Why did W. Parker's TD total skyrocket in 2006? (1 Viewer)

[cheatsheetwarroom]

Willie Parker's Stats

2005

255 carries, 1202 yards, 4TDs

2006

337 carries, 1494 yards, 13TDs

2007

312 carries, 1316 yards, 2TDs

Although he got more carries in 2006, it wasn't vastly different from 2007. So why did Parker's TD totals skyrocket in 2006, but remain low in 2005 & 2007?

 

[j3r3m3y]

Willie Parker's Stats

2005

255 carries, 1202 yards, 4TDs

2006

337 carries, 1494 yards, 13TDs

2007

312 carries, 1316 yards, 2TDs

Although he got more carries in 2006, it wasn't vastly different from 2007. So why did Parker's TD totals skyrocket in 2006, but remain low in 2005 & 2007?

Admittedly this is my opinion, with only personal observation to back it up, but my gut says "statistical anomaly".

 

[Todem]

Hum...no it called getting the goaline carries? Yeah that was it.

Not to difficult to see that. He was getting plenty of touches in the red zone in 2006.

 

[j3r3m3y]

Hum...no it called getting the goaline carries? Yeah that was it.Not to difficult to see that. He was getting plenty of touches in the red zone in 2006.

Did someone else get them in 2005 or 2007?

 

[Jeff Tefertiller]

Hum...no it called getting the goaline carries? Yeah that was it.Not to difficult to see that. He was getting plenty of touches in the red zone in 2006.

Did someone else get them in 2005 or 2007?

The Steelers had an unusually low rush TD number in 2007 .. so it was not just FWP last season.

 

[kevinray]

The answer is the retirement of Bettis

110 368 3.3 9

Bettis still played a big role in that offense when Parker got the team down to the goal line. If anything Parker's 2007 drop off could be considered the anomaly since the Steelers moved away from historically running the ball near the goal line in favor of passing.

 

[Sweet Love]

The answer is the retirement of Bettis110 368 3.3 9 Bettis still played a big role in that offense when Parker got the team down to the goal line. If anything Parker's 2007 drop off could be considered the anomaly since the Steelers moved away from historically running the ball near the goal line in favor of passing.

Exactly and to take it a step further, in 2007 there was a new coaching staff that most likely played into his getting fewer TDs as the team had less than in previous years under Cower. No surprise at all, Big Ben went from a "game manager" to a guy that nearly threw for 30 TDs in 2007.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

The answer is the retirement of Bettis110 368 3.3 9 Bettis still played a big role in that offense when Parker got the team down to the goal line. If anything Parker's 2007 drop off could be considered the anomaly since the Steelers moved away from historically running the ball near the goal line in favor of passing.

Exactly and to take it a step further, in 2007 there was a new coaching staff that most likely played into his getting fewer TDs as the team had less than in previous years under Cower. No surprise at all, Big Ben went from a "game manager" to a guy that nearly threw for 30 TDs in 2007.

Big Ben threw for 32I think parker will land in the 6-9 range for total TD's16 is too high, 2 is too low

 

[pinequick]

The answer is the retirement of Bettis110 368 3.3 9 Bettis still played a big role in that offense when Parker got the team down to the goal line. If anything Parker's 2007 drop off could be considered the anomaly since the Steelers moved away from historically running the ball near the goal line in favor of passing.

Exactly and to take it a step further, in 2007 there was a new coaching staff that most likely played into his getting fewer TDs as the team had less than in previous years under Cower. No surprise at all, Big Ben went from a "game manager" to a guy that nearly threw for 30 TDs in 2007.

Big Ben threw for 32I think parker will land in the 6-9 range for total TD's16 is too high, 2 is too low

My guess is that the "2" end of the scale is the better estimate, given that Mendenhall should have a chance to be the short yardage guy (a la Bettis).

 

[Sweet Love]

The answer is the retirement of Bettis110 368 3.3 9 Bettis still played a big role in that offense when Parker got the team down to the goal line. If anything Parker's 2007 drop off could be considered the anomaly since the Steelers moved away from historically running the ball near the goal line in favor of passing.

Exactly and to take it a step further, in 2007 there was a new coaching staff that most likely played into his getting fewer TDs as the team had less than in previous years under Cower. No surprise at all, Big Ben went from a "game manager" to a guy that nearly threw for 30 TDs in 2007.

Big Ben threw for 32I think parker will land in the 6-9 range for total TD's16 is too high, 2 is too low

My guess is that the "2" end of the scale is the better estimate, given that Mendenhall should have a chance to be the short yardage guy (a la Bettis).

I kind of thought the same thing, but there was something out there today I read about Mendenhall not converting three goalline shots in a row. It could have been a Tatum Bell piece (ala motivation), but what Mendenhall was saying really made me think twice. Basically the coach said he was dissapointed and Mendenhall was saying something about things moving so fast. i know it takes time for rookies to pick things up, but whenever I hear things about the game moving too fast (even in the preseason), I start to wonder whether said rookie will be ready in a month.

