Whoever is representing FBG in the "Experts" mock... (1 Viewer)

[Stinkin Ref]

I don't get why the site that took Steve Slaton over Adrian Peterson isn't taking more heat on this.Calvin Johnson at #7 overall? 5 WRs in the 1st round and 6 of the top 13 players?Seems like quite a few strange picks going on here. Also pretty unusual for there to be 9 WRs off the board by the time the 2.12 pick comes up, even in a straight PPR scoring system.Plenty of reasons not to like Jacobs or Grant at the 2/3 turn. At that point, John likely had to choose between the 10th best WR or grabbing the #1 QB or #1 TE. I probably would have made sure to grab at least 1 WR at that turn, but taking the #1 QB or #1 TE isn't very unusual at all. I don't get the hate for Gonzo either.

You hit is on the head Aaron. The reason I didn't take the 10th WR is that there were so many of them in my next tier that I'm banking on at least one of them coming back to me. FWIW, Gates just went off the boad at 4.6, so the TE run is probably on. Neither Rodgers nor Gonzo was going to make it back to me. And why exactly is it that everyone is so down on the top TE in the game? I just don't understand the though process of those who want to make this sound like such a horrible decision?

I understand you are "happy with getting anyone within the same tier", but do you understand why the "I have Brady and Brees in other leagues" part of your reasoning does not fly......?and also I would be interested in yor take on Gonzo....are you not concerned at all about his move to ATL?....do you think his numbers will increase?....ATL kind of phased out the TE after losing Cumpler and unless they really put in some plays for Gonzo in the playbook, I don't see his numbers getting to where they were last year.....obviously they will put some things in for him, but he doesn't seemas safe a pick as Witten or Clark....

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

he says Rodgers is in his first tier, but obviously he has Brady and Brees ranked ahead of him based on his "other drafts that he has done already".....

That's not obvious.1. The scoring systems are different in the different leagues, so his rankings may be different in them.2. Even if the scoring systems were the same, he may have those QBs tied with each other.I'm not saying that John should be immune from criticism at this point. The criticism, on the one hand, and the explanation it elicits from him, on the other, are both helpful. So criticize away.I just don't think the obvious point you noted is in fact obvious (or even necessarily correct).

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

And to compound it I don't think there's much chance Rogers finishes #1 at the position this year, regardless of league scoring rules.

On a trivial note . . . Rodgers was #2 in fantasy points per pass attempt last year using FBG scoring (min 100 attempts). (Rivers was #1.) Rodgers was also #2 overall, of course, but it wasn't just because he attempted a lot of passes.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Gonzalez - Slice and dice it any way you want, but you picked a TE at the 24th pick in a league where only 12 are needed to start each week, but a total of 24 RBs and 36 WRs are starting every week. Yeah, you may not have gotten him in the 4th/5th, but you have now put yourself at a serious disadvantage in a league where RBs and WRs would seem to have far higher value. Good luck getting your RB2 and 3 WRs in round 4-8. Had you taken Jacobs/Bowe... instead of Rodgers, this might not have looked so bad.Sorry, but I just don't see the value in going QB/TE in a league with this roster format when your next picks are 48 and 49.

RBs and WRs will be available later, and will slide once the IDPs start going off the board. This is an IDP league so starting lineups are much deeper than normal. Seems very premature to grade out his draft after 3 picks have been made. If he ends round 3 with the #1 QB, #1 RB, and #1 TE, I think he'll look back at this as a great start. If enough quality slides to him at RB and WR later on, he'll be in great shape.Also, re: Rodgers, he said that has Rodgers in the same tier as Brady and Brees. The difference in predicted production between them is probably very slight.

 

[Gr00vus]

And to compound it I don't think there's much chance Rogers finishes #1 at the position this year, regardless of league scoring rules.

On a trivial note . . . Rodgers was #2 in fantasy points per pass attempt last year using FBG scoring (min 100 attempts). (Rivers was #1.)

I'm aware. Last year's stats - you know as well as anyone you have to look beyond that. Brady didn't play last year basically. I'd say there's a higher probability of him finishing #1 than Rogers this year if both stay healthy. After that you can make a case for a few guys, including Rogers. What's interesting to me is how high Norton has Warner ranked. If he's real about that, and that he doesn't care about the names as much as the tiers, he's the security net after the likely suspects are gone - he needed to gamble on Warner being there for him for his 4th/5th round picks.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

Gonzalez - Slice and dice it any way you want, but you picked a TE at the 24th pick in a league where only 12 are needed to start each week, but a total of 24 RBs and 36 WRs are starting every week. Yeah, you may not have gotten him in the 4th/5th, but you have now put yourself at a serious disadvantage in a league where RBs and WRs would seem to have far higher value. Good luck getting your RB2 and 3 WRs in round 4-8. Had you taken Jacobs/Bowe... instead of Rodgers, this might not have looked so bad.Sorry, but I just don't see the value in going QB/TE in a league with this roster format when your next picks are 48 and 49.

RBs and WRs will be available later, and will slide once the IDPs start going off the board. This is an IDP league so starting lineups are much deeper than normal. Seems very premature to grade out his draft after 3 picks have been made. If he ends round 3 with the #1 QB, #1 RB, and #1 TE, I think he'll look back at this as a great start. If enough quality slides to him at RB and WR later on, he'll be in great shape.Also, re: Rodgers, he said that has Rodgers in the same tier as Brady and Brees. The difference in predicted production between them is probably very slight.

just simply saying that he admitted part of his reasoning for taking Rodgers was because he has Brady and Brees in too many of his other leagues....that should not factor in.......sorry

 

[scrumptrulescent]

he says Rodgers is in his first tier, but obviously he has Brady and Brees ranked ahead of him based on his "other drafts that he has done already".....

