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Dynasty Rankings (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Fear & Loathing
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Wanted to throw this out here instead of the Foles topic and get some opinions.
My pre-draft evaluation of Foles (strong) has changed some since I added sack data and rejiggered how I look at collegiate TDs and INTs, but Foles profile actually improved a bit as a result and with the changes his best comparables are Matt Schaub and Tom Brady when you include draft position (i.e. non-first rounders).
And what we've seen so far suggests that Foles could have a bright future despite his draft status.
But since I don't include any non-quantitative data in my evaluations and don't try to dissect a QB based on what he 'looks like' I thought I'd ask people who do those things what it is they don't like about Foles?
Usually a young prospect that's lighting it up as he has is instantly considered the next big thing, but the skepticism around Foles is still pretty high. Why?
My pre-draft evaluation of Foles (strong) has changed some since I added sack data and rejiggered how I look at collegiate TDs and INTs, but Foles profile actually improved a bit as a result and with the changes his best comparables are Matt Schaub and Tom Brady when you include draft position (i.e. non-first rounders).
And what we've seen so far suggests that Foles could have a bright future despite his draft status.
But since I don't include any non-quantitative data in my evaluations and don't try to dissect a QB based on what he 'looks like' I thought I'd ask people who do those things what it is they don't like about Foles?
Usually a young prospect that's lighting it up as he has is instantly considered the next big thing, but the skepticism around Foles is still pretty high. Why?
Concept Coop
Footballguy
He's not a traditional read-option QB, and he's not Andrew Luck. Given the current QB situation in dynasty leagues - I think it's going to take a lot for a QB like Foles to get a lot of buzz, and establish dynasty value.
ETA: I'd gladly add a little bit to guys like Eli, Ben, Dalton, and Flacco to get him. But I don't feel any urgency, especially with Teddy, Mariota, and Winston right around the corner.
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Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Well, ok. But that's all opinion. I'm looking for flaws.
Why has a guy that's averaged 30+ppg in his last 3.5 games not started to make people think... 'maybe he's Tom Brady'. What is it about Foles that convinces you he wasn't misdrafted?
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I'm speaking from a Dynasty market perspective.
In terms of him as an NFL player, I haven't seen enough to form a strong opinion. The only full game I watched was the Dallas game, and he looked pretty bad. I've seen the stats and have been impressed, but I automatically think "I guess the Raiders weren't ready for the system". Right or wrong.
In summary: I don't know.
RE: Dallas game - he had a groin injury and had trouble planting his feet. That's why his accuracy was so off and he was holding onto the ball. He wasn't himself because he was hurt. His concussion game him time to heal up from that injury.I'm speaking from a Dynasty market perspective.
In terms of him as an NFL player, I haven't seen enough to form a strong opinion. The only full game I watched was the Dallas game, and he looked pretty bad. I've seen the stats and have been impressed, but I automatically think "I guess the Raiders weren't ready for the system". Right or wrong.
In summary: I don't know.
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Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
I'm biased since I thought he was misdrafted last year. And obviously if that's your starting position what's happening now isn't going to change it. I also own him in almost all my leagues. So I know I'm no longer objective about the guy (outside the original all-#s evaluation).I'm speaking from a Dynasty market perspective.
In terms of him as an NFL player, I haven't seen enough to form a strong opinion. The only full game I watched was the Dallas game, and he looked pretty bad. I've seen the stats and have been impressed, but I automatically think "I guess the Raiders weren't ready for the system". Right or wrong.
In summary: I don't know.
So I'm trying to get a handle on the skepticism to check my own optimism and properly value the guy.
He's averaged 30+ the last 4.5 games (not 3.5) -- with the Dallas defense (25th) being the weakest of the five he's faced. Using Net Yards/Attempt the Giants are fairly good (7th) and the Bucs, Raiders and Packers (17th, 21st, 22nd) aren't terrible. Especially if you take out the the game where they faced Nick Foles.
