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Will Etienne Score Less PPR Fantasy Points in 2023 than he did in 2022? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter TripItUp
- Start date
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
*fewer
No, he will score more.
Why is there no “about the same” option?
No, he will score more.
Why is there no “about the same” option?
zamboni
Footballguy
I can’t answer until I see this correction.
Paying homage to my HS English teacher.
TripItUp
Footballguy
So the presence of Bigsby and the talk about lightening his load doesn't concern you because you anticipate increased efficiency and/or more TDs?
TripItUp
Footballguy
because he's not going to score the same.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
But he could
Terpman22
Footballguy
No it doesn't. ETN is a superior talent, and talk in May/June doesn't really sway me too much in all honesty. I also anticipate him getting more targets in the receiving game as well. For a guy coming back of LisFranc year 1, he surpassed a lot of expectations. Year 2, healthy, more familiarity with the system, coaches, chemistry with O line and Trevor Lawrence makes me think "yeah, he gone be better this year"
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Exactly all of this. Especially the OTA hype.
Wait, ya mean teams are happy with the players they drafted and are saying nice things about them? Shut the front door!
If this was a real money bet instead of a poll there is no way anyone should be betting "more" because it's a total points bet and now if he misses a few games he'll need to be considerably better.
PPG is what I'll focus on here. In his 6 games with James Robinson he averaged 9 carries, a little over 2 receptions, played just a hair over 30 snaps a game, never scored and averaged 9.7 ppr fantasy points.
He had one game without Robinson he only played 5 snaps so I'm going to toss that game out of existence and I will include his two post season games to give me 12 games without Robinson or much comp. In those 12 games his snaps were over 51, he averaged 17.6 carries a game but still only 2.3 receptions, scored 7 TD's though and he put up 14.36 PPR points per game which would be RB16 last year.
I expect he will fall somewhere in between his 9.7 fantasy points per game with Robinson and the 14.36 he scored without him. I absolutely expect Bigby to drain off that workload he saw after Robinson left.
In total ETN scored 12.83 fantasy points a game last year if I'm looking at his full 18 games which includes both playoff games and omits his 5 snap game. That's a tough call to me as I expect him to be right about that range again. I still bet under in this poll though because again the poll is total points and if he misses a few games going to be tough to score more.
PPG is what I'll focus on here. In his 6 games with James Robinson he averaged 9 carries, a little over 2 receptions, played just a hair over 30 snaps a game, never scored and averaged 9.7 ppr fantasy points.
He had one game without Robinson he only played 5 snaps so I'm going to toss that game out of existence and I will include his two post season games to give me 12 games without Robinson or much comp. In those 12 games his snaps were over 51, he averaged 17.6 carries a game but still only 2.3 receptions, scored 7 TD's though and he put up 14.36 PPR points per game which would be RB16 last year.
I expect he will fall somewhere in between his 9.7 fantasy points per game with Robinson and the 14.36 he scored without him. I absolutely expect Bigby to drain off that workload he saw after Robinson left.
In total ETN scored 12.83 fantasy points a game last year if I'm looking at his full 18 games which includes both playoff games and omits his 5 snap game. That's a tough call to me as I expect him to be right about that range again. I still bet under in this poll though because again the poll is total points and if he misses a few games going to be tough to score more.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
We’re all accountable now.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Yes - I’m hoping the implication this is more ppg based since we can’t really predict an injury. If injury is factored in, “less” is the far safer option.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Always. Like taking “the field” vs a specific player.
I vote in polls like this assuming good health.
For all we know, Tank is the Jag TB who will get hurt.
TripItUp
Footballguy
Sure, I think most are on the same page here.
This isn't supposed to be a gotcha poll. Just genuinely interested how many other people share my Etienne concerns.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I don’t think we know enough about ETN to make any sort of definitive statement about what his ceiling is, since everything we know is based on his 1st year returning from significant injury. And by all accounts, being worked back slowly.
Maybe some of his runs this year turn into breakaway runs like he had in college - maybe they do throw to him more now that he’s had a year to grow into the offense scheme.
He’s also likely a better pass protector than Tank, who isn’t a particularly good receiver.
Lots of variables in JAX. I’m excited about their offense and investing wherever I can. IMO Tank is being overvalued as the shiny new toy. I expect he’ll get GL touches, but I also expect JAX to throw in the red zone quite a bit.
Everything in that backfield is TBD at the moment, but ETN now comes in as the incumbent.
I don't agree with this opinion.
I'll be surprised if the offense does not take a significant jump and enter the elite range.
All the second year in the system stuff but most of all a true #1WR which will put everyone in their proper place and make all the receivers better.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Makes the world go ‘round.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I’d say that’s TBD as well. I’m not sure what Ridley will be after his time away.
Could be a true WR1, or he could be interchangeable with Zay Jones & Kirk.
Wide range of possible outcomes there.
