WR Courtland Sutton, DEN (1 Viewer)

[ZWK]

Chubb was the 4th RB taken in the NFL draft and the 4th ranked RB for fantasy drafts (with Guice ahead of him instead of Michel). Sutton was the 3rd WR taken in the NFL draft and the 3rd ranked WR for fantasy drafts; 8 RBs also went ahead of him in fantasy drafts (5 who went ahead of him in the NFL draft, and 3 others who went within the 32 picks after him). Drafting them much earlier than where they were typically going required thinking that you were better than the NFL teams at talent evaluation, in addition to not worrying about situation.

 

[Bronco Billy]

Chubb was the 4th RB taken in the NFL draft and the 4th ranked RB for fantasy drafts (with Guice ahead of him instead of Michel). Sutton was the 3rd WR taken in the NFL draft and the 3rd ranked WR for fantasy drafts; 8 RBs also went ahead of him in fantasy drafts (5 who went ahead of him in the NFL draft, and 3 others who went within the 32 picks after him). Drafting them much earlier than where they were typically going required thinking that you were better than the NFL teams at talent evaluation, in addition to not worrying about situation.

And yet here we are, and there were people questioning the wisdom of drafting all those RBs ahead of guys like Sutton.

 

[Angry spiders]

Odd to compare Sutton’s situation to those two. Sutton had to persevere at a position that has a fairly steep learning curve with two well established proven vets in front of him.  Penny and RoJo were given every opportunity to make the starting job their own at a position where rookies can thrive and ended up blocked by journeyman level talent because they couldn’t get it done on the field.

it was more to say things change fast...…..would Sutton go behind Rojo & penny if we drafted now? probably not

 

[Bronco Billy]

it was more to say things change fast...…..would Sutton go behind Rojo & penny if we drafted now? probably not

Thanks for clarifying.  I misunderstood.

 

[lod001]

Chubb was the 4th RB taken in the NFL draft and the 4th ranked RB for fantasy drafts (with Guice ahead of him instead of Michel). Sutton was the 3rd WR taken in the NFL draft and the 3rd ranked WR for fantasy drafts; 8 RBs also went ahead of him in fantasy drafts (5 who went ahead of him in the NFL draft, and 3 others who went within the 32 picks after him). Drafting them much earlier than where they were typically going required thinking that you were better than the NFL teams at talent evaluation, in addition to not worrying about situation.

Took him at #4,   in dynasty. Saw him as a mini Calvin Johnson.

 

[Football Jones]

Took him at #4,   in dynasty. Saw him as a mini Calvin Johnson.

Good against the grain pick there. I didn't have a high pick, but if I had, my plan was to trade down, acquire compensation, & take advantage of this underrated WR class.

I ended up trading for 2.2 to take Sutton which I thought was a steal.

 

[Interseptopus]

Took him at #4,   in dynasty. Saw him as a mini Calvin Johnson.

and I'm sure you were scoffed at. nice grab. I would have risked trading down. in fact, I did risk it and it bit me in the dupa. That's the league I traded yeldon for him. worked out in the end but lesson learned. grab your guy when you want him

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

I'd be curious as to what his trade value looks like right now.  I'm sure that he's been moved in some leagues since this news broke.

I was offered AJ Green and a 2nd for Sutton.  16 team dynasty league with contract years. AJ is on his last year and I declined. 

 

[Conan Troutman]

Chubb was the 4th RB taken in the NFL draft and the 4th ranked RB for fantasy drafts (with Guice ahead of him instead of Michel). Sutton was the 3rd WR taken in the NFL draft and the 3rd ranked WR for fantasy drafts; 8 RBs also went ahead of him in fantasy drafts (5 who went ahead of him in the NFL draft, and 3 others who went within the 32 picks after him). Drafting them much earlier than where they were typically going required thinking that you were better than the NFL teams at talent evaluation, in addition to not worrying about situation.