Yet the response is muted. I get that some of it is that there's a glut of good QBs and people feel OK with where they're at, but it still seems odd.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
People assume his success is due to Chip, and the bad games are due to offenses having figured out Chip, and that eventually everyone will figure out Chip, and you'll be left with a 3rd round backup QB again. Additionally his role is still not defined. Chip still leans on the excuse that he's the QB because Vick is hurt, and there's an assumption he'll go get someone who fits his prototype better like Marriota or Manziel making Foles the next Eagles-QB-trade-for-picks bust. The flukiness of some of the big plays doesn't add to the aura. A couple of the Oak TDs were due to defenders falling down (so, what, he would have only had 5 TDs that day), and 2 of the 3 vs. GB were "go get it" passes that bounced the right way. Local response is no more definitive. Still a lot of skepticism. So yeah he's proved he belongs in the NFL. But for his dynasty value to skyrocket he needs both his tenure to be more definitive and his production be less open to skepticism. Foles has a much better resume than Tannehill outside of draft stock but Tannehill is probably worth more on the open market because his value as "upside QB" is not subject to the whim of a NFL FO. Even if Chip waits on QB and somehow gets Hundley in the 2nd or something, that is still a knock to Foles' value.
Regarding Luck, Newton and RG3, let me be the first to say this:
Is nobody worried that RG3 looks a little...ummm...bad this year? Not just "he's coming off a torn ACL and isn't quite himself running the ball yet" bad, but rather "is this guy really good enough throwing the football to be an elite NFL and fantasy QB" bad? Setting the injury concerns aside for a moment (which are real and also negatively impact his value), RG3 simply looks like he is in a lower class as a quarterback right now. He has appeared absolutely average passing the ball and if not for an awful lot of garbage time statistics against prevent/"let's just make sure we stay healthy defenses" after games were already decided because RG3 could do nothing offensively for the entire first half, his stats would begin to look pretty miserable. From what I have seen when watching, he misses receivers constantly, struggles to progress through his reads, and generally seems to have regressed significantly as a passer since his rookie season. A lot of this can be attributed to him running the read option less and not being able to keep defenses on their toes, but if the NFL has proven anything, it's that these new fangled offensive approaches are generally able to catch defenses off guard and produce great short term results, but generally are mitigated and don't produce the same benefit over the long haul. That's not to say that the read option isn't here to stay and won't have a lasting impact on the NFL, just that it's impact probably won't be as great as it was all of last season for multiple quarterbacks. If this is the case (and really we have 50+ years of evidence with defenses catching up to offenses) and we need to mitigate some of the expected stats via the read option, then isn't it fair to worry that many of the glaring problems RG3 has shown with his pure passing ability are an absolute concern and a signifcant detractor to his fantasy value? While I hardly think this makes RG3 worthless, I think it absolutely takes him out of the discussion when comparing him to some of the elite quarterbacks in the league.
Luck and Cam have, in my opinion, already established that they are elite passers and are able to win games purely with their arm (Luck moreso than Cam at this point). I have absolutely no worry about either of these players and expect them to headline the quarterback class for the next decade (along with Rodgers, who I assume will fall off towards the end of that decade). While I think RG3 has the talent to join them, in my opinion he needs significantly more improvement than the other 2 to make it to that level. Thus, I would rank them:
Cam Newton
Andrew Luck
RG3
Insert whatever hyperbole you want in the distance between Cam/Luck and RG3, my point is to emphasize that I believe he is a clear step down, regardless of the benefit of the rushing stats. Passing is still king in the league and RG3 has a large gap to make up to become the passer either Cam or Luck are.
Lastly, RG3 seems clueless on how to avoid taking punishment. He is getting absolutely KILLED on a game by game basis and would seem to be a far greater injury risk due to it. I'm going to discount the ACL injury, as that is a total fluke and can happen to anyone, but at his current pace, he seems a far greater risk to sustain concussions, seperated shoulders, etc... that happen from taking repeated big hits.
Is nobody worried that RG3 looks a little...ummm...bad this year? Not just "he's coming off a torn ACL and isn't quite himself running the ball yet" bad, but rather "is this guy really good enough throwing the football to be an elite NFL and fantasy QB" bad? Setting the injury concerns aside for a moment (which are real and also negatively impact his value), RG3 simply looks like he is in a lower class as a quarterback right now. He has appeared absolutely average passing the ball and if not for an awful lot of garbage time statistics against prevent/"let's just make sure we stay healthy defenses" after games were already decided because RG3 could do nothing offensively for the entire first half, his stats would begin to look pretty miserable. From what I have seen when watching, he misses receivers constantly, struggles to progress through his reads, and generally seems to have regressed significantly as a passer since his rookie season. A lot of this can be attributed to him running the read option less and not being able to keep defenses on their toes, but if the NFL has proven anything, it's that these new fangled offensive approaches are generally able to catch defenses off guard and produce great short term results, but generally are mitigated and don't produce the same benefit over the long haul. That's not to say that the read option isn't here to stay and won't have a lasting impact on the NFL, just that it's impact probably won't be as great as it was all of last season for multiple quarterbacks. If this is the case (and really we have 50+ years of evidence with defenses catching up to offenses) and we need to mitigate some of the expected stats via the read option, then isn't it fair to worry that many of the glaring problems RG3 has shown with his pure passing ability are an absolute concern and a signifcant detractor to his fantasy value? While I hardly think this makes RG3 worthless, I think it absolutely takes him out of the discussion when comparing him to some of the elite quarterbacks in the league.
