Yankees Outfield (1 Viewer)

[doomsdaydoc]

With all the money that the Yankees have spent this offseason, I cannot believe that they are planning to start the season with their current outfield. They have all these corner outfield/DH types- Damon, Matsui, Nady, Swisher- but nobody who can be a leadoff hitting centerfielder that can make things happen. I know they have a lot of power in their lineup, but we all know that good pitching stifles good hitting most of the time. When this team is playing in games that count, they need to be able to score without the 3 run homer. Additionally, they do not have good outfield defense. Is there a trade in the works of a couple of these corner outfielders for a centerfielder, or is there another potential signing?

 

[shadyridr]

Itll either be Damon in CF, Swisher in LF or Cabrera/Gardner in CF with Swisher or Nady traded

 

[cobalt_27]

Itll either be Damon in CF, Swisher in LF or Cabrera/Gardner in CF with Swisher or Nady traded

In other words, garbage.

 

[shadyridr]

Itll either be Damon in CF, Swisher in LF or Cabrera/Gardner in CF with Swisher or Nady traded

In other words, garbage.

In a dream world they would trade Matsui.

 

[cobalt_27]

Itll either be Damon in CF, Swisher in LF or Cabrera/Gardner in CF with Swisher or Nady traded

In other words, garbage.

In a dream world they would trade Matsui.

For...?

 

[DropKick]

With all the money that the Yankees have spent this offseason, I cannot believe that they are planning to start the season with their current outfield. They have all these corner outfield/DH types- Damon, Matsui, Nady, Swisher- but nobody who can be a leadoff hitting centerfielder that can make things happen. I know they have a lot of power in their lineup, but we all know that good pitching stifles good hitting most of the time. When this team is playing in games that count, they need to be able to score without the 3 run homer. Additionally, they do not have good outfield defense. Is there a trade in the works of a couple of these corner outfielders for a centerfielder, or is there another potential signing?

I think Damon is still capable of batting lead off and playing CF. Weak arm probably the biggest problem but overall he doesn't hurt their team.I still thank they end up with Manny... I'm sure he wants another pay-day.

 

[ScottNorwood]

Rumor has it that they're investing $600 million in a new robotic arm for Johnny Damon.

We can rebuild him, we have the technology.

 

[MAC_32]

Itll either be Damon in CF, Swisher in LF or Cabrera/Gardner in CF with Swisher or Nady traded

In other words, garbage.

In a dream world they would trade Matsui.

For...?

Think I read a rumor a few weeks ago that Seattle was interested. Take that FWIW.

 

[avoiding injuries]

I heard they might but the Indians franchise for $1 Billion so they could trade Sizemore to the Yankee's.

 

[Captain Hook]

current plans are for Damon to play LF and leadoff

They really don't have another leadoff hitter and LF is the best slot for his poor arm

Absent a trade FOR a center fielder, I would guess that Brett Gardner starts the year there - with everyone else in that lineup they don't need power from him and he has enough speed to help cover the poor fielders in LF and RF

Matsui will likely DH more than he plays RF

With Melky, Nady and Swisher for really one spot, at Least one of them (and more likely Nady or Swisher) will be traded - but not necessarily in fact unlikely for another OF

 

[RnR]

I wouldn't be surprised to see them try Swisher in CF. I don't think they traded for Swisher to keep him as a reserve. Obviously, a trade of Nady or Swisher would work this out by itself.

Also, there's always the outside chance that they still go through with the Cameron/Melky deal.

 

[DropKick]

I heard they might but the Indians franchise for $1 Billion so they could trade Sizemore to the Yankee's.

Please send me $20 for a new keyboard. I just spit my coffee all over this one.

 

[shadyridr]

Itll either be Damon in CF, Swisher in LF or Cabrera/Gardner in CF with Swisher or Nady traded

In other words, garbage.

In a dream world they would trade Matsui.

For...?

anything

 

[David Yudkin]

Itll either be Damon in CF, Swisher in LF or Cabrera/Gardner in CF with Swisher or Nady traded

In other words, garbage.

In a dream world they would trade Matsui.

For...?

anything

Sox seem to be cornering the market of Japanese players in their 30s . . . they might be a fit.

 

[The Man from Laramie]

This thread ignores the fact that they've seemingly improved both their offense and pitching while taking on LESS payroll than in 2008. Sure, their defense might be worse, but it wasn't so good last year either.

I think the Yankees start 2009 an improved team, even with these problems.

 

[Balco]

That would be an atrocious outfield. I still think Damon can contribute significantly as a DH, but he is a huge liability in the Outfield. I thought they were close to trading for Cameron? Did the deal fall apart?

 

[David Yudkin]

This thread ignores the fact that they've seemingly improved both their offense and pitching while taking on LESS payroll than in 2008. Sure, their defense might be worse, but it wasn't so good last year either.I think the Yankees start 2009 an improved team, even with these problems.

Certainly is debatable if their offense IN TOTAL is improved, and with weaker defense, the improved pitching could give up more runs with weaker defense.

 

[cobalt_27]

Itll either be Damon in CF, Swisher in LF or Cabrera/Gardner in CF with Swisher or Nady traded

In other words, garbage.

In a dream world they would trade Matsui.

For...?

anything

Well, whoever this guy is, that fantasy deal of yours looks like a dead-ringer for us to improve the OF position.

