Why are NFL head coaches so horrible at end game clock management (1 Viewer)

[Donnybrook]

BTW: If you let them score a TD, then score a last second TD - you still don't win. It will be a tie and you could still lose in OT.

Yes, of course. You don't think the odds are better than facing the chip shot fg?

It wasn't initially a chip shot field goal. Vikings had timeouts and just needed to stop Lance Ball from getting a first down but they failed. The Vikings basically conceded the game on that play. Maybe if they had something to play for besides a lower draft spot it would make sense but it is what it is. I still think the chances of driving the field and missing a field goal are about equal under the circumstances. I don't recall many coaches getting critized for not conceding a TD under those circumstances. I seen a lot of games but I don't recall any game where a coach ordered his defense to let them score. Can you?

 

[mbuehner]

I never said it was simple. On the contrary, my point is basically that it's an impossible problem to solve, which is why it's hard to fault a head coach for the way they choose to play an 8 point deficit at the end of the game.

Its not impossible, there is a statistical answer that is 'correct'. That doesn't mean it will go your way. One of the biggest problems in football and especially in fantasy is recognizing that you may make the correct decision and it may not pay off... but that it was still the correct decision. Card players are more comfortable with this truth (probably because they see situations play out at so much higher of a volume). Regardless, all the information relevant is available before the game is ever played. You know how often NFL teams convert 2pt conversions, how often your team does it, how often NFL teams recover on-sides in the last minute of the game, how often your team does it (not very relevant), and how often Aaron Rodgers marches down the field to kick a fieldgoal with either 1 minute or 10 seconds, and how often he does it to win games. BUT- you also have to factor in your odds of winning if you tie and go to OT vs your odds of recovering the onside kick and winning outright in regulation. All this could be done in a matter of seconds on a laptop with the right preparation for a reasonably common endgame like being down 8. Ironically your best chance of winning (i'm willing to bet) could be to make the 2pt conversion (obviously) and then kick the onside kick. Your odds on a surprise onside kick are closer to 60%, which is probably much better than either giving Rodgers the ball back with a minute or beating him in overtime.

 

[jon_mx]

Coughlin. 1st and goal with 1 min to go. Down by 8. And you pass every down so as to preserve a minute fora QB who is playing at as high a level as any NFL QB ever? Even a 10 yr old who plays madden knows that you need to run the ball there to whittle down the clock to score with time near expired. I was even thinking as he kicked off that i wouldn't blame him for trying a surprise onside here, as there is NO CHANCE Rogers isn't gonna get em in FG range in a minute. You know what happened next.

Down by 7, sure, but it's impossible to say what the right call is there when you're down by 8. If they run all the time off the clock and then miss the 2-pt conversion, they screw themselves out of a shot for another possession.

The odds of getting the 2 pt (40%) are far higher than getting the onsides (which is what 10%). Plus if you get the onsides you don't need much more than 1-2 plays to get in GW fg range. Playing the %'s I'd say the downside of giving Roogers 1 minute vs the upside how much time you'd need to get in FG range after an onsides still fall towards at least running half of that minute off the clock.

You shouldn't be comparing the probability of making the 2-pt conversion to the probability of recovering an onside kick. You should be comparing the probability of making the 2-pt conversion to the probability of missing the 2-pt conversion.

It is more complex than just comparing those two probabilities, but those factors definitely play a huge role. You really need to figure the probability of winning if you score quickly and make two, if you score quickly and miss the two, if you run the clock down and make two (about 50%), and if you run the clock down and miss two (which would be zero). Then figure out which way maximizes your expected wins based upon the probability of making the conversion.

 

[mrspree15]

BTW: If you let them score a TD, then score a last second TD - you still don't win. It will be a tie and you could still lose in OT.

Yes, of course. You don't think the odds are better than facing the chip shot fg?

It wasn't initially a chip shot field goal. Vikings had timeouts and just needed to stop Lance Ball from getting a first down but they failed. The Vikings basically conceded the game on that play. Maybe if they had something to play for besides a lower draft spot it would make sense but it is what it is. I still think the chances of driving the field and missing a field goal are about equal under the circumstances. I don't recall many coaches getting critized for not conceding a TD under those circumstances. I seen a lot of games but I don't recall any game where a coach ordered his defense to let them score. Can you?

Denver moved to the 4 yard line with over a minute left and the Vikings stopped them 2 more times. I think it's weird that you don't understand which has a better chance of happening.

 

[Donnybrook]

Denver moved to the 4 yard line with over a minute left and the Vikings stopped them 2 more times. I think it's weird that you don't understand which has a better chance of happening.

I have no stats to support me but I will say that I have seen a lot more last minute incompletions and interceptions than touchdowns. I will concede that the percentages might not be in my favor. However, you failed to answer my question. Can you recall ever seeing a team purposely concede a TD to get the ball back? I can't recall seeing it. I remember seeing New England concede a safety once.

 

[mrspree15]

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/blog/shutdown_corner/post/Maurice-Jones-Drew-takes-a-knee-apologizes-to-f?urn=nfl-202651

MJD knows his percentages though

 

[identikit]

Denver moved to the 4 yard line with over a minute left and the Vikings stopped them 2 more times. I think it's weird that you don't understand which has a better chance of happening.

