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WR Quentin Johnston, LAC (1 Viewer)

Chargers selected TCU WR Quentin Johnston with the No. 21 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft.​

Known as the “big” receiver in this year’s pint-sized class, Johnston (6’3/208) arrives in the NFL on the back of a breakout 2022 under first-year TCU coach Sonny Dykes. Of course, 36 percent of Johnston’s 1,069 yards came in just two regular season games, while a staggering 64.3 percent of his output was amassed in only four contests. Johnston caught four-or-fewer balls in nine of his 14 2022 appearances. That boom-or-bust production showed up on film, where Johnston didn’t always play up to his frame. Johnston is physical but not a bully, and is not an elite high-pointer. He also bombed his Pro Day after declining to run at the Combine, posting a decent 4.53 40 but ghastly 7.31 three-cone. The possessor of a dying breed size/speed down-field skill-set, Johnston needs to further refine his “big man’s game” to become NFL difference-maker. Mike Williams is certainly an ideal mentor in L.A., though their games could also cannibalize each other from a fantasy perspective.
Apr 27, 2023, 10:39 PM ET
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This is more challenging to judge than most of the other WR situations.

Great landing spot, great QB.

Keenan Allen is already 31. Mike Williams is going to be 29 this season. Williams has never really blossomed into that Alpha WR1 guy. The role is there for the taking for QJ. Being Herbert's #1 seems awfully good.

I still have all the same concerns I had before, though. He doesn't really separate. His hands are suspect. He won a lot in college by catching short passes and bouncing off the DB's for a long gain. Can he do that consistently in the NFL?
 
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Can’t double QJ on a team with Mike Williams and Keenan Allen. If you’re a WR coming into the league and got to pick your QB, Herbert probably the choice (Burrow?).

Upside like this wins fantasy chips. I’ll defer to those of you who study college tape but seems like a dream landing spot for a unique-ish athlete.
 
tommyGunZ said:
Can’t double QJ on a team with Mike Williams and Keenan Allen. If you’re a WR coming into the league and got to pick your QB, Herbert probably the choice (Burrow?).

Upside like this wins fantasy chips. I’ll defer to those of you who study college tape but seems like a dream landing spot for a unique-ish athlete.
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Great landing spot, but that doesn’t mean he will be a good receiver
 
jm192 said:
I still have all the same concerns I had before, though. He doesn't really separate. His hands are suspect. He won a lot in college by catching short passes and bouncing off the DB's for a long gain. Can he do that consistently in the NFL?
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The bad news is that there are a bunch of flaws in his game.

The good news is that they're all fixable, at least in theory.

He dropped too many balls last year (but not in previous seasons). That's not because he has bad hands in the sense that his hands aren't coordinated. The drops were mainly a concentration issue -- trying to make a move to dodge a would-be tackler before actually securing the catch. (That's part of why his YAC was so good. When he doesn't drop the ball, he is good at avoiding the first defender.)

He also did poorly on contested catches. This isn't because he lacks the physical traits to win jump balls or balls in traffic. It's because he body-catches too often instead of fully extending his arms to the ball. He doesn't effectively use his frame to shield defenders, and he doesn't attack the ball at its high point.

He also struggles to get separation against man coverage because his footwork isn't great out of his cuts.

These are all technique issues that can be fixed.

On the plus side, he has all the stuff that can't be coached -- size, catch radius, speed, general athleticism, strength and elusiveness after the catch... Moreover, even with all of his flaws, he was a very efficient receiver (high production per route run), and his production came mostly lining up outside and mostly on plays down the field (his aDOT was very high). All of that should be predictive of NFL success.

It makes him hard to evaluate. If he doesn't improve as a technician, he'll be a deep threat and he'll be effective on screens, but he won't be a well-rounded receiver who can be counted on to convert on third-and-eight.

If he can improve in all the areas where he needs work, he could be among the top NFL playmakers at WR.

What might work to his advantage is that all of the stuff he's bad at is the same stuff that Keenan Allen is very good at, so Allen could be an effective mentor...
 