 

[cobalt_27]

This thread ignores the fact that they've seemingly improved both their offense and pitching while taking on LESS payroll than in 2008. Sure, their defense might be worse, but it wasn't so good last year either.I think the Yankees start 2009 an improved team, even with these problems.

Certainly is debatable if their offense IN TOTAL is improved, and with weaker defense, the improved pitching could give up more runs with weaker defense.

I'll take an improved offense and an improved pitching staff any day, if it comes at the expense of a somewhat diminished OF defense (which is already mitigated somewhat by Teixeira at 1B over our previous 1B defense).

 

[The Man from Laramie]

This thread ignores the fact that they've seemingly improved both their offense and pitching while taking on LESS payroll than in 2008. Sure, their defense might be worse, but it wasn't so good last year either.I think the Yankees start 2009 an improved team, even with these problems.

Certainly is debatable if their offense IN TOTAL is improved, and with weaker defense, the improved pitching could give up more runs with weaker defense.

I'll take an improved offense and an improved pitching staff any day, if it comes at the expense of a somewhat diminished OF defense (which is already mitigated somewhat by Teixeira at 1B over our previous 1B defense).

Making the argument that the Yankees are not a better team going into 2009 than they were in 2008 is a stretch. Taking injuries into account alone...this is how nomaas.org sums it up:

8 - Injuries, Injuries, InjuriesEvery baseball team must learn to deal with injuries, but the Yankees were hit hard this year at a number of positions where they couldn't afford their players to miss time. Nobody expected Jorge Posada to repeat his MVP-quality hitting from 2007, but an injury to his shoulder limited him to 168 at bats, with his numbers being filled in by Jose Molina (OPS+ 51), Chad Moeller (OPS+ 69), and Pudge Rodriguez (OPS+ 51). The ace of our staff, Chien-Ming Wang, was lost for the season while running the bases, which opened up bunch of innings for Sidney Ponson, Darrell Rasner, and yes, Kei Igawa. A-Rod, Jeter, Matsui, Damon, Joba, Hughes, and Kennedy all lost time to injury.

Wang and Posada being on the field a full 162 (or at least a good chunk of them) almost single handedly will account for losing Giambi and Abreu.

 

[David Yudkin]

This thread ignores the fact that they've seemingly improved both their offense and pitching while taking on LESS payroll than in 2008. Sure, their defense might be worse, but it wasn't so good last year either.I think the Yankees start 2009 an improved team, even with these problems.

Certainly is debatable if their offense IN TOTAL is improved, and with weaker defense, the improved pitching could give up more runs with weaker defense.

I'll take an improved offense and an improved pitching staff any day, if it comes at the expense of a somewhat diminished OF defense (which is already mitigated somewhat by Teixeira at 1B over our previous 1B defense).

Making the argument that the Yankees are not a better team going into 2009 than they were in 2008 is a stretch. Taking injuries into account alone...this is how nomaas.org sums it up:

8 - Injuries, Injuries, InjuriesEvery baseball team must learn to deal with injuries, but the Yankees were hit hard this year at a number of positions where they couldn't afford their players to miss time. Nobody expected Jorge Posada to repeat his MVP-quality hitting from 2007, but an injury to his shoulder limited him to 168 at bats, with his numbers being filled in by Jose Molina (OPS+ 51), Chad Moeller (OPS+ 69), and Pudge Rodriguez (OPS+ 51). The ace of our staff, Chien-Ming Wang, was lost for the season while running the bases, which opened up bunch of innings for Sidney Ponson, Darrell Rasner, and yes, Kei Igawa. A-Rod, Jeter, Matsui, Damon, Joba, Hughes, and Kennedy all lost time to injury.

Wang and Posada being on the field a full 162 (or at least a good chunk of them) almost single handedly will account for losing Giambi and Abreu.

Any team should be expected to do better if everyone were healthy. The Sox could ceratinly say the same thing with inujuries to Schilling, Beckett, Ortiz, Drew, Lowell, Lugo, etc. As I alluded to earlier in one of these threads, the Yanks lost roughly 200 RBI with Abreau and Giambi leaving. Their catchers combined last year drove in 50+. Getting Posada back should get them another 35 runs.Their outfield even with Abreau was a bit of a question mark. Now for the 3 OF spots and DH they will have to pick from Damon, Matsui, Nady, Swisher, Cabrera, and Gardner (unless of course they make a move for someone else.) If we say that 2 OF slots and DH remain the same, I don't think that last OF spot would get the same production as Abreau gave them, and I'm guessing no Abreau will probably cost them 25 runs.By my math, that would mean that Texeira would need 90 runs to make things even (85 RBI from Posada, 75 from the RF spot = 160. Abreau, Giambi, and catchers last year = 250). Give Tex 110-120 RBI and runs wise the Yanks will probably be 20-30 runs better offensively.As also noted previously, Mussina and Pettitte accounted for 34 wins. Wang, Pavano, Bruney and Giese (their total combined number of starts were pretty equal to what Wang would normally get) totalled 14 wins. So IMO, last year Mussina, Pettitte, and Wang's spot in the rotation accounted for 48 wins.Clearly all we can do is guess what will happen in 09. If we assign Wang 19 wins (what he had the two previous seasons), Sabathia 16 wins (his average the past 3 seasons), and Burnett 13 wins (his average the last 3 seasons), that adds up to . . . 48 wins. Certainly all of this guys could do better playing on the Yankees and all, but the point was that it's not a slam dunk that these guys will win leaps and bounds more games than the 08 model of the Yankees.Certainly if the pitchers behind Wang/CC/AJ in the roration pitch better there are more wins to be had, and that's likely where the Yanks will have to do their gaining in the win column.

