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WR Jerry Jeudy, CLE (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Soulfly3
Footballguy
Wanna see Jeudy on my roster? I'm not selling, no. That'd be silly.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Aren't we past the point of not selling? Seriously.
Soulfly3
Footballguy
I hope you own him. You'll enjoy it.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
You'll own him in every league. Should be cheap
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Unfortunately only in one or two leagues. I’m trying to fix that.
The Future Champs
Footballguy
True, but there's a significant chance that Jeudy's draft capital plus this contract moves Jeudy into the HOF of dumpster fires.
Soulfly3
Footballguy
Just the HoF of solid fantasy szns for little/no cost
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
From a contract perspective it was an awful move by the Brown’s. They overpaid, hard to argue otherwise. Jeudy could go on to be a pro-bowler and it would not take away the fact that they overpaid at the time of signing. It seems more like it should have been a one year prove-it deal (let him play out his fifth year option) versus a large extension. If Cooper stays, it makes it highly unlikely Jeudy statistically blows up (also a surging Njoku to share with). Jeudy did not earn that contract with his play, the Brown’s are reaching in hope he becomes something he has not so far (just like the Bronco’s waited to see for four years). When you have a positional weakness and you trade a player of that position, it is usually not a good sign.
From a FF perspective, I would be more optimistic if Flacco was the QB. Watson (another awful contract) did not look like a good quarterback last season and I have doubts he will ever return to his “pre-massage” form. Maybe they both turn things around, but I doubt I will be rostering either one of them.
I am not hating on the Brown’s either, they have just made a couple of poor front office choices. I love their coach and admire what they were able to accomplish last season with a quarterback coming off the street. I will say it is a tough division and I understand the need to add pieces to compete, I am just shocked that they ended up with the figures they did for a player who has underperformed the first four years of his career.
What exactly is Jeudy’s upside in this offense anyway, 800-900 yards? Cooper, Njoku, and Moore are all more familiar with the offense and Watson. Then you have the Watson factor as well (returning to closer to form) which presents a tough hill to climb for big numbers.
From a FF perspective, I would be more optimistic if Flacco was the QB. Watson (another awful contract) did not look like a good quarterback last season and I have doubts he will ever return to his “pre-massage” form. Maybe they both turn things around, but I doubt I will be rostering either one of them.
I am not hating on the Brown’s either, they have just made a couple of poor front office choices. I love their coach and admire what they were able to accomplish last season with a quarterback coming off the street. I will say it is a tough division and I understand the need to add pieces to compete, I am just shocked that they ended up with the figures they did for a player who has underperformed the first four years of his career.
What exactly is Jeudy’s upside in this offense anyway, 800-900 yards? Cooper, Njoku, and Moore are all more familiar with the offense and Watson. Then you have the Watson factor as well (returning to closer to form) which presents a tough hill to climb for big numbers.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Explain "little/no cost" for us?
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
The Browns were on the hook for $13 million guaranteed for this year and had paid two late round picks, they were going to extend him because no one pays out that much loot and picks for a one-year rental, so the deal is basically $28 mill for two years based on upside of a guy picked 15th who definitely has skillz but from all accounts is a knucklehead.
Gamble is basically that he has had poor QB play and sketchy coaching and that he matures which is 'possible' at age 24 but I don't care because the guy has produced #2 WR numbers and that is his role and he's better than Moore.
I have him with 900 yards and 2 to 3 TDs on the year at $13 to $14 mill for those numbers and I'm fine with that since the cost is late picks and a bit extra cash.
Add, the Browns had zero WRs under contract past this season and now have one, with skilz and upside at age 24 who isn't cooked IMHO. He has upside.
Gamble is basically that he has had poor QB play and sketchy coaching and that he matures which is 'possible' at age 24 but I don't care because the guy has produced #2 WR numbers and that is his role and he's better than Moore.
I have him with 900 yards and 2 to 3 TDs on the year at $13 to $14 mill for those numbers and I'm fine with that since the cost is late picks and a bit extra cash.
Add, the Browns had zero WRs under contract past this season and now have one, with skilz and upside at age 24 who isn't cooked IMHO. He has upside.
Soulfly3
Footballguy
If you want to acquire him, apparently he costs absolutely nothing.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Cap space matters ya know
I assumed everyone knew it was only about $28M in new guarantees but with a chunk of his 2026 base pay guaranteed it's almost essentially locks in that year as well.