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Maurile Tremblay said:
jm192 said:
I still have all the same concerns I had before, though. He doesn't really separate. His hands are suspect. He won a lot in college by catching short passes and bouncing off the DB's for a long gain. Can he do that consistently in the NFL?
Click to expand...
The bad news is that there are a bunch of flaws in his game.

The good news is that they're all fixable, at least in theory.

He dropped too many balls last year (but not in previous seasons). That's not because he has bad hands in the sense that his hands aren't coordinated. The drops were mainly a concentration issue -- trying to make a move to dodge a would-be tackler before actually securing the catch. (That's part of why his YAC was so good. When he doesn't drop the ball, he is good at avoiding the first defender.)

He also did poorly on contested catches. This isn't because he lacks the physical traits to win jump balls or balls in traffic. It's because he body-catches too often instead of fully extending his arms to the ball. He doesn't effectively use his frame to shield defenders, and he doesn't attack the ball at its high point.

He also struggles to get separation against man coverage because his footwork isn't great out of his cuts.

These are all technique issues that can be fixed.

On the plus side, he has all the stuff that can't be coached -- size, catch radius, speed, general athleticism, strength and elusiveness after the catch... Moreover, even with all of his flaws, he was a very efficient receiver (high production per route run), and his production came mostly lining up outside and mostly on plays down the field (his aDOT was very high). All of that should be predictive of NFL success.

It makes him hard to evaluate. If he doesn't improve as a technician, he'll be a deep threat and he'll be effective on screens, but he won't be a well-rounded receiver who can be counted on to convert on third-and-eight.

If he can improve in all the areas where he needs work, he could be among the top NFL playmakers at WR.

What might work to his advantage is that all of the stuff he's bad at is the same stuff that Keenan Allen is very good at, so Allen could be an effective mentor...
Click to expand...

I didn't like the pick, but not so much because of Johnston himself. I thought there were several players at other positions that were better value.

This was posted in another forum:

Per Garrett Sisti, he was told by his Chargers inside contact that:
  • JSN was the highest ranked WR on the Chargers board but SEA took him at 1.20.
  • Team had a quick meeting about who to draft at 1.21
  • Staley liked Zay Flowers
  • WR Coach Chris Beatty liked Jordan Addison
  • Telesco and Kellen Moore both liked Quentin Johnston
  • Kellen Moore said Johnston could be the CeeDee Lamb of his offense and knew what to do with him. Convinced the rest he was the right guy.
  • Johnston impressed all of them during his Combine interview (not sure how as all the press conferences I’ve seen of Johnston have been pretty unimpressive. But maybe he’s good at Xs and Os. Anywho…)
And so Johnston carried the day…
Click to expand...

This makes it sound as if the Chargers had pre-determined they would take a WR at 1.21, which seems like bad process IMO.

However, it probably bodes well for Johnston's prospects if new OC Kellen Moore was pounding the table for him.
 
Just Win Baby said:
Maurile Tremblay said:
jm192 said:
I still have all the same concerns I had before, though. He doesn't really separate. His hands are suspect. He won a lot in college by catching short passes and bouncing off the DB's for a long gain. Can he do that consistently in the NFL?
Click to expand...
The bad news is that there are a bunch of flaws in his game.

The good news is that they're all fixable, at least in theory.

He dropped too many balls last year (but not in previous seasons). That's not because he has bad hands in the sense that his hands aren't coordinated. The drops were mainly a concentration issue -- trying to make a move to dodge a would-be tackler before actually securing the catch. (That's part of why his YAC was so good. When he doesn't drop the ball, he is good at avoiding the first defender.)

He also did poorly on contested catches. This isn't because he lacks the physical traits to win jump balls or balls in traffic. It's because he body-catches too often instead of fully extending his arms to the ball. He doesn't effectively use his frame to shield defenders, and he doesn't attack the ball at its high point.

He also struggles to get separation against man coverage because his footwork isn't great out of his cuts.

These are all technique issues that can be fixed.

