Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Ack88

Members
  • Content Count

    1,418
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Community Reputation

364 Excellent

About Ack88

  • Rank
    Footballguy

Contact Methods

  • Website URL
    http://
  • ICQ
    0

Profile Information

  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Rhode Island

Previous Fields

  • Favorite NFL Team
    Dallas Cowboys

Recent Profile Visitors

9,420 profile views
  1. Still hoping against hope that Le'Veon ends up in KC. Still, Williams had a nice playoff stretch. Feel like the Chiefs do take an RB in the first three rounds of the draft and/or deal for Bell or L. Miller.
  2. In a world full of uncertain outcomes, the periodic continuation of this 67 page thread brings a smile to my face. We are truly a wonderful compendium of dorks and I am proud to be here!
  3. This is beyond tragic. I'm just trying to cope. Never routed for the Lakers (Celtics fan) but this was a serious gut punch. Thoughts and prayers to his family. This just sucks in every way possible.
  4. I would love that. Been keeping my fingers crossed for that deal for weeks. Seems unlikely, but we can dream.
  5. Mostert has made the most of his opportunities but a crowded backfield this will remain. Coleman will be back and play a role and Breida has shown he can be outstanding with managed used. This has the look of a three headed monster next year, which is great in real football and problematic for fantasy. The Niners won't voluntarily change this calculus; it has brought them to a NFC title and a potential Super Bowl trophy. I would be surprised if they pick and RB in the first two or three rounds, but if the board lines up a certain way once they go through their valuation process and the right player falls to them based upon their board, you can't rule it out. Mostert will have value next year but, at this point, he looks like someone that ends up around RB20 right now.
  6. If Brady leaves the Patriots are certainly done. If he comes back, they have as good a shot as anyone next year. There is no doubt in my mind that the only way Brady returns is if there is an upgrade in surrounding talent.
  7. Think the Niners win this game. Just a slightly better overall team with no discernible weakness. They are gritty and tough. Guys like Deebo and Kittle are easy to root for. This team is an extension of John Lynch’s persona. As a Cowboys fan, I’m jealous, as the Niners have shown what happens when organizations are well run. The Chiefs are good and Mahomes gives them a decent shot but in a Super Bowl, I’ll plant my flag on the team that appears tougher and plays better defense.
  8. Top 50 now listed: Edited 1/19.20 1. Zeke Elliot- Relatively speaking, not his best year, but is set up beautifully for long term success. Still think he cracks 2K one of these years. My only hesitation is that the long runs were not there this year, and that is a red flag. Still, my number one overall player with a safe floor. Think McCarthy benefits every offensive player on the Cowboys. 2. Saquon Barkley- A generational talent that had some injuries this year. Think NYG gets him a good surrounding cast. Think next years iteration looks more like rookie year than this past year. It will be interesting to see how the Giants draft at #4 overall (A. Thomas, J. Jeudy?) He’s the single most physically gifted player in the NFL. The only reason I take Zeke over Saquon is Zeke has a higher floor and that’s my tie breaker in the early part of drafts/auctions. 3. CMC- He's #1 on almost anyone's list and I cannot argue with that. Has played the most complete RB position in a long, long time. Moves to #1 in ppr. Was literally a cheat code this past season. The hiring of Matt Ruhle does not alter my calculus for next year. 4. D. Cook- Hegemonic statistical year. Can't rank him any lower and he, like Zeke, has the perfect infrastructure surrounding him to put up several dominant years going forward. Injuries always a mitigating factor for me at the very top of round #1. 5. D. Henry- Time for me to eat some humble pie. Henry was #17 on my original list. My first repositioning was to move him to #13 overall. Presuming he resigns in Nashville and the component, surrounding parts remain the same, I’ve got to move him up into the top 10. 6. Michael Thomas- Neck and neck with Cook, but is just too consistent. A catch and yardage machine. As this list is for keepers (instead of true dynasty and Brees looks to be back next year), this is his ceiling for me. Have seen him as high as #2 overall. 