Eh, the draft is a crapshoot at worst and inaccurate science at best. Draft spot is probably the single most important factor in evaluating fantasy talent (and which round plays a huge role), but even the single most important factor is just one factor of many. Besides, you don't get bragging rights for following the herd and your misses are easily ignored and forgotten. 

 

[Interseptopus]

I'd be curious as to what his trade value looks like right now.  I'm sure that he's been moved in some leagues since this news broke.

I'm not so sure his owners are selling since this news broke. why hold onto a guy who seems to be trending up? would be a sell low. I suppose unless you "ended up with him" in your draft, convinced he cant play, and figure now is his sell high moment. but you're likely not getting a kings ransom

I've had people offer me for sutton. at this point I'm not sure I'd take 2 first rounders. I think sutton can be pretty good; a bird in hand is worth two in the bush 

 

[BigSteelThrill]

I'm not so sure his owners are selling since this news broke. why hold onto a guy who seems to be trending up? would be a sell low.

Turned down a 1st -- 16 team (3 keeper) league.  That puts his value in the top 48 or so going forward for both the person making the offer and from refusing it. Now in the off-season he might not be quite as valuable, but that's where it is right now.

 

[ex-ghost]

Turned down a 1st -- 16 team (3 keeper) league.  That puts his value in the top 48 or so going forward for both the person making the offer and from refusing it. Now in the off-season he might not be quite as valuable, but that's where it is right now.

A mid-1 is not going to pry him from many owners, for sure.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

A mid-1 is not going to pry him from many owners, for sure.

Good point.  The team who made the offer currently sits tied for the 3-4-5-6 draft slot for next year. I refused as the #5 record/#3 points team.

 

[Interseptopus]

Good point.  The team who made the offer currently sits tied for the 3-4-5-6 draft slot for next year. I refused as the #5 record/#3 points team.

I really like the top 4 or 5 WRs in next years draft class. some big game changers. But Sutton is the WR1 in my mind from this class. He has top 5 potential and hes extremely young. I'm not sure I'd take any of the WRs in 2019 over Sutton, and that's mostly because I think Sutton has shown enough to prove he can be a good NFL WR. 

If you offered me the guaranteed 1.1 for 2019 for Sutton 2 months ago I may have taken it because sutton had not proven much of anything yet, minus some major camp hype 

 

[BigSteelThrill]

 mostly because I think Sutton has shown enough

Agree 100%.  We got to remove a lot of the question marks. 

 

[Milkman]

I love his talent as much as anybody but lets pump the breaks a little. He cleared one of the predraft hurdles he had but he still has a below average QB throwing to him........

 

[flapgreen]

Full steam ahead. Not pumping the brakes! 

 

[runner06]

So according to fantasypros.com, he's averaged playing 69% of the team's snaps through the first eight weeks. Guys like Mike Evans, Tyreek Hill, Michael Thomas, and Brandin Cooks seem to play about 85% to 95% of their teams snaps. The arrow is certainly trending upwards since trading away Demaryius Thomas suggests confidence in Sutton, but do people expect Sutton to receive significantly more targets now that Thomas is gone?

 

[flapgreen]

Yes

 

[Bronco Billy]

So according to fantasypros.com, he's averaged playing 69% of the team's snaps through the first eight weeks. Guys like Mike Evans, Tyreek Hill, Michael Thomas, and Brandin Cooks seem to play about 85% to 95% of their teams snaps. The arrow is certainly trending upwards since trading away Demaryius Thomas suggests confidence in Sutton, but do people expect Sutton to receive significantly more targets now that Thomas is gone?

As the starting WR rather than WR3?  Yes.  Sutton has averaged 4.6 targets over the past 5 weeks while DT averaged 6.  Figuring Sutton just slides into DT’s role, he assumes those 6 targets per game.  The question is what happens to the targets that used to be Suttons.  Is another player prepared to simply slide seamlessly into what was Sutton’s role?  If not, he figures to get a share of those targets too..