That's not obvious.1. The scoring systems are different in the different leagues, so his rankings may be different in them.2. Even if the scoring systems were the same, he may have those QBs tied with each other.I'm not saying that John should be immune from criticism at this point. The criticism, on the one hand, and the explanation it elicits from him, on the other, are both helpful. So criticize away.I just don't think the obvious point you noted is in fact obvious (or even necessarily correct).

Norton has Brees, Brady, Manning, Warner, Rodgers, in that order in his most recent rankings. What would change the scoring system in this league to make his 5th choice now become his 1st?

 

[Stinkin Ref]

he says Rodgers is in his first tier, but obviously he has Brady and Brees ranked ahead of him based on his "other drafts that he has done already".....

That's not obvious.1. The scoring systems are different in the different leagues, so his rankings may be different in them.2. Even if the scoring systems were the same, he may have those QBs tied with each other.I'm not saying that John should be immune from criticism at this point. The criticism, on the one hand, and the explanation it elicits from him, on the other, are both helpful. So criticize away.I just don't think the obvious point you noted is in fact obvious (or even necessarily correct).

agreed it is not obvious, but when he makes the comment that I have "Brady and Brees in too many of my other leagues" and uses that as part of the reasoning why he took Rodgers, then it is pretty safe to assume that he had the other two ranked ahead of Rodgers.....and because as he says...."I didn't want to put all my eggs in one basket"....that to me says....I took Rodgers even though he wasn't my highest ranked guy.....most would think that what you do in other leagues should not affect what you do in your next one....that is not the type of thing that you guys as our staff here would recommend, so he should not have done it here.....

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

he says Rodgers is in his first tier, but obviously he has Brady and Brees ranked ahead of him based on his "other drafts that he has done already".....

That's not obvious.1. The scoring systems are different in the different leagues, so his rankings may be different in them.2. Even if the scoring systems were the same, he may have those QBs tied with each other.I'm not saying that John should be immune from criticism at this point. The criticism, on the one hand, and the explanation it elicits from him, on the other, are both helpful. So criticize away.I just don't think the obvious point you noted is in fact obvious (or even necessarily correct).

Norton has Brees, Brady, Manning, Warner, Rodgers, in that order in his most recent rankings. What would change the scoring system in this league to make his 5th choice now become his 1st?

Considering that it's Brady, Brees, Manning, and Warner ahead of Rodgers in his FBG rankings, an increased emphasis on rushing yards (or TDs) would seem to be one obvious candidate since Rodgers will probably out-rush the rest of those guys by 150 yards or so.

 

[LarryAllen'sJockstrap]

Gonzalez - Slice and dice it any way you want, but you picked a TE at the 24th pick in a league where only 12 are needed to start each week, but a total of 24 RBs and 36 WRs are starting every week. Yeah, you may not have gotten him in the 4th/5th, but you have now put yourself at a serious disadvantage in a league where RBs and WRs would seem to have far higher value. Good luck getting your RB2 and 3 WRs in round 4-8. Had you taken Jacobs/Bowe... instead of Rodgers, this might not have looked so bad.

Sorry, but I just don't see the value in going QB/TE in a league with this roster format when your next picks are 48 and 49.

RBs and WRs will be available later, and will slide once the IDPs start going off the board. This is an IDP league so starting lineups are much deeper than normal. Seems very premature to grade out his draft after 3 picks have been made. If he ends round 3 with the #1 QB, #1 RB, and #1 TE, I think he'll look back at this as a great start. If enough quality slides to him at RB and WR later on, he'll be in great shape.Also, re: Rodgers, he said that has Rodgers in the same tier as Brady and Brees. The difference in predicted production between them is probably very slight.

So would TEs; so would QBs...Again, I have no issue if he's got Rodgers as his #1 QB and Gonzalez as his #1 TE. My only criticism is that when you are picking at 24/25, and aren't going to see two picks again until 48/49, you need to maximize your value, especially more than other slots. From the little bit of information posted on the site, it appears it's a non-PPR, start 1 QB, 2RBs, 3WRs, 1TE, K, D, IDPs (which I know nothing about). With this roster/scoring format, the only way I could see justifying taking both a TE and QB at those picks is if you think they are both going to far and above outperform every other player at those positions, thus giving you such an advantage at QB and TE, that the (probable) significant disadvantage you will have at RB2 and your WRs will be outweighed.

If that's the way it turns out, great. It's the strategy and picks of the year. I just think the chances of that scenario occurring are unlikely.

However, I don't have a mantle full of trophies and I do drop 25 bones a year for the advice, so it's just one guy's opinion.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

he says Rodgers is in his first tier, but obviously he has Brady and Brees ranked ahead of him based on his "other drafts that he has done already".....

That's not obvious.1. The scoring systems are different in the different leagues, so his rankings may be different in them.2. Even if the scoring systems were the same, he may have those QBs tied with each other.I'm not saying that John should be immune from criticism at this point. The criticism, on the one hand, and the explanation it elicits from him, on the other, are both helpful. So criticize away.I just don't think the obvious point you noted is in fact obvious (or even necessarily correct).

Norton has Brees, Brady, Manning, Warner, Rodgers, in that order in his most recent rankings. What would change the scoring system in this league to make his 5th choice now become his 1st?

Considering that it's Brady, Brees, Manning, and Warner ahead of Rodgers in his FBG rankings, an increased emphasis on rushing yards (or TDs) would seem to be one obvious candidate.

Maurile....would you ever recommend us not picking a guy because we have him in too many other leagues?

 

[Stinkin Ref]

Gonzalez - Slice and dice it any way you want, but you picked a TE at the 24th pick in a league where only 12 are needed to start each week, but a total of 24 RBs and 36 WRs are starting every week. Yeah, you may not have gotten him in the 4th/5th, but you have now put yourself at a serious disadvantage in a league where RBs and WRs would seem to have far higher value. Good luck getting your RB2 and 3 WRs in round 4-8. Had you taken Jacobs/Bowe... instead of Rodgers, this might not have looked so bad.