So really if they had not extended him he was going to run about $13M for this year with the cap hit spread over the next few years.
His extension really boils to adding two guaranteed years to that deal for about $35m with a team option for another season for $17m.
But for me bottom line is this is a 2 year extension for $35m essentially guaranteed added to his deal, locked in for 3 years, team option for year 4. High, but also in line with what Kirk got a few years ago.
LawFitz
Footballguy
But...
Laughing is the exact opposite of what I'd be doing right now if I were a Brownie fan. They just *locked* in a duck for $35 MM over the next two years. That is the concrete commitment, but there's additional downside from there:
In year three, his cash payout drops to $7.5 MM, but do you really think he won't hold out going into that year if he is anywhere near the uber-high-end WR2 you are now locked into paying him to be in '24 and 25? It's not until after those two years that you can even consider cutting him if he busts, and even if you do after the '25 season, you're looking at zero cap relief in '26 + an additional $6 MM guaranteed cash payout that offseason + $9.5 MM in dead money + and additional $7.2 MM dead in '27.
Jerry Jeudy
Jerry Jeudy contract and salary cap details, full contract breakdowns, salaries, signing bonus, roster bonus, dead money, and valuations.
That contract is a huge risk IMO, for a guy that has been mostly a bust so far in the NFL. You are paying for his absolute upside scenario, without any protection if he doesn't live up to it, which IMO is much more likely than not. If he lives up to the upside, he's most definitely going to demand more cash in year 3. And if he busts and is worthless going into that year, you can't easily cut him. You'd get zero cap relief, and you will have paid him $41 MM for two busty years. YUCK!
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Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
If you bother to look, the first post after Andrew Berry extended TE David Njuko to a $51 million contract extension with $28 million guaranteed two years ago said that the Browns made a head scratching decision. Others pointed out Njuko hadn't posted numbers to justify his extension as he only had 60 receptions for 829 yards with 7 TDs COMBINED the previous THREE seasons. People laughed at the Browns saying how stupid they were.
In the TWO seasons after his extension Njuko has 139 receptions for 1,510 yards with 10 TDs. Njuko had not reached his ceiling. AB made what has turned into a judicious decision.
I don't think the extension is a huge risk, see my post above where I basically guestimated the numbers that are being reported and project Juedy to have 900+ yards with 2 to 3 TDs.
I feel those are conservative numbers. I think he has much higher upside and trust AB.
In the TWO seasons after his extension Njuko has 139 receptions for 1,510 yards with 10 TDs. Njuko had not reached his ceiling. AB made what has turned into a judicious decision.
I don't think the extension is a huge risk, see my post above where I basically guestimated the numbers that are being reported and project Juedy to have 900+ yards with 2 to 3 TDs.
I feel those are conservative numbers. I think he has much higher upside and trust AB.
MAC_32
Footballguy
I don't think the Browns are expecting 'big numbers.' He's signed for ~3.5% of the cap in '25 and '26. Given what Haslam's allowed this FO do from a cash perspective I'm much less worried about that than I am the cap. If this goes well then both his and Watson's contract are re-done - Watson maybe this time next year and Jeudy the year after. If it doesn't then '26 will probably be a reset year anyway.
Wise Old Owl
Footballguy
I dont want Jeudy on any of my teams but hes worth more than a 3rd. You can find better value than that.
26.5 years old, 4 seasons, 62 games, 3,662 yards and 15 TD's on 486 targets. 2 years/48m guaranteed with team option for third year at $22m
24 years old, 4 seasons, 57 games, 3,053 yards and 11 TD's on 356 targets. 3 years/48m essentially guaranteed with team option for 4th year at $17m
It's just funny to me I've seen almost no negative reaction to the first contract but the second one is ridiculed by the masses. For the record I don't think I'd have done either of those deals, would have just kept them both on last year of their deals and then re-assessed even if meant letting them walk. I just think Jeudy gets a little more of a bad rap then he deserves.
24 years old, 4 seasons, 57 games, 3,053 yards and 11 TD's on 356 targets. 3 years/48m essentially guaranteed with team option for 4th year at $17m
It's just funny to me I've seen almost no negative reaction to the first contract but the second one is ridiculed by the masses. For the record I don't think I'd have done either of those deals, would have just kept them both on last year of their deals and then re-assessed even if meant letting them walk. I just think Jeudy gets a little more of a bad rap then he deserves.
zamboni
Footballguy
I would probably agree to some extent, but a big part of the criticism relates to the hype and expectations as a top 15 NFL draft pick. If he were drafted in the late first/early second, perhaps the criticisms would be more muted, but that's what happens when you don't live up to draft stock.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
Exactly, but the Browns didn't draft him in the top 15 to be a 1 #WR. They landed him for a 5th and 6th plus some FA cash for a #2WR role.
