Strategy question (1 Viewer)

[Bayhawks]

So, I was listening to a ff podcast this week and the conversation turned to strategy during ff playoffs. It was with regards to whether your lineup decisions should be different if you were the favorite vs rhe underdog.

I was hoping to get more feedback from
The shark pool. I’m in a 1st round matchup & I was considering making a lineup decision or two that I might not normally make, based on the fact that we’re in the playoffs (win or go home), I was the underdog, and my opponent started several players on TNF, while I started no one.

Would those factors (playoff game v regular season; underdog or favorite, and knowledge of what 1/3 your opponents lineup has done) impact your own lineup decisions?

 

[joey]

So, I was listening to a ff podcast this week and the conversation turned to strategy during ff playoffs. It was with regards to whether your lineup decisions should be different if you were the favorite vs rhe underdog.

I was hoping to get more feedback from
The shark pool. I’m in a 1st round matchup & I was considering making a lineup decision or two that I might not normally make, based on the fact that we’re in the playoffs (win or go home), I was the underdog, and my opponent started several players on TNF, while I started no one.

Would those factors (playoff game v regular season; underdog or favorite, and knowledge of what 1/3 your opponents lineup has done) impact your own lineup decisions?

This is not meant to be a snarky reply but I always start the players that I think will score the most points. Every week.

 

[joey]

Adding more…
I instinctively take into account player scoring variability, matchups, weather, etc for every player.
But I don’t think I make any different considerations during the playoffs vs the regular season.

 

[eighsse2]

Generally playoff versus regular season shouldn't make a difference, except some situation where, maybe you need a crazy amount of points to be able to get into the playoffs by the tiebreaker; whereas in the playoffs you only want the win, not worried about points specifically.

As far as strategy, if you're the underdog, you want to increase your chances of a huge score (versus projection), and conversely if you're a favorite, you want to decrease your chances of getting a very low score (versus projection).

The only problem is, there isn't always a great way to do this. I mainly think of two ways: (1) boom-or-bust players versus reliable players, and (2) stacking positively or negatively correlated players.

If I'm an underdog, I'd love to stack a QB with a WR or TE on his own team. If I'm a favorite, I'd be more inclined to have WR's and TE's not on the same team as my QB. Similarly, if I'm an underdog, a boom-or-bust guy would be preferred over a steady scorer, and vice versa if I'm a favorite.

ETA: Also you could consider stacking a major offensive player and the opposing DST if you are a favorite, or avoiding that stack if an underdog. And counter-stacking major offensive players against you opponent's DST if an underdog, and avoiding that if you're a favorite.

But ... obviously, I wouldn't force that kind of strategy. That is, don't stack Mac Jones and Parker Washington over Justin Herbert and DK Metcalf, just for the sake of stacking.

ETA: And as far as knowing already what some players have done, that just magnifies your underdog/favorite status. If you're a 10-point favorite before anyone has played, then you're a moderate favorite. If you're a 10-point favorite after 4/9 of your opponent's lineup and 6/9 of your own lineup have played, then you are a much bigger favorite.

 

[jm192]

I don't think it changes AT ALL during the playoffs. The same things apply during a regular season matchup. You want to win EVERY week. I think something I've struggled with in year's past is taking for granted that I would make the playoffs and building the roster for the future--maybe not as aggressively targeting short term waiver players. 20 years ago, I got away with that a lot more. In 2024, between smart phones and the explosion/obsession with FF: Everyone has access to tons of data/information, and you've got to be hyper vigilant for every single week. If you take 1 thing from this already way too long of a post--value EVERY SINGLE REGULAR SEASON WEEK.

What they're talking about:

In the most general sense: If you're projected to win--you want safe plays. Play your floor guys. If you're projected to lose, you need upside. Play your boom/bust guys.

The problem with this: Sleeper and ESPN and Yahoo are all guessing. Now, projections DO grow more solid with more data. So if your opponent had multiple guys go Thursday night, you have a better actual idea of how it's looking.

As @joey said, generally, just play your best players. I'll usually pull up the FBG rankings and the Fantasypros rankings. If they agree, I generally pick the higher ranked guy. If they disagree, I'll usually ask others what they think.

Sometimes, if it's razor thin, I'll play the "Do I need floor or ceiling?" game.

You should be way down the process and down to your final flex players (or missing tons of guys due to injury) before getting this far, though.

