a very impressive 15 ypc but only had 3 TDs that year. And he only had more than 5 TDs 4 times in a 14 year career. Jackie Smith had a great season in 1967 averaging over 21 ypc on 56 rec. and 9 TDs in 14 games. But again, in terms of overall receptions, yards, ypc, and TDs these two guys put up VERY special years. Historic years. The two best years statistically in the history of the position by a decent margin. It's why they are being taken in the first two rounds of drafts which prior to this year was UNHEARD of for a TE.

It's fine if you don't think they are worth their ADP either because they are unlikely to repeat those numbers or even if as the OP suggested the league is changing and more and more TEs will put up big numbers. But I don't think that properly appreciates what these guys did last year.

So looking for value at the TE spot is one thing. Finding "this year's Jimmy Graham" is another thing entirely. And if you're looking for that kind of production outside of Foxboro or New Orleans, I seriously doubt you're gonna find it.

 
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This will be the year of the Finley. No running game. Best QB in the game. Defensive focus on the WR's. And he is Finley...that can't be said enough.

 
Basically you are asking who are the TEs on offenses capable of passing for 4500-5000 yards.

Excluding NE and NO you have

1. Green Bay - That's right, bump Finley.

2. Detriot - Pettigrew

3. SD - Gates

4. Denver - Tamme

5. Atlanta - Gonzo

6. NYG - Bennent

 
I really think Antonio Gates is the play here. I completely understand that he is not someone that is flying under the radar. However, there may be a considerable drop off in perception here based on age and two consecutive seasons dealing with the Plantar Fasciatis. Some people may be down on him, because they paid too much for him the past 2 years. I've been really anticipating a huge come back season and the Vincent Brown news only solidifies it further. You could easily end up with the top TE at year's end without having the first or second round price tag.

 
'BassNBrew said:
Basically you are asking who are the TEs on offenses capable of passing for 4500-5000 yards.Excluding NE and NO you have1. Green Bay - That's right, bump Finley.2. Detriot - Pettigrew3. SD - Gates4. Denver - Tamme5. Atlanta - Gonzo6. NYG - Bennent
Click to expand...
:goodposting: Although Gates' current ADP is much higher than Graham/Gronkowski's was last year, so he's disqualified. I also like Rudolph and Jared Cook to have that kind potential for dynasty leagues.
 
'Time Kibitzer said:
'Raider Nation said:
'HairySasquatch said:
This will be the year of the Finley. No running game. Best QB in the game. Defensive focus on the WR's. And he is Finley...that can't be said enough.
Click to expand...
How is any of what you wrote different from last year?
Click to expand...
It's not, but I still think he has the best mix of talent and situation of any TE you can draft in round 6 or later to jump into the Graham/Gronkowski top tier :shrug:
Click to expand...
That's fine. But it was presented as "This will be the year of the Finley" as if something changed from last year.Hopefully he bought new hands in the offseason.

 
'BassNBrew said:
Basically you are asking who are the TEs on offenses capable of passing for 4500-5000 yards.Excluding NE and NO you have1. Green Bay - That's right, bump Finley.2. Detriot - Pettigrew3. SD - Gates4. Denver - Tamme5. Atlanta - Gonzo6. NYG - Bennent
Click to expand...
Carolina?
 
'VaTerp said:
'Eminence said:
I don't believe that Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham and once in a generation athletes that are changing the Tight End position. I think they are products of a changing game. With that said, I think it's easy to assume that more Tight Ends will break out this year.

Avoiding Graham and Gronkowski in the first / second allows you to get key players at RB, WR, QB. If you can combine these players with the Jimmy Graham's of this year, the guys who won't cost you an arm or a leg but will produce similiary; you will have a very successful Fantasy Football season.

Short list:

Rob Housler

Jordan Cameron

Kyle Rudolph

Jared Cook

Dwayne Allen

Future potential:

Ladarius Green

Michael Egnew

Get the breakout guy BEFORE he breaks out, not after.
Click to expand...
I think you're selling Gronk and Graham a little bit short. And you also have to factor in how good Brady and Brees are.It's fine to have a discussion about TEs that will break out but I don't think anyone from that list or anywhere else is gonna approach the numbers those 2 guys put up last year. Not for a little while anyway.
Click to expand...
Agree here. I do like Rudolph from that list as ponder is solid thus far. But I'm thinking in more of the ~800 yard range and about 6-7 tds is his ceiling. Gronk and Graham are not only freakish athletes they play in two of the best passing games in the league.

 
'VaTerp said:
'Eminence said:
I don't believe that Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham and once in a generation athletes that are changing the Tight End position. I think they are products of a changing game. With that said, I think it's easy to assume that more Tight Ends will break out this year.

Avoiding Graham and Gronkowski in the first / second allows you to get key players at RB, WR, QB. If you can combine these players with the Jimmy Graham's of this year, the guys who won't cost you an arm or a leg but will produce similiary; you will have a very successful Fantasy Football season.

