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Dynasty Rankings (10 Viewers)
- Thread starter Fear & Loathing
- Start date
On the subject of trading picks and/or non-elite players for elite talent - What does it cost to trade for Jonathan Stewart these days? I'm curious if in practice these kinds of trades are all that possible.
ETA: Or substitute some similar player to Stewart - he just happens to be the one I like.
ETA: Or substitute some similar player to Stewart - he just happens to be the one I like.
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treat88
Footballguy
Obviously it is extremely league dependent.In above posts, I have referenced the fact that in my money league I have acquired Calvin Johnson, Dwayne Bowe, and MJD. This league is an auction based, 16 team contract league so there are more variables in play than simple draft picks/player values. However, these players were in semi-similar situations to Stewart when I acquired them, i.e. elite young talents who have shown to be productive in the NFL game.That said, here is what I paid for them:Calvin Johnson: 08 2nd rounder, 09 1st rounder, Jarvis Moss, and Chris Henry (WR). Did the deal in 3/08.Dwayne Bowe: 09 2nd rounder, 10 1st rounder, 10 2nd rounder, and Ernie Sims. Did the deal 9/08. (Got a few late picks back in the deal also)MJD: 09 3rd rounder, Willie Parker, Mewelde Moore. Did the deal 10/08.Depending on your league, team, and fellow owners situation, I would expect to pay comparable prices. I would also say that if I owned Stewart, I would not be trading him for picks/non-elite players. Neither would I have made any of the deals in reverse that I have mentioned. I am always surprised when an offer like these is accepted. Basically you've just got to throw something at the wall and see if it sticks.J R said:
EBF
Footballguy
That depends on a lot of factors. Trade values aren't static. They depend on league scoring setup, starting requirements, roster composition, and the other owners in your league. In general, rebuilding teams will want a star caliber player in return for Stewart. If you can't give a star player or an elite young prospect on the brink of stardom, you might be able to pull something off with a combination of lesser players and high draft picks. I can't imagine a savvy Stewart owner giving him up in a straight player-for-pick deal. About the only thing you might be able to pull off is 1.01 or 1.02 for Stewart if you find an owner with a Crabtree/Wells/Moreno mancrush.Contenders might be willing to sell him a little cheaper if you can give them pieces that help them win right now. It's basically the same story though. They'll want a frontline player or multiple quality players or players + picks.J R said:
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
I think it depends completely on the specifics of your league.My main league has a lot of trading going on, but our set-up also stimulates the action (playoffs during NFL playoffs, for one), and we have a relatively long history. But I also know that there are many leagues where trading never happens. I used to be in one league where every single trade offer was one owner trying to hold the other owner over a barrel. To all of the owners in that league, "winning" a trade meant only that you got a lot more value out of the deal.J R said:
What do you think of Donovan McNabb's prospects as a dynasty QB. He's been pretty good points-wise this year and has been very good since Curtis got back a month ago. But there is some growing concern about the state of the Eagles.
The 3 INT game doesn't look good, but he still got over 330 yards and a score. Is McNabb still a legit QB1 in dynasty leagues and if so, how much longer will that be the case?
The 3 INT game doesn't look good, but he still got over 330 yards and a score. Is McNabb still a legit QB1 in dynasty leagues and if so, how much longer will that be the case?
footballguy#1
Footballguy
Given the play of D. Williams this season, I think Stewart might be able to be had for a high to mid first round pick in your next draft. He probably went in the top 5 of your draft this year. Where would he go in next year's draft? Probably top 5 again, despite Williams, right? I guess that's the way I look at it. I wouldn't give a top 2, but maybe somewhere between 3 and 5 would be about right?Hard to say for sure though, depends on who comes out next year, who doesn't come out next year and what you have to offer and your league rules and set up.J R said:
Before Week 9 the 1st place team and the last place team made this trade.1st place team gets: Eli Manning, Ryan Grant and DeSean JacksonLast place team gets: Trent Edwards, Jonathan Stewart and Matt JonesPersonally I thought that was a very fair deal for both sides. I think EBF is right that Stewart will be(or at least was at one point) easier to get from a contender for a lesser more established talent.(like Grant)
Anthony Borbely
Footballguy
The Stewart question is impossible to answer because it depends on the owner. I can say that I would not trade him for any pick in the 2009 rookie draft. The guy looks like a beast to me. I tend to hold those unless I am blown away.