Sorry, but I just don't see the value in going QB/TE in a league with this roster format when your next picks are 48 and 49.

RBs and WRs will be available later, and will slide once the IDPs start going off the board. This is an IDP league so starting lineups are much deeper than normal. Seems very premature to grade out his draft after 3 picks have been made. If he ends round 3 with the #1 QB, #1 RB, and #1 TE, I think he'll look back at this as a great start. If enough quality slides to him at RB and WR later on, he'll be in great shape.Also, re: Rodgers, he said that has Rodgers in the same tier as Brady and Brees. The difference in predicted production between them is probably very slight.

So would TEs; so would QBs...Again, I have no issue if he's got Rodgers as his #1 QB and Gonzalez as his #1 TE. My only criticism is that when you are picking at 24/25, and aren't going to see two picks again until 48/49, you need to maximize your value, especially more than other slots. From the little bit of information posted on the site, it appears it's a non-PPR, start 1 QB, 2RBs, 3WRs, 1TE, K, D, IDPs (which I know nothing about). With this roster/scoring format, the only way I could see justifying taking both a TE and QB at those picks is if you think they are both going to far and above outperform every other player at those positions, thus giving you such an advantage at QB and TE, that the (probable) significant disadvantage you will have at RB2 and your WRs will be outweighed.

If that's the way it turns out, great. It's the strategy and picks of the year. I just think the chances of that scenario occurring are unlikely.

However, I don't have a mantle full of trophies and I do drop 25 bones a year for the advice, so it's just one guy's opinion.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

a lot of people are getting hung up on the idea of picking a different player from the same tier when you already have other players in different leagues. is that really such a bad idea though?

like most draft decisions, it's all about risk management. last year, if you wound up with Brady on most of your teams, he goes down in week 1 and you're likely screwed. but, if you had mixed it up and taken Brees or Peyton over Brady in some leagues, you'd minimize your overall risk and likely remain competitive in those other leagues after the Brady injury.

I suppose you can argue that this strategy might not be appropriate for this particular type of draft, but I think it makes a lot of sense and is pretty natural for any drafter who participated in a bunch of leagues.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

would you ever recommend us not picking a guy because we have him in too many other leagues?

Depends on your individual risk preference.ETA: It's analogous to the question of whether you should ever avoid a QB-WR hookup when several WRs are ranked closely together. Avoiding that situation will reduce variance; and if you're confident that your expectation is above average, reducing variance can be worthwhile.

 

[ceo3west]

Beyond winning a very high profile league and bringing bragging rights to the FBG team, what I hope to accomplish is to demonstrate for our subscribers that sometimes thinking out of the box is the answer in certain situations, and that sometimes strategies dictate that you break away from the other lemmings rather than following the perceived norm.

This is a great point. The problem is that most guys that mock other people's draft picks use consensus opinions to guide their draft, usually never think outside the box and don't understand the concept of gaining an edge in drafts. And then they wonder how they could have finished in 8th place for the 3rd year in a row.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

a lot of people are getting hung up on the idea of picking a different player from the same tier when you already have other players in different leagues. is that really such a bad idea though?like most draft decisions, it's all about risk management. last year, if you wound up with Brady on most of your teams, he goes down in week 1 and you're likely screwed. but, if you had mixed it up and taken Brees or Peyton over Brady in some leagues, you'd minimize your overall risk and likely remain competitive in those other leagues after the Brady injury.I suppose you can argue that this strategy might not be appropriate for this particular type of draft, but I think it makes a lot of sense and is pretty natural for any drafter who participated in a bunch of leagues.

yes it is a bad idea....if you intentionally pass up the player you think gives you the best chance to win THAT league, then it is a bad idea.....if he honestly has Rodgers ranked higher than Brady and Brees in this format, then fine.....but by what he said, that is not the case, or he wouldn't have said it the way he did....there would have been no reason to say itat all....

 

[cvnpoka]

varying your picks depending on tier is fine and necessary if you are in a ton of leagues. theres a boatload of variance in ff so its pretty dumb to pick the same guys over and over.

however, having rodgers in the same tier as brady and brees (and even manning) is mouthbreakingly bad.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

Beyond winning a very high profile league and bringing bragging rights to the FBG team, what I hope to accomplish is to demonstrate for our subscribers that sometimes thinking out of the box is the answer in certain situations, and that sometimes strategies dictate that you break away from the other lemmings rather than following the perceived norm.

This is a great point. The problem is that most guys that mock other people's draft picks use consensus opinions to guide their draft, usually never think outside the box and don't understand the concept of gaining an edge in drafts. And then they wonder how they could have finished in 8th place for the 3rd year in a row.

thinking outside the box is one thing....but passing on guys because "you have them in other leagues" is in a box by itself...where it should stay

 

[PatsWillWin]

a lot of people are getting hung up on the idea of picking a different player from the same tier when you already have other players in different leagues. is that really such a bad idea though?like most draft decisions, it's all about risk management. last year, if you wound up with Brady on most of your teams, he goes down in week 1 and you're likely screwed. but, if you had mixed it up and taken Brees or Peyton over Brady in some leagues, you'd minimize your overall risk and likely remain competitive in those other leagues after the Brady injury.I suppose you can argue that this strategy might not be appropriate for this particular type of draft, but I think it makes a lot of sense and is pretty natural for any drafter who participated in a bunch of leagues.

Isn't this a mock draft? Why do you need to manage risk in a mock draft?

 

[ceo3west]

varying your picks depending on tier is fine and necessary if you are in a ton of leagues. theres a boatload of variance in ff so its pretty dumb to pick the same guys over and over.

however, having rodgers in the same tier as brady and brees (and even manning) is mouthbreakingly bad.

Yeah, because those guys are guaranteed to finish top 2. After all, consensus rankings are never wrong, are they?