Luck and Cam have, in my opinion, already established that they are elite passers and are able to win games purely with their arm (Luck moreso than Cam at this point). I have absolutely no worry about either of these players and expect them to headline the quarterback class for the next decade (along with Rodgers, who I assume will fall off towards the end of that decade). While I think RG3 has the talent to join them, in my opinion he needs significantly more improvement than the other 2 to make it to that level. Thus, I would rank them:
Cam Newton
Andrew Luck
RG3
Insert whatever hyperbole you want in the distance between Cam/Luck and RG3, my point is to emphasize that I believe he is a clear step down, regardless of the benefit of the rushing stats. Passing is still king in the league and RG3 has a large gap to make up to become the passer either Cam or Luck are.
Lastly, RG3 seems clueless on how to avoid taking punishment. He is getting absolutely KILLED on a game by game basis and would seem to be a far greater injury risk due to it. I'm going to discount the ACL injury, as that is a total fluke and can happen to anyone, but at his current pace, he seems a far greater risk to sustain concussions, seperated shoulders, etc... that happen from taking repeated big hits.
If I'm choosing a long term answer at qb in a dynasty model, my personal preference is for a reliable week to week performance with the lowest injury risk possible. Personally, I prefer to make decisions based on upside more in the rb and wr positions, as the vbd values tend to have a better chance on hitting a true home run at those positions. Mind you, this is an anecdotal and not mathematically based theorem, thus I have no data to support this hypothesis. Therefore I'd go
Luck
Cam
RG 3
Luck
Cam
RG 3
EBF
Footballguy
Griffin will probably look better in another year with his legs back, but I think his value has taken a hit regardless.
Not sure I'd even take him over Russell Wilson moving forward. I've got Wilson in a few leagues and while it never seems easy, the stats are almost always there at the end of the game. And he's doing all this with a pretty ho-hum WR corps. Harvin will be back soon and the rookie TE Willson could develop into a decent player. With the Harper pick flopping and Tate/Rice perhaps gone soon, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Seahawks dip into this deep WR class either.
Not sure I'd even take him over Russell Wilson moving forward. I've got Wilson in a few leagues and while it never seems easy, the stats are almost always there at the end of the game. And he's doing all this with a pretty ho-hum WR corps. Harvin will be back soon and the rookie TE Willson could develop into a decent player. With the Harper pick flopping and Tate/Rice perhaps gone soon, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Seahawks dip into this deep WR class either.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Sure. it's more "can" than "will". Luck is a pretty adept runner, but I think it's because he can pass much better than those guys, that he gets some easy TD runs down by the goaline. Defenders drop back more into pass protection and he can take that space with his legs if he doesn't find someone open.Coeur de Lion said:
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ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Anybody else think that as a group, dynasty owners and draftniks, we just overthink WR prospects?
Alshon Jeffery
Keenan Allen
Robert Woods
These guys were all obvious college studs. Insane production, absolute dominance at times.
Every one of those guys was discounted for various reasons--
Too fat. Can't separate. Lazy.
The knee. Other things I can't remember.
Not special. Not a measurables guy.
All these guys were natural, fluid receivers, and we all overthought it. Maybe the NFL did as well.
Is it time we just stop questioning these guys, stop nit-picking so much? Sometimes guys are just good. They're smooth, they're natural, they've got hands.
I can see it starting to happen with Lee already.
It will probably happen again with Cooper when the time comes.
Sometimes guys just have "it", and we knew it early in the process and earlier in their careers, but then the time comes to evaluate them for real, and we just...forget what we saw originally? Talk ourselves out of them? Talent is talent, and it seems we've been ignoring it lately at the WR position.
Alshon Jeffery
Keenan Allen
Robert Woods
These guys were all obvious college studs. Insane production, absolute dominance at times.
Every one of those guys was discounted for various reasons--
Too fat. Can't separate. Lazy.
The knee. Other things I can't remember.
Not special. Not a measurables guy.