However, regardless he still has Keenum throwing to him, which certainly limits his production.  But he should be the strongly preferred target in the red zone, which may mitigate that a bit.  Hopefully he’ll be a solid FF WR2 moving forward this year.

.

 

[Football Jones]

So according to fantasypros.com, he's averaged playing 69% of the team's snaps through the first eight weeks. Guys like Mike Evans, Tyreek Hill, Michael Thomas, and Brandin Cooks seem to play about 85% to 95% of their teams snaps. The arrow is certainly trending upwards since trading away Demaryius Thomas suggests confidence in Sutton, but do people expect Sutton to receive significantly more targets now that Thomas is gone?

His targets will definitely go up. He was already playing a fair amount, but his snap percentage will go up, as well.

My dynasty league is non-PPR (which I much prefer for real-world reasons) & I view Sutton as a near-perfect non-PPR WR prospect. 

Sure, I’d like a better QB, but Keenum is good enough to make Sutton a top FF asset given his ability. I’m not sure I ever remember being more confident a WR will eventually be a stud. 

 

[BigSteelThrill]

I love his talent as much as anybody but lets pump the breaks a little. He cleared one of the predraft hurdles he had but he still has a below average QB throwing to him........

If he maintain Thomas' catches, with the productivity Sutton has already shown thus far he will be a damn good player. And Thomas already had Keenum throwing to him (as did Thielen and DIggs last year) and that is while ESanders is on pace for 100-1320-8.

 

[-X-]

Really want to start Sutton this week, but my opponent has E. Sanders and I prefer to see how the target distribution shakes out. 

 

[need2know]

If he maintain Thomas' catches, with the productivity Sutton has already shown thus far he will be a damn good player. And Thomas already had Keenum throwing to him (as did Thielen and DIggs last year) and that is while ESanders is on pace for 100-1320-8.

Yeah keenum sucks but these guys are still putting up numbers.  Mostly because they have to throw.  Defense stinks

 

[lod001]

and I'm sure you were scoffed at. nice grab. I would have risked trading down. in fact, I did risk it and it bit me in the dupa. That's the league I traded yeldon for him. worked out in the end but lesson learned. grab your guy when you want him

Not really on that one because I really needed WR help, there were a lot of RBs and guys needed RBs.

 

[Faust]

Fantasy fallout: Trades boost Courtland Sutton, Aaron Jones, Carson Wentz

Excerpt:

Sutton's opportunity is obvious. Legwold wrote that the Broncos' trade of longtime receiver Demaryius Thomas to the Houston Texans means "it's Sutton's time." The 6-foot-4, 216-pound rookie was already leading the Broncos with 19.1 yards per reception (17 catches for 324 yards and two touchdowns) as their No. 3 receiver before the trade. And general manager John Elway specifically said, "We thought this would give Courtland a chance to get out there and play more and be a bigger part of it because we think he's ready to go."

Legwold cautioned that Sutton will now be facing more No. 2 cornerbacks, and even No. 1 cornerbacks on occasion, than he did before. But Legwold said Sutton's ability to make contested catches should help him.

Also, Sutton was playing a healthy 47 snaps per game already, but Legwold said he almost always came off the field in two-receiver/two-tight end sets, which won't be the case now. And he should get more red zone looks as a result.

 

[Long Ball Larry]

i didn't really see this game?  anyone with insight?  just keenum not being great and houston being a decent pass D?

 

[Buck Bradcanon]

i didn't really see this game?  anyone with insight?  just keenum not being great and houston being a decent pass D?

1st quarter he had a one on one matchup and had a 35yard TD poked out of his hands on a good play by the DB.  Prolly could have caught it but it was a nice defensive play.  Better days ahead.

Their spare TE had 10 grabs.

 

[PhantomJB]

i didn't really see this game?  anyone with insight?  just keenum not being great and houston being a decent pass D?

Denver appeared to have a quick strike/short pass game plan a) to avoid Texans' pass rush from Watt and Clowney and b) to attempt to minimize Keenum interceptions. Very few passes >10 yds in the air and obviously a ton of targets to the TE's. It was an effective strategy.

The bulk of Sutton's yardage came on YAC where he caught short passes and then was beastly mowing down defenders and breaking tackles. Not enough time for Keenum in the pocket for longer route options to develop.

More than a few times I thought Musgrave should have had Keenum throw jump balls to Sutton in the red zone but disappointed not to see any...it was reported Sutton dropped a TD pass but personally I did not see that.

Schedule not too difficult down the stretch so I'm still confident he'll provide solid WR2 numbers going forward

 

[Shawnky]

He did drop what should have been an easy TD pass in the first half.  DB knocked it out of his hands.

 

[PhantomJB]

1st quarter he had a one on one matchup and had a 35yard TD poked out of his hands on a good play by the DB.  Prolly could have caught it but it was a nice defensive play.  Better days ahead.

Their spare TE had 10 grabs.

If that's what the media is calling the drop then I would agree ...more of a good pass breakup than unforced error.

 

[lod001]

If that's what the media is calling the drop then I would agree ...more of a good pass breakup than unforced error.

Yeah that's the one. Tough pass to bring down.

 

[BlueDredSo]

What is the general consensus here? Footballguys is clearly pretty high on him, and I don't really understand it...yet. A below avg QB throwing him the ball who only has 11 TDs on the year, and he replaced a WR consistently ranked everywhere in the low to mid 20's among WRs (if not lower). Where are these projected stats coming from? If Sanders and Thomas were both gone I could get on board, but what about Denver's passing game says their top 2 WRs are deserving of being where they are in the Top 200 Forward?

I'm in a best ball league where we only get 4 WRs. I'm considering dropping Baldwin for him, but then thought "Why?" (if you're curious my other WRs are Hopkins, Golladay & Robinson

 

[White Lightning]

I take the FBG recommendations on Denver WR with a grain of salt. I distinctly remember Sigmund and Cecil (Bronco beat writer) fawning over Cody Latimer for a couple years, only to have him never materialize. I'm a Sutton owner and I would love for him to supplant my current No 2 WR J. Gordon, but I'm afraid that he won't the amount of targets needed to make that jump.

 

[ffmail4me]

I just offered Cooper and what will probably be an early to mid 2nd for Sutton and a very late 1st and was turned down, for what that's worth trying to judge his value...

 

[lod001]

I take the FBG recommendations on Denver WR with a grain of salt. I distinctly remember Sigmund and Cecil (Bronco beat writer) fawning over Cody Latimer for a couple years, only to have him never materialize. I'm a Sutton owner and I would love for him to supplant my current No 2 WR J. Gordon, but I'm afraid that he won't the amount of targets needed to make that jump.

I was not high on Latimer. I am super high on Sutton. He's got the work ethic that Latimer didn't have. QB upgrade would be very nice.

 

[BlueDredSo]

I was not high on Latimer. I am super high on Sutton. He's got the work ethic that Latimer didn't have. QB upgrade would be very nice.

I'm sure he''ll be awesome, especially with a better QB. I just don't know if I see it happening this year. It's not like DT was lighting it up before going to Houston.

 

[3nOut]

Not sure this is the value you will get in your league, but I picked up Sutton off the WW and traded him to a WR-needy team for Breida (he had a surplus of RBs). 

 

[ATB]

What is the general consensus here? Footballguys is clearly pretty high on him, and I don't really understand it...yet. A below avg QB throwing him the ball who only has 11 TDs on the year, and he replaced a WR consistently ranked everywhere in the low to mid 20's among WRs (if not lower). Where are these projected stats coming from? If Sanders and Thomas were both gone I could get on board, but what about Denver's passing game says their top 2 WRs are deserving of being where they are in the Top 200 Forward?

