Will you avoid drafting Pitt, Clev, Det, Mia, and NE QBs, WRs, and TEs (1 Viewer)

[bucsbaby]

I know that defenses change year to year, but I'm thinking that average pass defence (in terms of passing yds allowed/game) from the previous year is still probably a decent measure to evaluate the schedules that QBs, WRs, and TEs face. Also granted, what makes for a good/bad pass def for a WR isn't necessarily the same as for a TE. However, that being said, using stats from nfl.com, I've computed that the worst average pass defenses faced (fantasy season [wks 1-13] and playoffs [wks 14-16]) are as follows (1 [best pdef] to 32 [worst pdef]):

Team Avg PDef Season Avg PDef Playoffs

Steelers 13.46666667 3.666666667

Browns 13.33333333 5.333333333

Lions 12.66666667 13

Dolphins 12.26666667 11.66666667

Patriots 12.2 6.666666667

With the median for pdefs being 16.5, the % deviation from this median is thus as follows:

Team % worse Season % worse Playoffs

Steelers -0.183838384 -0.777777778

Browns -0.191919192 -0.676767677

Lions -0.232323232 -0.212121212

Dolphins -0.256565657 -0.292929293

Patriots -0.260606061 -0.595959596

Are there QBs, WRs, and/or TEs from these teams that you're passing over due to schedule concerns? Conversely, are there those that you think will overcome these schedules to justify their adp?

 

[Ace08]

The basic underlying theme here is the fact that if you have the #1 WR from any of those teams they will draw the #1 CB from those respective good pass D's. While there is some merit to this thought process I don't know how much you would discount the respective studs on those teams.

The interesting thing is...I'd argue these stats have little bearing on a guy like Wes Welker. He primarily works out of the slot and catches a ton of short passes which no defense will be able to shut down consistently.

 

[Clifford]

Put away the stats dude. Paralysis by analysis right here

 

[killrobotkill]

And pass up on Aaron Hernandez? No way.

 

[dapunisher]

Speaking of stats, I just heard Christopher Harris of ESPN cite this one: For the past 5 seasons, the consensus preseason #1 fantasy defense has failed to finish in the Top 12 for that season.

And I agree with Clifford that the OP is overthinking this.