General Dynasty Strategy: "Evergreen" (1 Viewer)

[eighsse2]

So this has pretty much always been my strategy in my dynasty league, without necessarily putting it into words. I think it's a relatively unpopular idea. Basically, the idea is to always be competitive. No rebuilds (that's the plan, at least). You may or may not ever have a "championship team" with superstars across the board. But you don't have to have a "championship team" to win a championship here and there (especially in our league where 7/12 teams make the playoffs).

(Disorganized ramble warning) Basically you try to maximize your team's dynasty value all the time. Hopefully sell out of any RB before he hits the cliff. Keep your top value guys. Trade your depth and middling guys for draft picks any time you can, and grab guys off waivers to fill the holes. Never be afraid to make a time investment as long as it's a good investment. Two mid seconds this year for a random first next year? Do something like that any day of the week, if you ever can. The cream rises to the top of the roster and stays there. The rest gets churned, for picks and free agents. You're bound to hit on some percentage of those rookies and free agents. You make sure to keep enough quality guys to field a lineup, with at least one decent backup at each position.

Of course, having a "great dynasty team" all the time is completely worthless if it's never a "good now team". But with enough luck, you'll always have at minimum a decent "now team", and sometimes a good or great one.

As stated above, in our league 7/12 make the playoffs. I think it's usually 4 to 6 in a 12-team league, in which case this might be significantly less manageable.

Thoughts?

 

[rockaction]

Interesting. I think the goal of having the best roster year in and year out is more debatable than one might think at first glance (one could argue for the cycle of dynasty excellence which would be to win then rebuild), but I also I think that having the best roster year in and year out is most peoples' goal depending on how you view the playoffs. How you view the playoffs determines your roster construction. Are the playoffs a stud-laden thing where the cream rises and great players lead you to a championship, or is it a "chip and a chair," where it's all about luck, and regardless of the quality of your roster the probabilities of each playoff team winning the championship are not too disparate? You seem to hold a "chip and chair" philosophy where it's mostly about luck.

Personally, I think it's somewhere in between the two. So that's a premise that I think needs refinement in what you posit, and it alters your conclusion a bit about "evergreen" teams. You seem to be saying that studs are expendable so long as the asset is being used in a way that is getting some return that keeps one competitive and in the playoffs. I'm sure many people could point you to examples where the great players carried the day in the playoffs and that's why they won a championship. I'm also sure people could point to luck. You probably need both, and it's somewhere in between the extremes that the right cocktail is poured.

So then, "evergreening." In theory it sounds great, but in practice and reality it tends to be different. For instance, those aging stars? Nobody might want them and be willing to give anything of value for them. So you're faced with the decision to ride it out and take the points they provide or sell them at a steep discount. That's just one of the problems with the "evergreen" theory. Now, the point is to be one year early instead of too late with selling, but the way guys drop of a cliff or have a situation that changes, it's virtually impossible to be meticulous or consistent with being early in trading away a valuable member. So something to shoot for? Yes. Impossible to achieve a healthy equilibrium of value/points scored given all the vagaries of modern football? Also yes.

Maybe it's just me. My main league tends to be inactive as far as deals go, so that doesn't help things at all. Which is why it's crucial that you have very active owners in your league. That makes for more fun league, and more chance of "evergreening."

But yeah, I take what you're saying and think it needs readjustments or refinements. But to have the best roster every year, year in and year out -- and I think you're correct in saying that evergreening is generally the way to go -- is certainly why we (or I) play dynasty. The goal is to be the best team every year you participate, really. Unless of course, you argue for the cycle style of play, which as I pointed out before, encompasses a whole different set of assumptions about the playoffs and riding guys into the sunset than you're making.

In short, I guess I'm saying it depends.

 

[eighsse2]

Interesting. I think the goal of having the best roster year in and year out is more debatable than one might think at first glance (one could argue for the cycle of dynasty excellence which would be to win then rebuild), but I also I think that having the best roster year in and year out is most peoples' goal depending on how you view the playoffs. How you view the playoffs determines your roster construction. Are the playoffs a stud-laden thing where the cream rises and great players lead you to a championship, or is it a "chip and a chair," where it's all about luck and regardless of the quality of your roster, the probabilities of each playoff team winning the championship are not too disparate? You seem to hold a "chip and chair" philosophy where it's mostly about luck.

Personally, I think it's somewhere in between the two. So that's a premise that I think needs refinement in what you posit, and it alters your conclusion a bit about "evergreen" teams. You seem to be saying that studs are expendable so long as the asset is being used in a way that is getting some return that keeps one competitive and in the playoffs. I'm sure many people could point you to examples where the great players carried the day in the playoffs and that's why they won a championship. I'm also sure people could point to luck. You probably need both, and it's somewhere in between the extremes that the right cocktail is poured.