All these guys were natural, fluid receivers, and we all overthought it. Maybe the NFL did as well.
Is it time we just stop questioning these guys, stop nit-picking so much? Sometimes guys are just good. They're smooth, they're natural, they've got hands.
I can see it starting to happen with Lee already.
It will probably happen again with Cooper when the time comes.
Sometimes guys just have "it", and we knew it early in the process and earlier in their careers, but then the time comes to evaluate them for real, and we just...forget what we saw originally? Talk ourselves out of them? Talent is talent, and it seems we've been ignoring it lately at the WR position.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
I don't know if you did it intentionally, but the problem with scouting these 3 specific guys is they had a better next-to-last year than last year in college. Lee is falling under the same trap by having the same dip in production. If you dominate in college consistently there are less questions. Granted, people questioned Crabtree some because his measurables were not elite. However he was still consistently a top 1 or top 2 pick in PPR leagues and close to that in standard. The NFL decides some of this for us. Jeffery could have still been a top 10 pick in the NFL based on talent and his soph year but people with more information than us decided otherwise. Were they wrong? Or just equally overcautious (when they're putting real money down)? I think this ties in nicely to the discussion earlier about using the NFL draft as a market to evaluate players, because evidence at least YTD is that it was pretty wrong and that draftniks know more than we give them credit for. Stacy and Ellington were the two most "overvalued" RBs due to fantasy draft position and they both delivered. Allen is another guy that took a hit in dynasty due to the NFL's evaluation but draftniks who still kept him top 4 or 5 were much closer to right.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Taylor seemed to get more buzz than Ellington, and Franklin was cleary next to Stacy, if not the most "overvalued" based on draft slot. Terrence Williams is proving to be a counter example: a guy the draftniks didn't respect, in relation to his draft position, but whom has shown worthy, thus far. Jordan Reed too, perhaps.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
I definitely pegged Williams as a one-trick pony. Even if that's true, it's a damn good trick that's translated. He's the perfect guy to have across from a guy who draws coverage like Dez.
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thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Ellington's ADP was higher (22.9 vs 26.3 according to Post Draft RSP). My experience was Ellington was taken earlier but I am not in any leagues with EBF. YMM have V.
Williams wasn't elevated like Wheaton or Allen were, but he wasn't taken that low. He was taken with other 3rd and 4th round WRs (Bailey, Patton). You can make a similar argument for Reed. His ADP is relatively close to TEs taken one round earlier. The point is not "draftnik evaluation is a perfect science". It does not elevate everyone who needs to be elevated. It elevates some people who don't deserve it. The question is what is its reliability compared to other naive indicators.
You are correct that Franklin's value disparity was even above Stacy's and he hasn't delivered on it circa Week 10. Although the story is not written. People "wouldn't take Stacy off of waivers" a short time ago, and Franklin has shown something. He is still a top 120ish player according to DLF mocks
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Going back to this, as I think it's interesting to think about, and potentially find value in:
As Thrifty pointed out, wasn't the NFL just accounting for the same concerns that we were? Even if we assume that said concerns don't come to fruition, were they not valid? The same red flags applied to many legitimate busts.
I think SSOG put it well, to paraphrase: The NFL draft is the best market we have, but it's biggest flaw, perhaps, is that the NFL is rewarded differently than we are; we're looking for different things. The NFL is drafting NFL players and we are drafting numbers, with little tie to the person or his real NFL value. We should be more willing to gamble on upside, and less concerned about a player not sticking in the league, due to injury other reasons. We don't care that Jordan Reed and Tyler Eifert can't block, if it doesn't keep them off the field. We don't care that Big Ben is a top 7 NFL QB, if it doesn't score us points. We don't care that Cam Newton isn't the best leader, so long as he wins enough to keep a starting job where he can rack up numbers.
The biggest concern about this trio of WRs - and the real reason fantasy owners didn't draft them above their draft slot - is a perceived lack of upside. We gamble all the time where the NFL is more hesitant to, and rightfully so. If Robert Woods is an instant NFL WR2 and can provide them with 70/800/6 a season for 5 years, he'll be worth what the Bills paid for him. But he won't be worth what we paid for him, assuming we drafted him where his NFL draft slot dictated.