7. D. Adams- Safe, reliable and consistent. Yes, he missed time but is a volume and target monster that I'll happily choose in the middle of round #1. Another player that I think produces a line in 2020 that is more reminiscent of his 2018, rather than his 2019, season. 8. A. Jones- Due for some touchdown regression but looked every bit the elite back many ff players thought he would be this year. Has a complete skill set and the surrounding parts look to be back next year. 9. A. Kamara- Due some significant, positive TD rate correction next year. Previous dominant seasons keep him in the round #1 conversation for me despite a down 2019. His elusiveness and chunk play ability offers top 3 upside. 10. M. Evans- He stays here if Winston returns. Will drop if Jameis goes. IMO has the highest ceiling of all ff wides. Still has yet to have that confluence of everything breaking right season that could be in the cards. 11. N. Chubb- Hunt provides a little drag on value but has proven to be a cornerstone RB. If Hunt leaves, could move up a couple of slots. 12. D. Hopkins- look up consistency in dictionary, find Hopkins' picture. 13. J. Mixon- Has quietly finished strong. Pitiful supporting cast will get upgrade in 2020. There is a part of me that, given his last half-dozen games or so, move him into the top 7, but just can’t until I see the line play improves. 14. T. Hill- Gamebreaker with elite QB is often a week winner. Conduct questions loom. Still, can't pass here. Always consider the off the field issues as a value drag. 15. J. Jones- Another player that had a down 2019. Still 2017 and 2018 are the likely norm in 2020. Safe and consistent play won’t allow him to fall outside the top 15. 16. J. Jacobs- Another guy I may move up. Impressive rookie season. love the long term outlook and he will get better. 17. L. Fournette- Game scripts, poor defensive play, and a lackluster cast have not completely obscured that LF is a heck of a football player. He’s another player that has a secure workload who’s production is worthy of a first round selection but who has to drop based upon supporting cast. 18. M. Gordon- If he re-ups with SD, move into top of round 2. If not, could move down. 18 is my hedge. Could drop out of top 30 altogether if he signs with a poor team, but could pop up a few if he lands on a team like the Texans. 19. C. Godwin- Career year. Think he'll be good again next year. I would need another year like this to take him over traditionally safer options listed above. Bump down if Jameis leaves. 20. JuJu- He'll be back strong next year with Ben returning. He is a legitimate fantasy lead WR. Injuries and pitiful QB play should not obscure what a player he is. The numbers with Ben are outstanding. Think I’m higher on him than consensus, which will make him a value in my leagues. 21. P. Mahomes- Still great. I'll bet 2020 is closer to 2018 than 2019. Moved him above Lamar for now. Have gone back and forth. As unstoppable as you will find when at Max-Q. Was breathtakingly lethal against the Texans in the divisional round. Trying to guard against recency bias but a week winner. 22. L. Jackson- Cannot let the fantasy MVP drop any further than this. Think there is some regression next year but his ability to run and generate voluminous points with his legs will help offset an inevitable decrease in TD passes next year. 23. J. Connor- Had injury issues and comes with risk. Ben returns next year and think the Steelers get back to previous levels of production on offense. Many have him well outside of this range but I remain a believer. The other backs on the roster do not pose a serious threat and I don’t see the Steelers taking an RB before the final two rounds in April’s draft. 24. A. Cooper- If he's back and Dak resigns Amari makes a fine way to end round 2 in a 12 teamer. Gallup looks like he is emerging which caps the upside, but a solid lead WR. 25. T. Kelce- TE heavy players will have him higher. #1 TE again. Could jump him a few spots, but this feels right to me. In an actual drafting situation, you could go as high as the middle of round two, but the 2-3 turn looks about right. 26. K. Golladay- Worried more about everything around him, but still a fine option here. Stafford will be back and KG is a mismatch against almost any db. The total TDs will go down a tick, but think there is more room for yardage growth. 27. D. Swift- Thinking he ends up in the middle to end of Round #1. If he goes to Miami, he will have little competition for snaps and likely be a 3 down back from day 1. I’m putting him here based upon that narrative. 28. K. Allen- Solid fantasy WR #2. We pretty much know what he is, and that is a solid, but not elite fantasy WR. Rivers back? 29. G. Kittle- Still an absolute beast. Slow start this year should not obscure ability. 