LINK
Reasonable expectations should be based on what he's produced with the understanding that he has top-15 skills to go above reasonable expectations.
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King of the Jungle
Footballguy
I think my initial shock was simply how close in guaranteed money Jeudy and Pittman were. It is certainly not a franchise crippling contract, just a little surprised how much he got for what he has produced in his four year career. Hope it works out for you guys.
Soulfly3
Footballguy
2023 - #2 leading receiver in DEN with 758yds. He gets FIFTEEN more yds, he's #1. Fifteen. *THE TOP RECEIVER HAD 773YDS *
2022 - #1 leading receiver in DEN with 972yds. He's 243yds ahead of #2, sutton.
2021 - Finishes as the #3 WR in DEN, but only plays 10 games. Finishes with MORE yds/game than #1 and #2 in DEN.
2020 - Rookie, and is the #1 receiver in DEN. 114yds ahead of the #2 receiver.
Has he lived up to his draft stock? NOPE. Was he in an absolutely horrid situation? I mean... if you can't look at the above and see the absolute cesspool DEN has been for receivers, than you might be lost.
Finished #1, #1, #2 and #3 (w/10 games) for his team in 4yrs, and this thread has been calling for him to retire. You guys are too much.
*2022 - #1 leading receiver in DEN with 972yds. He's 243yds ahead of #2, sutton.
2021 - Finishes as the #3 WR in DEN, but only plays 10 games. Finishes with MORE yds/game than #1 and #2 in DEN.
2020 - Rookie, and is the #1 receiver in DEN. 114yds ahead of the #2 receiver.
Has he lived up to his draft stock? NOPE. Was he in an absolutely horrid situation? I mean... if you can't look at the above and see the absolute cesspool DEN has been for receivers, than you might be lost.
Finished #1, #1, #2 and #3 (w/10 games) for his team in 4yrs, and this thread has been calling for him to retire. You guys are too much.
zamboni
Footballguy
Of course - the top 15 draft pick is a sunk cost and irrelevant from the Browns' perspective, but that perception of him will carry on, right or wrong, as long as he's in the league.
Da Franchise
Footballguy
Ok I give up. Who is the 1st one?
Winning IS Everything
Footballguy
Michael Pittman Jr.
MAC_32
Footballguy
I think this is the part I wasn't considering, which contributed to my not understanding some of the reactions to this move. I'll preface this by saying I get my fair share wrong, but I was never in on Jeudy being a top tier talent. Watching him in college and envisioning how he'd transition to the pros, the dots never connected. So he didn't come with those expectations for me. And that's the key word - expectation. I wasn't burned by what he did, or did not do, in Denver, and I'm not expecting the same in Cleveland that those in Denver expected of him four years ago. I just expect a contributor.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
Not sure I'd use Njoku as a shining example for the signing of Jeudy. Looking at the breakdown of what he's done the two years after his extension, a solid chunk of that production came with Joe Flacco, God's gift to tight ends. Looking at the totals you posted for him, 20% of those catches, 25% of those yards, and 40% of those TDs came in only 4 games with Flacco out of the 34 total games.
Also using the 3 years prior to his extension as a comparing factor is a bit disingenuous and skews his numbers more negatively then they should be seeing as he only played 1 full game in 2019 lol. So really he practically did the entirety of that 60/829/7 you put up in the previous 2 years, not 3.
He obviously has talent, but I would not project him to keep up the pace he was on with Flacco. I think he's still likely a 60 - 600 - 4 guy. Don't really know enough about TE salaries to say whether that he's worth what they paid or not; but I don't think the point you're making holds much water.