The reason we waited on the trio, is because we weren't sure they could be different makers for our fantasy teams, not because of a fat picture, torn ACL, or down senior season. Looking at the guys we drafted around and above these guys, due to higher upside (whether accurate or not), they had the same questions; Hill, Hunter, Patterson, Baldwin and Little, to reach from 2011, etc. Right or wrong, we thought these guys had higher potential, or were more likely to be top 10 options.
killrobotkill
Footballguy
I have a chance to pick up Vance McDonald, Gavin Escobar, or Brandon Bostick off the waiver wire. How would you guys rank these three in terms of dynasty potential?
Thanks again for all the great analysis! This is definitely one of my favorite threads anywhere.
Thanks again for all the great analysis! This is definitely one of my favorite threads anywhere.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
It's a middle ground between what we thought pre and post NFL draft. At one point, we thought Allen was a top 15 pick, Woods top 20, Lacy top 30, Franklin top 50.
When we cling to our pre-draft stance - part of that is the risk/reward differences between NFL and FF: having less to lose from busts, and less to gain from steady, but unspectacular production; "I don't care that Montee Ball is safer than Eddie Lacy, due to injury or work eithc issues. He's more likely to be a difference maker."
But also, it is paradigm paralysis (which isn't always a negative). We become comfortable with our opinions on players, and find assurance in our stance from mock drafts, fellow forum members, etc. That's never easy to let go of - right or wrong. It's human nature to look for reasons to justify our comfort. Tell your kid that Santa Claus if fake before they're ready to believe it, and they're going to search for reasons that you're wrong. "Draftniks" are simply more invested or rooted in their opinions, as they invested more in the process of developing them.
Sometimes it turns into Keenan Allen, and our unwillingness to budge is rewarded. Sometimes in turns into Jonathan Dwyer - and not so much.
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thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Bostick is the only one you won't have a chance to pick up on waivers next month.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I'm starting to think that Hanna is the buy (free pickup) in Dallas, so scratch Escobar. I'd likely go McDonald then Bostick.
EBF
Footballguy
I'm definitely coming (back) around to that stance after getting a little carried away with the height/weight/speed stuff this past year. Look at someone like Allen Robinson. He's unlikely to run an insane time and he might be a little slight for his height, but the guy can just ball. Based on the success of players like Randle and Allen, I'm pretty sure he can make the jump to the NFL despite not quite being VJax or Demaryius from a tools standpoint.
Having said that, I'd also point out that different owners are looking for different things from their draft picks. I don't think too many people doubted that a guy like Robert Woods could become a solid #2. Therein lies the rub though. A solid #2 NFL WR isn't necessarily worth much in FF. So if you thought that was his ceiling, maybe you would've passed on him for a more volatile prospect like Hunter or Dobson who you thought had a bigger upside. Depth is important in FF, but difference-makers are worth exponentially more than middling WR2-WR3 types. It's the same as the justification for taking Patterson over Hopkins right now. Hopkins clearly has a better chance of becoming a solid player, but if you think Patterson has a much higher ceiling then it might make sense to take the gamble because the payoff could be so much higher.
Another thing I'd point out is that almost every player drafted (especially in the top 100-120 picks) has some degree of viability. Even the players that I really didn't like in that range (like Dobson, Williams, and Goodwin) clearly did certain things very well. That's why they were picked that high. So the fact that these guys can come in and make some good plays isn't all that surprising. It also isn't necessarily that meaningful. Lots of players can make a few good plays. Only a small handful can become long term difference-makers. Remember that relatively weak players like Roy Williams, Braylon Edwards, Nate Burleson, Drew Bennett, Germane Crowell, and Nate Washington have had some really good individual seasons. That isn't even counting guys like Keary Colbert and Snoop Minnis who showed flashes and then completely disappeared. A little bit of success isn't that meaningful unless the player can do it year-to-year. Some of those Jeffery/Allen/Woods/Dobson/Hopkins/Williams guys will fade into obscurity, so it's probably a bit premature to talk about how off we were on all of them. A few of them have moved up a lot in my estimation, but I'm still not sold that all of them are solid long term commodities.
Ted Mullins
Footballguy
As a Redskins fan, I could not agree with this more. When I watch Wilson and Kap run, it seems like they get every yard that's there but are great about getting down or out of bounds. Seems like RG3 takes at least a couple scary hits every game, and I thought he'd be a little better about that by now.
I'm not sure if it's his injury or what, but their whole offense looks worse this year. When they get behind and they absolutely have to throw it gets ugly - the o line does not pass block well and their receivers are not good beyond Garcon and Reed.