 

[Michael Brown]

This thread ignores the fact that they've seemingly improved both their offense and pitching while taking on LESS payroll than in 2008. Sure, their defense might be worse, but it wasn't so good last year either.I think the Yankees start 2009 an improved team, even with these problems.

Certainly is debatable if their offense IN TOTAL is improved, and with weaker defense, the improved pitching could give up more runs with weaker defense.

I'll take an improved offense and an improved pitching staff any day, if it comes at the expense of a somewhat diminished OF defense (which is already mitigated somewhat by Teixeira at 1B over our previous 1B defense).

Making the argument that the Yankees are not a better team going into 2009 than they were in 2008 is a stretch. Taking injuries into account alone...this is how nomaas.org sums it up:

8 - Injuries, Injuries, InjuriesEvery baseball team must learn to deal with injuries, but the Yankees were hit hard this year at a number of positions where they couldn't afford their players to miss time. Nobody expected Jorge Posada to repeat his MVP-quality hitting from 2007, but an injury to his shoulder limited him to 168 at bats, with his numbers being filled in by Jose Molina (OPS+ 51), Chad Moeller (OPS+ 69), and Pudge Rodriguez (OPS+ 51). The ace of our staff, Chien-Ming Wang, was lost for the season while running the bases, which opened up bunch of innings for Sidney Ponson, Darrell Rasner, and yes, Kei Igawa. A-Rod, Jeter, Matsui, Damon, Joba, Hughes, and Kennedy all lost time to injury.

Wang and Posada being on the field a full 162 (or at least a good chunk of them) almost single handedly will account for losing Giambi and Abreu.

Any team should be expected to do better if everyone were healthy. The Sox could ceratinly say the same thing with inujuries to Schilling, Beckett, Ortiz, Drew, Lowell, Lugo, etc. As I alluded to earlier in one of these threads, the Yanks lost roughly 200 RBI with Abreau and Giambi leaving. Their catchers combined last year drove in 50+. Getting Posada back should get them another 35 runs.Their outfield even with Abreau was a bit of a question mark. Now for the 3 OF spots and DH they will have to pick from Damon, Matsui, Nady, Swisher, Cabrera, and Gardner (unless of course they make a move for someone else.) If we say that 2 OF slots and DH remain the same, I don't think that last OF spot would get the same production as Abreau gave them, and I'm guessing no Abreau will probably cost them 25 runs.By my math, that would mean that Texeira would need 90 runs to make things even (85 RBI from Posada, 75 from the RF spot = 160. Abreau, Giambi, and catchers last year = 250). Give Tex 110-120 RBI and runs wise the Yanks will probably be 20-30 runs better offensively.As also noted previously, Mussina and Pettitte accounted for 34 wins. Wang, Pavano, Bruney and Giese (their total combined number of starts were pretty equal to what Wang would normally get) totalled 14 wins. So IMO, last year Mussina, Pettitte, and Wang's spot in the rotation accounted for 48 wins.Clearly all we can do is guess what will happen in 09. If we assign Wang 19 wins (what he had the two previous seasons), Sabathia 16 wins (his average the past 3 seasons), and Burnett 13 wins (his average the last 3 seasons), that adds up to . . . 48 wins. Certainly all of this guys could do better playing on the Yankees and all, but the point was that it's not a slam dunk that these guys will win leaps and bounds more games than the 08 model of the Yankees.Certainly if the pitchers behind Wang/CC/AJ in the roration pitch better there are more wins to be had, and that's likely where the Yanks will have to do their gaining in the win column.

DY you aren't taking into account that ARod and Cano will likely be a whole lot better than they were last year. And I think 110-120 RBI for Tex is a floor estimate. If he's hitting behind Damon/Jeter/A-Rod OR if he's batting behind Damon/Jeter with A-Rod protection, I think he goes well above that number assuming good health.

 

[David Yudkin]

This thread ignores the fact that they've seemingly improved both their offense and pitching while taking on LESS payroll than in 2008. Sure, their defense might be worse, but it wasn't so good last year either.I think the Yankees start 2009 an improved team, even with these problems.

Certainly is debatable if their offense IN TOTAL is improved, and with weaker defense, the improved pitching could give up more runs with weaker defense.

I'll take an improved offense and an improved pitching staff any day, if it comes at the expense of a somewhat diminished OF defense (which is already mitigated somewhat by Teixeira at 1B over our previous 1B defense).

Making the argument that the Yankees are not a better team going into 2009 than they were in 2008 is a stretch. Taking injuries into account alone...this is how nomaas.org sums it up:

8 - Injuries, Injuries, InjuriesEvery baseball team must learn to deal with injuries, but the Yankees were hit hard this year at a number of positions where they couldn't afford their players to miss time. Nobody expected Jorge Posada to repeat his MVP-quality hitting from 2007, but an injury to his shoulder limited him to 168 at bats, with his numbers being filled in by Jose Molina (OPS+ 51), Chad Moeller (OPS+ 69), and Pudge Rodriguez (OPS+ 51). The ace of our staff, Chien-Ming Wang, was lost for the season while running the bases, which opened up bunch of innings for Sidney Ponson, Darrell Rasner, and yes, Kei Igawa. A-Rod, Jeter, Matsui, Damon, Joba, Hughes, and Kennedy all lost time to injury.