On the plus side, he has all the stuff that can't be coached -- size, catch radius, speed, general athleticism, strength and elusiveness after the catch... Moreover, even with all of his flaws, he was a very efficient receiver (high production per route run), and his production came mostly lining up outside and mostly on plays down the field (his aDOT was very high). All of that should be predictive of NFL success.

It makes him hard to evaluate. If he doesn't improve as a technician, he'll be a deep threat and he'll be effective on screens, but he won't be a well-rounded receiver who can be counted on to convert on third-and-eight.

If he can improve in all the areas where he needs work, he could be among the top NFL playmakers at WR.

What might work to his advantage is that all of the stuff he's bad at is the same stuff that Keenan Allen is very good at, so Allen could be an effective mentor...
Click to expand...

I didn't like the pick, but not so much because of Johnston himself. I thought there were several players at other positions that were better value.

This was posted in another forum:

Per Garrett Sisti, he was told by his Chargers inside contact that:
  • JSN was the highest ranked WR on the Chargers board but SEA took him at 1.20.
  • Team had a quick meeting about who to draft at 1.21
  • Staley liked Zay Flowers
  • WR Coach Chris Beatty liked Jordan Addison
  • Telesco and Kellen Moore both liked Quentin Johnston
  • Kellen Moore said Johnston could be the CeeDee Lamb of his offense and knew what to do with him. Convinced the rest he was the right guy.
  • Johnston impressed all of them during his Combine interview (not sure how as all the press conferences I’ve seen of Johnston have been pretty unimpressive. But maybe he’s good at Xs and Os. Anywho…)
And so Johnston carried the day…
Click to expand...

This makes it sound as if the Chargers had pre-determined they would take a WR at 1.21, which seems like bad process IMO.

However, it probably bodes well for Johnston's prospects if new OC Kellen Moore was pounding the table for him.
Click to expand...

I have now heard a different and more concerning account of this pick. I read elsewhere that it was John Spanos who pushed for Johnston, and eventually Moore relented and agreed. I don't like that account at all.

ETA: For those who do not follow the Chargers, John Spanos is the son of the owner and is VP of Football Operations for the Chargers. Most Chargers fans believe he more than any other single person is most responsible for the frequent ineptitude shown by the Chargers front office, which is visible to us through their draft and roster decisions. That is why I said I found this second account concerning.
 
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Just Win Baby said:
I have now heard a different and more concerning account of this pick. I read elsewhere that it was John Spanos who pushed for Johnston, and eventually Moore relented and agreed. I don't like that account at all.
Click to expand...

Appreciate the info, this and your earlier post about Beatty preferring Addison helps me because I think I'm likely looking deciding between QJ or Addison in 3 different leagues next week.

I was a little concerned for Addison that a team with his ex-WR coach located in the city he just played chose someone else and this alleviates some of those concerns.

I can't even believe I'm considering Johnston in this range. He's absolutely not the type I invest in, but I have been wrong, and I think in theory his upside is higher. Addison is more my type, but I feel like he's going to be living in the shadow of JJ, with a good pass catching TE and no QB signed past this year.
 
joey said:
Just grabbed QJ at 1.6 in FFPC 1QB. TEP league.
welcome aboard, kid.
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I am drafting a bit later than this in 3 league, need him to fall. I think he will, because Draft Twitter tells me this kid cannot play football.

Love the ceiling. not many guys that size take screens to the house. I'll worry about hand placement the way I worried about Terrell Owns' hand placement.
 
So today I sat at 1.7, hoping to nab one of QJ or Flowers. In 1qb it seemed like it would be a coin flip if one of the WRs would be there. Lo and behold 1.5 went Richardson and 1.6 Kincaid. QJ and Flowers remained . Addison would have been an easier call for me.

I’d been prepared for how to sell 1.07 to a te or qb needy team..But not to have to pick between them. I froze.

Johnston. Size, adp, age and tied to an elite passing qb. Game has big flaws but by all accounts working on them.

Flowers. More highly ranked by two of my go-to guys. Do you believe in Jackson and the new OC to support two viable to elite pass catchers? Every talent evaluation of Bateman suggests that he has elite ability.. so what gives?

