For those suggesting fairness: Dallas and Washington were penalized harshly by the league for circumventing the cap when there was no cap (strike killed the cap for a bit). If the rest of the league owners want to punish your team, it's going to happen. Both of these teams had legal recourse available to them, but both just took their unfair punishments.
My gut tells me these things:
- NFL refs were extremely lax in checking the pressure of footballs before or during an NFL game. It was likely widely accepted that your QB could play with footballs that he liked regardless of the psi reading.
- The Patriots pushed this by introducing game balls below the starting threshold that would lose a lot of psi by the time the game would play (We can all guess at the method, but I seriously doubt the league knows exactly what was done)
- A sting was likely put in play, based on an earlier game, but no one fully informed the refs exactly how to carry this out. And because they were not routinely doing their job (checking psi and logging the results), the sting got botched.
- The NFL has had ample opportunity to make this go away by admitting this was a rule that wasn't really enforced. Refs did not routinely check the pressure, etc. They could have even put the Patriots (and the rest of the NFL) on notice by saying balls confiscated ended the game below stated psi levels. And this would be something the league took much more serious going forward, etc. When the league chose not to announce anything immediately, I believe they will punish the Patriots (regardless of evidence collected)
- It probably will not be fair (and likely could not stand up to a court process). The Commish (and NFL office) appear to have a vendetta in play. It could very well have to do with them feeling they "saved" the Patriots by destroying all of the Spygate tapes so they expected better from them, etc. Or it could just be that Goodell is a puppet to the rest of the owners and they refuse to let up on this.
- For all the Patriots fans, this has to suck really bad. The league has tarnished your guys image a lot with this scandal. The findings / lack of proof / etc don't really matter anymore. If the final penalties are light, the "salty haters" think they were spared again. If they are heavy, those "haters" are saying yes, this team just cheats to win.
- I am sure I will enjoy the game when it is happening, but this has soured the contest a lot for me. Vegas set this line super close. People are massively divided as to who has the better team. This should have been set up as something great to watch instead of the soap opera that it has become.