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Your offseason lock - Who (FA) goes where? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Soulfly3
- Start date
JohnnyU
Footballguy
If that happens I'll poke my eyes out so I don't watch the Super Bowl next year.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Not that I don't want a guy to be an every down back, but Philly's history with RBs suggests they won't spend more than say $5-6M on the entire RB group. Which means you're probably looking at a bargain basement signing.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Is Dobbins done, or does he have a chance to rebound?
-OZ-
Footballguy
That’s a fair point.
Pollard to Philly? Or is he still seen as better than that?
Singletary or Zack Moss?
Soulfly3
Footballguy
If you're giving a single shred of hope on this guy staying healthy....
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Right now he's just an end-of-bench hold for now. So not expecting much, but sometimes we're too quick to write off guys because of injury history. I try not to ever factor that into future projections no matter how much he was hurt in the past. One exception is career ending injuries and Dobbins' last two were bad and a torn Achilles can be a career killer.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
These would be too perfect so it will probably be.
Henry to San Francisco
Ekeler to Jacksonville
Barkley to Seattle
Evans to Chicago
Because fantasy football hates us.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I do too
Winning IS Everything
Footballguy
I would LOVE this, as a Saquon owner. I have a feeling NY will tag him though.
My lock is Cinci tagging Higgins.
No locks for me but some predictions.
Chargers sign Gus Edwards and if not him then maybe Dobbins.
Staying with Baltimore it was already said Henry to Baltimore and I'll go with that as well since they almost traded for him and are more desperate now.
Ridley to the Titans.
Josh Jacobs to the Texans.
Mike Evans to Carolina.
Tony Pollard to the Eagles.
Barkely will reach UFA, get some offers he'll present back to the Giants and they will keep him. Sadly.
Some big names from the past that probably won't matter for fantasy but will at least get a thread bump.
Michael Thomas to Denver.
CEH to Buffalo.
Hunter Henry goes back to the Chargers.
Chargers sign Gus Edwards and if not him then maybe Dobbins.
Staying with Baltimore it was already said Henry to Baltimore and I'll go with that as well since they almost traded for him and are more desperate now.
Ridley to the Titans.
Josh Jacobs to the Texans.
Mike Evans to Carolina.
Tony Pollard to the Eagles.
Barkely will reach UFA, get some offers he'll present back to the Giants and they will keep him. Sadly.
Some big names from the past that probably won't matter for fantasy but will at least get a thread bump.
Michael Thomas to Denver.
CEH to Buffalo.
Hunter Henry goes back to the Chargers.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
My guess is Howie waits out the RB market. There are a ton of big-name guys who are UFA and there's a pretty good chance that someone will be available later in FA at a price that is way below what their initial ask was. That is the guy that Howie will go after on a 1-year "show me deal" at a discount.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Devante Adams to the Jets, trade for not much in return but clears the books for the Raiders as they rebuild their Offense including trading up for a QB in the Draft
Saquon Barkley to the Dallas Cowboys, this one seems easy. If not there then I would see him in Minnesota, nothing like him on the roster, won't reset RB market
Connor Williams will go up the road to Tampa Bay where they need to nail down the Center position and also need IOL, they have money to burn
Russ Wilson to Atlanta, they cannot keep going with Ridder...think the Bucs might also raise their hand here. Not a fan but he might be an upgrade over Baker and I doubt he is going to cost anywhere close to what he was making in Denver, that time is over.
Saquon Barkley to the Dallas Cowboys, this one seems easy. If not there then I would see him in Minnesota, nothing like him on the roster, won't reset RB market
Connor Williams will go up the road to Tampa Bay where they need to nail down the Center position and also need IOL, they have money to burn
Russ Wilson to Atlanta, they cannot keep going with Ridder...think the Bucs might also raise their hand here. Not a fan but he might be an upgrade over Baker and I doubt he is going to cost anywhere close to what he was making in Denver, that time is over.
5-ish Finkle
Footballguy
Ryan Tannehill rejoins Artie Smith to "backup Kenny Pickett"....before starting around 10 games anyway.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Russ will be on the bus to Pittsburgh. 
None of the following skill position players switch teams:
QB=Kirk Cousins, Baker Mayfield, Ryan Tannehill (as a backup/insurance/mentor to Levis)
RB=Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry
WR=Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman, Mike Evans
TE=Dalton Schultz, Hunter Henry, Noah Fant
QB=Kirk Cousins, Baker Mayfield, Ryan Tannehill (as a backup/insurance/mentor to Levis)
RB=Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry
WR=Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman, Mike Evans
TE=Dalton Schultz, Hunter Henry, Noah Fant
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Hunter Henry to MIA
Fields to PIT (trade)
Higgins to CAR (franchise tag + trade)
Cousins stays in MIN
Mike Evans to DAL
Ridley stays in JAX
Derek Henry to the Ravens
Fields to PIT (trade)
Higgins to CAR (franchise tag + trade)
Cousins stays in MIN
Mike Evans to DAL
Ridley stays in JAX
Derek Henry to the Ravens
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
I read it costs JAX a second to keep him. I don't say this to contradict you, but in hopes that it might be a jump-off point for some opinions on whether he's worth an NFL Draft second.
