mcintyre1
Footballguy
So now Anthony Armstrong, Chris Cooley, Fred Davis, and Leonard Hankerson are worthless?
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Dynasty Rankings (11 Viewers)
- Thread starter Fear & Loathing
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thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Hankerson wasn't there last year.
Armstrong is a below average NFL WR3. Cooley is a quality NFL TE1. Davis had 21 catches.
mcintyre1
Footballguy
Well, obviously. Why are we talking about last year?Hankerson wasn't there last year.
I disagree that Armstrong is a below average NFL WR3. He put up great numbers in 11 games with crap at QB. In a more talented offense with a better QB, he's at least a solid WR2 type across from a possession receiver. But whatever, that's not a productive argument. "Davis had 21 catches" -- alright, but what does that have to do with his talent? If Cooley were out/gone, he's be a serviceable NFL TE1 as well.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
The original debate was Julio vs. Green. The argument was you don't need a top QB to put up top WR yardage/ppr/TD. Two names that rose to the top in that discussion were Moss and Marshall. I think Moss would not be in this discussion if there were better WRs around him. While I don't value Moss' talent much anymore and think he's been on the decline for over 2 years, I think it applies more generally. I also think Roddy wouldn't be #1 across the board if it weren't for the fact that the WR2 was less than terrible and Gonzalez took a step backward. I think Bowe benefited from a lack of talent around him. Stevie Johnson as well.Well, obviously. Why are we talking about last year?Hankerson wasn't there last year.
munchkin
Footballguy
I saw your question posted for the Audible chat tonight and have been wondering the same thing about Solder over Costanzo and Ridley in the 3rd over a plethora of more highly rated backs. I am sure folks who follow other teams have similar questions regarding players drafted for their teams.To me Ridley looks pretty good on tape but I am not an experienced evaluator of talent and most of what I saw appeared to be LSU matched up against lower level teams and they are, after all, highlight reels. But there is a huge difference in the eyes of BB (and likely most other coaches) in expending a third round pick on a player (Ridley) and grooming an undrafted player (BJGE)in regards to expectations on filling a role. Now that doesn't necessarily mean that the player of lesser regard can't fill the role but certainly the expectations are higher.
Ridley will be given every opportunity to win the job but BJGE will not give it up easily which is great for the team. If we see Ridley on the field in lieu of BJGE it is because he has more to offer; and Green-Ellis had a pretty good 2010 season.
corpcow
Footballguy
In other words, yesHankerson wasn't there last year.
I am hoping to get some input (either from actual usage or from possible usage) on catch percentage as a measurable metric. How do some of you incorporate this into your WR/TE rankings (if at all) and is the right methodology a seperate category or a "seperator" within tiers? Also, out of curiousity since I enjoyed the brief discussion on Collie a couple pages back, he had an 82% catch rate last year (unless I have bad information). I don't see how he can sustain that but, more importantly, is that more a by-product of limited targets or of his role in the offense. Looking at the percentage leaders last year, it appears that they are slot types with limited targets; I can't personally increase the players value on this information but maybe I am being too narrow minded. Thanks for the thoughts.
Dez
Footballguy
Anyone ?
Couch Potato
Footballguy
They get posted as Rotoworld articles these days. Nothing new yet. I suspect they may be next after he and Evan Silva finish their series of post-draft free agents and trade candidates. Chris did the RBs a few days ago, Evan the WRs since then, and Chris will do the TEs next to wrap that up. My guess is his post-draft dynasty rankings will roll out one position at a time sometime after Memorial Day.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
I think it's close to useless, unless you're comparing two players playing with the same quarterback and occupying the same role within an offense.
Couch Potato
Footballguy
Agree, close to useless. In my 30 years of FF I've looked at just about everything I could to try to gain an edge and have revisited catch % a few times. And I've read a few articles on the subject. Same general conclusion. The problem is that it's just not useful to isolate catches/targets when it's dependent on so many variables that may not really reflect the WR's ability. How accurate is the QB? Is this a WR who is being single covered or double covered? Is this a QB who has other good options and finds the open man or does he force the ball to his playmakers? Are the routes primarily short, high percentage routes (e.g., Collie) or deep low percentage routes? Despite a low catch %, does the WR give you a big payoff with yardage after catch making him highly targetable anyway (a la T.O. in his heyday). and so forth.Trying to use this stat to compare WRs, or determine the effectiveness of a particular WR, is just not worthwhile. So much would be apples and oranges that it's not worth spending time on it. That's been my conclusion each time I've tried to look at it anyway.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Anyone know what happened to SSOG? Don't think he's been here for quite awhile and his whizzbang DynastyRankings.net hasn't been updated in about six months.