9ers have a nice surrounding cast, limiting upside. 30. OBJ- Has to make this list based on talent alone. landing spot? The coaching can’t be worse than it was last year. Mayfield will be better and Landry is meant to be a wr #2. I’ll happily buy on him in the third round. 31. M. Sanders- I love the talent. Flashed explosion and versatility. Excellent fit in the Eagles offense and will benefit from a more healthy team next year. He’s only this low because the Eagles backfield again looks like a timeshare. 32.C. Carson- Love the physical, aggressive style of play. Tough and gritty but I’m afraid of the injuries. Simply absorbs (and gives out) too much contact to complete the year. Is having hip surgery soon. I’d let someone else take the risk. 33. K. Johnson- Injuries have derailed what started as positive campaigns. I like him as a buy low candidate. Has little competition for snaps, a versatile skill set, and Stafford back in the fold. 34. AJ Brown- Flashed explosion and ability. Excellent YAC. Team is well balanced. Think Brown has all the makings of a high end WR2 for fantasy purposes. 35. J. Taylor- with Etienne staying at Clemson, I see Taylor wearing KC colors after being selected in round #2. 36. M. Mack- Another player I like but don’t love. Not convinced he can handle a full workload. Has generally been good when he plays but not a true 3 down back. 37. S. Diggs- Some volatility built in and Theilen’s presumed return to full health complicates his upside. He’s a solid WR2 with spike week outcomes interspersed. 38. C. Sutton- He came on strong this year and looks to be a player for years. If Lock is the real deal, Sutton could be special. He’s only this low because Lock has yet to deliver for an entire year. 39. L. Bell- Gets here only based on volume. Due for some TD regression. Don’t love him or the team but will get the touches to justify a 3rd or 4th round selection in keeper formats. In dynasty, a clear sell. 40. T. Gurley- See L. Bell. What he has over Bell in terms of situation and surrounding talent is undone by huge injury concerns. 41. A. Ekeler- Moves was up if Gordon leaves. Has stand alone value worthy of 4th round consideration even if Gordon stays. 42. A. Robinson- Was quietly very good from a fantasy perspective despite erratic QB play. 43. A. Theilen- How soon we could forget he was a high end WR the past couple of seasons. While the Vikings remain a run first option and Diggs provides competition for targets, Theilen, while no longer having WR1 upside, should provide stable WR2 value at a relative discount. He will be a target for me. 44. DJ Moore- I’ll put it right out there- I know I’m lower on Moore than consensus. I think he’s a good player. I need to know more about who will be playing QB on Carolina next year before I move him higher. 45. M. Ingram- He is a solid option on a team committed to running the football. Ingram historically outperforms his draft/auction position and appears poised to do so again. 46. Deebo Samuel- If you regularly watch Niners games, you see the growth trajectory. He’s physical, aggressive, and relentless. His ascension should come as no surprise. He’s a player I’m much higher on than most. I think he has legitimate WR1 upside. I want to be careful, though, because I could legitimately put him a round higher, but know come draft/auction time that my valuation is the outlier. 47. P. Lindsay- Despite being on a bad team and having competition from Freeman, Lindsay has been really good his first two years in the league. If Lock is the real deal, Lindsay could ascend further upwards. If I wanted to go WR heavy early on, taking Lindsay in round 4 or 5 provides a fairly stable floor and nice ceiling. 48. K. Drake-Not sure how the Cards will sort in the Arizona backfield. (Sorry, that was a terrible joke but could not resist). Honestly, he’s a player I’m struggling to rank right now in January but, if he ends up in Arizona again and/or DJ is moved, the needle goes up. 49. T. Lockett- Remains an efficiency machine and produces with his touches, even on a run first team. Feel like as Metcalf grows, the upside is limited. It is hard not to like any WR that has Wilson’s eye. 50. Devin Singletary- Role should continue to grow. Awesome mobility in tight spaces but lacks long speed. Shifty and deceptive. Likely will be the lead in some form of timeshare. Allen, of course, remains a TD vulture.
  9. Lamar Jackson is both great and fun to watch. Make no mistake, defenses will slow that offense down. The curve will come around. Jackson will still be really good and his growth as a passer is noteworthy, but these types of, for lack of a better term, “wildcat” offenses eventually get figured out. Jackson is still an excellent QB, but Mahomes is an easy choice for me.
