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IN the TE rankings, I'd pay closer attention to Celek. Right now you've got him down around #28, which makes sense.

But he's a guy most should be paying a little closer attention to. The featured TE in the Eagles offense should be performing in at least the TE10-13 area. Celek is only in his second year and appears to have the inside track to the job for next season. It bears watching to see if Philly spends a high pick on a TE, but I don't think that's likely.

It might be too soon to bump him significantly, but he's a guy TE deficiant dynasty leaguers would be well served to snag now while he's still dirt cheap or even free. (Grabbed him off waivers in one league last week)

He's been on my roster this year, and the horrible decision to franchise LJ Smith last offseason lrd the eagles to not pursue Gonzo, amongst other things. Celek is the best reciving TE on the team, and technically Smith is still atop the depth chart - he's just hurt again:

http://www.philadelphiaeagles.com/team/DepthChart_Text.asp

Celek hasn't been hurt - played 16 games each year, so I'm not sure why F&L is wondering if he can stay healthy. LJ Smith is the injury-prone guy.

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Celek hasn't been hurt - played 16 games each year, so I'm not sure why F&L is wondering if he can stay healthy. LJ Smith is the injury-prone guy.

I was thinking more along the lines of body type and last year's shoulder surgery, but you're right that he's played all 16 games both years in the league while L.J. has been constantly fighting nicks and pains. Probably just one of those tricks of memory on my part.

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It's an inexact science, to be sure, but the three things I look for are:1. Elite talent2. Likelihood of injuries3. Does he produce as a great NFL player, not just a great fantasy player.

With this is mind, any thoughts on Vincent Jackson? You gave him a significant bump in the latest rankings. I'm pleased with his continued improvement year-over-year and ability to stay healthy but can he be a great NFL player? It looks like we might have to worry about a knucklehead factor with him too.
Not sure if you missed this..

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What I am looking for is the guys like Ryan Grant of last year. He should have been sold during the offseason (even after the draft since GB didn't really take a RB that would challenge him). On the "buy low" side, I would say someone like Calvin Johnson, Roddy White, or Chris Johnson. Even a Thomas Jones (who could have been had for a song and was very valuable in start 3 RB leagues).

After the 2003 season, I had Julius Jones and Kevin Jones on one of my dynasty rosters. Both of those guys are near worthless in FF leagues right now, but that wasn't the case at the time. They were consensus top 3-4 rookie picks who had shown serious flashes of talent during their rookie seasons. Both guys were ranked as consensus top 10 dynasty RBs. Should I have sold high? Of course, but it's a lot tougher to make that call when you're the one sitting there with two 22 year old RBs who look like future stars. You tend to want to keep guys like that. How was I to know that they had both already peaked?
Maybe but the following years showed the same trend. RB aren't reliable and rookies even less. Trading rookie RB who performed well in their first season would reward you more often then not IMO. Of course there is a few exception. (ADP, MJD). Not sure who is the exception in this year class but its likely a few of them have already peaked.

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It's an inexact science, to be sure, but the three things I look for are:1. Elite talent2. Likelihood of injuries3. Does he produce as a great NFL player, not just a great fantasy player.

With this is mind, any thoughts on Vincent Jackson? You gave him a significant bump in the latest rankings. I'm pleased with his continued improvement year-over-year and ability to stay healthy but can he be a great NFL player? It looks like we might have to worry about a knucklehead factor with him too.
Not sure if you missed this..
I don't really have any thoughts on him at the moment. I like his improvement, I like his size, I like his bigplay ability, I like his potential, I like Rivers and the Chargers offense emphasizing the pass. I don't like the inconsistency, and I don't like the DUIs, but I think it's early to call him a knucklehead since there's never been any other problems with the law, his coaches, insubordination, laziness, etc. I don't think I'm a knucklehead, and I could have easily been charged with multiple DUIs in my early-to-mid 20s.

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What I am looking for is the guys like Ryan Grant of last year. He should have been sold during the offseason (even after the draft since GB didn't really take a RB that would challenge him). On the "buy low" side, I would say someone like Calvin Johnson, Roddy White, or Chris Johnson. Even a Thomas Jones (who could have been had for a song and was very valuable in start 3 RB leagues).