I think i remember him saying back in December that he would be busy and wouldnt be around much for a few weeks. He has a tendecy to disappear from here for large periods of time....i think he is seeing another board.
squistion
Footballguy
Actually he said that in October and then was absent two full months until December, where he returned for a few days, but then vanished again. His site has not been updated since 12-10. My theory is that he has gone into the witness protection program.I think i remember him saying back in December that he would be busy and wouldnt be around much for a few weeks. He has a tendecy to disappear from here for large periods of time....i think he is seeing another board.
Dez
Footballguy
Well for me that is too late we already had our draft.Draft starts 2 weeks after the NFL draft.
Thanks for the thoughts. That's where I was; glad to know I wasn't alone.
Instinctive
Footballguy
I think it's useful when you take those type of factors into account. Look at the QB's accuracy, and see if a guy catches way more or less than that. Look at the type of routes he runs. Look at his YAC.
In context, I think it is relatively useful, when it's really high or low, to know. It can clue you in to things like:
Ohh...he may have stone hands.
or
Wow, he catches everything.
You shouldn't be making judgment calls on it. You shouldn't be using it to base your rankings off of. But you should file it away as just another useful little piece of information that makes up a larger picture.
In context, I think it is relatively useful, when it's really high or low, to know. It can clue you in to things like:
Ohh...he may have stone hands.
or
Wow, he catches everything.
You shouldn't be making judgment calls on it. You shouldn't be using it to base your rankings off of. But you should file it away as just another useful little piece of information that makes up a larger picture.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
How do you guys have Romo and Ryan ranked? I'm a huge Ryan fan, and the addition of Julio only solidifies that. Romo I think will have a HUGE bounce-back year if he stays healthy, but he's also 5 years older.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Bump.
OrangeCurtain
Footballguy
Also a huge Ryan fan, he's my starter in our dynasty league. Interestingly I have the 1.01 and 1.03 in this year's draft, and a guy in my division has the 1.02. I think he's going to take Jones to counter Ryan if I take Ingram with the 1.01, but if I take Jones with the first pick he'll take Ingram and I'll end up with Green and Jones. Helluva decision for me (starters are MJD, Mendy, A. Bradshaw, Austin, and Steve Johnson with Bradshaw as a flex).
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
With your lineup, I think I'd be fine with taking Jones and Green, if he snags Ingram at 1.2. Anyways, Ryan is about to be my starter as well, and I'm very excited about his potential this year in that offense. With the drafting of Jones and Rodgers, they're obviously putting the offense more in his hands, and moving away from an aging Turner.Also a huge Ryan fan, he's my starter in our dynasty league. Interestingly I have the 1.01 and 1.03 in this year's draft, and a guy in my division has the 1.02. I think he's going to take Jones to counter Ryan if I take Ingram with the 1.01, but if I take Jones with the first pick he'll take Ingram and I'll end up with Green and Jones. Helluva decision for me (starters are MJD, Mendy, A. Bradshaw, Austin, and Steve Johnson with Bradshaw as a flex).
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OrangeCurtain
Footballguy
Might still be a year or two away from Turner's decline since he doesn't have a lot of mileage for his age, but I agree they're definitely shifting to a NO/GB/NE style pass heavy offense. Our dynasty league expanded from 10 to 12 teams this offseason so I had to decide between protecting Ryan or Freeman, and this was before the NFL draft, so when I saw ATL move up and grab Julio I felt a lot better about my choice.With your lineup, I think I'd be fine with taking Jones and Green, if he snags Ingram at 1.2. Anyways, Ryan is about to be my starter as well, and I'm very excited about his potential this year in that offense. With the drafting of Jones and Rodgers, they're obviously putting the offense more in his hands, and moving away from an aging Turner.Also a huge Ryan fan, he's my starter in our dynasty league. Interestingly I have the 1.01 and 1.03 in this year's draft, and a guy in my division has the 1.02. I think he's going to take Jones to counter Ryan if I take Ingram with the 1.01, but if I take Jones with the first pick he'll take Ingram and I'll end up with Green and Jones. Helluva decision for me (starters are MJD, Mendy, A. Bradshaw, Austin, and Steve Johnson with Bradshaw as a flex).
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Very true, and like any competent organization, they're preparing for the future now by drafting Quizz and Julio.When this deal goes through and I get Ryan, I'll hope that Turner ages fast for both our sakes haha.