Wang and Posada being on the field a full 162 (or at least a good chunk of them) almost single handedly will account for losing Giambi and Abreu.

Any team should be expected to do better if everyone were healthy. The Sox could ceratinly say the same thing with inujuries to Schilling, Beckett, Ortiz, Drew, Lowell, Lugo, etc. As I alluded to earlier in one of these threads, the Yanks lost roughly 200 RBI with Abreau and Giambi leaving. Their catchers combined last year drove in 50+. Getting Posada back should get them another 35 runs.Their outfield even with Abreau was a bit of a question mark. Now for the 3 OF spots and DH they will have to pick from Damon, Matsui, Nady, Swisher, Cabrera, and Gardner (unless of course they make a move for someone else.) If we say that 2 OF slots and DH remain the same, I don't think that last OF spot would get the same production as Abreau gave them, and I'm guessing no Abreau will probably cost them 25 runs.By my math, that would mean that Texeira would need 90 runs to make things even (85 RBI from Posada, 75 from the RF spot = 160. Abreau, Giambi, and catchers last year = 250). Give Tex 110-120 RBI and runs wise the Yanks will probably be 20-30 runs better offensively.As also noted previously, Mussina and Pettitte accounted for 34 wins. Wang, Pavano, Bruney and Giese (their total combined number of starts were pretty equal to what Wang would normally get) totalled 14 wins. So IMO, last year Mussina, Pettitte, and Wang's spot in the rotation accounted for 48 wins.Clearly all we can do is guess what will happen in 09. If we assign Wang 19 wins (what he had the two previous seasons), Sabathia 16 wins (his average the past 3 seasons), and Burnett 13 wins (his average the last 3 seasons), that adds up to . . . 48 wins. Certainly all of this guys could do better playing on the Yankees and all, but the point was that it's not a slam dunk that these guys will win leaps and bounds more games than the 08 model of the Yankees.Certainly if the pitchers behind Wang/CC/AJ in the roration pitch better there are more wins to be had, and that's likely where the Yanks will have to do their gaining in the win column.

DY you aren't taking into account that ARod and Cano will likely be a whole lot better than they were last year. And I think 110-120 RBI for Tex is a floor estimate. If he's hitting behind Damon/Jeter/A-Rod OR if he's batting behind Damon/Jeter with A-Rod protection, I think he goes well above that number assuming good health.

Predicting anyone for more than 120 RBI in a season is nuts IMO. Too many variables. Sure, Tex could get more, but I think setting the bar at 120 is about as high I would go with anyone. Ryan Howard is the only player to have 120 RBI in both 07 and 08. He certainly is cpabale of more.

 

[Michael Brown]

This thread ignores the fact that they've seemingly improved both their offense and pitching while taking on LESS payroll than in 2008. Sure, their defense might be worse, but it wasn't so good last year either.I think the Yankees start 2009 an improved team, even with these problems.

Certainly is debatable if their offense IN TOTAL is improved, and with weaker defense, the improved pitching could give up more runs with weaker defense.

I'll take an improved offense and an improved pitching staff any day, if it comes at the expense of a somewhat diminished OF defense (which is already mitigated somewhat by Teixeira at 1B over our previous 1B defense).

Making the argument that the Yankees are not a better team going into 2009 than they were in 2008 is a stretch. Taking injuries into account alone...this is how nomaas.org sums it up:

8 - Injuries, Injuries, InjuriesEvery baseball team must learn to deal with injuries, but the Yankees were hit hard this year at a number of positions where they couldn't afford their players to miss time. Nobody expected Jorge Posada to repeat his MVP-quality hitting from 2007, but an injury to his shoulder limited him to 168 at bats, with his numbers being filled in by Jose Molina (OPS+ 51), Chad Moeller (OPS+ 69), and Pudge Rodriguez (OPS+ 51). The ace of our staff, Chien-Ming Wang, was lost for the season while running the bases, which opened up bunch of innings for Sidney Ponson, Darrell Rasner, and yes, Kei Igawa. A-Rod, Jeter, Matsui, Damon, Joba, Hughes, and Kennedy all lost time to injury.

Wang and Posada being on the field a full 162 (or at least a good chunk of them) almost single handedly will account for losing Giambi and Abreu.