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We'll see but I could not feel any stronger that Ridley is a WR1 and don't think the other two are remotely in his class. I do not see a wide range of outcomes.
Jaguars were the 7th best offense in the league last season. A significant jump would make them best in the league, not just elite. I'd bet against that.
They are starting 2 new starters at OT, which long-term will probably be an upgrade, but likely not right away.
I think it's a top 5 offense. Only holdup is they play such an easy schedule they might not need to get into many shootouts.
ETA-I see they were tied for 9th most points scored. Maybe you meant yards by best, I meant points. Whatever though because yards or points as long as Trevor is healthy they will be increasing it.
Terpman22
Footballguy
Boy did he! And yet I still got dynasty owners offering me this garbage:
Calvin Ridley
1st round pick
for
ETN
Rashee Rice
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Even worse because Rice is on the verge of a breakout and he's potentially the future top target for Mahomes. That guy is trying to absolutely screw you.
I saw a recent Youtube where they were earnestly debating the RB2 between CMC, Breece and ETN. You should find that and link it your F OFF decline.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Yeah well he is the 3rd highest scoring RB back at this point and the 5th best player by VBD.
How he has done that seems sustainable and there may be some more meat left on the bone as well.
Terpman22
Footballguy
LOL he originally offered a 1st alone. My response was basically "So I drafted him 1.5 overall, sat on him for a full injury season, now he is RB3 this year in his 3rd year and to you, his appropriate value is...a 1st round pick? Help me make it make sense" Then sent this one "Sent you a big boy offer"
Its this guys' MO, unless he absolutely gets a deal like buying Alaska for $.02 per acre, he ain't gonna do it.
Anyway, back to ETN. Loving just how he plays. Very electric guy, should be fun to watch as the years go by and he, Lawrence and Dougie P grow together.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I appreciate that post a lot because I know I am more emotional than you and am deeeeeeeply invested in ETN so it's nice seeing you back me up. IMO, he broke his foot rookie year. That's an unfortunate accident but this here is what ETN has always been. He was destined to be an excellent NFL RB.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Yeah some people are just like that. We all have them in some leagues. In my experience, you just have to laugh, they usually don't do well because they aren't willing to make those tough moves. In redraft, I just went though this. I had too much WR depth and needed RB depth, the other owner was in the reverse spot. I inquired about Roschon or Mattison just looking for some depth. He comes back with Puka for Mattison. Like bro, gtfo. He makes some other offers which are basically the same thing but just with other randos included.
I finally tell him, if you want Puka you need to put up ETN. "No way, I would never trade ETN. He's one of the best players in fantasy you are crazy to even ask that. No f'n way I trade ETN." To which I copied his reply and just replaced "ETN" with "PUKA"
Ilov80s
Footballguy
You got a great deal getting him at 1.5 in that rookie draft. He and Chase were 1/2 for me with a bullet (I am rarely this correct btw). And yeah, he is in his peak years. We very well may be talking about him as RB1 in dynasty in 3 months. I know Bijan is the chosen one, but we might...just maybe.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I don't think it's even debatable who was the better RB between him and Najee Harris anymore.
This was of course a comparison because they were drafted back to back in 2021 and the Steelers took Harris the pick before the Jaguars took ETN. I said at the time the Steelers took the wrong RB.
All dynasty rankings had Harris ahead of ETN and for good reason considering the Steelers history and track record of utilization of their RBs.
But in dynasty you want to take the player who is the better talent and therefore likely to have the better career, not who would be better in 2021. In my view a widespread incorrect decision by rankers almost across the board. No question in my mind that ETN was the more talented player and even ideal situation that Harris was in should not have trumped that.
If ETN would have come out in 2020 as expected he may have been the top RB drafted that year as well, although I think Taylor and Swift were closer to ETN in terms of talent than Harris was/is.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Are you single? I could listen to you talk about ETN all day lol. But I do agree, I get how the Pitt situation influenced people but to me it was such a chasm between the talent levels. It was 3-4 years of watching elite level college football games and just being like "this ETN kid is different". Like sure this Ohio State team probably has 8 or 9 future NFL players on their defense but ETN has made maybe 3 or 4 game tilting plays against them. Plays that most NFL backs probably couldn't make. Meanwhile, Harris is your guy if you just want to grind it out 3.4 yards at a time.
2020 is an interesting question, but I would rather have ETN than Swift, CEH, Akers and even JT.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
At the time it was ETN Swift and Taylor all pretty tightly packed together.
It was a bit surprising to me Swift and Taylor fell to the 2nd Round.
CEH kind of came out of left field. Imagine if ETN had declared and KC took him instead of CEH. That would have been bonkers hype that I dont know if even ETN could live up to.
I do regret the mistake of ranking CEH #1 that year because of the situation. Just another example of that being a bad process. It never felt right doing that even when I did. Just a reminder to stick to one's guns on the talent evaluation.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
That is what kids do to their parents. The shoe will be on the other foot when your son has kids.
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