So then, "evergreening." In theory it sounds great, but in practice and reality it tends to be different. For instance, those aging stars? Nobody might want them and be willing to give anything of value for them. So you're faced with the decision to ride it out and take the points they provide or sell them at a steep discount. That's just one of the problems with the "evergreen" theory. Now, the point is to be one year early instead of too late with selling, but the way guys drop of a cliff or have a situation that changes, it's virtually impossible to be meticulous or consistent with being early in trading away a valuable member. So something to shoot for? Yes. Impossible to achieve a healthy equilibrium of value/points scored given all the vagaries of modern football? Also yes.

Maybe it's just me. My main league tends to be inactive as far as deals go, so that doesn't help things at all. Which is why it's crucial that you have very active owners in your league. That makes for more fun league, and more chance of "evergreening."

But yeah, I take what you're saying and think it needs readjustments or refinements. But to have the best roster every year, year in and year out -- and I think you're correct in saying that evergreening is generally the way to go -- is certainly why we (or I) play dynasty. The goal is to be the best team every year you participate, really. Unless of course, you argue for the cycle style of play, which as I pointed out before, encompasses a whole different set of assumptions about the playoffs and riding guys into the sunset than you're making.

In short, I guess I'm saying it depends.

To be clear, the goal is certainly to have studs, but to acquire them through trading and farming, and not hold them too long. I have 1QB, 2RB, and 3WR, (which in our league is a full starting lineup other than K+DST) all within or near the top 10 of their positions (redraft). RB is a little sketchy but Bijan and Etienne provide plenty of potential.

But the thing is, they're all young (high dynasty value). So, whereas a team with Rodgers, Henry, Ekeler, Hill, and Diggs, would be primed to destroy me this year (yet not guaranteed), that team is also staring at a cliff. My players are gone by the time they get to that point, and replaced with rookies or younger guys. Plenty of those replacements will be duds. But some (with luck here and there) will be the next studs.

Two important points you hit on:

Active traders is critical

Selling before the cliff is critical, and plenty of luck is involved

Oh and here is the unfortunate truth I have to drop: I have owned my dynasty team for 9 seasons. I won 1 championship so far, and that was my first year, with only inherited players.

HOWEVER ... I think it took me some years to get the hang of making good trades and drafting for value. I didn't have this concept in mind all along. I think I have done much better in the last 4 years, but I have had a lot of luck in building my roster. Then again, a lot of bad luck too, so maybe just average luck.

 

[rockaction]

I won 1 championship so far, and that was my first year, with only inherited players.

No need to detract from your championship. Mine came when I turned over almost the whole roster, but I'd kept Mahomes as an inherited QB. You don't stare at that gift horse's mouth, if you know what I man. I wasn't trading just to make it my own, though the pull is tempting in that regard.

Although I get what you're saying. You're proposing something you haven't been able to make totally work for you and the ship you won didn't have as much to do with your own roster construction.

To be clear, the goal is certainly to have studs, but to acquire them through trading and farming, and not hold them too long. I have 1QB, 2RB, and 3WR, (which in our league is a full starting lineup other than K+DST) all within or near the top 10 of their positions (redraft). RB is a little sketchy but Bijan and Etienne provide plenty of potential.

Ah, that clarifies it a bit. I thought you were selling studs at discounts or with too much time left because you were worried that they'd fall off that cliff. This sounds different that what I thought you meant. By the way, that's an awful lot of top ten players. You should very much be in contention. And, to get roster-specific, your two RBs you mention look great to me. I wouldn't worry about Bijan's inexperience and Etienne's Bigsby problem too much. I think that'll come out in the wash.

And that's about it. I think you've started a thread that encapsulates what almost all of us are trying to do. menobrown consistently talks about turning over his roster with respect to age. I'm the same way in theory, but this year for me is a little different because of my roster and how it is constructed. It's tough to watch points on the board disappear in the name of youth.

Overall, it sounds like you're doing this and doing it well. Learning how to trade is huge in dynasty, and it sounds like you're earning your stripes. I'm not that much of a veteran, so I'm still learning also. (I'm certainly not an expert nor authority on matters, but it just sounds like you're doing well with your philosophy.)

 

[eighsse2]

I won 1 championship so far, and that was my first year, with only inherited players.

No need to detract from your championship. Mine came when I turned over almost the whole roster, but I'd kept Mahomes as an inherited QB. You don't stare at that gift horse's mouth, if you know what I man. I wasn't trading just to make it my own, though the pull is tempting in that regard.

Although I get what you're saying. You're proposing something you haven't been able to make totally work for you and the ship you won didn't have as much to do with your own roster construction.

To be clear, the goal is certainly to have studs, but to acquire them through trading and farming, and not hold them too long. I have 1QB, 2RB, and 3WR, (which in our league is a full starting lineup other than K+DST) all within or near the top 10 of their positions (redraft). RB is a little sketchy but Bijan and Etienne provide plenty of potential.

Ah, that clarifies it a bit. I thought you were selling studs at discounts or with too much time left because you were worried that they'd fall off that cliff. This sounds different that what I thought you meant. By the way, that's an awful lot of top ten players. You should very much be in contention. And, to get roster-specific, your two RBs you mention look great to me. I wouldn't worry about Bijan's inexperience and Etienne's Bigsby problem too much. I think that'll come out in the wash.