Any team should be expected to do better if everyone were healthy. The Sox could ceratinly say the same thing with inujuries to Schilling, Beckett, Ortiz, Drew, Lowell, Lugo, etc. As I alluded to earlier in one of these threads, the Yanks lost roughly 200 RBI with Abreau and Giambi leaving. Their catchers combined last year drove in 50+. Getting Posada back should get them another 35 runs.Their outfield even with Abreau was a bit of a question mark. Now for the 3 OF spots and DH they will have to pick from Damon, Matsui, Nady, Swisher, Cabrera, and Gardner (unless of course they make a move for someone else.) If we say that 2 OF slots and DH remain the same, I don't think that last OF spot would get the same production as Abreau gave them, and I'm guessing no Abreau will probably cost them 25 runs.By my math, that would mean that Texeira would need 90 runs to make things even (85 RBI from Posada, 75 from the RF spot = 160. Abreau, Giambi, and catchers last year = 250). Give Tex 110-120 RBI and runs wise the Yanks will probably be 20-30 runs better offensively.As also noted previously, Mussina and Pettitte accounted for 34 wins. Wang, Pavano, Bruney and Giese (their total combined number of starts were pretty equal to what Wang would normally get) totalled 14 wins. So IMO, last year Mussina, Pettitte, and Wang's spot in the rotation accounted for 48 wins.Clearly all we can do is guess what will happen in 09. If we assign Wang 19 wins (what he had the two previous seasons), Sabathia 16 wins (his average the past 3 seasons), and Burnett 13 wins (his average the last 3 seasons), that adds up to . . . 48 wins. Certainly all of this guys could do better playing on the Yankees and all, but the point was that it's not a slam dunk that these guys will win leaps and bounds more games than the 08 model of the Yankees.Certainly if the pitchers behind Wang/CC/AJ in the roration pitch better there are more wins to be had, and that's likely where the Yanks will have to do their gaining in the win column.

DY you aren't taking into account that ARod and Cano will likely be a whole lot better than they were last year. And I think 110-120 RBI for Tex is a floor estimate. If he's hitting behind Damon/Jeter/A-Rod OR if he's batting behind Damon/Jeter with A-Rod protection, I think he goes well above that number assuming good health.

Predicting anyone for more than 120 RBI in a season is nuts IMO. Too many variables. Sure, Tex could get more, but I think setting the bar at 120 is about as high I would go with anyone. Ryan Howard is the only player to have 120 RBI in both 07 and 08. He certainly is cpabale of more.

Fair enough. I just think that slot in the lineup, with those guys in front of him and all that protection behind him, he'd have to hit .200 with RISP to get any lower than 120 in 150 games.

 

[wilked]

DY you aren't taking into account that ARod and Cano will likely be a whole lot better than they were last year.

Good point, ARod really sucked it up with .392 / .573, 150 OPS+He should be at least twice as good next year

 

[Michael Brown]

DY you aren't taking into account that ARod and Cano will likely be a whole lot better than they were last year.

Good point, ARod really sucked it up with .392 / .573, 150 OPS+He should be at least twice as good next year

In his previous 3 seasons, he averaged about 136 RBI per season and never missed more than 8 games. Last year he had 103 RBI and missed 24 games. But you're right, 33 RBI (and a drop off of a whopping 53 from 2007) don't mean anything.

 

[TLEF316]

DY you aren't taking into account that ARod and Cano will likely be a whole lot better than they were last year.

Good point, ARod really sucked it up with .392 / .573, 150 OPS+He should be at least twice as good next year

i take it you're predicting 23 HR's and 89 RBI from Ortiz again?

 

[wilked]

DY you aren't taking into account that ARod and Cano will likely be a whole lot better than they were last year.

Good point, ARod really sucked it up with .392 / .573, 150 OPS+He should be at least twice as good next year

In his previous 3 seasons, he averaged about 136 RBI per season and never missed more than 8 games. Last year he had 103 RBI and missed 24 games. But you're right, 33 RBI (and a drop off of a whopping 53 from 2007) don't mean anything.

Good idea, pick his MVP season and career best year and assume he will repeat it...Of his 6 previous years, his numbers last year rank about 3rd, basically right in line with his historical variation. If 150 OPS+ is a down year you hav have your sights set way too high.

He did miss about 15 more games than he usually does, but beyond that he was the same player he has always been

Here's his down year, as sorted by OPS

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/battin...ull&minpa=0

 

[Capella]

Why would anybody assume Cano is going to be anything but marginally better?

Until he stops hacking up there, I'm going to assume he'll suck. He's not a very good player.

 

[Michael Brown]

Why would anybody assume Cano is going to be anything but marginally better?Until he stops hacking up there, I'm going to assume he'll suck. He's not a very good player.

Check his monthly splits Cappy. Save for a horrific April, he was one of the more consistent hitters month to month. Always between .290 and .310 for the most part, and with decent pop. He doesn't take walks, but he can certainly be a run-producer and a very good hitter especially for a 2B.

 

[Michael Brown]

DY you aren't taking into account that ARod and Cano will likely be a whole lot better than they were last year.

Good point, ARod really sucked it up with .392 / .573, 150 OPS+He should be at least twice as good next year

In his previous 3 seasons, he averaged about 136 RBI per season and never missed more than 8 games. Last year he had 103 RBI and missed 24 games. But you're right, 33 RBI (and a drop off of a whopping 53 from 2007) don't mean anything.

Good idea, pick his MVP season and career best year and assume he will repeat it...

Wow, I had no idea I said he'd repeat 2007...amazing job of reading between the lines to find out what I actually intended to say!But here's the thing: I ACTUALLY compared last year's stats to the three previous seasons, and only mentioned 2007 to reference how much of a drop-off there was between those two years. But once again, three year stat compilations usually mean nothing. I bow to your baseball acumen.

 

[MAC_32]

Why would anybody assume Cano is going to be anything but marginally better?Until he stops hacking up there, I'm going to assume he'll suck. He's not a very good player.