I have no stats to support me but I will say that I have seen a lot more last minute incompletions and interceptions than touchdowns. I will concede that the percentages might not be in my favor. However, you failed to answer my question. Can you recall ever seeing a team purposely concede a TD to get the ball back? I can't recall seeing it. I remember seeing New England concede a safety once.

Denver-GB Super Bowl.

 

[jon_mx]

Denver moved to the 4 yard line with over a minute left and the Vikings stopped them 2 more times. I think it's weird that you don't understand which has a better chance of happening.

I have no stats to support me but I will say that I have seen a lot more last minute incompletions and interceptions than touchdowns. I will concede that the percentages might not be in my favor. However, you failed to answer my question. Can you recall ever seeing a team purposely concede a TD to get the ball back? I can't recall seeing it. I remember seeing New England concede a safety once.

I have seen players intentionally not score so they could run out the clock. When the other team is in position to make a 99% extra point-like FG, you have to let them score to improve your odds.

 

[Donnybrook]

http://sports.yahoo....?urn=nfl-202651

MJD knows his percentages though

Too bad MJD took a knee we will never know if New Yorks strategy would have worked.

 

[Dizzy]

Denver moved to the 4 yard line with over a minute left and the Vikings stopped them 2 more times. I think it's weird that you don't understand which has a better chance of happening.

I have no stats to support me but I will say that I have seen a lot more last minute incompletions and interceptions than touchdowns. I will concede that the percentages might not be in my favor. However, you failed to answer my question. Can you recall ever seeing a team purposely concede a TD to get the ball back? I can't recall seeing it. I remember seeing New England concede a safety once.

Denver-GB Super Bowl.

Pretty sure that was later confirmed by Holmgren as well.

 

[identikit]

Denver moved to the 4 yard line with over a minute left and the Vikings stopped them 2 more times. I think it's weird that you don't understand which has a better chance of happening.

I have no stats to support me but I will say that I have seen a lot more last minute incompletions and interceptions than touchdowns. I will concede that the percentages might not be in my favor. However, you failed to answer my question. Can you recall ever seeing a team purposely concede a TD to get the ball back? I can't recall seeing it. I remember seeing New England concede a safety once.

Denver-GB Super Bowl.

Pretty sure that was later confirmed by Holmgren as well.

Yep.

 

[mrspree15]

Maybe you can petition the league to play every game twice do you can find out which decisions work

 

[Donnybrook]

Denver moved to the 4 yard line with over a minute left and the Vikings stopped them 2 more times. I think it's weird that you don't understand which has a better chance of happening.

I have no stats to support me but I will say that I have seen a lot more last minute incompletions and interceptions than touchdowns. I will concede that the percentages might not be in my favor. However, you failed to answer my question. Can you recall ever seeing a team purposely concede a TD to get the ball back? I can't recall seeing it. I remember seeing New England concede a safety once.

Denver-GB Super Bowl.

Pretty sure that was later confirmed by Holmgren as well.

Green Bay conceded the TD and still lost. Correct?

 

[Donnybrook]

Maybe you can petition the league to play every game twice do you can find out which decisions work

Maybe you should? You are the guy that is playing the what if game.

 

[Dizzy]

Green Bay conceded the TD and still lost. Correct?

Yes, but the point being... do you want to be down a score with 0:00 on the clock, or down a score WITH THE BALL and time on the clock?

 

[mrspree15]

Maybe you can petition the league to play every game twice do you can find out which decisions work

Maybe you should? You are the guy that is playing the what if game.

I know right

 

[jon_mx]

Green Bay conceded the TD and still lost. Correct?

Yes, but the point being... do you want to be down a score with 0:00 on the clock, or down a score WITH THE BALL and time on the clock?

He would rather have no chance to win than say a 10% chance. When you are in a position to let the other team score, you are in pretty horrible shape.

 

[Joe Summer]

Green Bay conceded the TD and still lost. Correct?

Yes, but the point being... do you want to be down a score with 0:00 on the clock, or down a score WITH THE BALL and time on the clock?

The difference with Green Bay is that there was 1:45 on the clock and they had 2 timeouts. And they had Brett Favre at QB.In yesterday's game, there was 1:12 on the clock and Minnesota had 1 timeout left.

 

[Donnybrook]

Green Bay conceded the TD and still lost. Correct?

Yes, but the point being... do you want to be down a score with 0:00 on the clock, or down a score WITH THE BALL and time on the clock?

He would rather have no chance to win than say a 10% chance. When you are in a position to let the other team score, you are in pretty horrible shape.

To be fair, we are talking about a 5 % chance vs some unknown % chance. I understand that it could have been the better percentage play. Frasier is a defensive minded coach so I doubt those type of stats entered his mind.

 

[mrspree15]

Green Bay conceded the TD and still lost. Correct?

Yes, but the point being... do you want to be down a score with 0:00 on the clock, or down a score WITH THE BALL and time on the clock?

He would rather have no chance to win than say a 10% chance. When you are in a position to let the other team score, you are in pretty horrible shape.

To be fair, we are talking about a 5 % chance vs some unknown % chance. I understand that it could have been the better percentage play. Frasier is a defensive minded coach so I doubt those type of stats entered his mind.

Interesting theory. Do you think a guy like **** LeBeau or Wade Phillips has even less of a grasp of probability than Frazier?