"You Never Take Points Off The Board" (1 Viewer)

[Not Sleeping]

Did anyone else watching MNF tonight notice how similar the illegal leaping/leverage penalty was to San Francisco's Week 2 loss against Dallas?

Week 2: 21-14, SF leading, 11 minutes to go in the 4th quarter.

Akers nails a 55 yarder.

Illegal leverage penalty would have given SF the ball at the 22 with a fresh set of downs.

Harbaugh chooses to keep the field goal instead of going for the throat.

Niners lose in overtime.

Week 15: 13-3, SF leading, 9 minutes to go in the 4th quarter.

Akers makes a 28 yarder.

Illegal leverage penalty can give SF the ball at the 5 with a fresh set of downs.

Niners go for the throat. Gore pounds it in.

Game over.

I understand that Week 2 is slightly different in some key ways...7 point lead instead of 10 point lead...22 yard line instead of 5 yard line. But still, the decision that was made today should have been made back in Week 2. At the very least, it shows how nonsensical the "you never take points off the board" argument is from those who favor Harbaugh's week 2 decision. This week proves that yes, sometimes you do.

 

[Run It Up]

Remember a couple weeks ago when Troy Polamalu uppercutted a loose ball out of the back of the endzone? Remember when they made the wrong call and even though they review it didnt reverse it? Make up call.

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

Remember a couple weeks ago when Troy Polamalu uppercutted a loose ball out of the back of the endzone? Remember when they made the wrong call and even though they review it didnt reverse it? Make up call.

 

[glumpy]

It's just too easy to second guess. This week wouldn't have made a difference--they'd have won anyway--so what's the point?

 

[Neil Beaufort Zod]

It's just too easy to second guess. This week wouldn't have made a difference--they'd have won anyway--so what's the point?

The point is that the thing everybody says (which nobody really says) might not be true, due to a shrewd analysis comparing a 55-yard FG and putting the ball 1st and goal at the five. Duh.

 

[pq9090]

The results oriented thinking in the OP is just as bad as the notion that taking points off the board is always bad.

 

[jon_mx]

The results oriented thinking in the OP is just as bad as the notion that taking points off the board is always bad.

A couple of examples obviously doesn't prove anything, but it does illustrate why a simpleton theory may be off base.

 

[zed2283]

I don't think they really say that anymore anyway.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

If you put enough points on the board you never have to take them off.

 

[solorca]

I honestly cant recall the last time I heard that statement. It has to have been years.

 

[No Way Jose]

When your defense is playing as well as the Niners is right now, you can do whatever you want.

 

[FavreCo]

Harbaugh learned a lesson from week 2. He screwed up. Akers is deadly. He should have taken the points off the board week 2 because Akers still would have made the FG if ### came to that.

 

[Not Sleeping]

Those of you who are saying "no one ever says that" are clearly not 49ers fans. Those of us who are remember how many people shouted "you never take points off the board" like it's some sort of gospel while defending Harbaugh's decision back in Week 2. My only point is that it's a nonsensical saying because, yes, there are clearly times when the right move is to take points off the board.

For those of you complaining about "results-oriented thinking", I apologize for using two roughly similar situations to illustrate a point. The "right call" though has nothing to do with those particular results, and it has nothing to do with hindsight.

The "right call" is the one that gives you the best chance of winning from that point forward. And "taking the points off the board" and accepting a fresh set of downs with the ball in the red zone and the lead, where at the very least you can run off two more minutes, is the "right call", regardless of outcome.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Crossing key numbers can come into play (much like betting teasers). If I'm up 6 and I can make it a 2 score game by making it 9 with a field goal, that may be a good time to leave the points up there.

 

[RUSF18]

Thanks Pat Summerall.

 

[cvnpoka]

how many points do you expect the niners to score with a fresh set from the 22?

and now from the 5?

 

[wdubb]

how many points do you expect the niners to score with a fresh set from the 22? and now from the 5?

this.1st and 10 from 22 or 1st and goal from the 5 is a HUGE difference, especially for a team that's so RZ-challenged as the Niners

 

[RUSF18]

Kind of reminds me of the criticism of Mike Smith's decision to go for 4th and 1 from his own 30 in OT. If you get it, great...you're still at your own 30 yard line. Always need to take field position into account.

 

[Dez]

My friend lost his fantasy game because of that penatly. He had Akers lost 72-71.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

always thought this was a horrible maxim anyway. Maybe if you make a 50 yarder. But if you are anywere where you consider the FG a gimme, you take the points off and try to score. You win more often playing to win rather than playing not to lose in the NFL.

My friend lost his fantasy game because of that penatly. He had Akers lost 72-71.

sounds like a horrible semi game. 71-72? Oof.

 

[Not Sleeping]

how many points do you expect the niners to score with a fresh set from the 22?

and now from the 5?

That is exactly the right question to ask. According to the fine folks at Advanced NFL Stats, the rough expected value of 1st and 10 at the 22 is ~3.7 points. 1st and 10 at the 5 is ~5 points. Both of those are greater than 3. Add to that the fact that you have the lead and the chance to run another two minutes or more off the clock, and it's clearly a statistical error to keep the points.

I know this is crazy to be arguing...as a Niner fan I should be ecstatic with the 11-3 record and leave it at that. But Harbaugh still should have taken the first down.