I'm cautiously optimistic that his new offseason regimen will fix whatever's ailed him for a good portion of the last two seasons. Early reports were that things were going well in Dominican? that where he's playing winter ball?

 

[wilked]

DY you aren't taking into account that ARod and Cano will likely be a whole lot better than they were last year.

Good point, ARod really sucked it up with .392 / .573, 150 OPS+He should be at least twice as good next year

In his previous 3 seasons, he averaged about 136 RBI per season and never missed more than 8 games. Last year he had 103 RBI and missed 24 games. But you're right, 33 RBI (and a drop off of a whopping 53 from 2007) don't mean anything.

Good idea, pick his MVP season and career best year and assume he will repeat it...

Wow, I had no idea I said he'd repeat 2007...amazing job of reading between the lines to find out what I actually intended to say!But here's the thing: I ACTUALLY compared last year's stats to the three previous seasons, and only mentioned 2007 to reference how much of a drop-off there was between those two years. But once again, three year stat compilations usually mean nothing. I bow to your baseball acumen.

Mike, you're being a bit obtuse here. You happened to pick his two best seasons ever within your 3 year sample - which any Yankee fan would like to pretend is reality.Here is a 10 year chart of his OPS+.

http://img33.picoodle.com/img/img33/3/1/12...edm_2105d9e.jpg

Answer me this - do you expect ARod next year to be between 160 and 170, or 150 and 160. What is more likely? 7 of his past 10 seasons have been below 160, and he is not getting any younger. If you really think last year was a 'down' year for him, and expect him to do a lot better next year, you are blinded by homerism. The man was 2nd in the league in OPS last year. Only one player better than him swinging the bat. And you call this a down year, and that Yankee fans should expect much better next year.

Cmon man

I expect him to be roughly the same, perhaps a tick up in improvement, but your 'whole lot better' comment is preposterous

 

[wilked]

Also, FWIW, Marcel projections have him at 0.931 OPS, and Chone at 0.961 (roughly the same as last year).

If you want to make a wager on if he cracks 1.000 on OPS I am definitely game

 

[Michael Brown]

DY you aren't taking into account that ARod and Cano will likely be a whole lot better than they were last year.

Good point, ARod really sucked it up with .392 / .573, 150 OPS+He should be at least twice as good next year

In his previous 3 seasons, he averaged about 136 RBI per season and never missed more than 8 games. Last year he had 103 RBI and missed 24 games. But you're right, 33 RBI (and a drop off of a whopping 53 from 2007) don't mean anything.

Good idea, pick his MVP season and career best year and assume he will repeat it...

Wow, I had no idea I said he'd repeat 2007...amazing job of reading between the lines to find out what I actually intended to say!But here's the thing: I ACTUALLY compared last year's stats to the three previous seasons, and only mentioned 2007 to reference how much of a drop-off there was between those two years. But once again, three year stat compilations usually mean nothing. I bow to your baseball acumen.

Mike, you're being a bit obtuse here. You happened to pick his two best seasons ever within your 3 year sample - which any Yankee fan would like to pretend is reality.Here is a 10 year chart of his OPS+.

http://img33.picoodle.com/img/img33/3/1/12...edm_2105d9e.jpg

Answer me this - do you expect ARod next year to be between 160 and 170, or 150 and 160. What is more likely? 7 of his past 10 seasons have been below 160, and he is not getting any younger. If you really think last year was a 'down' year for him, and expect him to do a lot better next year, you are blinded by homerism. The man was 2nd in the league in OPS last year. Only one player better than him swinging the bat. And you call this a down year, and that Yankee fans should expect much better next year.

Cmon man

I expect him to be roughly the same, perhaps a tick up in improvement, but your 'whole lot better' comment is preposterous

DY was talking about run production, not OPS. I'd guess ARod will be closer to 136 than 103. That was why I said he'd be a whole lot better. Assuming he plays 150+ games like he usually does, it'll be tough to drive in any less than 120 runs in that lineup. Figure that driving in 95-100 runs batting cleanup in almost any lineup is a given. Now factor in that it's the Yankee lineup and that he's the most talented player in the game, and I think it's very likely that he drives in 120-130. That would be an uptick of anywhere from 17-27 RBI this year, which I consider to be a significant total.Even just the 15-20 extra games he'll play assuming relative health would account for 10+ RBI alone.

 

[David Yudkin]

DY you aren't taking into account that ARod and Cano will likely be a whole lot better than they were last year.

Good point, ARod really sucked it up with .392 / .573, 150 OPS+He should be at least twice as good next year

In his previous 3 seasons, he averaged about 136 RBI per season and never missed more than 8 games. Last year he had 103 RBI and missed 24 games. But you're right, 33 RBI (and a drop off of a whopping 53 from 2007) don't mean anything.

Good idea, pick his MVP season and career best year and assume he will repeat it...

Wow, I had no idea I said he'd repeat 2007...amazing job of reading between the lines to find out what I actually intended to say!But here's the thing: I ACTUALLY compared last year's stats to the three previous seasons, and only mentioned 2007 to reference how much of a drop-off there was between those two years. But once again, three year stat compilations usually mean nothing. I bow to your baseball acumen.