 

[chris1969]

The answer is the retirement of Bettis110 368 3.3 9 Bettis still played a big role in that offense when Parker got the team down to the goal line. If anything Parker's 2007 drop off could be considered the anomaly since the Steelers moved away from historically running the ball near the goal line in favor of passing.

Exactly and to take it a step further, in 2007 there was a new coaching staff that most likely played into his getting fewer TDs as the team had less than in previous years under Cower. No surprise at all, Big Ben went from a "game manager" to a guy that nearly threw for 30 TDs in 2007.

Big Ben threw for 32I think parker will land in the 6-9 range for total TD's16 is too high, 2 is too low

My guess is that the "2" end of the scale is the better estimate, given that Mendenhall should have a chance to be the short yardage guy (a la Bettis).

You beat me to it! I also think that Mendenhall will cut into FWP's yardage numbers as well.

 

[pinequick]

The answer is the retirement of Bettis110 368 3.3 9 Bettis still played a big role in that offense when Parker got the team down to the goal line. If anything Parker's 2007 drop off could be considered the anomaly since the Steelers moved away from historically running the ball near the goal line in favor of passing.

Exactly and to take it a step further, in 2007 there was a new coaching staff that most likely played into his getting fewer TDs as the team had less than in previous years under Cower. No surprise at all, Big Ben went from a "game manager" to a guy that nearly threw for 30 TDs in 2007.

Big Ben threw for 32I think parker will land in the 6-9 range for total TD's16 is too high, 2 is too low

My guess is that the "2" end of the scale is the better estimate, given that Mendenhall should have a chance to be the short yardage guy (a la Bettis).

I kind of thought the same thing, but there was something out there today I read about Mendenhall not converting three goalline shots in a row. It could have been a Tatum Bell piece (ala motivation), but what Mendenhall was saying really made me think twice. Basically the coach said he was dissapointed and Mendenhall was saying something about things moving so fast. i know it takes time for rookies to pick things up, but whenever I hear things about the game moving too fast (even in the preseason), I start to wonder whether said rookie will be ready in a month.

I read that, too, and ultimately it may prove to be an issue for him. But knowing that it is the 4th day of August and that they haven't even played a down of exhibition football yet helps me sleep at night. I think he'll be okay...

 

[Mcnabbfan]

I kind of thought the same thing, but there was something out there today I read about Mendenhall not converting three goalline shots in a row. It could have been a Tatum Bell piece (ala motivation), but what Mendenhall was saying really made me think twice. Basically the coach said he was dissapointed and Mendenhall was saying something about things moving so fast. i know it takes time for rookies to pick things up, but whenever I hear things about the game moving too fast (even in the preseason), I start to wonder whether said rookie will be ready in a month.

I wouldn't read too much into this. If I am not mistaken, Clinton Portis was having the same problem at the goal line during his rookie camp and then proceeded to score 15 TDs his rookie year. The reason I remember this is I ended up drafting DeShaun Foster instead of Portis in a Dynasty league for this specific reason.

 

[Addai's Adidas]

Bettis had some games where he had like 2 yards and 4 TD's on the day.

 

[Godsbrother]

Summary:

2005

255 carries, 1202 yards, 4TDs

Jerome Bettis was getting the goalline carries.

2006

337 carries, 1494 yards, 13TDs

Jerome Bettis gone/Ben's accident & appendectomy.

2007

312 carries, 1316 yards, 2TDs

The Steelers threw a TON in the redzone -- Davenport took some goalline carries away from FWP

2008?

I am guessing 4 or 5 TDs. The Steelers are going to continue throwing in the redzone, especially with Limas Sweed coming aboard, and Mendenhall is going to get atleast as many goalline carries as Davenport did last season. FWP may have more of an opportunity to break one or two with the offense opening up even more

 

[TheFanatic]

2008?

I am guessing 4 or 5 TDs. The Steelers are going to continue throwing in the redzone, especially with Limas Sweed coming aboard, and Mendenhall is going to get atleast as many goalline carries as Davenport did last season. FWP may have more of an opportunity to break one or two with the offense opening up even more

And if FWP continues his trend of dropping his YPC .3 again this year he may not get that many yards either. The guy had a 4.7 YPC in 2005, 4.4 in 2006 and 4.1 in 2007. If that trend continues the Mendenhall may be carrying more between the 20's than most expected...

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Ben and the passing game was much more efficient in the red zone last year, but the offensive line was also much less effective opening holes... still the run/pass split being 34/9 was an anomaly and will be more balanced in 2008.

 

[treat88]

2008?

