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Everything posted by rschroeder1

  1. As far as I can tell, compensatory picks do apply for a declined option year ONLY for first-round draft picks. Not trying to argue, haha.
  2. It gets complicated, but I'm pretty sure that Floyd does count toward the compensatory pick pool because he is now a UFA. He hasn't been cut, they just declined the fifth year option. The Floyd release is nullified by the Quinn signing, but that actually is helping the Bears here. Without the Floyd release, the Quinn signing would negate another free agent release. So by releasing Floyd and adding Quinn (both former first round picks), the Bears should theoretically be in the about the same situation compensatory pick wise as when they started. With the caveat that no one knows what the formula really is.
  3. If I understand correctly, Leonard Floyd adds to the Bears' potential compensatory pick pool for the 2021 draft. While he obviously didn't pan out to be the pass rusher of the future, the model of drafting players and turning them into compensatory picks is not something that is that crazy. I think we need to see the structure of Quinn's contract to fully process what this means. I'll admit I have cap concerns.
  4. I went into the free agency period hoping the Bears wouldn't blow stupid money on Austin Hooper. I forgot there are other kinds of stupid. With the new CBA, I'll admit I don't fully understand the cap implications at this point, but this seems like a lot of money, even if it's just $9 million, for a team with cap limitations. Are the QB rumors real, because I don't see how this is all going to jigsaw together cap-wise. Edit: seeing now that Graham was cut by the Packers, so this does help with gaining a compensatory pick, especially if Leonard Floyd is let go. I will be curious to see what Delanie Walker gets, as he is also a cut player and wouldn't harm the compensatory formula.
  5. While I'm not a Chargers fan, for some reason I always seem to have an inordinate number of Chargers on my fantasy teams, and I've always appreciated your insights over the years. I was wondering if you could elaborate on your point on the new QB reducing Ekeler's numbers. Do you see this as a product of any other QB not throwing to RBs as much as Rivers has, or just a general downgrade for the offense itself? I generally think Ekeler probably hit his max fantasy value last year, in particular because he scored an unsustainable number of long touchdowns. Beyond this, I'm not sure where I fall on him for 2020. He could be a check down god with a struggling offense, but I'm not sure if that will translate to the same level of receiving yards.
  6. Slightly off topic, but I am annually vexed as to how the NFL has determined that Chicago is a "secondary market" for the Colts. Please, no more force feeding us Colts games on CBS... And no one would ever consider Bears-Colts a rivalry, no matter how hard you try. Much like that vaunted Titans-Jags matchup.
  7. Cohen is on the last year of his rookie contract... What's the point in cutting him? He could be worth a compensatory pick after this season.
  8. No play-calling, no one really knows for sure if Mitch will be the QB next year, and a coach and general manager who are both if not on the hot seat, have their seats getting warmer. Not exactly the most desirable spot. It is what it is for now.
  9. I don't have to select keepers until August 2020, but I have found it's helpful to understand people's perspectives about players now before the churn of the draft and the offseason. Helps me to identify my own biases and what I think might be overvaluing/undervaluing. Your input is greatly appreciated! League info: 12 teams, 17 roster spots, snake draft, my 2020 draft position = 10th. Positions: QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, RB/WR/TE Keeper info: up to 4 keepers per team. Keeper value = 1 draft round higher than the previous year. You can keep a player through their value as a first-round pick. 2019 Final Roster (2020 Draft Round Value) Keenan Allen (1) Austin Ekeler (2) Matt Brieda (4) Matt Ryan (5) Marlon Mack (6) (2019 keeper) Cooper Kupp (7) (2019 keeper) Devin Singletary (8) Justin Jackson (8) Devonta Freeman (10) (2019 keeper) Ito Smith (11) Chase Edmonds (12) Dallas Goedert (12) Ryquell Armstead (12) Darren Waller (13) Juju Smith-Schuster (16) (2019 keeper) JJ Arcega-Whiteside (16) Reggie Bonnafon (17) My initial plan: Juju is obvious. If Singletary enters the 2020 season as the lead back, he's tremendous value at 8, with RB at an absolute premium due to keepers. I still like Kupp, despite his declining usage down the stretch. Don't know what to do about Waller - OAK is bound to improve at WR, and the QB situation is up in the air. Also not sure about Mack. At the end of the season, the numbers are there, but his absolute lack of involvement in the passing game makes me wonder if I'm using a keeper spot for too low of a ceiling. Is Ekeler worth it as a 2nd round pick if he's the guy at LAC? There's value in the guarantee I have him, but his round value would probably be low 1st/high 2nd next year anyways, i.e. I'm not gaining keeper round value on him.
  10. It's a fair point. However, it would appear that Mitch is marginally better on the move. Gameplanning along those lines was sporadic at best.
  11. Could not agree with this more. Mitch sucks, no doubt. But 2019 also revealed Nagy's unwillingness to do much of anything to cater to what Mitch might do well. How many QBs exist who can run Nagy's scheme? What are the odds the Bears find a Mahomes to do so? It's the Bears, so zero, but beyond that, if the Bears get a Cam or a Rivers, is Nagy going to design an offense to fit their skills or force feed his genius vision?