And that's about it. I think you've started a thread that encapsulates what almost all of us are trying to do. menobrown consistently talks about turning over his roster with respect to age. I'm the same way in theory, but this year for me is a little different because of my roster and how it is constructed. It's tough to watch points on the board disappear in the name of youth.

Overall, it sounds like you're doing this and doing it well. Learning how to trade is huge in dynasty, and it sounds like you're earning your stripes. I'm not that much of a veteran, so I'm still learning also. (I'm certainly not an expert nor authority on matters, but it just sounds like you're doing well with your philosophy.)

Appreciate the encouragement hopefully it is starting to work, the coming years will be telling. But yeah I didn't really know if there were many people who try to work it this way. Seems like most go for the championship and then do a thing called "rebuilding" which is a word not found in my fantasy dictionary But my idea might be more common than I assumed.

 

[rockaction]

But my idea might be more common than I assumed.

I think it is, actually. A lot of people try to keep their rosters evergreen while some do it the other way. I think on this board the predominant assumption is the evergreen route and the exception is the rebuild when necessary (due to age or things not working out).

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I won 1 championship so far, and that was my first year, with only inherited players.

No need to detract from your championship. Mine came when I turned over almost the whole roster, but I'd kept Mahomes as an inherited QB. You don't stare at that gift horse's mouth, if you know what I man. I wasn't trading just to make it my own, though the pull is tempting in that regard.

Although I get what you're saying. You're proposing something you haven't been able to make totally work for you and the ship you won didn't have as much to do with your own roster construction.

To be clear, the goal is certainly to have studs, but to acquire them through trading and farming, and not hold them too long. I have 1QB, 2RB, and 3WR, (which in our league is a full starting lineup other than K+DST) all within or near the top 10 of their positions (redraft). RB is a little sketchy but Bijan and Etienne provide plenty of potential.

Ah, that clarifies it a bit. I thought you were selling studs at discounts or with too much time left because you were worried that they'd fall off that cliff. This sounds different that what I thought you meant. By the way, that's an awful lot of top ten players. You should very much be in contention. And, to get roster-specific, your two RBs you mention look great to me. I wouldn't worry about Bijan's inexperience and Etienne's Bigsby problem too much. I think that'll come out in the wash.

And that's about it. I think you've started a thread that encapsulates what almost all of us are trying to do. menobrown consistently talks about turning over his roster with respect to age. I'm the same way in theory, but this year for me is a little different because of my roster and how it is constructed. It's tough to watch points on the board disappear in the name of youth.

Overall, it sounds like you're doing this and doing it well. Learning how to trade is huge in dynasty, and it sounds like you're earning your stripes. I'm not that much of a veteran, so I'm still learning also. (I'm certainly not an expert nor authority on matters, but it just sounds like you're doing well with your philosophy.)

After my massive rebuild, I made a couple trades targeting slightly older players to build depth with high level veterans.

I definitely rebuilt with a youth movement, but then targeted teams for trades who were then rebuilding themselves - a useful strategy, as talent only hurts their 2024 draft pick at this point. So I was able to get Montgomery, Mike Williams, and a few other pieces from those rebuilding managers at a fair, or even slightly advantageous cost.

But no question, I rebuilt to win now. Bijan/ARich are certainly going to be pivotal parts, but it's hard to count on too much youth, as you suggested.

I'm really pleased with the result, and have mostly a very young core of talent. As many do, I'm looking at 2-3 year windows. In 3 years I'll reassess and decide whether it's worth selling off guys who might be getting a little long in the tooth in the name of 1st round picks (if they're still worth that to a competing team) so I can inject some youth into my roster.

Meanwhile after 2 years of rebuilding, I'm hoping to bring home a 'ship or 2. It's time.

 

[eighsse2]

targeted teams for trades who were then rebuilding themselves - a useful strategy, as talent only hurts their 2024 draft pick at this point

Good point, there. A good, potentially discounted, source of aging stars.

Seems like you've done a good job rebuilding to contender level in a relatively short period of time.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

targeted teams for trades who were then rebuilding themselves - a useful strategy, as talent only hurts their 2024 draft pick at this point

Good point, there. A good, potentially discounted, source of aging stars.

Seems like you've done a good job rebuilding to contender level in a relatively short period of time.

2 full seasons. Not for the feint of heart. I believe it was 23 trades all told? Maybe more.

 

[Tonycarpenter]

I think you can add value but acquiring future draft picks. Trade players for picks and reload. Then bundle picks for better picks. If everyone has 15-20 players but you have 2x as many picks. You're in better shape. Your team has more options. This creates 3 tiers of value. Your Team TOP TIER. Teams that traded away no picks 2nd Tier.... lower tier....Teams that traded away their picks. They need more luck to reload. You can consolidate picks. Typically players in the top 15 of fantasy draft carry most value. With strong turnover at RB spot. Guys in my league still draft Gus Edwards, Jacoby Brissett.