Without looking at stats I'm going to go out on a limb and say that in the past 10 years, of the top 2 QB's in terms of ADP at least one did not end up top 2. That goes for any position in fact.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

would you ever recommend us not picking a guy because we have him in too many other leagues?

Depends on your individual risk preference.ETA: It's analogous to the question of whether you should ever avoid a QB-WR hookup when several WRs are ranked closely together. Avoiding that situation will reduce variance; and if you're confident that your expectation is above average, reducing variance can be worthwhile.

nice try...but no....your example is a draft strategy for one draft.....he is allowing what he did in other drafts to affect his decision making in a completely different draft....if the goal is to win every league seperately, then what he did was wrong....(even if it works out)if the goal is to try and maximize your winnings over many leagues, then maybe so....but this was supposed to be an EXPERT draft where he is represnting FBG, not a playground to do something different because he is in too many leagues....I think that is why there is some criticism I couldn't care less one way or the other....I just find it stange that FBG staff would encourage us to pass on a player because we have him in too many other leagues....hopefully that is not the feelings of all staff here...

 

[Stinkin Ref]

a lot of people are getting hung up on the idea of picking a different player from the same tier when you already have other players in different leagues. is that really such a bad idea though?like most draft decisions, it's all about risk management. last year, if you wound up with Brady on most of your teams, he goes down in week 1 and you're likely screwed. but, if you had mixed it up and taken Brees or Peyton over Brady in some leagues, you'd minimize your overall risk and likely remain competitive in those other leagues after the Brady injury.I suppose you can argue that this strategy might not be appropriate for this particular type of draft, but I think it makes a lot of sense and is pretty natural for any drafter who participated in a bunch of leagues.

Isn't this a mock draft? Why do you need to manage risk in a mock draft?

I think I saw somewhere on the site, that it was going to be "played out"....not sure what that means....

 

[Wadsworth]

What a strange mock draft. But this is a lot of noise about not much of an issue. There's no way I'd have made those picks in the 2nd and 3rd round but so what? It's very difficult to win any worthwhile league by following the consensus and each person chooses how they are going to go outside the norm. Again I'm not in any way agreeing with the selections, but I do understand why he felt the need to make risky picks. It's how you win more often.

As to drafting a player that you don't have in other leagues to limit risk, I do it all the time. As soon as I am 100% accurate in my predictions I'll start drafting players in 100% of my leagues.

 

[joffer]

at the criticism in this thread.

 

[Winston Wolfe]

would you ever recommend us not picking a guy because we have him in too many other leagues?

Depends on your individual risk preference.ETA: It's analogous to the question of whether you should ever avoid a QB-WR hookup when several WRs are ranked closely together. Avoiding that situation will reduce variance; and if you're confident that your expectation is above average, reducing variance can be worthwhile.

nice try...but no....your example is a draft strategy for one draft.....he is allowing what he did in other drafts to affect his decision making in a completely different draft....if the goal is to win every league seperately, then what he did was wrong....(even if it works out)if the goal is to try and maximize your winnings over many leagues, then maybe so....but this was supposed to be an EXPERT draft where he is represnting FBG, not a playground to do something different because he is in too many leagues....I think that is why there is some criticism I couldn't care less one way or the other....I just find it stange that FBG staff would encourage us to pass on a player because we have him in too many other leagues....hopefully that is not the feelings of all staff here...

That is my biggest issue with John's explanation.

 

[John Norton]

I think one of the things people have a problem with is that part of his reason for picking Rodgers was because he "has Brady in X amount of leagues and Brees in X amount of leagues and he didn't want to put all his eggs in one basket".....meaning....he was making picks in this league based on what he has done in other leagues, which really shouldn't factor in.... he says Rodgers is in his first tier, but obviously he has Brady and Brees ranked ahead of him based on his "other drafts that he has done already".....if Brady is your #1 ranked guy, and you are at a spot in your draft to take a QB and he is available, you take him....you don't pass on him because you have him in too many other leagues....and obviously people get a little sensitive because of the FBG aspect.........

You guys can all look at this from whatever perspective fits your purpose. I understand your points but don't necessarily agree with them, and wish you were willing to consider my big picture instead of dissecting everything into your own context. I make a lot of decisions based on a number of considerations every year. One of those being the fact that I am taking part in multiple leagues and don't want to have the same players in all those leagues for obvious reasons. You can pretend that this is all horrible and that I have somehow committed a sin against the FF gods or offended you as FBG subscribers, but don't for a second try to tell me that you have never passed over a player who you might have ranked slightly higher for another player, based on some odd circumstance or the fact that you like his team, he's a home town player, you get to watch him more often, or for some reason that doesn't even relate to FF. It happens all the time. If you are or have ever been in a position where you have a key player in 5-6 leagues and watch that one player get hurt, taking your entire season down the toilet with him, you might have a different perspective. Like it or not it is a necessity that this be part of my decision making process when I draft. This is my reality and nothing is going to change that fact. This is not a mock draft. It's one of the 11 leagues that I play in. I play this game because I love it and I play to win. It's simple as that. I have explained my decision making process and reasoning which I believe to be sound. Feel free to follow the league and see how it turns out. Obviously most of you who have commented here expect (if not wish for) me to fail. It's an experts league so the competition is outstanding and my gamble could backfire, but this is how I have elected to play it. If I fail there is no doubt some of you will be lined up to say "I told you so". However, if it works and I do well, I wonder if any of you will be there to congratulate me in the end? There is no point in my continuing with this thread since it seems there is no direction for it to go with it but down. I'll leave you with this tidbit that I think of often when playing this game and dealing with situations like this: A great man once told me "It is wise to coat one's words with honey, for he never knows when he may be called upon to eat them". It's very easy to be critical in August. Once again, Best of luck to you all. I am out.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Isn't this a mock draft? Why do you need to manage risk in a mock draft?

no. this is a real league.