I am new to dynasty so I am not sure how far ahead you guys tend to look, but considering how things are going now it is fairly conceivable there's an entirely different system for the Redskins in a year or two.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Here's the problem with that... K Allen is in a stone cold perfect situation as a WR (elite QB, HOF TE, no great WR) and he's only WR19 since Week 3 (when he started playing). His situation isn't going to get much better and if teams ever decide they want to take Allen away, he's done.EBF said:
And all Randle has shown so far is that he's capable of beating #3 DBs in single coverage.
Meanwhile Thomas is WR4 on 15-30 fewer targets than his top-5 peers, and VJax is WR20 despite playing with a horror show at QB and not a single other NFL caliber skill position player on the team.
In other words, Thomas and VJax can help win you games under almost any circumstance. Guys like Allen and Randle can't unless the stars line up just so. And what separates the two groups is height, weight, quickness and speed.
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BeTheMatch
Footballguy
I don't think so. He's only in there for his blocking and then because he's out there he'll get a catch here and there. I would say Escobar seems to have a better shot at taking over for Witten some day than Hanna does.Concept Coop said:
Concept Coop
Footballguy
There are just too many non-height/weight/speed guys for me to completely buy this, including the best WR of all time. I don't know if Allen and Randle can be the top priority of a defense and still produce. Hell, Dez Bryant is struggling with that right now. But I think it's too soon to say that they can't, and ignore the flashes, based on measurables.
ETA: Re: Randle: The DB hierarchy changes depending on the players involved. Cruz is not drawing the "top DB", he's drawing the top "slot" DB; those things are not always the same. So I don't know that it's fair to suggest that Randle is only beating #3 DBs. Especially as he produces when Nicks is on the bench.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
Hanna is in there becuase he's the backup TE. Escobar has 4 catches on the season, so it's not as if they are using him in the passing game.
I'm not writing Escobar off, and will be picking him up if and when dropped. But I'd rather Hanna for free than give up much for Escobar.
BeTheMatch
Footballguy
OK, well, Troy Aikman, who probably knows more than you or me, specifically said Hanna was moved up to the "backup" role specifically and only because they wanted him to play in two-TE sets because of his blocking.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
They are not replacing Hanna with Escobar in passing situations. Blocking might be the biggest advantage that Hanna has over Escobar, but I don't take that be a good sign for Escobar, or a bad one for Hanna. If they were pulling Hanna out, and targeting Escobar, I'd likely have a different opinion.
I'm not saying Escobar can't or won't replace Witten. I am saying Hanna has a shot too, and is free. Unless the roster sizes are really big, I like betting on the underdog in this situation, assuming Escobar costs me assets and Hanna does not.
EBF
Footballguy
Allen and Randle are quick. If whatever you're using to quantify quickness doesn't confirm that then it's most likely not a good measure.You left out quickness
I'll never value Randle and Allen alongside VJax and Thomas, so no argument there. I believe that raw height/weight/speed explosiveness mainly serves to differentiate "great" from "good" players. However, at any given time in the NFL there might only be 12-15 guys with the prototypical skill set. With most FF leagues starting 30-40 WRs, there's a lot of room for flawed prospects to still achieve significant value. That's basically how I feel about guys like Allen and Randle. They're not tier 1 players and they never will be. They can still have value to winning FF teams though.
BeTheMatch
Footballguy
Even in passing situations, it seems to me that Hanna, if he's on the field, more often than not stays in to block. They're using him in that regard so they don't have to keep Witten in when the line is getting killed or they need extra time to maybe take a shot down the field. I don't take it as good news that Escobar is playing as little as he is, but I also don't think it tells the whole story. I wouldn't be surprised if it was Escobar who started, while Hanna stays in his current role, if Witten went down with an injury.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
DoubleG
Footballguy
I have (what I think is) an interesting dynasty question:
How do we see the Giants backfield situation from a dynasty perspective?
On the one hand you have David Wilson - highly touted rookie, 1st round pick, electric with the ball in space. But he has shown continued struggles, recording more fumbles than rushing TDs and only 3.3 YPC this season before going down with a severe neck injury.
On the other hand you have Andre Brown - 26 (soon to be 27) years old, who has a respectable 4.8 YPC over his career. He has had issues with injury - but of the "broken bone" type, as opposed to the tweaking things/knee/muscle/recurring problem type.
Is this just a mess of RBBC for the next few years? Is the "lead dog" for the Giants in 2014 even on their current roster? (or on IR?) Is Brown the guy in 2014 until he gets hurt or is Wilson the guy until he proves beyond a shadow of a doubt that he isn't?
Thoughts?