 

[Runkle]

Absolutely a factor, but usually only in so much as a 'tie-breaker' between equal options in the last flex position.

 

[Chaka]

I personally don't trust the algorithms that create the estimates. Too many variables and I don't think I have ever seen a retrospective analysis of their predictive value.

Show me the data that proves when they predict a 57% chance to win it happens 57% of the time and I'll reconsider.

Until then it's worth as much as a bottle of Sex Panther, so start your best players and let the chips fall where they may.

 

[JohnnyU]

I personally don't trust the algorithms that create the estimates. Too many variables and I don't think I have ever seen a retrospective analysis of their predictive value.

Show me the data that proves when they predict a 57% chance to win it happens 57% of the time and I'll reconsider.

Until then it's worth as much as a bottle of Sex Panther, so start your best players and let the chips fall where they may.

You absolutely can't put any weight to these fantasy website predictions IMO. They are just for entertainment.

 

[Chaka]

I personally don't trust the algorithms that create the estimates. Too many variables and I don't think I have ever seen a retrospective analysis of their predictive value.

Show me the data that proves when they predict a 57% chance to win it happens 57% of the time and I'll reconsider.

Until then it's worth as much as a bottle of Sex Panther, so start your best players and let the chips fall where they may.

You absolutely can't put any weight to these fantasy website predictions IMO. They are just for entertainment.

Okay, I mostly, probably entirely, agree.

Where do you stand in these "advanced metrics" like the whole "X over expected" performance metrics?

I think they're mostly full of #### but... IDK maybe someone with a bigger brain than me has proven it but, IMO they're mostly full of

 

[JohnnyU]

I personally don't trust the algorithms that create the estimates. Too many variables and I don't think I have ever seen a retrospective analysis of their predictive value.

Show me the data that proves when they predict a 57% chance to win it happens 57% of the time and I'll reconsider.

Until then it's worth as much as a bottle of Sex Panther, so start your best players and let the chips fall where they may.

You absolutely can't put any weight to these fantasy website predictions IMO. They are just for entertainment.

....I'll add that they are only as good as the engineer programming it with the data available to them. I wonder if they are using the AI tools that google provides? My guess is they are not, because that can be expensive. I know from my job that google charges a pretty penny to use their tools. I'm sure there are other AI tools out there, but at the end of the day, how accurate they are or not comes down to the data used and the engineer implementing it.

 

[JohnnyU]

I personally don't trust the algorithms that create the estimates. Too many variables and I don't think I have ever seen a retrospective analysis of their predictive value.

Show me the data that proves when they predict a 57% chance to win it happens 57% of the time and I'll reconsider.

Until then it's worth as much as a bottle of Sex Panther, so start your best players and let the chips fall where they may.

You absolutely can't put any weight to these fantasy website predictions IMO. They are just for entertainment.

Okay, I mostly, probably entirely, agree.

Where do you stand in these "advanced metrics" like the whole "X over expected" performance metrics?

I think they're mostly full of #### but... IDK maybe someone with a bigger brain than me has proven it but, IMO they're mostly full of

See my last post that I replied to my previous post.

 

[Bayhawks]

So, I was listening to a ff podcast this week and the conversation turned to strategy during ff playoffs. It was with regards to whether your lineup decisions should be different if you were the favorite vs rhe underdog.

I was hoping to get more feedback from
The shark pool. I’m in a 1st round matchup & I was considering making a lineup decision or two that I might not normally make, based on the fact that we’re in the playoffs (win or go home), I was the underdog, and my opponent started several players on TNF, while I started no one.

Would those factors (playoff game v regular season; underdog or favorite, and knowledge of what 1/3 your opponents lineup has done) impact your own lineup decisions?

This is not meant to be a snarky reply but I always start the players that I think will score the most points. Every week.

This is my normal way of thinking as well. In the regular season, it makes even more sense. If I win by a lot in the regular season, all those points go towards determining seeding (when teams have equal records, the more points you score is the 1st tie-breaker in my main league), and there are weekly prizes for high scores, as well as an award for highest points scored over the year. So, IMO, there's no reason to "play it safe" during the regular season, as "extra" points are still beneficial.

In the playoffs, though, to quote Dom Toretto, "it doesn't matter if you win by an inch or a mile." If I score a lot of points and win, it doesn't mean any more than if I score 1 more point than my opponent. I still win.