Anthony Borbely
Footballguy
That last place team stole Stewart in that deal.
duece2626
Footballguy
Traded Stewart/Holmes for Gore.
Magnus_CA
Footballguy
Our keeper league is moving to a Dynasty format next season. One of the stipulations of the change is we're allowed to keep 4 players from this year's roster, but no more than 2 players per position. We'll then build what will be our dynasty roster around them in next year's draft. Our league is a non-ppr where we start 1QB, 2WR, 2RB, 1WR/RB Flex, 1TE, 1PK, 1TD.
I am out of contention for this year's playoffs so I'm looking to next year. I'm keeping SJAX and AD but it's the other two spots I'm having trouble deciding on. My options include Cutler, Marshall, Boldin, and Andre Johnson. I also have an option of trading Boldin and Chris Johnson for Larry Fitz, or perhaps he'd take Andre Johnson and CJ. Is there a clear cut answer for which of those 2 (in addition to Sjax and AD) provides the best nucleus to build my Dynasty team around next year?
I am out of contention for this year's playoffs so I'm looking to next year. I'm keeping SJAX and AD but it's the other two spots I'm having trouble deciding on. My options include Cutler, Marshall, Boldin, and Andre Johnson. I also have an option of trading Boldin and Chris Johnson for Larry Fitz, or perhaps he'd take Andre Johnson and CJ. Is there a clear cut answer for which of those 2 (in addition to Sjax and AD) provides the best nucleus to build my Dynasty team around next year?
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
How are you out of contention with a lineup that loks like this?CutlerADSJaxAJBoldinMarshall
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BigH
Footballguy
First time posting on here but I've been reading F & L's work on his blog and on Rotoworld for a while now. You seem to be high on Mike Walker as are a number of other writers. He topped many a deep sleeper list coming into season and was making great strides before being derailed by injury. I think Walker, not Jerry Porter, could the benefactor of Matt Jones' injury. Could you elaborate a bit more on Walker's future prospects?
stevegamer
Footballguy
There defineitely is NOT a clear cut answer. I'm pretty surprised that roster isn't in the playoff hunt, honestly. I'm guessing AD is Adrian Peterson - when did he stop being ADP?You've got more options than most people in your position, I'd bet. I'd recommend you at least consider not keeping 2 RB's - QB & WR last longer - but it is a non-PPR league, which devalues WR's. I also think one might keep Chris Johnson over Stephen Jackson. Who do you believe in on your roster? Peterson really is a no-brainer, honestly. If you believe in Cutler long-term, you want to keep the QB, as they will often be elite for a long time - and it means you don't need a QB come draft time next season. I'd look to go into that draft without feeling the need to reach for a particular spot, so I'd keep Cutler, Peterson, 1 WR, and another RB or WR, probably a RB if it's non-PPR.
coyote5
Footballguy
As others have said, you must have had some bad luck to be out of contention with a roster like that. Anyway....1. One of the first things I would do is try to project the keepers for my opponents. Try to figure out what is going to be available in the draft, and what your opponents likely will target in the first round. That will tell you a. which players on your roster will be most targeted, and which position will be strongest depthwise in the draft.side note - how many teams in this league? Looks like a 10 team league?2. I'd strongly consider keeping CJohnson and moving SJax in a trade for Fitz...3. Cutler seems like a good pick for a keeper
Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
I'd agree:Best case scenario for you:CutlerADPChris JohnsonFitz
Thanks for the responses everyone.The bolded part is what made me think he could be acquirable. I would guess he would cost a lot still in my league - I didn't want to make it ACF so I left it general.