Mike, you're being a bit obtuse here. You happened to pick his two best seasons ever within your 3 year sample - which any Yankee fan would like to pretend is reality.Here is a 10 year chart of his OPS+.

http://img33.picoodle.com/img/img33/3/1/12...edm_2105d9e.jpg

Answer me this - do you expect ARod next year to be between 160 and 170, or 150 and 160. What is more likely? 7 of his past 10 seasons have been below 160, and he is not getting any younger. If you really think last year was a 'down' year for him, and expect him to do a lot better next year, you are blinded by homerism. The man was 2nd in the league in OPS last year. Only one player better than him swinging the bat. And you call this a down year, and that Yankee fans should expect much better next year.

Cmon man

I expect him to be roughly the same, perhaps a tick up in improvement, but your 'whole lot better' comment is preposterous

DY was talking about run production, not OPS. I'd guess ARod will be closer to 136 than 103. That was why I said he'd be a whole lot better. Assuming he plays 150+ games like he usually does, it'll be tough to drive in any less than 120 runs in that lineup. Figure that driving in 95-100 runs batting cleanup in almost any lineup is a given. Now factor in that it's the Yankee lineup and that he's the most talented player in the game, and I think it's very likely that he drives in 120-130. That would be an uptick of anywhere from 17-27 RBI this year, which I consider to be a significant total.Even just the 15-20 extra games he'll play assuming relative health would account for 10+ RBI alone.

As I posted in the Red Sox thread, it's easy to distort the numbers when people asume total health for one team and pray for injuries to the other.In this case, there's a finite number of runs that a team will score. So while I agree in theory with MB that the cleanup spot in NY should account for X number of runs, I suspect that that would come from that spot in the lineup maybe not one particular guy.

I suspect MB would suggest that the 3-4-5 spots in the Yankees lineup would total 400 RBI, which could be possible but is far from a given. Injuries happen . . . both to the 3-4-5 hitters but also the tablesetters which is why the projected numbers rarely get met.

So while I agree that the heart of the order is excellent and adding a healthy (but getting older) Posada should help. The other spots have some questions in my book, not major ones, but some none the less.

 

[wilked]

DY was talking about run production, not OPS. I'd guess ARod will be closer to 136 than 103.Even just the 15-20 extra games he'll play assuming relative health would account for 10+ RBI alone.

The thing is, others filled in for him last year, and while I won't pull any numbers they certainly drove in some runs.If you are saying the offense will be much better because ARod will play a dozen more games next year, again I would question that. An extra dozen games by ARod is at best an additional win (ARod generally averages around 6-10 WARP), and more likely about half a win.Anyway, suppose the horse is dead by now. The main question I still see out there with the Yankees outfield is the question of if they would add Manny...

 

[cobalt_27]

DY was talking about run production, not OPS. I'd guess ARod will be closer to 136 than 103.Even just the 15-20 extra games he'll play assuming relative health would account for 10+ RBI alone.

The thing is, others filled in for him last year, and while I won't pull any numbers they certainly drove in some runs.If you are saying the offense will be much better because ARod will play a dozen more games next year, again I would question that. An extra dozen games by ARod is at best an additional win (ARod generally averages around 6-10 WARP), and more likely about half a win.Anyway, suppose the horse is dead by now. The main question I still see out there with the Yankees outfield is the question of if they would add Manny...

Bad karma if they do. Take the name off his back, wipe away the dreads, and that disorganized head of his and...yeah...what a beast at the plate. But, the law of unintended consequences takes into effect. And, while by no means does Manny choke in the clutch like ARod routinely does...there is something about him on the Yanks I just don't trust. It's way, way beyond him having Red Sox roots (I'd take Beckett, Pedroia, Lester off your hands in a heartbeat, if I had the choice). I just never liked the vibe of having Manny in pinstripes, creating a circus 10x the circus NY already makes of itself.

 

[Sammy3469]

Why would anybody assume Cano is going to be anything but marginally better?Until he stops hacking up there, I'm going to assume he'll suck. He's not a very good player.

And I also question the whole "Arod will be better this year". Sure he could improve, but at this point he's on the wrong side of 30 and people are comparing last year to his otherwordly 2007. I also question if this team can stay healthy for an entire year. Everyone is a year older and besides for Teix, CC, Wang, and Cano everyone is on the wrong side of 30.

 

[The Man from Laramie]

This thread ignores the fact that they've seemingly improved both their offense and pitching while taking on LESS payroll than in 2008. Sure, their defense might be worse, but it wasn't so good last year either.I think the Yankees start 2009 an improved team, even with these problems.

Certainly is debatable if their offense IN TOTAL is improved, and with weaker defense, the improved pitching could give up more runs with weaker defense.

I'll take an improved offense and an improved pitching staff any day, if it comes at the expense of a somewhat diminished OF defense (which is already mitigated somewhat by Teixeira at 1B over our previous 1B defense).

Making the argument that the Yankees are not a better team going into 2009 than they were in 2008 is a stretch. Taking injuries into account alone...this is how nomaas.org sums it up:

8 - Injuries, Injuries, InjuriesEvery baseball team must learn to deal with injuries, but the Yankees were hit hard this year at a number of positions where they couldn't afford their players to miss time. Nobody expected Jorge Posada to repeat his MVP-quality hitting from 2007, but an injury to his shoulder limited him to 168 at bats, with his numbers being filled in by Jose Molina (OPS+ 51), Chad Moeller (OPS+ 69), and Pudge Rodriguez (OPS+ 51). The ace of our staff, Chien-Ming Wang, was lost for the season while running the bases, which opened up bunch of innings for Sidney Ponson, Darrell Rasner, and yes, Kei Igawa. A-Rod, Jeter, Matsui, Damon, Joba, Hughes, and Kennedy all lost time to injury.