Wise Old Owl
Footballguy
If there's one thing you can count in fantasy its people overcorrecting when they feel burned by a player. Jeudy was a mega-hyped prospect that probably would have been the 1st WR selected in his draft class if the Raiders didn't do the Raider thing and overdraft speed. He's under performed due to a combination of injury, awful QBs and his own inconsistent play. It doesn't help that 5 of next 6 next WRs in his draft class were Lamb, Jefferson, Aiyuk, Higgins and Pittman. Throw in the fact that he's been a regular pre-season sleeper by dynasty experts and its not a surprise why he's so hated by the community. People hate being burned and feeling stupid so they blame the player.2023 - #2 leading receiver in DEN with 758yds. He gets FIFTEEN more yds, he's #1. Fifteen. *THE TOP RECEIVER HAD 773YDS
2022 - #1 leading receiver in DEN with 972yds. He's 243yds ahead of #2, sutton.
2021 - Finishes as the #3 WR in DEN, but only plays 10 games. Finishes with MORE yds/game than #1 and #2 in DEN.
2020 - Rookie, and is the #1 receiver in DEN. 114yds ahead of the #2 receiver.
Has he lived up to his draft stock? NOPE. Was he in an absolutely horrid situation? I mean... if you can't look at the above and see the absolute cesspool DEN has been for receivers, than you might be lost.
Finished #1, #1, #2 and #3 (w/10 games) for his team in 4yrs, and this thread has been calling for him to retire. You guys are too much.
As a Ravens fan I wanted to mock the deal when I saw the extension but once you look at the contract, it is a smart deal for the Browns. Jeudy can be WR2/3 and if he develops maybe he can step up as the WR1. They can let Moore walk and try drafting a prospect. They clearly are trying to give Watson weapons and this was a cost-effective way to do it.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
To be fair, he’s done absolutely nothing to dispel the notion that he’s a perennial bust.If there's one thing you can count in fantasy its people overcorrecting when they feel burned by a player. Jeudy was a mega-hyped prospect that probably would have been the 1st WR selected in his draft class if the Raiders didn't do the Raider thing and overdraft speed. He's under performed due to a combination of injury, awful QBs and his own inconsistent play. It doesn't help that 5 of next 6 next WRs in his draft class were Lamb, Jefferson, Aiyuk, Higgins and Pittman. Throw in the fact that he's been a regular pre-season sleeper by dynasty experts and its not a surprise why he's so hated by the community. People hate being burned and feeling stupid so they blame the player.2023 - #2 leading receiver in DEN with 758yds. He gets FIFTEEN more yds, he's #1. Fifteen. *THE TOP RECEIVER HAD 773YDS
2022 - #1 leading receiver in DEN with 972yds. He's 243yds ahead of #2, sutton.
2021 - Finishes as the #3 WR in DEN, but only plays 10 games. Finishes with MORE yds/game than #1 and #2 in DEN.
2020 - Rookie, and is the #1 receiver in DEN. 114yds ahead of the #2 receiver.
Has he lived up to his draft stock? NOPE. Was he in an absolutely horrid situation? I mean... if you can't look at the above and see the absolute cesspool DEN has been for receivers, than you might be lost.
Finished #1, #1, #2 and #3 (w/10 games) for his team in 4yrs, and this thread has been calling for him to retire. You guys are too much.
As a Ravens fan I wanted to mock the deal when I saw the extension but once you look at the contract, it is a smart deal for the Browns. Jeudy can be WR2/3 and if he develops maybe he can step up as the WR1. They can let Moore walk and try drafting a prospect. They clearly are trying to give Watson weapons and this was a cost-effective way to do it.
and yes, one of the things that’s prevented him from having success is injury. But fair or otherwise, the best ability is availability. His inability to stay healthy is a huge part of the problem.
And while injuries can be flukey, he’s had soft tissue injuries, particularly with his hammies, more than once. That can be a concern. Draftsharks has him as a 71% chance to get injured. Take that for what you will.
There’s certainly a chance he’ll put it all together AND stay healthy - but he has to prove himself at this point.
I’m not a Jeudy hater at all. I have zero shares. I don’t mind the contract. But the way Watson has played, I’m not sure his QB situation is that much improved over his last few years.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
Njoku is a perfect example of AB making a judicious extension when everyone said not to and the, ahem 'community' here ALWAYS jumps on the Browns with both feet saying how stupid they are when the 0-fer year and FO is long gone.
The three years prior was used by the 'community' here not me. THEY are the ones who cherry picked to say how pathetic Njuko was and that he should not get that extension, they were WRONG.
One of the dumbest things said about Deshaun Watson is that he's poison to TEs. The 'community' here with another 'brilliant' take that I didn't bother to correct but...