How do we see the Giants backfield situation from a dynasty perspective?
On the one hand you have David Wilson - highly touted rookie, 1st round pick, electric with the ball in space. But he has shown continued struggles, recording more fumbles than rushing TDs and only 3.3 YPC this season before going down with a severe neck injury.
On the other hand you have Andre Brown - 26 (soon to be 27) years old, who has a respectable 4.8 YPC over his career. He has had issues with injury - but of the "broken bone" type, as opposed to the tweaking things/knee/muscle/recurring problem type.
Is this just a mess of RBBC for the next few years? Is the "lead dog" for the Giants in 2014 even on their current roster? (or on IR?) Is Brown the guy in 2014 until he gets hurt or is Wilson the guy until he proves beyond a shadow of a doubt that he isn't?
Thoughts?
EBF
Footballguy
Would not be surprised if they used another relatively high pick on a back. They could also be candidates to sign someone like Ben Tate or Toby Gerhart.
I've said this before, but I'm very familiar with Andre Brown because he was actually my first 1st round pick in the college dynasty league that I used to play in. I thought he was the next Eddie George and a future Heisman contender. The simple fact of the matter is that the guy cannot stay healthy. He obviously has talent, but it's almost like McFadden, Beanie, or Murray in the sense that he's pretty much a mortal lock to get injured if he plays consistently over any extended time period.
Brittle constitution + highly physical playing style = chronic injury risk. It would be insane to ever rely on him. Both in FF and the NFL. He's a luxury vehicle to keep in the garage and maybe drive a few times per season. As your everyday commuter vehicle, he's going to leave you stranded by the side of the road.
So I don't think the Giants will roll with Brown as their guy next season. They may stand pat and hope that between Wilson and Brown they can get a good 16 games combined. Perhaps the more likely scenario is them adding a cheap free agent or a 2nd-6th round rookie who can come in and be a Zac Stacy or Vick Ballard if needed.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
In reference to the Hanna/Escobar chatter, any chance with the Cowboys massive cap problems this coming offseason that they let Witten loose? I'm not sure if it makes sense contract-wise, and I know its probably hearsay to suggest it, but they drafted a cheap rookie pretty highly and also have Hanna. Seems like a move they might be forced to make if the numbers line up. Could put this conversation in a whole new light.
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thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Brown tore his achilles his rookie year. A tendon is not a muscle but despite his success it remains a "recurring" type thing to keep tabs on. Brown is a FA this year but I'd expect the Giants to value him more than other teams. Although who knows.
BeTheMatch
Footballguy
Anything is possible, I suppose, but I can't see that happening. I think it would be more likely that Witten and even good buddy Romo would just restructure so he could stay on the team. Witten has to be getting close to the end I would think. Would he rather just finish as a Cowboy for life or move on elsewhere for a shot at a ring or one last shot at a big payday? No idea. Just seems like the kind of guy that would restructure to stay with the Cowboys.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
I agree, just seems like restructuring deals like Romo's puts them in even deeper #### in the future. I do agree that Witten seems like the type to do whatever he can to make it work and stay, but you never know.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I think the plan was solid. The Romo/Witten/Ware window is the teams best chance to win a championship in the next decade. They didn't think they could win a championship without Austin, Spencer, and Free. Austin and Spencer being the obvious cut candidates, and Spencer being - at the time - a very important part of the defensive scheme change. They planned on Ware, Spencer, Hatcher, Ratliff, and maybe the Tampa 2 wouldn't look so awful if they had that group.
It only looks bad now because they aren't winning, for reasons other than money. Had the team been as good as Jerry thought it was, pushign the bill into the future would be viewed differently right now.
There will be money saving cuts this off-season, but I'd be shocked if Witten was one of them.
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ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Oh, I agree. The restructure comment was in response to someone saying that Romo could restructure his new contract again to help the team this offseason--that would only make the cap situation worse in the future, right?
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Good question. I hadn't put any thought into the potential of them doing the same thing again. It seems far-fetched, but, again, it never really crossed my mind, so I haven't looked into it.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
It's generally a terrible idea, converting more of the future money into a bonus and being able to re-spread it out over the rest of the contract again, or whatever they do. Skins did it for years under Gibbs/Cerrato to try to extend the window they thought we were in. Puts you even deeper into cap hell.