Wang and Posada being on the field a full 162 (or at least a good chunk of them) almost single handedly will account for losing Giambi and Abreu.

Any team should be expected to do better if everyone were healthy. The Sox could ceratinly say the same thing with inujuries to Schilling, Beckett, Ortiz, Drew, Lowell, Lugo, etc. As I alluded to earlier in one of these threads, the Yanks lost roughly 200 RBI with Abreau and Giambi leaving. Their catchers combined last year drove in 50+. Getting Posada back should get them another 35 runs.Their outfield even with Abreau was a bit of a question mark. Now for the 3 OF spots and DH they will have to pick from Damon, Matsui, Nady, Swisher, Cabrera, and Gardner (unless of course they make a move for someone else.) If we say that 2 OF slots and DH remain the same, I don't think that last OF spot would get the same production as Abreau gave them, and I'm guessing no Abreau will probably cost them 25 runs.By my math, that would mean that Texeira would need 90 runs to make things even (85 RBI from Posada, 75 from the RF spot = 160. Abreau, Giambi, and catchers last year = 250). Give Tex 110-120 RBI and runs wise the Yanks will probably be 20-30 runs better offensively.As also noted previously, Mussina and Pettitte accounted for 34 wins. Wang, Pavano, Bruney and Giese (their total combined number of starts were pretty equal to what Wang would normally get) totalled 14 wins. So IMO, last year Mussina, Pettitte, and Wang's spot in the rotation accounted for 48 wins.Clearly all we can do is guess what will happen in 09. If we assign Wang 19 wins (what he had the two previous seasons), Sabathia 16 wins (his average the past 3 seasons), and Burnett 13 wins (his average the last 3 seasons), that adds up to . . . 48 wins. Certainly all of this guys could do better playing on the Yankees and all, but the point was that it's not a slam dunk that these guys will win leaps and bounds more games than the 08 model of the Yankees.Certainly if the pitchers behind Wang/CC/AJ in the roration pitch better there are more wins to be had, and that's likely where the Yanks will have to do their gaining in the win column.

You simply cannot make a good case for analysis by using RBIs and Wins (by Pitchers). And my point was, while injuries plague all teams, the Yankees got the bubonic plague last season. Sure, it's a factor of their being old, and this year the bench is once again abysmal, but on paper this team is better than last season's.

 

[shadyridr]

Why would anybody assume Cano is going to be anything but marginally better?

Until he stops hacking up there, I'm going to assume he'll suck. He's not a very good player.

And I also question the whole "Arod will be better this year". Sure he could improve, but at this point he's on the wrong side of 30 and people are comparing last year to his otherwordly 2007.

I also question if this team can stay healthy for an entire year. Everyone is a year older and besides for Teix, CC, Wang, and Cano everyone is on the wrong side of 30.

Really?

 

[=Smackdown=]

2010 OF FA's which also means soon to be Yankees . . .

LF - Matt Holliday

CF - Rick Ankiel

RF - Vladimir Guerrero

I don't see a problem

 

[The Man from Laramie]

Why would anybody assume Cano is going to be anything but marginally better?

Until he stops hacking up there, I'm going to assume he'll suck. He's not a very good player.

AGE YEAR TEAM G AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI SB CS SO BB HBP SH SF IBB GDP BA OBP SLG

22 2005 NY_-A 132 522 155 34 4 14 78 62 1 3 68 16 3 7 3 1 16 .297 .320 .458

23 2006 NY_-A 122 482 165 41 1 15 62 78 5 2 54 18 2 1 5 3 19 .342 .365 .525

24 2007 NY_-A 160 617 189 41 7 19 93 97 4 5 85 39 8 1 4 5 19 .306 .353 .488

25 2008 NY_-A 159 597 162 35 3 14 70 72 2 4 65 26 5 1 5 3 18 .271 .305 .410

While Cano has little to no plate discipline, to insinuate that a 26 year old already has his best days behind him just because last year he had by far his worst season seems a little presumptuous.He might have just peaked early, but very few players have career trajectories like that. These numbers would make sense, and would imply a further decrease in output only if Cano turned out to be 5-6 years older than he claims. As it stands, it looks like 2008 was a blip on what should be a decent career.

 

[avoiding injuries]

2010 OF FA's which also means soon to be Yankees . . . LF - Matt HollidayCF - Rick AnkielRF - Vladimir GuerreroI don't see a problem

At least one, maybe two of these players will be on the Yankee's. All 3 could end up in the AL East.

 

[doomsdaydoc]

but back to my original question- who is going to play center for the yankees this season?

 

[firecrackerfreakshow]

Gardner will likely, barring a trade, bat ninth and play CF

 

[wilked]

2010 OF FA's which also means soon to be Yankees . . . LF - Matt HollidayCF - Rick AnkielRF - Vladimir GuerreroI don't see a problem

Where's Jason Bay?