Over 20% of Watson's TDs thrown to TEs
The TEs Deshaun had in Texas weren't on Njuko's level of skill. Watson was injured. Add, no-one gets to cherry pick away stats from a player based on personal bias. Njuko far surpassed expectations from the 'community' here and his extension was done prior to him breaking out to become a Pro Bowler.
I base reasonable expectations on, situation and ability. Juedy is in a perfect situation because he's not coming in as a top-15 pick to be the #1 WR. The bar has been lowered and anyone saying he's a bust base that on old expectations.
900 yards with 2 to 3 TDs is a reasonable expectation based on his role, but I believe he's got upside to surpass those numbers.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
I do not despise Jeudy as a player at all, I was just surprised on how much he commanded in guaranteed money with his current resume. However, I would imagine Amari Cooper could be a cut candidate after this season so the Brown’s needed to start filling the cabinet. I do not ever see him reaching the ceiling those thought that he could when he was drafted, but he certainly could be a useful 1B for a team that needs playmakers.
MAC_32
Footballguy
Coop's a free agent at season's end.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
Sir.... This is a Wendy's... lol. You seem super emotionally invested in this so I'll leave it at this: I was responding to what YOU said in your post about Njoku and the accompanying numbers YOU provided. Sorry if you've been traumatized by previous posters and what they've said, I haven't ready every post in every thread so I really have no basis of context for the majority of your reply. I just know none of it had to do with what I said lol. I do know people tend to rag on the Browns a lot, so sorry for that I guess, but I'm not one of them though. Hope your team does well this year.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I think has has more to do with the trends. Pittman's worst season was his rookie year. He didn't do too much, wasn't that involved. Since then he's had 120+ targets in 3 straight seasons. Jeudy had a strong rookie year with 113 targets and 16 yards per catch. Since then his targets and yards per catch have gone down. This past year he had 87 targets to Pittman's 156. The trends or the what have you done lately side of this comparison shows why Pittman is more valued.
Thanks but all this shows me is what I was trying to highlight, PIttman just gets more targets but I don't know what targets do for an NFL team, they are paying for production, not targets/attempts.
I'd also push back on the notion that PIttman's been progressively better then Juedy, which is what I'm taking you alluding to since you are saying it's a trend. Juedy IMO was a more productive player in 2022, beat Pittman in yards and TD's on 41 less targets. That to me is a more productive player.
They are really different WR's so hard to make an apples to apples comp. Not trying to say Juedy is even better but I'm saying for his production I'd rather pay him $16m a year then the $24M a year Pittman is getting.
I'd have not wanted to extend any of them as I keep saying but I don't really hate the idea of Jeudy getting $16M a year so much as I'd be leery of the fact they guaranteed him so much because I do have some maturity/professionalism concerns with him and I'd rather have made him keep earning his pay.
osubuckeyeman
Footballguy
I like the move for the Browns and Jeudy. A lot is being discussed on both sides of the conversation about why the contract is good or bad. The contract lines up with the current market for players around Jeudy. The Browns believe in Jeudy for what their offense will be and believe in the player's talent and upside. The Browns are very analytical-based and they did their homework on Jeduy and the contract. The contract is more than fair for both the player and the team. Jeudy is paired up with Amari who will mentor him and Jeudy seems very happy being in Cleveland.
Jeudy is still a great route runner and separator. He is only 24 years old. The offense and QB in my view are better. The new OC Ken Dorsey has top-10 offense experience on his resume.
What is not to like? In fantasy, this is the kind of buy situation you want and look for. At least I do. You can acquire the player at a cost-effective price with very low risk/ high reward.
Jeudy is still a great route runner and separator. He is only 24 years old. The offense and QB in my view are better. The new OC Ken Dorsey has top-10 offense experience on his resume.
What is not to like? In fantasy, this is the kind of buy situation you want and look for. At least I do. You can acquire the player at a cost-effective price with very low risk/ high reward.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
I'm holding in the league I drafted him in and hoping better QB play sparks something
FantasyGuru24
Footballguy
Let’s say Denver drafts a QB (McCarthy, Nix, etc) .. Would rather have Jeudy or Mims for 2024 and beyond?
I'd rather have Juedy myself and by a lot, one of the better buy lows going right now IMO.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Flacco is gone unfortunately.
I wouldn't say by a lot, but yeah Jeudy>Mims for me too. Jeudy played some solid football in 2022, he just didn't really fit with Payton for whatever reason.
I wouldn't be shocked if either team added a day 2 rookie WR though.