 

[PatsWillWin]

a lot of people are getting hung up on the idea of picking a different player from the same tier when you already have other players in different leagues. is that really such a bad idea though?like most draft decisions, it's all about risk management. last year, if you wound up with Brady on most of your teams, he goes down in week 1 and you're likely screwed. but, if you had mixed it up and taken Brees or Peyton over Brady in some leagues, you'd minimize your overall risk and likely remain competitive in those other leagues after the Brady injury.I suppose you can argue that this strategy might not be appropriate for this particular type of draft, but I think it makes a lot of sense and is pretty natural for any drafter who participated in a bunch of leagues.

Isn't this a mock draft? Why do you need to manage risk in a mock draft?

I think I saw somewhere on the site, that it was going to be "played out"....not sure what that means....

Ah, okay.Well if there's $ involved, personally I don't see a problem with diversifying a little bit. If there's no $ involved, I still don't see how this makes any sense.Whatever. Way too much "outrage" in here anyway. This draft really has nothing to do with any subscriber content anyone has purchased. This is one very knowledgeable guy drafting in one of his leagues.

 

[rotten]

If you aren't going to pick the guys who have rated the highest on your board, then you probably shouldn't be participating in drafts that are intended to be analyzed by the public and that other sites are going to write articles about. It completely invalidates the integrity of the mock. The mock is now useless. The mock is already a total joke over at rotoworld.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

If you aren't going to pick the guys who have rated the highest on your board, then you probably shouldn't be participating in drafts that are intended to be analyzed by the public and that other sites are going to write articles about. It completely invalidates the integrity of the mock. The mock is now useless. The mock is already a total joke over at rotoworld.

this isn't a mock draft. it's an experts IDP league.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

a lot of people are getting hung up on the idea of picking a different player from the same tier when you already have other players in different leagues. is that really such a bad idea though?like most draft decisions, it's all about risk management. last year, if you wound up with Brady on most of your teams, he goes down in week 1 and you're likely screwed. but, if you had mixed it up and taken Brees or Peyton over Brady in some leagues, you'd minimize your overall risk and likely remain competitive in those other leagues after the Brady injury.I suppose you can argue that this strategy might not be appropriate for this particular type of draft, but I think it makes a lot of sense and is pretty natural for any drafter who participated in a bunch of leagues.

I actually do this all the time. Mitigate the risk. Maybe there are a couple of guys that I try to get in every league, but then with others, I try to spread it out. Not sure why this is a big deal.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

What a strange mock draft. But this is a lot of noise about not much of an issue. There's no way I'd have made those picks in the 2nd and 3rd round but so what? It's very difficult to win any worthwhile league by following the consensus and each person chooses how they are going to go outside the norm. Again I'm not in any way agreeing with the selections, but I do understand why he felt the need to make risky picks. It's how you win more often.

As to drafting a player that you don't have in other leagues to limit risk, I do it all the time. As soon as I am 100% accurate in my predictions I'll start drafting players in 100% of my leagues.

Exactly, lol. I assumed everyone did that.

 

[Abraham]

If you aren't going to pick the guys who have rated the highest on your board, then you probably shouldn't be participating in drafts that are intended to be analyzed by the public and that other sites are going to write articles about. It completely invalidates the integrity of the mock. The mock is now useless. The mock is already a total joke over at rotoworld.

I was under the impression that everything was a joke over at rotoworld... To the point at hand, I'm not sure I would have selected players the way John did but that certainly doesn't mean that he is "wrong" by any stretch. Is it that unreasonable to think MJD will finish as RB1? Is it that unreasonable to think Rodgers will finish as QB1? I can certainly see Gonzo catching a lot of balls as well.I DO understand the issue of taking players at the turn that you don't think are coming back to you. Without taking Gonzo, it is likely that John misses out on the top-3 TEs and maybe a few more. The difference, in his opinion, obviously is that having one of the best TEs (and in this case the one he thinks is finishing as TE1) and the value it brings trumps the value he sees between WR and RB available at 24/25 and who he thinks is going to be available at 48/49. I think healthy discussion is a great thing, but the "outrage" over these selections seems completely off-base. Each of your projections are different then mine and they are different from John's....and right now there is no way to declare that any of us are correct. I, for one, am looking forward to seeing John do well in this league so he can bump this thread after the season.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

If you aren't going to pick the guys who have rated the highest on your board, then you probably shouldn't be participating in drafts that are intended to be analyzed by the public and that other sites are going to write articles about. It completely invalidates the integrity of the mock. The mock is now useless. The mock is already a total joke over at rotoworld.

So let me get this straight: several months ago Joe and David asked us to promote FBG among our local leagues and friends. A whole bunch of people get in a discussion here about how they would never do that because FBG is their little secret and their key to winning their leagues. Now there is this issue with people like you being mad because FBG looks "dumb" in a Experts league, which would stop people from coming here, as comments on rotoworld show. And you're upset with that?!? Geez, make up your minds.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

What a strange mock draft. But this is a lot of noise about not much of an issue. There's no way I'd have made those picks in the 2nd and 3rd round but so what? It's very difficult to win any worthwhile league by following the consensus and each person chooses how they are going to go outside the norm. Again I'm not in any way agreeing with the selections, but I do understand why he felt the need to make risky picks. It's how you win more often.

As to drafting a player that you don't have in other leagues to limit risk, I do it all the time. As soon as I am 100% accurate in my predictions I'll start drafting players in 100% of my leagues.

Exactly, lol. I assumed everyone did that.

Ditto.We can have a conversation about taking TE/QB or another position at the 2/3 turn, but which TE/QB is personal preference. I am a wait for TE/QB kind of guy, but that doesn't make it correct. Definitely too much outrage going on.