Ron_Mexico
I Love Doggies
Not sure if the organization is all that competent.They gave away 6 picks, two of them first rounders to get Jones.The Falcons have holes on defense, too many to be making deals like this, imo.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Well, until that trade you could definitely label the Falcons of the last few years as a competent organization...and teams do crazy things when they think they're on the verge of competing for a Super Bowl.
corpcow
Footballguy
I'm amazed that trade would label them "incompetent". I think it was a good trade. THose 1sts are late 1sts, and they moved up to a top 5 pick to grab, as Conn said, what they thought was a missing piece for a championship. I think they have a lot fewer holes than you're making it out to be. They were a middle of the road defense in terms of yards per game, but top 5 in PPG. And they're got a number of young leaders on defense - Moore, DeCoud, Lofton, Weatherspoon. Sidbury is a popular breakout DE candidate givne his physical tools, and it's a position that usually takes some time. They also added Dunta last offseason and, who knows what they'll do once it opens this year.I'm not saying they're right or wrong - time will tell - but making a decisive move up to grab a guy like Julio is exactly the way I run my fantasy teams (and many other championships are built). Get the pieces in place, and then "overpay" for that piece that puts you over the top.
Donsmith753
Footballguy
Exactly, if they believe this was the missing piece and are correct Its almost a second they're giving.'corpcow said:
ThePittbully
Footballguy
Has anyone done any trades this offseason involving Jerome Simpson? I've gotten quite a few offers for him but I'm having a hard time defining his value, especially with the addition of Green and the QB change
Dez
Footballguy
Dez
Footballguy
It's funny how things turn out the guy who had that stud team ended up with the #1 pick (too bad I figured him to win the title so I traded it before the draft ended...ouch). I also ended up trading for my own 1st back because I got worried I would stink but I ended up making the playoffs and finishing 4th overall so my pick ended up #9 anyway.Wallace trade for a 1st ended up being a great deal he is a stud now.I started the year like 8-1 too so much for a slow start...I did end up losing V-Jax in the deal to get my 1st back...traded V-Jax away for Colston and a swap of 1sts.My team is Dragons listed in my sig for this season.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
His value tanked after the drafting of AJ Green. IMO he is a hold, should of moved him before the draft to max his value. Now you have to wait until he shows more on the field
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
In my recent hometown dynasty draft some one took Plaxico Burress (FA) in our rookie draft with the 1.9 pick and told me he felt that was a "steal". I didn't want to burst his bubble, but imo it was a "stretch" type pick. Sure he was a second-third tier type WR and very productive prior to his transgression, but the guy will be 34 years old this season and has been out of the league for two years. In fact my buddy who got wind of the 1.9 picker's intentions was considering taking Burress at 1.6 to beat him to the punch and I kind of talked him out of it. I did tell him by no means am I saying that my advice is correct and to do what he wants - he ended up taking Jonathan Baldwin instead.
Am I way off base here or does anyone think Burress is worth a first round pick in a dynasty rookie FA draft?
Am I way off base here or does anyone think Burress is worth a first round pick in a dynasty rookie FA draft?
jacobo_moses
Footballguy
"Am I way off base here or does anyone think Burress is worth a first round pick in a dynasty rookie FA draft? "
NO you are right on here. Burress if returns to pre jail time form can maybe a solid WR2/WR3 depending on situation. I mean lets face it that's a lot of ifs. I'd say Burress is maybe worth a low end 2nd Rnd Pick Rookie pick at the most. Because he is a red zone target and his body hasn't taken a pounding for 2 yrs. So while he is 34 its not quite the same.
So to say you are off base here. I would have to say NO
You are right on the money 
NO you are right on here. Burress if returns to pre jail time form can maybe a solid WR2/WR3 depending on situation. I mean lets face it that's a lot of ifs. I'd say Burress is maybe worth a low end 2nd Rnd Pick Rookie pick at the most. Because he is a red zone target and his body hasn't taken a pounding for 2 yrs. So while he is 34 its not quite the same.
So to say you are off base here. I would have to say NO
You are right on the money
munchkin
Footballguy
That be me; yep, that trade didn't work out so well. I took a shot at Jones; had he at least turned out to be the heir to Driver it wouldn't look quite as bad. The injury to Hardesty certainly gave Hillis the opportunity to excel and he didn't disappoint (well maybe I was a little disappointed).
Dez
Footballguy
Are you still taking Rodgers 1.01 this year ?I just seen a new start up $750 where Rodgers went 2.07 and Brees at 6.01 and you were taking Rodgers at 1.01 last year ? Brees in the 1st ? Ouch.
Dez
Footballguy
Looks like that 3rd string RB from Houston is now the #1 overall dynasty pick in a lot of new dynasty start ups.
Wow, again? How many things did you skip over that I got right to get to that? Where are your predictions from last season? Dont answer, for my sake anyway, I wont be able to see it.
Dez
Footballguy
Wow you are so screwed
Dez
Footballguy
I myself did not come around on Foster soon enough either though I did feel he had every bit of a chance to start as the other 2.I did 2 dynasty start ups last year I passed on Foster in July (pre Tate injury) in round 9, and passed on Foster in round 6 in August (post Tate injury). I think me passing on Foster in August with Tate hurt was a huge mistake I was hoping he would fall to my 7th round pick I guess sometimes greed gets the best of us.