I'm in a best ball league where we only get 4 WRs. I'm considering dropping Baldwin for him, but then thought "Why?" (if you're curious my other WRs are Hopkins, Golladay & Robinson

I’m pretty sure it’s as simple as his consistency before the DT trade plus the vacated targets. He should be dependable most week for 12+ points in PPR with TD upside. 

I’ll take that from my WR2. 

 

[VikingFrog]

Somehow I ended up owning both Sutton and Sanders in a few leagues. Now trying to play the coin flip of who will eat today.

 

[sneakerfreak]

In the same situation, starting both, and not feeling particularly confident in that decision. I have a feeling we will se a similar approach as against Houston with more involvement of the TEs to avoid the pass rush.

 

[VikingFrog]

In the same situation, starting both, and not feeling particularly confident in that decision. I have a feeling we will se a similar approach as against Houston with more involvement of the TEs to avoid the pass rush.

I think I’m going Sutton. Mainly on wishful thinking as I’m in a must win situation in one league (where I own neither) and opponent has Sanders. So I’m crossing my fingers and rolling out Sutton where I have him.

 

[zftcg]

Own Sanders and Sutton in different leagues. Was considering starting Sutton over John Brown because of the uncertainty surrounding Baltimore QB, but one thing that worried me was doubling down on the Denver passing game in a bad matchup.

 

[sneakerfreak]

LG Max Garcia was also lost to IR so the Denver OL is not exactly in great shape either.

 

[Faust]

Courtland Sutton absorbed three of six targets for 78 yards Sunday in the Broncos’ Week 11 win over Los Angeles.

As he has throughout the year, Sutton made his living off big plays. The rookie aided a touchdown drive with a 39-yard grab to open the fourth quarter, then made his biggest contribution of the afternoon by pulling in a 30-yard pass from Case Keenum on the Broncos' final possession. That put Denver in field goal range with 20 seconds left in regulation. The 78 yards matched a career-high for Sutton, who has now cleared 50 yards receiving in four of his last five contests. Sutton will try to make it five out of six when he takes the field next week against the Steelers.

Nov 18 - 8:27 PM

 

[flapgreen]

What a letdown recently. 

 

[Sarlakticacid]

Hopefully that last key grab will lead to more targets 

in saying that, a bunch of other rookie WRs have blown up this year when will Sutton? It may be a case of who is delivering the ball

 

[Bronco Billy]

Hopefully that last key grab will lead to more targets 

in saying that, a bunch of other rookie WRs have blown up this year when will Sutton? It may be a case of who is delivering the ball

It’s difficult for a QB dependent player like Sutton to blow up when his QB is so limited and the team is so dysfunctional and poorly coached.

 

[Flying Elvis]

Just as a value note...

Prior to week 6 I traded my 2019 1st (hopefully very late) and Sutton, selected @ 2.02 in my 12 team dynasty, for Julio Jones and a 2019 5th. 3 weeks later was the trade deadline move on DT, at which point I probably would have been more hesitant to make the same deal. 

I was happy with it then, and am still happy now. I still really like Sutton but Julio gives me the stud starter for this year (hopefully 2-3 more) and I have several other 1st/2nd year WRs (Coutee / Miller / BMW) that need to grow so that mitigated the loss of Sutton. 

 

[Interseptopus]

Just as a value note...

Prior to week 6 I traded my 2019 1st (hopefully very late) and Sutton, selected @ 2.02 in my 12 team dynasty, for Julio Jones and a 2019 5th. 3 weeks later was the trade deadline move on DT, at which point I probably would have been more hesitant to make the same deal. 

I was happy with it then, and am still happy now. I still really like Sutton but Julio gives me the stud starter for this year (hopefully 2-3 more) and I have several other 1st/2nd year WRs (Coutee / Miller / BMW) that need to grow so that mitigated the loss of Sutton. 

 

I'm not sure I would have done that deal, in fact I know I wouldn't have done it. I think you will regret this deal, but to each their own. Hope you take it all this season.