In my experience (and it may just be my league format or other owners), trading for a young stud player is nearly impossible. But I still like the premise, and it's interesting to try to guess when such a player's value will dip just enough that you can make a trade like that.
Magnus_CA
Footballguy
Thanks to all who responded.
Not having to draft a QB would be nice...I'm not sure Cutler would be a reach in the 5th round (keepers occupy first 4 picks - if you keep 4) but as coyote5 pointed out I have to do a little homework to estimate if he'll even be available in the 5th. I feel strongly about all of my keeper candidates and could make an argument to keep any one of them. I love Chris Johnson and would happily keep him if Lendale wasn't such a TD vulture. SJax has been a headache to own this year but he's still young has immense talent with no competition in STL.
Mix in some bad luck with overthinking my matchups two weeks this year and I'm out of playoff contention. I'm considering moving SJax for Fitz but Fitz' owner already has Barber. Not sure I want to give him that much ammo for next season. As you suggested I'll take a look at our rosters to get an idea who will keep who next season. And yes, this is a 10 team league.
Magnus_CA
Footballguy
I think I may of found a solution to get us both what we want. Fitz' owner wants one of the Ariz WR as a keeper next year. I don't see myself keeping Boldin or Andre Johnson over Chris Johnson or Fitz so I offered Boldin and Andre for Steve Smith and Fitz. Then I'll have until a few weeks before next season to mull this over and see how the offseason goes. Then I'll have a pool of Fitz, ADP, SJAX, BMarsh, Chris Johnson, and Cutler to choose from. Good idea?UPDATE - Traded Andre Johnson and Boldin for Megatron - I'm not looking forward to having to choose 4 of Megatron, Cutler, ADP, BMarsh, Chris Johnson, and SJAX but I suppose it's a good problem to have.
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I'm curious too. At this point, he doesn't seem to be playing well as an NFL QB. His release is wacky and his accuracy is horrible as a result. But he's in a pass-happy offense. Reid uses the pass to set up the pass. So I think McNabb is a safe fantasy #1 QB. He has upside because the offense could take off, but downside because of age and injury history.My sense is that he is undervalued in dynasty leagues because so many owners have been burned by his injuries. Buy him now while the owner laments the 4 TO game. Then let him start off hot next year and trade him at his peak value before he ages. Just be sure to have a good #2 or Kolb.
Over his last 5 games McNabb is averaging 283 passing yards per game and has 8 passing TD's and 1 rushing score. That's pretty solid to me.I still think he's a decent QB1 and is light years ahead of younger guys like Matt Schaub or Eli Manning, but I'm very curious to see what others think.gheemony said:
az_prof
Footballguy
I own him and that is how I feel. I wouldn't trade him for any draft pick next year.
BigH
Footballguy
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
I agree with you. I like Walker much better than Porter for the rest of this season and especially for the future.The Jags have been high on him, but he just hasn't been able to stay healthy. He had passed Porter on the depth chart (and in the Jags' eyes) back in Weeks 4 and 5 when he had 5 & 6 catch games back-to-back before the MCL injury. You could tell in both of those games that Walker had earned the trust of David Garrard ahead of all of the rest of the non-Matt Jones receivers. I think he was clearly on his way to a breakout string of games a la Donnie Avery. The healthier he gets, the more involved he will be in the Jags offense. In my opinion, he's more talented than both Jerry Porter and Reggie Williams, and he doesn't carry the same knucklehead baggage that they carry. I think he's in the Top 40-50 for WRs and could make another leap.
coyote5
Footballguy
Honestly, I'm not sure if that is the direction I would have chosen, but you still have a great pool to chose from. Do you have a sense for what pick you will have in the 1st (5th) round? I.e. if you are picking 4th, then a question would be, will any of the top 3 teams select Cutler? If not, you drop him keep 2 RB, 2 WR etc. Looking at your list, SJax would go top 3 as would BMarsh. Actually I think you may have created a problem by trading Johnson and Boldin. If both those guys are going to be kept, then that is one less top talent that would be available in the draft next year. Not sure if that makes sense or not.