  10. Updated 1/13 to include a top 40. Please remember this is a keeper centric format list. Think halfway between dynasty and redraft. 1. Zeke Elliot- Relatively speaking, not his best year, but is set up beautifully for long term success. Still think he cracks 2K one of these years. My only hesitation is that the long runs were not there this year, and that is a red flag. Still, my number one overall player with a safe floor. Think McCarthy benefits every offensive player on the Cowboys. 2. Saquon Barkley- A generational talent that had some injuries this year. Think NYG gets him a good surrounding cast. Think next years iteration looks more like rookie year than this past year. It will be interesting to see how the Giants draft at #4 overall (A. Thomas, J. Jeudy?) He’s the single most physically gifted player in the NFL. The only reason I take Zeke over Saquon is Zeke has a higher floor and that’s my tie breaker in the early part of drafts/auctions. 3. CMC- He's #1 on almost anyone's list and I cannot argue with that. Has played the most complete RB position in a long, long time. Moves to #1 in ppr. Was literally a cheat code this past season. The hiring of Matt Ruhle does not alter my calculus for next year. 4. D. Cook- Hegemonic statistical year. Can't rank him any lower and he, like Zeke, has the perfect infrastructure surrounding him to put up several dominant years going forward. Injuries always a mitigating factor for me at the very top of round #1. 5. D. Henry- Time for me to eat some humble pie. Henry was #17 on my original list. My first repositioning was to move him to #13 overall. Presuming he resigns in Nashville and the component, surrounding parts remain the same, I’ve got to move him up into the top 10. 6. Michael Thomas- Neck and neck with Cook, but is just too consistent. A catch and yardage machine. As this list is for keepers (instead of true dynasty and Brees looks to be back next year), this is his ceiling for me. Have seen him as high as #2 overall. 7. D. Adams- Safe, reliable and consistent. Yes, he missed time but is a volume and target monster that I'll happily choose in the middle of round #1. Another player that I think produces a line in 2020 that is more reminiscent of his 2018, rather than his 2019, season. 8. A. Jones- Due for some touchdown regression but looked every bit the elite back many ff players thought he would be this year. Has a complete skill set and the surrounding parts look to be back next year. 9. A. Kamara- Due some significant, positive TD rate correction next year. Previous dominant seasons keep him in the round #1 conversation for me despite a down 2019. His elusiveness and chunk play ability offers top 3 upside. 10. M. Evans- He stays here if Winston returns. Will drop if Jameis goes. IMO has the highest ceiling of all ff wides. Still has yet to have that confluence of everything breaking right season that could be in the cards. 11. N. Chubb- Hunt provides a little drag on value but has proven to be a cornerstone RB. If Hunt leaves, could move up a couple of slots. 12. D. Hopkins- look up consistency in dictionary, find Hopkins' picture. 13. J. Mixon- Has quietly finished strong. Pitiful supporting cast will get upgrade in 2020. There is a part of me that, given his last half-dozen games or so, move him into the top 7, but just can’t until I see the line play improves. 14. T. Hill- Gamebreaker with elite QB is often a week winner. Conduct questions loom. Still, can't pass here. Always consider the off the field issues as a value drag. 15. J. Jones- Another player that had a down 2019. Still 2017 and 2018 are the likely norm in 2020. Safe and consistent play won’t allow him to fall outside the top 15. 16. J. Jacobs- Another guy I may move up. Impressive rookie season. love the long term outlook and he will get better. 17. L. Fournette- Game scripts, poor defensive play, and a lackluster cast have not completely obscured that LF is a heck of a football player. He’s another player that has a secure workload who’s production is worthy of a first round selection but who has to drop based upon supporting cast. 18. M. Gordon- If he re-ups with SD, move into top of round 2. If not, could move down. 18 is my hedge. Could drop out of top 30 altogether if he signs with a poor team, but could pop up a few if he lands on a team like the Texans. 19. C. Godwin- Career year. Think he'll be good again next year. I would need another year like this to take him over traditionally safer options listed above. Bump down if Jameis leaves. 