  12. No point in trying to defend Mitch, but I have just as many questions of Nagy after last night. No doubt, as usual he schemed receivers open that Mitch missed. Nagy gets credit for that. But I found the Bears' approach on 3rd downs to be confounding. It was no secret the Chiefs were going to blitz, because they did so virtually every third down. The Bears' response was to either 1) throw a wide receiver screen on 3rd and long plays, which has a low percentage chance of success or 2) say "F*** it" and let the blitz come without any sort of max protect scheme. If I recall correctly, the best protection scheme the Bears offered was having a back (Tarik Cohen) on Trubisky's hip at the snap. No extra linemen, no tight end to block. In the face of abject schematic failure, the Bears just lined up and tried it again. And again. And again. Until Nagy shows the ability to see what is taking place on the field and respond to it, he's lost me. Unless your team is 16-0, there is no reason why the team you follow should not be running basic NFL schemes, like a max protect scheme when the line is struggling.
  13. One factor to keep in mind - with Drake as a UFA, the Cardinals may stand to gain a compensatory pick if they let him go. He was a third-round pick originally, so while the compensatory system is endlessly complicated, the Cardinals could gain a draft pick, depending on how the rest of their free agency pans out.
  14. With the benefit of getting to watch him week in and week out, what do you make of the formation usage of Singletary, in regard to his receiving potential? My main TV exposure to him has been the Cowboys game, the Steelers game and the second half of the Ravens game (too busy watching the Bears 😔). I can't find any accurate counts of this, but anecdotally I've seen him lined up as a wide receiver and in the slot numerous times. I believe I've only seen him get one target from these plays (the screen pass on Sunday in the 2nd half that was called back for a penalty), but again, this is not any reasonable statistical count. The formation use makes me wonder if they see potential for him in the passing game. What's your take on this?
  15. I would add in that the skill the 3-cone is meant to test is something that Singletary, to the naked eye, seems to do well on the field of play - rapid cuts and changes of direction to evade defenders.
  16. My answer is heavily league-dependant: 12 teams, 4 keepers per team, so a chance to keep a starting RB is a great opportunity. I can keep Singletary as an 8th round pick out of 17 next year, so there's good value there to do so. Of course, we'll need to see how the offseason churn pans out. Echoing some of the comments above, I've seen enough elusiveness from him to think he can be a starting NFL running back. Despite his small frame, he does seem to be able to break a few tackles and most importantly fall forward. His passing game numbers are a little mystifying to me. He's lined up a fair amount at receiver or in the slot but hasn't really carved out a niche there yet. I'm curious if this is a matter of not putting too much on his plate, as if he doesn't have the skill set, the formation use strikes me as a bit odd. I would be hopeful for RB2 numbers next year, based on my opportunity to keep him.
  17. That's true, but Singletary was back out there pretty quick. I could be totally off base here, just how I saw it.
  18. As a transparency note, I do own Singletary in a heavy keeper league. I actually wasn't too fazed by the fumbles, but would be curious to know if others share this perspective. I watched Singletary pretty closely last night as I have to make a keeper decision on him next year and haven't had a chance to see him play an entire game. On the first fumble, my perspective was the result was more of a great play by Watt than a negative play by Singletary. Singletary had the ball wrapped with his fingers and notched in his elbow, and fairly close to his body. Watt's strip attempt from behind was perhaps unexpected. I imagine there aren't many RBs in the NFL that aren't going to get stripped on a play like that. On the second fumble, if you watch the replay, Singletary's leg is twisted in an extremely awkward direction. Despite the strip attempt, he held on to the ball until the point where his leg was bent to the max out of a shape that any leg should be bent. Frankly, I'm amazed he didn't get hurt on the play. The fact that the coaching staff kept trotting him out there also indicated to me they didn't see the fumbles as a Singletary-specific problem, per se. Would be curious to know if others share this perspective. Certainly, his four fumbles on the year have to be taken into account.
  19. His cap hit is $14,250,000 for 2020, and he can be cut before the 2021 season with only $3 million dead cap. Is that cap figure for 2020 reasonable to swing in a trade? I have a tough time figuring these things out. I know the cap is projected to go up by $10-15 million or so.
  20. I have some not-so-pleasant matchups this week! The options are: Le'veon Bell at BAL Devonta Freeman at SF Marlon Mack at NO Juju Smith-Schuster vs. BUF Dallas Goedert at WAS Free Agent Options Russell Gate (WR) at SF JJ Arcega-Whiteside (WR) at WAS I'm leaning toward Freeman. While the matchup stinks, his involvement in the passing game since Ito Smith has been out makes me think he has a fairly safe floor, though a pretty low chance at a TD. Arcega-Whiteside intrigues me, but the Eagles offense seems stuck in neutral. One note: my opponent is starting Julio Jones, for what it's worth. Appreciate anyone's insight!
  21. This weekend in a quarterfinal game, I broke a 9-game playoff losing streak across all leagues. Part of the game...embrace it!
  22. Hard to see this being a trend. at ARIZ: 72% vs. BAL: 98% vs. CHI: 98% at PIT: 92% at CIN: 97% at ATL: 62% I'm not going to go any further. Up until this game, he played virtually the entire game in games that were competitive. Hard to see this being anything but a statistical aberration.
  23. I don't doubt the talent of Ekeler, but a new QB seems like it could change things. Rivers is so immobile that the check-down seems to come quicker for him than other QBs.
  24. There are some leagues that are hybrid dynasty/redraft, with enough keepers to make the dynasty side relevant but with roster crunches to make dropping a Hockensen or a JJAW a real decision. I know this thread is titled "Dynasty," but keeper league players like myself still use dynasty resources.
  25. Derrick Henry is a UFA after this season for Tennessee. Is there any RB on the current roster that might be a dark horse if Henry leaves in free agency? I know they probably will draft an RB in the end.