-OZ-
Footballguy
maybe, but I don’t think he’s worth basically trading a 2nd and paying him. Don’t they also get a comp pick if they lose him?
As of right now the Jaguars owe the Falcons their 2024 third round pick. If they resign him before the new league year they owe them a second instead of a third. If they extend him after the new league year(March 13th I think), which means letting him hit UFA, they would not owe them anything additional then the third they already owe them.
I'm fuzzy on what happens if they tagged him, but from what I understand that option is being reserved for Josh Allen.
And yes I would think the Jags would get a comp pick back next year.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Correct.
That it’s at worst a 2nd instead of a 3rd makes that a much more doable prospect
But at age 29, about to be 30, it’s fair to wonder what kind of contract they’re willing to extend.
Ridley may want a multi-year somewhere else - it’s likely to be his last payday.
I still think JAX is his most likely destination, but that’s just a gut call.
The average tag for RBs went up from 10 to 12.4 and owners are reportedly upset.
I take that to mean we spent years getting RBs salaries down and are not paying top dollar now.
Also most of the name backs are 27-29 and dangerously close to the cliff of their career.
Last year, no one wanted Dalvin Cook.
Saquan and Jacobs and Ekeler were not going to be paid....and then they were.
I think there's a real strong issue here that has to play out and personally it reminds me of a few years with a couple Seattle backs like Shaun and then Demarco Murray. The league will absolutely pull the rug out if they want to.
I think owners make other owners happy with incentive deals. No one seemed to mind Ekeler getting 3 mil in easily attainable incentives added.
Leonard Fournette has twice not been the darling of free agency and last year was brutal for him.
Kareem Hunt had an agent have him turn down offers and almost had nothing til the Browns needed him.
I think it's very touch n go with RBs and we may see a couple names flat out done because they wanted too much
I take that to mean we spent years getting RBs salaries down and are not paying top dollar now.
Also most of the name backs are 27-29 and dangerously close to the cliff of their career.
Last year, no one wanted Dalvin Cook.
Saquan and Jacobs and Ekeler were not going to be paid....and then they were.
I think there's a real strong issue here that has to play out and personally it reminds me of a few years with a couple Seattle backs like Shaun and then Demarco Murray. The league will absolutely pull the rug out if they want to.
I think owners make other owners happy with incentive deals. No one seemed to mind Ekeler getting 3 mil in easily attainable incentives added.
Leonard Fournette has twice not been the darling of free agency and last year was brutal for him.
Kareem Hunt had an agent have him turn down offers and almost had nothing til the Browns needed him.
I think it's very touch n go with RBs and we may see a couple names flat out done because they wanted too much
Prediction- Cincy won't re-sign Higgins and...and if they tag him with plans to tag n trade, no one will take that offer.
He would eat up a lot of their available cap so they're really playing w fire.
I also very much think we're learning they do not like all the young backup WRs we thought they would.
He would eat up a lot of their available cap so they're really playing w fire.
I also very much think we're learning they do not like all the young backup WRs we thought they would.
ChiefD
Footballguy
I don't see the Chiefs paying big money for a receiver actually. Maybe a couple guys on one year deals that can actually catch the ball, but they just won a Super Bowl with that crap show of a group.
I think they sign Jones and some other defensive pieces to try and keep this elite defense back together for at least one more year.
At receiver they will draft someone I think and sign a couple new guys to fill that room since Toney and MVS won't be here. Sky Moore I think stays still since he knows the offense and at least can be a pawn to help move defenders.
I think they sign Jones and some other defensive pieces to try and keep this elite defense back together for at least one more year.
At receiver they will draft someone I think and sign a couple new guys to fill that room since Toney and MVS won't be here. Sky Moore I think stays still since he knows the offense and at least can be a pawn to help move defenders.
nirad3
Footballguy
What if Evans agreed to come at a "discount"?
ChiefD
Footballguy
I still don't see it unless the discount is major. This offense needs a guy but to me Evans has a ring. So he has no reason to chase one.
I'm not going to go look it all up but I've read multiple reports that suggest you can't find a player more adverse to taking a discount then Evans. That he wants no part of that, bases his value on his pay(hard to argue with) and wants to be paid major money and is looking to be one of the highest paid WR's in the league.
This does not fit the Chiefs cost structure at all.
FarFromHome
Footballguy
My gut said Evans to Chiefs was done. I recently changed my mind. Sounds like Evans wants to get paid. Chiefs ain't paying him. Got no problem with that Mr Evans. Go get your money. Obviously not a lock but my gut now says Bears pay him what he wants to pair him with Moore to set Caleb Williams up nicely.
Living just outside of Atlanta I think all local sports shows already have Fields as their week 1 starting QB. I agree.
Living just outside of Atlanta I think all local sports shows already have Fields as their week 1 starting QB. I agree.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I could see them getting a couple of the lower tier guys to replace MVS & Toney.