 

[imagroid]

I don't agree with those picks, but the outrage here is ridiculous. If he drafts using tiers, then all the guys in that tier are the same. Switching up players to diversify your teams across many many leagues is perfectly reasonable. Especially if he is doing it for $$ and that $$$ is his.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

"I have explained my decision making process and reasoning which I believe to be sound."

which includes picking Rodgers instead of Brady or Brees because you had them in too many other leagues....cool

vey sound and very unique, had not yet seen that strategy recommended by FBG staff since I been here......must have missed it in the VBD or perfect draft articles...

jk really....good luck...hope you kick ###.........

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

A++++ meltdown would read again

 

[Sweet Love]

Poor, Mark. Guy probably had nothing to do with this..."Wow the guy drafting for footballguys is clearly a jabrone and should be fired ASAP. If I had to guess it would be Mark Wimer, I could spot that guy 2 picks per round and still field a better team than him."

It's not me, but I will point out that I won my Fantasy Sports Trade Association leagues 2 years in a row (2006 and 2007, didn't play last year) - I beat Howard Kamen from USA Today and Matthew Berry from ESPN during 2007. So folks can throw all the mud they want, I've got the trophies on my mantle. LOL. Unlike all the guys who took Steven Jackson in the top 5 last year. LMAO.

Hey, I am a fan...I was just wondering whether you either slept with this guy's wife, burned down his house, or peed on his kid's head...or all of the above...lol.

 

[Gr00vus]

If I fail there is no doubt some of you will be lined up to say "I told you so". However, if it works and I do well, I wonder if any of you will be there to congratulate me in the end?

Hey John, I look forward to you bumping this thread at the end of the year either way so we can see how it turned out and maybe learn from it. It's always good to get different perspectives.

It's very easy to be critical in August.

That's kind of the point of the site and this board. August is the peak time for critical thinking in FF. The more this kind of discussion and analysis of "real life" drafts goes on, the better informed we all are.

Once again, Best of luck to you all. I am out.

Best of luck to you too.

 

[Abraham]

"I have explained my decision making process and reasoning which I believe to be sound."

which includes picking Rodgers instead of Brady or Brees because you had them in too many other leagues....cool

vey sound and very unique, had not yet seen that strategy recommended by FBG staff since I been here......must have missed it in the VBD or perfect draft articles...

jk really....good luck...hope you kick ###.........

Honestly, that would be a good article. I think I'll give it a crack this weekend - "Spreading Risk Between Leagues"

 

[lyon812]

a lot of people are getting hung up on the idea of picking a different player from the same tier when you already have other players in different leagues. is that really such a bad idea though?like most draft decisions, it's all about risk management. last year, if you wound up with Brady on most of your teams, he goes down in week 1 and you're likely screwed. but, if you had mixed it up and taken Brees or Peyton over Brady in some leagues, you'd minimize your overall risk and likely remain competitive in those other leagues after the Brady injury.I suppose you can argue that this strategy might not be appropriate for this particular type of draft, but I think it makes a lot of sense and is pretty natural for any drafter who participated in a bunch of leagues.

I actually do this all the time. Mitigate the risk. Maybe there are a couple of guys that I try to get in every league, but then with others, I try to spread it out. Not sure why this is a big deal.

Likewise, particularly among players I have ranked relatively equal, since I tend to rank in tiers rather than trying to figure out if this WR will score 67.4 points to this other receiver's 66.8. Sometimes the strategy backfires, but sometimes it works out wonderfully. Part of the joy for me in fantasy football is diversity, not trying to create the same clone team across multiple leagues. These are the players that went after him:QB: Brees, Brady, ManningRB: Jacobs, Grant, Thomas, Bush, Smith, WardWR: Welker, Colston, Bowe, Owens, Housh, Ochocinco, VJackson, Marshall, DJacksonTE: Gates, WittenLB: WillisI probably would have preferred Brees-Owens out of that group, hoping to pick up one of Clark, Daniels or Cooley on the turnaround at 4-5. However, at this point the draft is as follows:1.01 Footballguys.com - Jones-Drew, Maurice2.12 Footballguys.com - Gonzalez, Tony (Editor's Note: !!!)3.01 Footballguys.com - Rodgers, Aaron4.12 Footballguys.com - Royal, Eddie5.1 Footballguys.com - Edwards, Braylon1.02 Sports Grumblings - Slaton, Steve 2.11 Sports Grumblings - Brown, Ronnie3.02 Sports Grumblings - Welker, Wes4.11 Sports Grumblings - Williams, Roy E.1.03 Fantasy Insights - Fitzgerald, Larry2.10 Fantasy Insights - White, Roddy3.03 Fantasy Insights - Brees, Drew4.10 Fantasy Insights - Derrick Ward1.04 KFFL - Peterson, Adrian2.09 KFFL - Williams, DeAngelo3.04 KFFL - Colston, Marques4.9 KFFL - DeSean Jackson1.05 FF Mastermind - Forte, Matt2.08 FF Mastermind - Boldin, Anquan3.05 FF Mastermind - Jacobs, Brandon4.8 FF Mastermind - Jason Witten1.06 Rotoworld - Jackson, Steven (calm yourself, Scott C)2.07 Rotoworld - Barber, Marion3.06 Rotoworld - Bowe, Dwayne4.7 Rotoworld - Smith, Kevin1.07 USA TODAY - Johnson, Andre2.06 USA TODAY - Jennings, Greg3.07 USA TODAY - Grant, Ryan4.6 USA TODAY - Gates, Antonio1.08 RotoWire - Johnson, Calvin2.05 RotoWire - Gore, Frank3.08 RotoWire - Thomas, Pierre4.5 RotoWire - Marshall, Brandon1.09 FantasyFootball.com - Tomlinson, LaDainian2.04 FantasyFootball.com - Portis, Clinton3.09 FantasyFootball.com - Brady, Tom4.4 FantasyFootball.com - Willis, Patrick (first IDP gone, way early for my tastes)1.10 Fantasy Guru - Johnson, Chris2.03 Fantasy Guru - Westbrook, Brian3.10 Fantasy Guru - Owens, Terrell4.3 Fantasy Guru - Jackson, Vincent1.11 FF Today - Moss, Randy2.02 FF Today - Turner, Michael3.11 FF Today - Manning, Peyton4.2 FF Today - Ochocinco, Chad1.12 The Huddle - Wayne, Reggie2.01 The Huddle - Smith, Steve3.12 The Huddle - Houshmandzadeh, T.J.4.1 The Huddle - Bush, ReggieI don't see where his team is ridiculously terrible compared to anyone else. It's already immediately superior to a number of them.

