DJ Moore is neck-and-neck with James Washington for
my formula's top WR, which is pretty strange because my formula puts a lot of weight on yards per target and Moore's was terrible. In my
Top Rated tab of the 111 WRs that my formula likes most since 2006, only 1 player out of 111 is below 8 YPT (Jarrett Dillard), and DJ Moore will be joining him with 7.95 YPT.
So why does my formula still love Moore? Three things.
First of all, even though he wasn't efficient on a per-target basis, Moore basically was the Terrapins passing offense. He accounted for 53% of their passing yards and 53% of their passing TDs. It's hard to be efficient when the defense knows where the ball is going, and getting force-fed the ball is a good sign about a receiver's skills.
Second of all, the Maryland passing game was generally terrible. Reports before the offseason were that transfer
Caleb Henderson is the favorite to win Maryland’s QB job, but he dealt with offseason injuries and never panned out. Tyrell Pigrome was the opening day starter, and tore is ACL during that game. Kasim Hill took over and lasted about a game and a half before tearing his ACL. So Maryland's third or fourth string QB, Max Bortenschlager, led the offense for most of the season, though his
preseason profile said "With Pigrome’s experience and explosiveness and Caleb Henderson and Kasim Hill’s skill sets, it’s tough to see exactly where Bortenschlager could find a role for himself." Bortenschlager missed a bit of time too, and the guy below him on the depth chart, walk-on Ryan Brand, wound up throwing more passes than Pigrome+Hill+Henderson combined. On the season, Maryland QBs threw for 6.1 yards per attempt,
ranking 119th out of 130, which makes Moore's 7.95 YPT look not so bad actually. That's 80/1033/8 on 130 attempts when throwing to Moore (7.95 YPT) and 95/907/7 on 188 attempts when throwing elsewhere (4.82 YPT).
So we have a guy with a pretty good basic statline (80/1033/8), who accounted for a huge fraction of his team's offense, with efficiency numbers that are poor but much better than his teammates. Not the best production profile, but pretty strong - 8th best in this draft class and above-threshold for my production-first formulas. Other players with a similar production profile include AJ Jenkins (2011), Calvin Johnson (2006), Jermaine Kearse (2010), and Keenan Allen (2012).
Then at the
combine, thing three: Moore dominated. Very good speed (4.42) and great explosiveness (39.5" vert, 11'0" broad) with acceptable size (6'0", 210 lbs.). That's a good sign for his game translating to the NFL level. It vaulted him to the top 2 alongside Washington, and ahead of guys with better production but meh athleticism (e.g., Jordan Lasley) or questionable size (e.g., Cedrick Wilson).
And as more advanced stats have come in, they haven't shifted things much - PFF has Moore with above average yards after the catch and a slightly worse than average drop rate, and Matt Harmon's
Reception Perception numbers have Moore above average at getting open (though not quite as good as
James Washington, which has allowed Washington to edge in front).