Gabe Davis just feels like an Andy Reid guy. Willing blocker, good teammate, not a knucklehead. He’s the anti-Toney. And he’s likely inexpensive.
Skyy Moore has pretty well proven he isn’t an NFL WR. I’m skeptical they entrust him as a WR 2 or 3.
But overall I agree they are likely to not get a big name. Unless someone wants to chase a ring on a 1 or 2 year deal, which is certainly possible.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
As a fields shareholder I wouldn’t mind it a bit. Fast indoor track, good defense, nice OL & surrounded with offensive weapons. That would be a great fit.
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Da Franchise
Footballguy
Agree with a lot of things I’ve seen in here so far. I’ll add:
Noah Fant- Washington
Curtis Samuel- KC (very price sensitive so it’s iffy but it’s a great fit)
Gabe Davis- Tampa (if they lose Evans)
Hollywood Brown or Ridley- New England (cap space and desperate for speed)
My big disagreement with most so far is I think Cousins leaves for Atlanta
Ultimately I expect most guys stay put, one way or another.
Noah Fant- Washington
Curtis Samuel- KC (very price sensitive so it’s iffy but it’s a great fit)
Gabe Davis- Tampa (if they lose Evans)
Hollywood Brown or Ridley- New England (cap space and desperate for speed)
My big disagreement with most so far is I think Cousins leaves for Atlanta
Ultimately I expect most guys stay put, one way or another.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
While we’re at it:
Al-Shaair makes his triumphant return to SF to take Greenlaw’s spot while he recovers from the torn Achilles.
What makes you say that?
I had him last year and he didn't do my FF team much good
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
He filled in admirably for Higgins when the latter was hurt. With Browning throwing in his general direction, inaccurately.
He had a couple of nice moments - nothing spectacular for the FF stat line, but he wasn’t lost out there. Looked like he ran solid routes and got separation. He has size & decent speed.
IIRC he got more work than Charlie Jones, too.
Hard to expect much without Burrow, and as the 3rd option and again, I can’t emphasize enough, Browning throwing him the ball - but he didn’t fall on his face, either.
Also I’d read in the preseason that the team was high on him.
Interesting contrast. I don't remember it that way and just went to PFR and see why.
I too read he was favorable in camp and jumped on board but from my perspective he never had more than one catch per game despite each of their starters missing time.
He had a four and five catch game in the FF playoffs and I think I dropped him by then.
I went way younger at WR last year and had both U of Tennessee WRs and ...needed some production.
Jones I also had and may still on IR. He looked and played like a guy still recovering so (for dynasty) I think I just thought 2023 was a lost year.
Boston
Footballguy
I would also add that he is an Ivy League kid so you have to believe last year was more about development…kind of a big difference between playing the Ravens and Dartmouth…he ended the year doing some productive things and I would not be surprised if he gets some positive reviews once camp begins.
rzrback77
Footballguy
Seems a little harsh on Browning. The few games that I saw him play, he was excellent, so he passed my eye test. Just reviewed QB stats and Browning completed over 70% of his passes and had an 8.0 ypa. Only QBs with higher ypa were Purdy, Stroud and Tua, with Lamar Jackson equal to Browning’s 8.0.
-OZ-
Footballguy
he doesn’t strike me as a long term starting caliber QB but a very good backup or bridge. (And I could easily be wrong). He does what he should.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I picked up Browning in a SF & started him a few times.
Stats don’t tell the whole picture. He came out on fire and was productive but extremely inconsistent.
And for all his positive FF numbers, his on-field play was not great.
I’m not at all “harsh” - he wasn’t an accurate QB overall. He looked like a backup who did yeoman’s work filling in for Burrow, but had as many bad moments as good.
• He had 12 TD in 7 starts. He also had 7 Ints.
• 70% completion looks better when you don’t look game by game to see that it’s bolstered by 2 games over 80%, but low yardage/volume output in one of those 2 games.
• he had 1 great game at JAX where he went 32/37 (86%) for 354/1, and rushed for another TD. I started him at SF that game & he helped to win me the week.
• he also had 5 games with under 20 completions. His % in those games was: 57.6%, 57.1%, 75%, 73.1%, and 75%.
Like I said - it’s a mixed bag. He had a 66.7% game where he was 28/42 with 1 TD & 3 Ints. So it’s fairly clear that the more they used him, the less reliable he was.
He didn’t go out and fall on his face, but the Bengals also tried not to lean on him too much. The games I watched he was up and down, save for the game at JAX where he looked like he could be a legit NFL starter. He had several other games where he looked like Jake Browning.
Competition % is a small part of playing QB.
And YPA had a lot to do with the run & gun style of play they called for him. Probably also had a lot to do with the whopping 25 sacks he took over an 8 game span (7 starts) including 6 against KC. Easy to have high YPA when it’s 2nd & 16 all the time. Comparing him to Purdy & LJax seems somewhat misguided in that light.
Worth noting, all those sacks were in his 7 starts. While the Bengals OL wasn’t great, it’s also fair to say he did not have great pocket awareness. Someone should tell him it’s ok to throw the ball away every now and then.
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