 

[BroadwayG]

5 stars.

Dear Mr Norton, I like that you are going off the beaten path.

who.wants.to.see.draft.robot.schtick.every.single.mock? Not I.

 

[Winston Wolfe]

If you look at the scoring and last year's rankings in this league, you will see that Rodgers was the #2 overall player in the league, 9 points behind Brees, and that Gonzo was #30 (I took him at 24) but outscored all other TE's by 57 points. I already have Brees in 4 other leagues, and Brady in 2. If this were my only league I would have taken Brees but I just don't like putting all my eggs in one basket and lets be honest, there's not that big a difference among the top 4-5 QBs so I took the one I wanted.

I can understand using a different draft strategy (IE RB-RB, WR-WR, etc) in different drafts, but to take a player that you are ranking 5th over the player you are ranking 1st because it is not your only league is foolish. "I ignored my rankings just to switch it up" is an insult to people who actually are paying for your analysis. You intentionally drafted a player that you believe to be inferior because you wanted to do something different? I could understand if you were drafting a lower ranked player due to ADP, but this is nonsense.You owe it to your subscribers to look at each draft in a vacuum and stick to you convictions. Your explanation reeks of indifference.

Where do you see anything that says I have Rodgers (assuming of course that he's the player you are referring to) ranked 5th in this particular scoring system? If I believed that picking Rodgers over Brady or Brees would hurt my chances in the least, I would not have made that pick. I use tiers when I draft rather than rankings. If there are players who I see as virtually equal, it doesn't matter which of them I pick. It's no different than picking one player over another based on bye weeks. Just in case you are interested, there are 5 QBs in my first tier for this draft. I have 1 of them. At TE there is 1 player in my first tier, I have him also. What I owe to our subscribers, to my Footballguys teammates and to myself, is to try and win EVERY league I enter. That's exactly what I do. I don't care if you agree with my decisions or not. I don't care if you agree with my strategy or not. From my experience, the situation dictated to me that the strategy I used will give me the best opportunity to win THIS league. Right or wrong, if that were not the case I would never have used it, period.

It's not as if this is an experiment. I have taken part in approximately 200 leagues during my years playing the game and as I said, this strategy has worked for me in the past. Beyond winning a very high profile league and bringing bragging rights to the FBG team, what I hope to accomplish is to demonstrate for our subscribers that sometimes thinking out of the box is the answer in certain situations, and that sometimes strategies dictate that you break away from the other lemmings rather than following the perceived norm. My apologies if you failed to get that point from my previous explanation.

If not for "sticking to my convictions" I would have ignored what I felt was the right decision, taken the next best WR/RB and moved on, avoiding all this fall out. The problem being that I'm just too darned competitive to do that. Regardless of how you may perceive it, the success of my season is not based on any one league. I am currently competing in 11 not counting survivor/best ball contests. Obviously I can't win all of them but I will endeavor to win as many as I possibly can. I hope you can understand that.

Best of luck to you this season.

Thanks for the response John. I will never criticize someone's rankings because they are different, I just may not agree with them. I won't criticize someone from thinking outside the box and making a pick that flies in the face of ADP. I personally think that ADP is the devil and creates too much group think or lemmings. I have no problem with you thinking that a QB is the proper choice here. It is likely that your top 5 QBs as shown in the FBGs rankings would have been gone when you drafted at the turn of 4/5, so I can't criticize any of those players being drafted.What I am specifically criticizing is this statement, "If this were my only league I would have taken Brees but I just don't like putting all my eggs in one basket". You knowingly and willfully passed on a player that you felt was the better pick because it hedged your bet in other leagues. I have a big problem with this statement when people are paying for your rankings and you deviate from them without a valid reason, such as a large variance between your ranking and ADP. Using Dodds' projections, Clinton Portis is a good example of this. Mid first round ranking with a mid second round ADP.

I can understand that if you are playing in multiple money leagues, hedging a bet on a player is a valid strategy, because it doesn't put all your eggs in one basket and can allow you to still end up with a profit for the year. Case and point is Tom Brady last year. A subscriber is going to look at this draft as a stand alone product and it is reasonable for a casual subscriber to infer that as of this week you believe Aaron Rodgers to be your number one ranked QB. Unfortunately, your FBG rankings state otherwise and you yourself state otherwise with your explanation.

As for Mark and his off the wall projections, I might disagree with Mark's specific player rankings, but you can never doubt his convictions on those players. Whether he is right or wrong, that is what he thinks and he drafts according to those beliefs. Plus he gets the benefit of the doubt because he fed my ### at the FBGs Vegas retreat in 2004.

 

[TheFanatic]

I don't think this is a mock draft. It's an IDP league and John Norton is representing FBG in it. I'm sure he'll check in and provide his reasoning.

Tough part about picking on the turns is you often have to reach for players b/c it's a long wait til you get to pick again.

Bingo. If you truly feel that Gonzo and Rodgers will be that much worth owning, then you have to draft them there, Rodgers won't be there at the 4/5 turn. Gonzo's tougher to justify, as he might be there then, but that is around his ADP (I think, I'm not doublechecking right now).Look at it this way, would there be this outrage if it was Brady/Witten there? If those 2 would be acceptable, why would he pick players he assumedly has ranked lower there just because there ADP says they should be first picked.