Last year was the 1st time I did a dynasty start up since 1997 so I never really cared much for ranking players as it never really mattered much until last year. I have every set of rookie only rankings I have done since 1997 so I would be happy to share those with you but I don't have a "dynasty" rankings list though since I did 2 drafts last year I can pretty much tell you what I was thinking on any player during last season if you want to know about a specific player.
Instinctive
Footballguy
Dude, you have got to do something different with your sig. It's a huge PITA trying to read the last few posts with a four inch rainbow separating them all.
ItsOnlytheRiver
Footballguy
Cherry picking year old posts + ridiculous signature = ignore
Please stop clogging this great thread up with that stuff.
Please stop clogging this great thread up with that stuff.
squistion
Footballguy
So, do you think it increased or decreased White's value? My first thought was that it would help because he would see less coverage. Apparently F&L sees it as a big hit to White putting it number 2 on his list of draft losers. From his Rotoworld article, here: http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/38028/59/?pg=12. Roddy White - It's no secret that wide receiver fantasy success directly corresponds to consistently high target numbers, but White is an extreme case. A true volume receiver, White has racked up 18 more targets than any other NFL wideout over the past two seasons. While he earns plenty of credit for an ability to get open against stacked coverage, White has been force-fed the ball with no semblance of a threat on the opposite side. His counting stats have gone up, but only at the expense of his per-play effectiveness. Enter Julio Jones, hand-picked to draw attention -- and valuable targets -- away from Matt Ryan's go-to receiver. White is entering his age-30 season, which means the downslope is coming soon for a player who isn't quite Hall of Fame caliber. Within 2-3 years, I expect Jones to be outproducing White as Ryan's top target.
Ultimately, I think the biggest winner will probably be the RB in that offense.
I could see the addition of Jones helping White, but as a White owner I'm afraid it will hurt more than help. White is a great WR no doubt, but part of what makes him a top 5 fantasy WR is the amount of targets he gets. When all is said and done though, I dont expect a drastic change either way. A few less targets but a little more room to work.Oh, and I think the biggest winner is easily Matt Ryan....especially with Turner another year older. The Falcons didn't burn all those picks on a WR to continue to be a run first team.'Jail said:
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ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Exactly the rationale that led me to trade for Ryan. I'm reasonably certain I'll be rolling with him as my starter, too. And I'm shockingly unfazed by that, which surprises me, since I traded Rivers not too long ago and was very worried when my best QB was Fitzpatrick.
But I'm very comfortable with Ryan, now that Ive acquired him. He's ready to take that next step. Many say that Flacco is underrated and is a similar talent to Ryan. I don't beleive that. But perhaps more importantly, the Ravens haven't done as well a job as the Falcons have in surrounding their young franchise QB with talent conducive to huge fantasy numbers. Rice will be the star of that show for a few more years; honestly, the best thing that could happen to Flacco owners would be for that defense to finally degrade once Lewis and Reed leave/age, because they'll be less conservative on offense.
Back to Ryan, I think that the huge investment in Jones, and the drafting of Quizz Rodgers, makes the future plans clear for all to see: Ryan is the centerpiece of that offense now.
But I'm very comfortable with Ryan, now that Ive acquired him. He's ready to take that next step. Many say that Flacco is underrated and is a similar talent to Ryan. I don't beleive that. But perhaps more importantly, the Ravens haven't done as well a job as the Falcons have in surrounding their young franchise QB with talent conducive to huge fantasy numbers. Rice will be the star of that show for a few more years; honestly, the best thing that could happen to Flacco owners would be for that defense to finally degrade once Lewis and Reed leave/age, because they'll be less conservative on offense.
Back to Ryan, I think that the huge investment in Jones, and the drafting of Quizz Rodgers, makes the future plans clear for all to see: Ryan is the centerpiece of that offense now.
The Real Yoda
Footballguy
http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/38169/59/draft-fallout-dynasty-winners?pg=1
soooo, pretty much all the QB's in the league gained? That's all we can get for dynasty winners? zzzzzzzzzzzz
soooo, pretty much all the QB's in the league gained? That's all we can get for dynasty winners? zzzzzzzzzzzz
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Glad this topic was pinned. Hopefully it kickstarts it back up again.
In his intro he goes into how FA will turn situations around quickly. QB situations are more stable. He didn't choose QBs on teams expected to dabble in FA like Henne or Skelton. He does point out in the footnote that SJax and Blount are pretty big winners. People are assuming Moreno is a loser even though Denver didn't pick a RB. The "draft fallout" is a winner, but he could still find himself a 3rd down back in a couple weeks.'The Real Yoda said:
