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Good Posting Judge

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Good Posting Judge last won the day on June 14 2019

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  1. I've been seriously handicapping boxing this year, and I run into the same thing, although boxing is by no means as tough to beat as the NFL so there are some pretty bad prices (Bet365 getting a new trader has tightened the opening price considerably, unfortunately). There are McGregor/Mayweather-eqsue differences pretty regularly where the market's off 15-20% from where I make it. Usually i try and take a step back and ask myself to try and figure out what I don't know. What are unknown variables, what might I be missing, etc. It's also a sport where there's a massive amount of uncertainty (even more than a pre-seasonless NFL), so I will usually temper my number, giving credit to the line and the fact that the linemaker (and other good bettors) are seeing a largely-subjective market differently than I am. Occasionally i just whiff badly. Most times I'm on the right side, but not by as much as I thought, and what I project to be an easy win turns into a draw (sometimes with a last-second knockdown ://///) or a win I have to sweat. Just constantly tell yourself that you're a moron at worst, half-a-moron at best. Works for me.
  2. ESPN just signed deals with Draftkings and Caesars so yeah should be fun.
  3. If all the lines have moved and are generally in the same spot, i dunno about that. By Saturday a lot of big groups have weighed in, so the line's pretty sharp. It may get jiggled a bit on Sunday with injury news or whomever crushed the Rams today and bet them down to a pk. But if you can find a +3.5 somewhere at a square book like MyBookie or Bovada when Pinny and Cris have 3 flat, that's a solid bet in the long-run. One of the biggest gamblers in the US has built a pretty big syndicate doing just this for years and years, over and over and over.
  4. Got u fam: https://plusevanalytics.wordpress.com/2020/06/18/ev-in-the-supercontest/
  5. Everyone guards their own sauce pretty closely. Football is especially valuable because even though a double-digit ROI probably isn't realistic long-term, limits are crazy high and your outs are practically limitless. I would say if you're NFL. find someone who is independent and specializes in CFB. Or find someone who models baseball or hoops and share ideas w them, even though they're different sports. Most syndicates are an originator or a group of originators who specialize in different sports, and then someone who gathers PPH accounts to bet on/burn through. I (try) to beat MLB openers, for a few years now (up big this year, basically even the last two), and it's like level 1. Actually, level 1 is props/small sports, level 2 is openers. Level 3 is beating un-circled games once the limits are raised. If you're maxing openers, you're nowhere close in terms of volume to what the biggest guys are doing. And because a lot of price discovery has happened, it's a lot tougher.
  6. 1) there are real, legit pro gamblers/+ev semi-pro gamblers on Twitter. they're not TOO hard to find, but they also aren't putting 30 emojis and 3 gifs after every 5u play. 2) if you haven't built a mathematical model to beat NFL sides/totals, you're pretty much dead in the water long-term. It's too big of a market, the opening line's too good already, and then the people that move that line are even better still. The days of just having a good eye and a reasonably good understanding of statistics and being able to eyeball a line are long-gone.
  7. I think the Warriors should take Toppin. Wiseman's going to really cramp their spacing if you play him together with Green, and he's going to be targeted on PNR incessantly. Toppin can shoot, run PNR, and score inside on smaller defenders. Edwards leaves them pretty small, Ball's shooting has a ways to go and his dad's a pain in the ###, and probably needs the ball in his hands more. Toppin makes a lot of sense. Or maybe the Israeli cat, but I don't know much about him.
  8. Ruh roh: https://twitter.com/asoukuptx/status/1292894731878506497?s=20