That's all well and good except of course with Brady, Manning, Brees, DClark, Witten, etc still on the board. The notion is that if there is a run started right after you pick you are screwed, but if you start the run, pick the top guys. Gonzo had a monster year last year but he goes to a new team with a rookie QB and a stud WR?

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

Plus he gets the benefit of the doubt because he fed my ### at the FBGs Vegas retreat in 2004.

NTTAWWT. :(

 

[Tong Po]

"I have explained my decision making process and reasoning which I believe to be sound."

which includes picking Rodgers instead of Brady or Brees because you had them in too many other leagues....cool

vey sound and very unique, had not yet seen that strategy recommended by FBG staff since I been here......must have missed it in the VBD or perfect draft articles...

jk really....good luck...hope you kick ###.........

Wow.... you're really bent out of shape about this huh? Everyone "ranks" players by position when preparing for a draft. But sometimes the difference in how you value them is small. He could have Tom Brady ranked #1 and Rodgers ranked #5 because he HAS to rank them in some kind of order. But these are all TOP TIER QBs, and maybe he feels the difference between Brady and Rodgers is slight enough to warrant trying out a different QB in this particular league. Cut the dude some slack. Rodgers is just as likely as any of the Top 5 mentioned in this thread to finish as the #1 QB at the end of the year.

 

[ivnabru]

I have no problem with the picks. MJD can certainly make a case at 1.01 so can quite a few guys. There isn't really a bulletproof player this year.

If you truly believe Gonzo has another 100 catches in him I understand the pick. I don't think he does personally, unless Roddy takes a pretty big drop that's close to 200 receptions between 2 players. That would be better than 2/3 of Ryan's completions last year though I'd expect the Falcons to pass a bit more this year than they did last year. I just don't see the space because Jenkins has looked like a decent WR the last year or so too.

On Rodgers he's not even in my top 5 QBs, but if you have him #1 sure not a bad bet. The Pack have nice receiver options so he isn't in a bad situation at all.

Getting your #1 QB and #1 TE on the 2/3 turn is imo a pretty good strategy if you're not a fan of the RB/WRs available. I disagree with the rankings personally but nothing wrong with the strategy. If this year plays out the same as 2008 did you'll look like a genius because as you said Gonzo outscored other TEs by such a significant margin and Rodgers finished #2.

What I do disagree with is the way two staff members have come on and puffed their chests out and talked about all of their wins. Come on you guys are better than that, most of the people in this thread probably have a lot of wins. It just seems like you guys are taking criticisms to heart, if you write for a large site you're going to have people criticize you. It's part of the job. Prove yourselves by writing good articles, making good projections and helping people out consistently. Not talking about how you beat this or that expert. I've been in a lot of leagues with experts/writers myself they haven't usually fared any better than the no names in my experience.

Don't get me wrong I think some of the criticism is silly, it seems like people want every mock to follow the yahoo big board or they won't give it any respect. I'm not sure I've ever seen anyone win a competitive league by following ADP exclusively. Oh well, just my 2 cents.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

"I have explained my decision making process and reasoning which I believe to be sound."

which includes picking Rodgers instead of Brady or Brees because you had them in too many other leagues....cool

vey sound and very unique, had not yet seen that strategy recommended by FBG staff since I been here......must have missed it in the VBD or perfect draft articles...

jk really....good luck...hope you kick ###.........

Wow.... you're really bent out of shape about this huh? Everyone "ranks" players by position when preparing for a draft. But sometimes the difference in how you value them is small. He could have Tom Brady ranked #1 and Rodgers ranked #5 because he HAS to rank them in some kind of order. But these are all TOP TIER QBs, and maybe he feels the difference between Brady and Rodgers is slight enough to warrant trying out a different QB in this particular league. Cut the dude some slack. Rodgers is just as likely as any of the Top 5 mentioned in this thread to finish as the #1 QB at the end of the year.

not bent about anything...I could care less, (except it really isn't a ton of fun seeing FBG talked negatively about, cause I love this palce)....John just admitted that part of the reason he picked Rodgers was because he had Brees and Brady in too many other leagues.....just don't think that is a sound strategy that would be prescribed by the FBG staff here....so he is getting called out on it....he should have just kept that part to himself.....and simply said I have Rodgers ranked higher in this scoring system... (which I don't think he does)... but he could have maybe slid it by us.....no big deal.....it really has nothing to do with the picks, but the reasoning behind the picks.....which is a big part of the reason many of us come here....so when on the very few occassions a staff member makes a statement that is questionable, I would think the staff here would want some discussion on it to help us all get better......maximizing risks across leagues really should have had nothing to do with this draft if he is representing FBG.....now if he is just representing John Norton, than that is a different story........

 

[greyone]

I see absolutely nothing wrong with John taking Rodgers because his other teams are loaded with Brees or Manning. I get bored having the same players on all my teams.

Yes John put Aaron Rodgers at 5 behind the other elite qbs. Most people want their "experts" to stand by their convictions. Isn't ranking Rodgers at 5 a firm stance? John only confirms his high ranking by taking Rodgers at the turn of round 2 and 3. He believes Rodgers is elite. No doubt about it. So what if he passed on Brady and Manning. John is trying to stand by his rankings as a whole. Not only the players at the summit.

Even during mock drafts I find myself taking the same players over and over again. Boring. I need to work on expanding my draft knowledge. By forcefully selecting different players away from my bread and butter or the norm.

I do not play in 11 like like John Norton. Closer to 5 or 6 every season. I purposely try to create different rosters to test my all around fantasy skills. Moving away from my heaviest bias is not an easy strategy. Very entertaining at times.

People also seem to forget rankings do not always dictate draft position. Some of these rankings are a difference of 5, 10 or 15 points. Not very much in most peoples book.

Lighten up. The amount of negative energy in here is deafening and disheartening.