BigH
Footballguy
Thanks for the input, F & L. I've been patient with Walker this season and will continue to do so. A big time talent like his definitely warrants it. I've currently got Walker and Devin Thomas as the top receiving "prospects" on my squad. A recent article has given me hope that Thomas can have a nice finish for this season and build on for next year. Sorry if already posted:I agree with you. I like Walker much better than Porter for the rest of this season and especially for the future.The Jags have been high on him, but he just hasn't been able to stay healthy. He had passed Porter on the depth chart (and in the Jags' eyes) back in Weeks 4 and 5 when he had 5 & 6 catch games back-to-back before the MCL injury. You could tell in both of those games that Walker had earned the trust of David Garrard ahead of all of the rest of the non-Matt Jones receivers. I think he was clearly on his way to a breakout string of games a la Donnie Avery.
The healthier he gets, the more involved he will be in the Jags offense. In my opinion, he's more talented than both Jerry Porter and Reggie Williams, and he doesn't carry the same knucklehead baggage that they carry. I think he's in the Top 40-50 for WRs and could make another leap.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...8111803631.html
mulliganm
Footballguy
Later this month I will have to choose between Matt Jones and Mike Walker. Who do you like more?I agree with you. I like Walker much better than Porter for the rest of this season and especially for the future.The Jags have been high on him, but he just hasn't been able to stay healthy. He had passed Porter on the depth chart (and in the Jags' eyes) back in Weeks 4 and 5 when he had 5 & 6 catch games back-to-back before the MCL injury. You could tell in both of those games that Walker had earned the trust of David Garrard ahead of all of the rest of the non-Matt Jones receivers. I think he was clearly on his way to a breakout string of games a la Donnie Avery. The healthier he gets, the more involved he will be in the Jags offense. In my opinion, he's more talented than both Jerry Porter and Reggie Williams, and he doesn't carry the same knucklehead baggage that they carry. I think he's in the Top 40-50 for WRs and could make another leap.
Felix Jones on the IR. I suspect many owners will have a tough decision on whether to keep him. Trade value is likely to be low since any talent he showed will have been forgotten by others. Is he just Jerious Norwood-like or does he have upside in a Chris Johnson-like role with Barber, or even as Barber's replacement because Barber might get hurt (theoretically based on his running style)?
Tau837
Footballguy
Curious what people think the going rate is for Tomlinson nowadays. I see F&L has him at #11 in his most recent RB rankings. (That in and of itself is interesting, considering he is essentially the same age as Westbrook who is at #5, but that's a tangent.)
I see no reason to think Tomlinson won't continue to be productive the rest of this year, next year, and maybe 1-2 more years after that. Not 27 TD productive, but RB1 caliber the rest of this year, next year, and perhaps slipping to RB2 caliber in 2010 and holding that kind of value for another year or two. (I'm assuming Tomlinson will hang on for at least a few more years, hoping for a ring and also pushing his numbers into elite all time territory.)
I'm interested in what would be a fair offer in terms of draft picks only, players only, and/or a mix.
I see no reason to think Tomlinson won't continue to be productive the rest of this year, next year, and maybe 1-2 more years after that. Not 27 TD productive, but RB1 caliber the rest of this year, next year, and perhaps slipping to RB2 caliber in 2010 and holding that kind of value for another year or two. (I'm assuming Tomlinson will hang on for at least a few more years, hoping for a ring and also pushing his numbers into elite all time territory.)
I'm interested in what would be a fair offer in terms of draft picks only, players only, and/or a mix.