I was an underdog going into TNF. His QB was Purdy. Now, I'm a slight favorite. He has a a couple of choices as his WR2. One of them is a boom-bust type WR who happens to be the WR for 1 of my QBs. I'm wondering if that should move me towards starting that QB, since if that WR goes off, my QB would be throwing it to him, mitigating some of those points.

 

[-OZ-]

Totally agree that I don’t care if I’m in the playoffs vs regular season, but if I’m a favorite I’ll play a safer floor over a ceiling. I’ve played Darnold over Anthony Richardson, and Tony pollard over Brian Thomas when I was favored (before Thomas started being consistent).

 

[Chaka]

I personally don't trust the algorithms that create the estimates. Too many variables and I don't think I have ever seen a retrospective analysis of their predictive value.

Show me the data that proves when they predict a 57% chance to win it happens 57% of the time and I'll reconsider.

Until then it's worth as much as a bottle of Sex Panther, so start your best players and let the chips fall where they may.

You absolutely can't put any weight to these fantasy website predictions IMO. They are just for entertainment.

Okay, I mostly, probably entirely, agree.

Where do you stand in these "advanced metrics" like the whole "X over expected" performance metrics?

I think they're mostly full of #### but... IDK maybe someone with a bigger brain than me has proven it but, IMO they're mostly full of

See my last post that I replied to my previous post.

Yeah, statistics are always a question of data quality (garbage-in/garbage-out). I personally feel that, beyond the quality of data, when it comes to predicting NFL outcomes, full
games or individual plays, there are far, far too many variables involved IMO for them to truly have value.

 

[kyoun1e]

So, I was listening to a ff podcast this week and the conversation turned to strategy during ff playoffs. It was with regards to whether your lineup decisions should be different if you were the favorite vs rhe underdog.

I was hoping to get more feedback from
The shark pool. I’m in a 1st round matchup & I was considering making a lineup decision or two that I might not normally make, based on the fact that we’re in the playoffs (win or go home), I was the underdog, and my opponent started several players on TNF, while I started no one.

Would those factors (playoff game v regular season; underdog or favorite, and knowledge of what 1/3 your opponents lineup has done) impact your own lineup decisions?

Absolutely.

I love when either I or my opponent have players on Thursday night. It gives you more data to work with.

If after Thursday night I'm projected to win big, given the choice of players on my roster I'm probably going with a safer bet and a higher floor. If I'm projected to lose big...the opposite...I'll go for ceiling.

Now all things being equal where it's projected to be a tight game, in the fantasy playoffs I tend to choose ceiling over floor. I always find I'm in shootouts with good teams so I'm going big or go home.

 

[zamboni]

I personally don't trust the algorithms that create the estimates. Too many variables and I don't think I have ever seen a retrospective analysis of their predictive value.

Show me the data that proves when they predict a 57% chance to win it happens 57% of the time and I'll reconsider.

Until then it's worth as much as a bottle of Sex Panther, so start your best players and let the chips fall where they may.

You absolutely can't put any weight to these fantasy website predictions IMO. They are just for entertainment.

Okay, I mostly, probably entirely, agree.

Where do you stand in these "advanced metrics" like the whole "X over expected" performance metrics?

I think they're mostly full of #### but... IDK maybe someone with a bigger brain than me has proven it but, IMO they're mostly full of

See my last post that I replied to my previous post.

Yeah, statistics are always a question of data quality (garbage-in/garbage-out). I personally feel that, beyond the quality of data, when it comes to predicting NFL outcomes, full
games or individual plays, there are far, far too many variables involved IMO for them to truly have value.

I think like a lot of statistical data sets, fantasy stats seem to be biased/anchored to what occurred the immediate week before rather than looking ahead. Either way, I don’t pay too much attention to them and use my own judgement.

But to the OP, I agree not to overthink it. Just put your best lineup out there that you think will score the highest - if it doesn’t work out at least you will second guess yourself less.

 

[da_budman]

I personally don't trust the algorithms that create the estimates. Too many variables and I don't think I have ever seen a retrospective analysis of their predictive value.

Show me the data that proves when they predict a 57% chance to win it happens 57% of the time and I'll reconsider.

Until then it's worth as much as a bottle of Sex Panther, so start your best players and let the chips fall where they may.

You absolutely can't put any weight to these fantasy website predictions IMO. They are just for entertainment.