Seems like something Jerry might pull if he feels they can extend their window just a bit longer. Because you're right, they need to do it now with Romo, or rebuild.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Funny coincidence--Escobar was just dropped in my Superflex league. For Rainey. Scooped him right up, even though I'm stupid deep at TE (Gronk, Reed, Allen, Gresham, Green, Escobar, Clay). But it's 1.5 PPR for TE's, I can't just leave that potential out there. At least we can start 3 TE's if we want. I almost want to make room for Hanna from the wire just to lock it down, but I really can't justify it.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Exactly. If you're going to cut Witten, you might as well start over. I don't think Jerry is ready to do that - and I don't blame him. Then again, it is Jerry Jones, so nothing would surprise me.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Do you think Garrett is sticking around another year if they take the division? To finish out this run? Seems like eventually he'll be shone the door, and if they don't make much noise the rest of the season, could be a new coach is brought in--and then the contract decisions on the older players gets a lot more difficult.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
For what it's worth, I'm with you. Everyone seems to agree in principle that, at QB, it's all about the upside... but here we have a young QB who is demonstrating elite upside, playing with a coach whose system is tailor-made to putting up video game numbers, and nobody's really all that excited about him. In my mind, Nick Foles is probably the best dynasty QB2, and even a credible low-end dynasty QB1. There's risks (I'm not 100% sure he locks down the job long-term, unlike with a Russell Wilson or Colin Kaepernick), but in that range, risk is irrelevant. It's all about the potential payoff.I'm biased since I thought he was misdrafted last year. And obviously if that's your starting position what's happening now isn't going to change it. I also own him in almost all my leagues. So I know I'm no longer objective about the guy (outside the original all-#s evaluation).I'm speaking from a Dynasty market perspective.
In terms of him as an NFL player, I haven't seen enough to form a strong opinion. The only full game I watched was the Dallas game, and he looked pretty bad. I've seen the stats and have been impressed, but I automatically think "I guess the Raiders weren't ready for the system". Right or wrong.
In summary: I don't know.
So I'm trying to get a handle on the skepticism to check my own optimism and properly value the guy.
He's averaged 30+ the last 4.5 games (not 3.5) -- with the Dallas defense (25th) being the weakest of the five he's faced. Using Net Yards/Attempt the Giants are fairly good (7th) and the Bucs, Raiders and Packers (17th, 21st, 22nd) aren't terrible. Especially if you take out the the game where they faced Nick Foles.
Yet the response is muted. I get that some of it is that there's a glut of good QBs and people feel OK with where they're at, but it still seems odd.
In the DLF mock I'm taking part in, I was the last guy to grab a QB in large part because of Nick Foles. I wound up waiting at the position and getting Brady/Foles at the 10/11 turn as the 12th and 15th QBs off the board. Personally, I think that's kind of crazy, but apparently others disagree.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Long, off-topic rant (sorry):
Assuming they go 8-8 and are blown out in the first round--as I expect them to be--I think Garrett will be gone. It's the only way Jerry can keep up his "See?! I'm not the problem!" parade.
Ryan was the fall guy last year, and I think Jerry was very close to axing Garrett too. He's out of fall guys. The blame is going to fall on him or Garrett, and we know Jerry's not taking any responsibility.
As a Cowboys fan, the worst part is this: we have a very slim chance to win a SuperBowl over the next 2-3 years; likely close to 0. But, I think that's as close as we'll get until Jerry hires a GM, steps down, or a submits to another Parcells situation, which isn't likely. Established guys don't want to coach for Jerry, and the other options won't be given enough control to change things.
This is how bad it is: The Cowboys traded down with thier 5th rated prospect on the board, and took a player they gave a 2nd round grade, after doing so. Worse? They admitted to a conversation in which the war room was devided: A Floyd group, an Eifert group, and a "Trade back for Franklin" group. How does that happen? You spend your time and resources developing your draft board and there's a conversation when your 5th rated prospect, who fits a major need, falls to you in the late teens?!
In hard knocks they showed a conversation in which the Cowboys were debating two players: Mendenhall and Felix. Jerry asks which one Garrett (OC at the time) likes, and Garrett, sounding coached, says something like, "ones an every down back, and one is a specialist. We already have an every down back (Barber)." Jerry smirks like, "Good boy, Jason. That's what I wanted to hear." This delusional old man is exercising his final say in every roster move, and won't suround himself with people who will question him.
As dark as the last 20 years have been for Cowboys fans, I feel sick thinking about how bad it could have been, if not for Bill Parcells wanting a challenge, and the team lucking into Romo. As low as our chances are with this group, any rebuild is going to last until Jerry dies.