I started crafting offers to 1.08 when his offer came through. 3.08 for the flip. I panicked and hit accept without getting a better counter. Godspeed Quentin. Maybe I’ll draft you someday in redraft. I’m already regretting this. But it does feel good to be alive
 
greenmountaingoat said:
So today I sat at 1.7, hoping to nab one of QJ or Flowers. In 1qb it seemed like it would be a coin flip if one of the WRs would be there. Lo and behold 1.5 went Richardson and 1.6 Kincaid. QJ and Flowers remained . Addison would have been an easier call for me.

I’d been prepared for how to sell 1.07 to a te or qb needy team..But not to have to pick between them. I froze.

Johnston. Size, adp, age and tied to an elite passing qb. Game has big flaws but by all accounts working on them.

Flowers. More highly ranked by two of my go-to guys. Do you believe in Jackson and the new OC to support two viable to elite pass catchers? Every talent evaluation of Bateman suggests that he has elite ability.. so what gives?

I started crafting offers to 1.08 when his offer came through. 3.08 for the flip. I panicked and hit accept without getting a better counter. Godspeed Quentin. Maybe I’ll draft you someday in redraft. I’m already regretting this. But it does feel good to be alive
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I tried moving from the 1.03 to 1.02 for Gibbs but couldn't come to an agreement but got lucky and he took JSN. I would have been fine with JSN. I guess he got his guy and I got mine.
 
One of two things will happen. A lot of people will have egg on their face for drafting him early in the dynasty drafts, or a lot of people will have egg on their face when he lights up the NFL. That is how big of an enigma QJ is.
 
JohnnyU said:
One of two things will happen. A lot of people will have egg on their face for drafting him early in the dynasty drafts, or a lot of people will have egg on their face when he lights up the NFL. That is how big of an enigma QJ is.
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I agree with this. But at wr, I prefer to take that risk and chase the upside if there's no good RB or locked in stud at wr available.
He's a big bust risk, but a safe and sound WR who has no chance to break free from the pack of 50ish startable WRs in the league right now also doesn't move the needle that much for me. Seems like most of the discussion since season ends is around his bust risk and not his upside.
 
JohnnyU said:
One of two things will happen. A lot of people will have egg on their face for drafting him early in the dynasty drafts, or a lot of people will have egg on their face when he lights up the NFL. That is how big of an enigma QJ is.
Click to expand...
There's only one group of a lot of people. The group that doesn't like QJ.
 
massraider said:
JohnnyU said:
One of two things will happen. A lot of people will have egg on their face for drafting him early in the dynasty drafts, or a lot of people will have egg on their face when he lights up the NFL. That is how big of an enigma QJ is.
Click to expand...
There's only one group of a lot of people. The group that doesn't like QJ.
Click to expand...
I don’t love him but did take him at 1.05 being the only size/speed guy and in what looks like a great situation. Catching the ball is a big part of the process though.
 
Seems like a good upside player for next year and beyond.

He landed in great passing offense with great QB. Either Allen or Williams will almost certainly be gone next season due to the Chargers cap situation. My guess is Williams will be gone. That puts him in line for production on par with Williams starting next season, as long as he proves he can improve on the negatives in his draft profile.
 
Dr. Octopus said:
massraider said:
JohnnyU said:
One of two things will happen. A lot of people will have egg on their face for drafting him early in the dynasty drafts, or a lot of people will have egg on their face when he lights up the NFL. That is how big of an enigma QJ is.
Click to expand...
There's only one group of a lot of people. The group that doesn't like QJ.
Click to expand...
I don’t love him but did take him at 1.05 being the only size/speed guy and in what looks like a great situation. Catching the ball is a big part of the process though.
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I was listening to a Fantasy Pros dynasty mock, and a guy was making the case that he liked Flowers situation more. I won't lay out the argument, but it wasn't great.