I get a kick out of rtsports..... on the scoreboard it might say I ama 5 point favorite but when you click on the game I am a 53-47 underdog lol

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Ceiling vs floor as a tiebreaker is fine.

But this time of year most teams are riddled with injury & starting their best players.

I wouldn’t bench one over the other because of my projected likelihood as a favorite or underdog.

I’m the 7-seed of 7 in one league, and the 1-seed of 8 in another. I’m just rolling out my best players.

That said, with Okereke and Al-Shaair out, I’m choosing between one of their backups. I’m going with Hewett over Muasau for the higher floor. But that’s independant of my underdog status. With a 4th LB I want production.

It sounds reasonable, and if I were a FF writer I’d probably cobble together 1000 words to justify doing ceiling vs floor depending on odds, but mile-high I think it’s kind of a silly topic. Everyone is going to start their best players this time of year. I would never start a higher floor player as the 1-seed.

I might take more moon shots as a 7-seed, but again - I’m a 7-seed because my team isn’t that deep. So I’m just starting a lineup and hoping for the best anyway. I don’t have the luxury of such decisions. lol

 

[Mister CIA]

Last week I was down by 90, but I had four players to go on Monday night, including the Dallas defense, Jalen Tolbert, and Jake Ferguson; opponent's score was final.

At quarterback, the choices were Joe Burrow and Cooper Rush. Who do you start?

Edit: for the start your best players crowd.

 

[da_budman]

Last week I was down by 90, but I had four players to go on Monday night, including the Dallas defense, Jalen Tolbert, and Jake Ferguson; opponent's score was final.

At quarterback, the choices were Joe Burrow and Cooper Rush. Who do you start?

Edit: for the start your best players crowd.

That is not a choice and never will be a choice completely independent of the results.

 

[Mister CIA]

Last week I was down by 90, but I had four players to go on Monday night, including the Dallas defense, Jalen Tolbert, and Jake Ferguson; opponent's score was final.

At quarterback, the choices were Joe Burrow and Cooper Rush. Who do you start?

Edit: for the start your best players crowd.

That is not a choice and never will be a choice completely independent of the results.

Sure it is. Who would you start? I'm assuming winning is the goal and not total points.

 

[eighsse2]

Last week I was down by 90, but I had four players to go on Monday night, including the Dallas defense, Jalen Tolbert, and Jake Ferguson; opponent's score was final.

At quarterback, the choices were Joe Burrow and Cooper Rush. Who do you start?

Edit: for the start your best players crowd.

That is not a choice and never will be a choice completely independent of the results.

Sure it is. Who would you start? I'm assuming winning is the goal and not total points.

I don't quite get if this is to make a point or what, but I don't see why it wouldn't be Burrow?

 

[BassNBrew]

Last week I was down by 90, but I had four players to go on Monday night, including the Dallas defense, Jalen Tolbert, and Jake Ferguson; opponent's score was final.

At quarterback, the choices were Joe Burrow and Cooper Rush. Who do you start?

Edit: for the start your best players crowd.

That is not a choice and never will be a choice completely independent of the results.

Sure it is. Who would you start? I'm assuming winning is the goal and not total points.

Tough. Probably Burrow hoping he throws 2 pick 6s early and then goes nuts in a comeback with 6 TDS and 400 uards

 

[BassNBrew]

Last week I was down by 90, but I had four players to go on Monday night, including the Dallas defense, Jalen Tolbert, and Jake Ferguson; opponent's score was final.

At quarterback, the choices were Joe Burrow and Cooper Rush. Who do you start?

Edit: for the start your best players crowd.

That is not a choice and never will be a choice completely independent of the results.

Sure it is. Who would you start? I'm assuming winning is the goal and not total points.

I don't quite get if this is to make a point or what, but I don't see why it wouldn't be Burrow?

Because you’re getting a stack with Rush Ferguson/ Tobert.

 

[Mister CIA]

Last week I was down by 90, but I had four players to go on Monday night, including the Dallas defense, Jalen Tolbert, and Jake Ferguson; opponent's score was final.

At quarterback, the choices were Joe Burrow and Cooper Rush. Who do you start?

Edit: for the start your best players crowd.

That is not a choice and never will be a choice completely independent of the results.

Sure it is. Who would you start? I'm assuming winning is the goal and not total points.