Short list:

Rob Housler

Jordan Cameron

Kyle Rudolph

Jared Cook

Dwayne Allen

Future potential:

Ladarius Green

Michael Egnew

Get the breakout guy BEFORE he breaks out, not after.
Click to expand...
I think you're selling Gronk and Graham a little bit short. And you also have to factor in how good Brady and Brees are.It's fine to have a discussion about TEs that will break out but I don't think anyone from that list or anywhere else is gonna approach the numbers those 2 guys put up last year. Not for a little while anyway.
Click to expand...
This.And you have look at how many TD's some of these other teams will score. NE and NO score a lot and eat up the yardage.

 
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Don't sleep on Marcedes Lewis this year. He was a top TE in 2010 and is playing in a new TE friendly system this season.

 
My thoughts....

A.Gates - I really think he is ready for a bounce back year....I could see double digit TDs with the lack of weapons in SD.

A.Hernandez- I think he produces about the same amount of catches and yards but could see his TD's going up if Gronk gets more attention in the red zone.

B.Pettigrew- Kind of the same as Hernandez....I can see the efforts to control Calvin in the red zone leave Pettigrew open for 8-10 TDs.

 
'Eminence said:
'BassNBrew said:
Basically you are asking who are the TEs on offenses capable of passing for 4500-5000 yards.Excluding NE and NO you have1. Green Bay - That's right, bump Finley.2. Detriot - Pettigrew3. SD - Gates4. Denver - Tamme5. Atlanta - Gonzo6. NYG - Bennent
Click to expand...
Carolina?
Click to expand...
I don't see Cam making the jump to 4500+ yard territory.1. Carolina lead the league with a 5.4 yards per rush. Both DWill and Stew matched that team average. Tolbert is now in the mix. There's just no need to air it out to 4500+ yards.2. The Carolina defense has to be better this year. The shootout games last year really drove the passing attack. Cam had 572 yards in the last 5 min of the games last year and 395 yards in the last 2 min. Let's put that into perspective. Eli the guy everyone considered clutch last year finish 2nd in last 2 min yardage with 277 yards. Cam had 28.5 ff pts in the last 2 min, Tebow, Sanchez, Stafford, and Orlosky were the only other QBs over 20 pts. Cam basically doubled up Brees and 10x Rodgers.
 
I don't get this at all. Don't draft Gronk/Graham because one of the guys in the OP might break out? Even if I concede one of them will, I don't have the crystal ball to pick which one, and I obviously can't roster them all. I'm willing to take a stab at it, but I'm not passing up Gronk/Graham at reasonable prices in the hopes I pick right. If I do beat the odds and hit on a later TE, it's not like I'm going to regret picking Gronk/Graham, they'll still be awesome and I can trade if necessary. Added to that, it's much more of a given that multiple RB/WR will break out, and at least as likely that a QB or 2 will.

 
Recod breaking seasons dont happen every year so i would say no one will do it. Finley is the only one that plays in an offense good enough, a QB good enough and has the talent to take it to another level. I don't think he'll do it but if I had to pick one it would be him.

 
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'placebo said:
I don't get this at all. Don't draft Gronk/Graham because one of the guys in the OP might break out? Even if I concede one of them will, I don't have the crystal ball to pick which one, and I obviously can't roster them all. I'm willing to take a stab at it, but I'm not passing up Gronk/Graham at reasonable prices in the hopes I pick right. If I do beat the odds and hit on a later TE, it's not like I'm going to regret picking Gronk/Graham, they'll still be awesome and I can trade if necessary. Added to that, it's much more of a given that multiple RB/WR will break out, and at least as likely that a QB or 2 will.
Click to expand...
No. He's saying load up at QB/WR/RB early and grab the 2012 version of Graham late.
 
'BassNBrew said:
'placebo said:
I don't get this at all. Don't draft Gronk/Graham because one of the guys in the OP might break out? Even if I concede one of them will, I don't have the crystal ball to pick which one, and I obviously can't roster them all. I'm willing to take a stab at it, but I'm not passing up Gronk/Graham at reasonable prices in the hopes I pick right. If I do beat the odds and hit on a later TE, it's not like I'm going to regret picking Gronk/Graham, they'll still be awesome and I can trade if necessary. Added to that, it's much more of a given that multiple RB/WR will break out, and at least as likely that a QB or 2 will.
Click to expand...
No. He's saying load up at QB/WR/RB early and grab the 2012 version of Graham late.
Click to expand...
My point is, there's no way whatsoever to guarantee I get that guy. It'd be one thing if he was recommending a specific guy.
 
So pass on two guaranteed studs, giving you an advantage over everyone else to draft a guaranteed stud at a super deep position?

No thanks.

 
'Banger said:
Recod breaking seasons dont happen every year so i would say no one will do it. Finley is the only one that plays in an offense good enough, a QB good enough and has the talent to take it to another level. I don't think he'll do it but if I had to pick one it would be him.
Click to expand...
I believe gates,Hernandez, and tamme have qbs good enough
 
The only TEs I think could finish TE1 provided something terrible happens to Graham and Gronk this season are:

Vernon Davis

Antonio Gates

Jacob Tamme

-Close but so far away-

Aaron Hernandez: Im a pats honk, and this guy continuously lets me down. Hes a producer, but hes not spectacular at anything. Hes a slow WR that lines up at TE and cant block. It amazes me to this day that he isnt as quick off the line as Gronk.

Jermichael Finley: So much wasted potential. Landed in an offense where the QB cant not throw the ball to 12 different receivers every game.

 
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