Wherever Herbert ranks in people's dynasty rankings, being able to get the #1 for a young franchise QB is huge. Zero stud TE, one old WR with a contract situation, one broken M. Williams. He could slide into strong WR2 numbers next year.
 
Faust said:
5 Takeaways: Quentin Johnston Has All the Traits to Succeed
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Excerpt:

Johnston has all the necessary traits
If you could build a wide receiver in a lab, it might end up looking like Quentin Johnston.
The Chargers first-round selection (No. 21 overall) is 6-foot-3 and weighs 208 pounds, plus has plus speed and game-changing ability on the field.
Telesco smiled when asked about the traits that made Johnston the pick Thursday night.
"He's big, strong and fast. That's a good way to start it off as a player," Telesco said. "Great work ethic that we love. We know all of these players that are drafted, they're all talented, but once they get in this league, it takes a lot of work to get to where you want to go and keep improving."
Staley said the Bolts believe Johnston is a home-run threat from anywhere on the field.
"He's a weapon to score the ball any time that he touches it," Staley said. "There are very few receivers in the game who are threats to score the ball whenever they have it."
Johnston put up plenty of eye-popping numbers last season at TCU but the most impressive one might have been this: He ranked second in FBS last year with 8.9 yards after the catch per reception.
In other words, Johnston is always looking for more with the ball in his hands.
"The skillset comes from different sports that I played; basketball, track, stuff like that," Johnston said. "At the same time, it comes down to a mindset. It's a want to get extra yards, a want to keep fighting for yards, a first down, things like that.
"I feel like it has been instilled in me long ago in high school, and it's just something that's been carried out with me throughout my college career," Johnston added.
Johnston won't need to be the focal point of the Chargers offense in 2023, but he has all the tools to be a contributor in both the short and long term for the Bolts.
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Player Profiler comps him to Josh Doctson.

I personally think he'll far outperform Doctson, but just throwing it out there.
 
I used to really like player profiler and was an early follower of the site and podcast. But Kelley is getting a little hot-taeky the past 2 offseasons as they transition to being a big media center/football news outlet.
 
I have a couple of shares in FFPC dynasties and mostly love the idea of the landing spot but not sure where I really am with him talent wise. I have depth and if I can get a 1st I may just liquidate. Roster crunches are real tough in a couple of spots. Lots of time before week 1 cutdowns but from experience I know there are going to be some tough spots. Like both of the teams that have him.
 
beef said:
hines said:
why does everyone keep saying he's fast? he ran a 4.57, yes he's big but that's still nothing crazy speed wise
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Because he is fast. I remember seeing a stat that he hit over 21 mph on a play last year. Maybe only a dozen or so NFL WRs can say they did too. Field speed > drill speed.
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I wish there was a database of on speed measurements. Feels like it's close to something that will be available, and probably makes the 40 fully obsolete. But yeah once I see guy like him show legit on-field speed, the 40 is irrelevant.
 
beef said:
hines said:
why does everyone keep saying he's fast? he ran a 4.57, yes he's big but that's still nothing crazy speed wise
Click to expand...
Because he is fast. I remember seeing a stat that he hit over 21 mph on a play last year. Maybe only a dozen or so NFL WRs can say they did too. Field speed > drill speed.
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why would his field speed be higher than his drill speed? I don't believe that he is so fast on the field and can't do it in a drill. all these guys who hit high MPH in NFL (Campbell, Duvernay, Jackson, K Walker etc) all ran sub 4.4 40s, while Johnston is above 4.5
 
jtd13 said:
beef said:
hines said:
why does everyone keep saying he's fast? he ran a 4.57, yes he's big but that's still nothing crazy speed wise
Click to expand...
Because he is fast. I remember seeing a stat that he hit over 21 mph on a play last year. Maybe only a dozen or so NFL WRs can say they did too. Field speed > drill speed.
Click to expand...
I wish there was a database of on speed measurements. Feels like it's close to something that will be available, and probably makes the 40 fully obsolete. But yeah once I see guy like him show legit on-field speed, the 40 is irrelevant.
Click to expand...
where did he show legit on field speed?
 
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