20. JuJu- He'll be back strong next year with Ben returning. He is a legitimate fantasy lead WR. Injuries and pitiful QB play should not obscure what a player he is. The numbers with Ben are outstanding. Think I’m higher on him than consensus, which will make him a value in my leagues. 21. P. Mahomes- Still great. I'll bet 2020 is closer to 2018 than 2019. Moved him above Lamar for now. Have gone back and forth. As unstoppable as you will find when at Max-Q. Was breathtakingly lethal against the Texans in the divisional round. Trying to guard against recency bias but a week winner. 22. L. Jackson- Cannot let the fantasy MVP drop any further than this. Think there is some regression next year but his ability to run and generate voluminous points with his legs will help offset an inevitable decrease in TD passes next year. 23. J. Connor- Had injury issues and comes with risk. Ben returns next year and think the Steelers get back to previous levels of production on offense. Many have him well outside of this range but I remain a believer. The other backs on the roster do not pose a serious threat and I don’t see the Steelers taking an RB before the final two rounds in April’s draft. 24. A. Cooper- If he's back and Dak resigns Amari makes a fine way to end round 2 in a 12 teamer. Gallup looks like he is emerging which caps the upside, but a solid lead WR. 25. T. Kelce- TE heavy players will have him higher. #1 TE again. Could jump him a few spots, but this feels right to me. In an actual drafting situation, you could go as high as the middle of round two, but the 2-3 turn looks about right. 26. K. Golladay- Worried more about everything around him, but still a fine option here. Stafford will be back and KG is a mismatch against almost any db. The total TDs will go down a tick, but think there is more room for yardage growth. 27. K. Johnson- Thought about, given the injuries, moving him out of the top 30. Still, he's got a complete skill set. Another player that I’m higher on than the consensus. 28. K. Allen- Solid fantasy WR #2. We pretty much know what he is, and that is a solid, but not elite fantasy WR. Rivers back? 29. G. Kittle- Still an absolute beast. Slow start this year should not obscure ability. 9ers have a nice surrounding cast, limiting upside. 30. OBJ- Has to make this list based on talent alone. landing spot? The coaching can’t be worse than it was last year. Mayfield will be better and Landry is meant to be a wr #2. I’ll happily buy on him in the third round. 31. M. Sanders- I love the talent. Flashed explosion and versatility. Excellent fit in the Eagles offense and will benefit from a more healthy team next year. He’s only this low because the Eagles backfield again looks like a timeshare. 32.C. Carson- Love the physical, aggressive style of play. Tough and gritty but I’m afraid of the injuries. Simply absorbs (and gives out) too much contact to complete the year. Is having hip surgery soon. I’d let someone else take the risk. 33. AJ Brown- Flashed explosion and ability. Excellent YAC. Team is well balanced. Think Brown has all the makings of a high end WR2 for fantasy purposes. 34. M. Mack- Another player I like but don’t love. Not convinced he can handle a full workload. Has generally been good when he plays but not a true 3 down back. 35. S. Diggs- Some volatility built in and Theilen’s presumed return to full health complicates his upside. He’s a solid WR2 with spike week outcomes interspersed. 36. C. Sutton- He came on strong this year and looks to be a player for years. If Lock is the real deal, Sutton could be special. He’s only this low because Lock has yet to deliver for an entire year. 37. L. Bell- Gets here only based on volume. Due for some TD regression. Don’t love him or the team but will get the touches to justify a 3rd or 4th round selection in keeper formats. In dynasty, a clear sell. 38. T. Gurley- See L. Bell. What he has over Bell in terms of situation and surrounding talent is undone by huge injury concerns. 39. A. Ekeler- Moves was up if Gordon leaves. Has stand alone value worthy of 4th round consideration even if Gordon stays. 40. A. Robinson- Was quietly very good from a fantasy perspective despite erratic QB play.
  11. I’m going to keep updating and building out this list as the weeks go on.
  12. If he stays, than I likely move him into the top 10.
  13. In my update today, he's at #13. Want to see where he signs.
  14. You could be right. I'm as concerned with volume as accuracy. Jameis would just sling it, completely unafraid. If they next QB is more cautious, TB might be a better football team but it limits fantasy numbers.