I think Jones is a lot closer to Norwood than Johnson. Barber's not going anywhere and is an excellent RB, when is Jones going to see even 200 touches?
for better or worst.i traded LT for Ronnie Brown and Crotchery. didn't think ricky williams was going to be much of a threat, not so sure now.
Max Power
Footballguy
The guys on the audible this week brought up the point that the top 2-3 RBs in this year's class might have some better landing spots in terms of playing time and production than the first rounders of the 2008 class.
I guess they are talking Cinci, NE, and Arizona? Maybe Seattle? Are there really any other teams that would consider a RB in rd1?
I guess they are talking Cinci, NE, and Arizona? Maybe Seattle? Are there really any other teams that would consider a RB in rd1?
tex
Footballguy
I just traded MJD for LT in a PPR league. Mistake? Maybe, but only time will tell. I'm looking to the playoffs this year though and LT's playoff schedule is nice with Oakland, KC, and TB.
munchkin
Footballguy
New England will not draft an RB in the first round. Depending on where they fall and who is available I say they will go O or D Line. I would think Cincy would do the same thing. There line play is killing them.
Max Power
Footballguy
I think I agree the Bengals will look elsewhere. Not sure Wells is going to be a top 5 pick. It would make more sense for them to grab an OT round 1 and pick up Murray or McCoy in RD2.However, I do think NE might look RB. Problem is that they seem to favor the bigger back, where the top of the 09 class looks a little undersized. I like Moreno in Arizona and I kind of doubt Seattle grabs a first round back. Just trying to figure out where these "opportunities" are for this class to come in and produce day1.
stevegamer
Footballguy
I don't expect NE to go RB, they've got some backs who do different things, and Maroney was a high pick.
Cincy makes some sense, as you nver know what they ae going to do, and they need a RB, amongst other things.
I don't see Seattle going that route with bringing in Jones & Duckett this year as FA's & Duckett being a Mora guy.
Arizona definitely could, if Hightower doesn't play well down the stretch. I think they will grab a back early, even if he & Arrington play well, just to get more options.
Tampa Bay maybe if Caddy and/or Graham dosn't come back healthy.
Browns, as Lewis is getting older.
Cincy makes some sense, as you nver know what they ae going to do, and they need a RB, amongst other things.
I don't see Seattle going that route with bringing in Jones & Duckett this year as FA's & Duckett being a Mora guy.
Arizona definitely could, if Hightower doesn't play well down the stretch. I think they will grab a back early, even if he & Arrington play well, just to get more options.
Tampa Bay maybe if Caddy and/or Graham dosn't come back healthy.
Browns, as Lewis is getting older.
brakeyawself
Footballguy
Just got Got Roddy White and Roethlisberger for JRussell, E Graham, Cotchery, Bulger during week 11. Felt like alot to give up at the time but had a deep bench. A season ending Graham injury later, im feeling much better about it.
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
That was robbery even before Graham got hurt. I would not have given Roddy White for those four players, much less throwing in Big Ben.
A
awesomeness
Guest
giving up a lot? You gave away a WR2, an RB3 for a QB1 and a WR1. Graham doesnt have the talent level to last the long haul as a starting RB either.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
awesomeness said:Burning Sensation said:
A lot to give up? You traded away roster fodder for a Top-10 WR and a franchise QB.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Good question. I didn't compare the two players against each other when I ranked them, but if I had to think deeply about it I'd say that LT2 seems like he has higher "cliff" factor than Westbrook. When Westbrook is even close to full health, he's a difference maker. Tomlinson has been pedestrian all season, and he swears that he's been as healthy the past couple of weeks as he's ever been. He's had so many more touches over his career than Westbrook has, and the late-career production of a guy like Tiki Barber I would think bodes well for Westbrook. Will Tomlinson reach difference-maker status again at any point during the rest of his career? FWIW, in my main Dynasty league, LT2 was on one owner's roster his entire career up until this season. He was traded before the season along with T.J. Houshmandzadeh for MJD & a first round pick. Then he was traded again a month ago. Details:Tomlinson, Sproles, Jacob Hester for Deion Branch, Steve Smith (NYG), Edgerrin James, and Round 1, 3, & 5 draft picks. I think there's no question he was worth the risk at that price.