I am guessing 4 or 5 TDs. The Steelers are going to continue throwing in the redzone, especially with Limas Sweed coming aboard, and Mendenhall is going to get atleast as many goalline carries as Davenport did last season. FWP may have more of an opportunity to break one or two with the offense opening up even more

And if FWP continues his trend of dropping his YPC .3 again this year he may not get that many yards either. The guy had a 4.7 YPC in 2005, 4.4 in 2006 and 4.1 in 2007. If that trend continues the Mendenhall may be carrying more between the 20's than most expected...

And likely posting a very similarly poor YPC.The root answer to the question in 07 is Bruce Arians.

In an attempt to move towards a quicker more athletic line he let the 2 best run blockers the Steelers (Kemo and Starks) have sit on the bench. He also was part of the acquisition of Mahan, possibly the worst starting C in the league last year. He then proceeded to run FWP up the gut 3 out of 4 carries. Right into the weakest area of the line. The lack of success was predictable. In fact FWP did an amazing job to post the numbers he did given the lack of O-line push and the horrific play calling in the running game.

Additionally, the Steelers as a team had an amazing low number of red zone rushes. But, and this is anecdotal, it seemed as if it was a lack of GL opportunities as well. I watched most of their games and they seemed to always be in 1st and goal from the 8, 9, or 10. Very rarely did they have the 1st and goal from inside the 5. Hence they ended up throwing a ton inside the 10.

I expect Willie's numbers to get slight uptick in TD's this year, but until Arians goes the 16 TD's are a thing of the distant past. For either Mendenhall or Parker regardless of who gets the starting job.

 

[IndyHavoc]

2008?

I am guessing 4 or 5 TDs. The Steelers are going to continue throwing in the redzone, especially with Limas Sweed coming aboard, and Mendenhall is going to get atleast as many goalline carries as Davenport did last season. FWP may have more of an opportunity to break one or two with the offense opening up even more

And if FWP continues his trend of dropping his YPC .3 again this year he may not get that many yards either. The guy had a 4.7 YPC in 2005, 4.4 in 2006 and 4.1 in 2007. If that trend continues the Mendenhall may be carrying more between the 20's than most expected...

And likely posting a very similarly poor YPC.The root answer to the question in 07 is Bruce Arians.

In an attempt to move towards a quicker more athletic line he let the 2 best run blockers the Steelers (Kemo and Starks) have sit on the bench. He also was part of the acquisition of Mahan, possibly the worst starting C in the league last year. He then proceeded to run FWP up the gut 3 out of 4 carries. Right into the weakest area of the line. The lack of success was predictable. In fact FWP did an amazing job to post the numbers he did given the lack of O-line push and the horrific play calling in the running game.

Additionally, the Steelers as a team had an amazing low number of red zone rushes. But, and this is anecdotal, it seemed as if it was a lack of GL opportunities as well. I watched most of their games and they seemed to always be in 1st and goal from the 8, 9, or 10. Very rarely did they have the 1st and goal from inside the 5. Hence they ended up throwing a ton inside the 10.

I expect Willie's numbers to get slight uptick in TD's this year, but until Arians goes the 16 TD's are a thing of the distant past.

Very . Anyone that does a bit of research (or a LOT in my case, heh) will come to these same conclusions. The relevant question for us in FF is....will anything change this season? Personally, I think the estimate of 4-5 TD's is probably right. However, just like we've seen over the past 5-8 seasons, sometimes teams decide on a major shift in RZ strategy from season to season. There's an outside chance that the Steelers leverage their passing efficiancy from last season in the RZ to "pull the rug" out of opposing DC's. I'm not going to be shocked to see Big Ben's TD #'s plummet and both RM and FWP getting 8-10 TD's a piece.

 

[stbugs]

2008?

I am guessing 4 or 5 TDs. The Steelers are going to continue throwing in the redzone, especially with Limas Sweed coming aboard, and Mendenhall is going to get atleast as many goalline carries as Davenport did last season. FWP may have more of an opportunity to break one or two with the offense opening up even more

And if FWP continues his trend of dropping his YPC .3 again this year he may not get that many yards either. The guy had a 4.7 YPC in 2005, 4.4 in 2006 and 4.1 in 2007. If that trend continues the Mendenhall may be carrying more between the 20's than most expected...

Actually, the trend was pretty simple. In 2005, FWP got no short attempts. Look at Bettis' 3.3 ypc above. Add in those short carries to FWP in 2006 and FWP was the same as 2005, but the short attempts took down the overall average. As treat88 mentioned above, 2007 was awful for the run and I agree it was very, very much the coaching change. If Cowher was still there in 2007, I think you would have seen a very similar season to 2006, i.e. double digit TDs.I dropped FWP after the injury last year because even though I could have kept him for a high draft pick, I expect 2008 to be like 2007 and even with a few more TDs, he is no longer a great player in a PPR league and so he wouldn't be one of my 3 keepers. If Cowher was still there, he might be my franchise keeper, but the new coaching philosophy was pretty clear and FWP of 2006 is long gone IMHO.