I don't quite get if this is to make a point or what, but I don't see why it wouldn't be Burrow?

The only universe in which I stood a chance to win would have included huge games from Ferguson and/or Tolbert, which implies a huge game from Rush.

So I guess the question is, if you have a (theoretical) huge game from Rush in the bag, and an unknown from Burrow, who do you choose?

I started Burrow, but that might have been a mistake.

 

[eighsse2]

Last week I was down by 90, but I had four players to go on Monday night, including the Dallas defense, Jalen Tolbert, and Jake Ferguson; opponent's score was final.

At quarterback, the choices were Joe Burrow and Cooper Rush. Who do you start?

Edit: for the start your best players crowd.

That is not a choice and never will be a choice completely independent of the results.

Sure it is. Who would you start? I'm assuming winning is the goal and not total points.

I don't quite get if this is to make a point or what, but I don't see why it wouldn't be Burrow?

Because you’re getting a stack with Rush Ferguson/ Tobert.

Right. But none of these strategies should make a large impact in lineup decisions. As another poster I think said earlier, it's closer to a tiebreaker.

 

[eighsse2]

Last week I was down by 90, but I had four players to go on Monday night, including the Dallas defense, Jalen Tolbert, and Jake Ferguson; opponent's score was final.

At quarterback, the choices were Joe Burrow and Cooper Rush. Who do you start?

Edit: for the start your best players crowd.

That is not a choice and never will be a choice completely independent of the results.

Sure it is. Who would you start? I'm assuming winning is the goal and not total points.

I don't quite get if this is to make a point or what, but I don't see why it wouldn't be Burrow?

The only universe in which I stood a chance to win would have included huge games from Ferguson and/or Tolbert, which implies a huge game from Rush.

So I guess the question is, if you have a (theoretical) huge game from Rush in the bag, and an unknown from Burrow, who do you choose?

I started Burrow, but that might have been a mistake.

You make a good point, about the receivers having big games being almost mandatory for you to have a shot in this case. But still I think Burrow is the clear choice. Tolbert and Ferguson could have good games and combine for 40, and I think I'd still bet on Burrow to be more likely to hit 40+ than Rush. Granted, scoring format can vary wildly, especially at QB.

 

[ghostguy123]

If I have two guys to pick from, say Jameson Williams and Nick Chubb.
If the other team is finished, and I have 1 player left to go I may start Jameson is down 27, and start Chubb if I'm down 3.

 

[da_budman]

Last week I was down by 90, but I had four players to go on Monday night, including the Dallas defense, Jalen Tolbert, and Jake Ferguson; opponent's score was final.

At quarterback, the choices were Joe Burrow and Cooper Rush. Who do you start?

Edit: for the start your best players crowd.

That is not a choice and never will be a choice completely independent of the results.

Sure it is. Who would you start? I'm assuming winning is the goal and not total points.

I don't quite get if this is to make a point or what, but I don't see why it wouldn't be Burrow?

Because you’re getting a stack with Rush Ferguson/ Tobert.

Right. But none of these strategies should make a large impact in lineup decisions. As another poster I think said earlier, it's closer to a tiebreaker.

Well floor vs ceiling is certainly ssomething I take into consideration. Im assuming the lineup decision when this comes into play is a very close call though. Burrow vs Rush is not a real choice. In general though when I think I am favorite I favor the floor guy and when I think I am a decent underdog I go with the upside guy. Nobody in their right mind starts rush over burrow. Those are the types of decisions that should never factor into a nuanced strategy.

 

[BassNBrew]

If I have two guys to pick from, say Jameson Williams and Nick Chubb.
If the other team is finished, and I have 1 player left to go I may start Jameson is down 27, and start Chubb if I'm down 3.

Exactly

 

[Mister CIA]

You can only hope to contain Cooper Rush and minimize the damage.

 

[joey]

You can only hope to contain Cooper Rush and minimize the damage.

There’s playoff strategy for you. Play your best players and the rest is random chance.

 

[ShamrockPride]

So swing for home runs just cause you're the dog and you feel you have nothing to lose?

Yeah I have anecdotal evidence why you don't do that.

I did that earlier this year against the top team, ended up costing myself a 4 point loss, where if I played guys I normally would have, I'd have won. It ultimately cost me the #1 seed to him, I'm sitting here as the #2 with the same record as him, but he has the H2H.