thehornet
Footballguy
Well, i wouldn't call Cotchery anything close to roster fodder, it was a fabulous trade for you.awesomeness said:Burning Sensation said:
brakeyawself
Footballguy
Thats more along the lines of what I was thinking too. Considering JMarcuss was a 1st pick and only a year of playing in, this trade could even out a bit in the future. Also if Bulger could rebound from his slide this year. I guess I just dont like JMarcuss that much thoughWell, i wouldn't call Cotchery anything close to roster fodder, it was a fabulous trade for you.awesomeness said:Burning Sensation said:
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
So was Akili Smith. I bet there are quite a few leagues where both JaMarcus Russell and Marc Bulger are sitting freely available on the waiver wire.
Tau837
Footballguy
Thanks, F&L. LT went on the block in our league, which is why I asked. We asked the owner to look over our roster and tell us what he would want in addition to a 2009 first round pick (probably around 1.7 or so), excluding a few core players. He didn't see anything he liked, and we decided we did not want to trade 2 first rounders (with the second one probably in the top 5) and/or any of our core players... we felt 2 first rounders is too much mortgaging of the future and trading our core players negates the short term value of LT in the lineup and may also hurt long term.I figured your rankings of Westbrook and LT had something to do with career touches. Some things to think about:1. Westbrook has never played a full season. Never. I know his PPG is great. But especially looking at all of his problems this year, it is hard to feel confident that he'll be able to stay on the field for most of his future seasons. In contrast, this is the first year LT was really affected by injury, and there is no reason to believe it will continue. I understand he has more career touches, but there is really no proof that will translate into missed time going forward.2. Speaking of touches, LT is on pace for more than 350 this season, while Westbrook has only had that many once in his career (last season). I see no reason to believe LT will not continue to have a lot more touches every season going forward.3. Reid could be out after this season. As could McNabb. How will a new coaching staff, QB, and offense affect Westbrook's PPG production? I suppose Turner could also be out, but at least his QB will remain the same. And I'd say it is less likely San Diego's offense would be changed much, since it is obviously their defense that needs improvement.4. For those who believe in intangibles, LT has two that Westbrook doesn't IMO: pushing himself up all time lists to improve his legacy and HOF chances, and coming back strong next year to redeem himself for this season's disappointment. Both of them of course want to hang on and push for a ring.Given that LT is 29.2 and Westbrook is 29 (per your blog), it's hard to see the big gap in your ranking. IMO LT is probably close to correct and Westbrook is too high.
brakeyawself
Footballguy
Obviously some people dont see JMarcus as a bust yet. But this is his first full year of playing. I'd also like to take a moment to appreciate your near mastery of hindsight. However, Akili was the 3rd overall pick, Jamarcus was the first overall. A small difference I know. But good job pointing out that players might bust. Tim Couch comes to mind also.
Scooby1974
Footballguy
What do you guys think of Brandon Jackson's dynasty value? Will he ever amount to anything significant? Does he move out of GB and become legit or is he "drop-able" in a 10 team 27 man roster dynasty?
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Hindsight? Russell's career is just getting under way. The Smith analogy was just a way of pointing that all young prospects don't have value just because they're young and highly drafted. I wasn't trying to get on you. I was simply pointing out that a lot of Dynasty owners benefit from coming to a quick and decisive opinion on young players. Russell has already been called a bust by some analysts, so it shouldn't be a shock if his career does go the way of Akili Smith.brakeyawself said:
Bump for thoughts after today's benching. Anybody see the game and know why it was such a disaster? I almost think McNabb could be better on another team. Minnesota?
