What I am looking for is the guys like Ryan Grant of last year. He should have been sold during the offseason (even after the draft since GB didn't really take a RB that would challenge him). On the "buy low" side, I would say someone like Calvin Johnson, Roddy White, or Chris Johnson. Even a Thomas Jones (who could have been had for a song and was very valuable in start 3 RB leagues).
After the 2003 season, I had Julius Jones and Kevin Jones on one of my dynasty rosters. Both of those guys are near worthless in FF leagues right now, but that wasn't the case at the time. They were consensus top 3-4 rookie picks who had shown serious flashes of talent during their rookie seasons. Both guys were ranked as consensus top 10 dynasty RBs. Should I have sold high? Of course, but it's a lot tougher to make that call when you're the one sitting there with two 22 year old RBs who look like future stars. You tend to want to keep guys like that. How was I to know that they had both already peaked?Knowing when to buy and sell is a delicate art. On some level it's just a judgment call. I think Eddie Royal is going to be a useful FF player for a long time. Why? Because he was a high pick, he has freakish combine numbers, he had rare production for a rookie WR, and he passes the eyeball test with flying colors. I'd feel comfortable acquiring him in a dynasty league at his current cost.
I'm less certain about someone like Matt Forte. He had a great FF season, but there are reasons to doubt him. Most of his production was the result of a huge workload and a slightly skewed (IMO) number of TDs. He wasn't a workout warrior like Eddie Royal (he doesn't have rare physical gifts) and, more importantly, he was held under 4.0 YPC in 10 of his 16 games last season. He didn't play exceptionally well. He just put up exceptional FF numbers. I think it's
possible that he'll become a consistent top 10 performer, but I'm not convinced that it's
probable. Given that Forte will certainly be valued as a consensus top 10 RB this offseason, he's an example of someone I would try to sell.
Ultimately, there's no way to know for sure. It's just a judgment call. You have to weigh the variables and make a decision. The quality of your decisions will determine the fate of your team.
Thanks, Kitrick. I know you always have a great read on the Packers. I like Nelson, but you make a good point that Jones is a more explosive receiver. He's more of a playmaker whereas Nelson seems like more of a possession receiver right now.
eangelo Williams - HoldLT - SellPierre Thomas - BuyMainly looking for players that are ripe for making a move at.
" that one either.Its pretty obvious that John Fox hates rookies, at least at RB if not across the field. He's constantly held players back that fantasy circles have thought were superior talents, but it makes it very hard to tell what's really going on, since we're batting about .500 in our analysis.
I pretty much agree with most of it. I do think the Steelers will run more next year and the Lions will too...at least as long as they can stay close.
The interesting guy on F&L's list is Cedric Benson. He came out hyped, and did very little and looked just okay. He bounces out of the league, and looks "decent" on Cincy - maybe actually "good considering the OL". The performance Forte put up this year was what Benson would supposed to do - but now Forte leads the way for the Bears, not Benson.So it's interesting that we know Forte can be a top-10 back if everything goes right - but will it go right again? That's the question you need to ask yourself and if you can get a more proven player for him, think about taking it. If you think he's a solid NFL back and will be a good player for a while, that makes sense - if you want to deal him for what you think is a great deal, that makes sense. If you avoid the dumb moves, you're already ahead of the game some.Honestly, my goal is to try and ask myself very few judgement questions, because I get them wrong - a lot - when I draft offensive players. KJones, Rogers, Winslow, VDavis, Clayton(Bal).
LOL. Thanks for the nice comment though. As you said in your previous post to the one I'm quoting, "You win some, and you lose some. You just better hope you win a lot more than you lose." I ended up winning the league in which I traded away Reggie Wayne for T.O. and Selvin Young, but it sure wasn't because of that horrible deal.Keep up the GREAT work on the blog, this thread, and at Rotoworld Chris. I haven't posted nearly as much this season as in years past due to personal and work time restrictions, but I still keep up. You're my hero, man. 
You made some great points, especially #5.
It's easy to hop on board when a player is ultra-productive. The true challenge is folding your arms and setting your jaw when the rest of the board (and conventional wisdom) is caught up in the fever. In fact, the most annoying trend around here for the past few seasons is the "No love for _______?" type of posts. Look, guy, there's a reason we don't like your favorite pet project, ok?I'm just as proud of pooh-poohing Joseph Addai's value over the past couple of years as I am about being out front on MJD, Adrian Peterson, Calvin Johnson, and Chris Johnson. It's easy to see the talent on those guys, but it's much harder to stand in here and take the heat about Addai's future value when he's putting up ultra-productive numbers in the present.
But keep in mind that often someone will argue with you over a ranking or a specific player because they themselves aren't 100% sure. Maybe they are looking to be convinced by someone they respect instead of blindly following their list.It's easy to say that 3 or 4 slots really don't matter on the rankings...but even one spot could be the difference between having the player on your squad or not, particularly near the top of the rankings. Arguing over whether a guy should be #3 or #6 can have great value to the masses. (Obviously #20 vs. #23 is a different story)
I pretty much agree with most of it. I do think the Steelers will run more next year and the Lions will too...at least as long as they can stay close.