After the 2003 season, I had Julius Jones and Kevin Jones on one of my dynasty rosters. Both of those guys are near worthless in FF leagues right now, but that wasn't the case at the time. They were consensus top 3-4 rookie picks who had shown serious flashes of talent during their rookie seasons. Both guys were ranked as consensus top 10 dynasty RBs. Should I have sold high? Of course, but it's a lot tougher to make that call when you're the one sitting there with two 22 year old RBs who look like future stars. You tend to want to keep guys like that. How was I to know that they had both already peaked?
Maybe but the following years showed the same trend. RB aren't reliable and rookies even less. Trading rookie RB who performed well in their first season would reward you more often then not IMO. Of course there is a few exception. (ADP, MJD). Not sure who is the exception in this year class but its likely a few of them have already peaked.
:crazy:

Just hang onto the elite talents and trade the rest. Now you just have to figure out who the elite talents are, and those are your nucleus players.

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It's an inexact science, to be sure, but the three things I look for are:1. Elite talent2. Likelihood of injuries3. Does he produce as a great NFL player, not just a great fantasy player.

With this is mind, any thoughts on Vincent Jackson? You gave him a significant bump in the latest rankings. I'm pleased with his continued improvement year-over-year and ability to stay healthy but can he be a great NFL player? It looks like we might have to worry about a knucklehead factor with him too.
Not sure if you missed this..
I don't really have any thoughts on him at the moment. I like his improvement, I like his size, I like his bigplay ability, I like his potential, I like Rivers and the Chargers offense emphasizing the pass. I don't like the inconsistency, and I don't like the DUIs, but I think it's early to call him a knucklehead since there's never been any other problems with the law, his coaches, insubordination, laziness, etc. I don't think I'm a knucklehead, and I could have easily been charged with multiple DUIs in my early-to-mid 20s.
Fair enough, thanks. He's a bit of an enigma to me, so your full tier bump had me wondering if you were beginning to see signs of a special player.

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It's an inexact science, to be sure, but the three things I look for are:1. Elite talent2. Likelihood of injuries3. Does he produce as a great NFL player, not just a great fantasy player.

With this is mind, any thoughts on Vincent Jackson? You gave him a significant bump in the latest rankings. I'm pleased with his continued improvement year-over-year and ability to stay healthy but can he be a great NFL player? It looks like we might have to worry about a knucklehead factor with him too.
Not sure if you missed this..
I don't really have any thoughts on him at the moment. I like his improvement, I like his size, I like his bigplay ability, I like his potential, I like Rivers and the Chargers offense emphasizing the pass. I don't like the inconsistency, and I don't like the DUIs, but I think it's early to call him a knucklehead since there's never been any other problems with the law, his coaches, insubordination, laziness, etc. I don't think I'm a knucklehead, and I could have easily been charged with multiple DUIs in my early-to-mid 20s.
Fair enough, thanks. He's a bit of an enigma to me, so your full tier bump had me wondering if you were beginning to see signs of a special player.
Well, yeah, the big bump came before the DUI stories, so they certainly didn't make me feel all warm and comfortable afterward. I do like his long-term potential a lot. I don't like the inconsistency, but it's just as much a matter of the guys at the bottom of that tier being kind of weak at the moment.

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What I am looking for is the guys like Ryan Grant of last year. He should have been sold during the offseason (even after the draft since GB didn't really take a RB that would challenge him). On the "buy low" side, I would say someone like Calvin Johnson, Roddy White, or Chris Johnson. Even a Thomas Jones (who could have been had for a song and was very valuable in start 3 RB leagues).

After the 2003 season, I had Julius Jones and Kevin Jones on one of my dynasty rosters. Both of those guys are near worthless in FF leagues right now, but that wasn't the case at the time. They were consensus top 3-4 rookie picks who had shown serious flashes of talent during their rookie seasons. Both guys were ranked as consensus top 10 dynasty RBs. Should I have sold high? Of course, but it's a lot tougher to make that call when you're the one sitting there with two 22 year old RBs who look like future stars. You tend to want to keep guys like that. How was I to know that they had both already peaked?
Maybe but the following years showed the same trend. RB aren't reliable and rookies even less. Trading rookie RB who performed well in their first season would reward you more often then not IMO. Of course there is a few exception. (ADP, MJD). Not sure who is the exception in this year class but its likely a few of them have already peaked.
I don't disagree.

The flipside is that you might want to buy rookie RBs who didn't perform well in their first season assuming that you have faith in their talent.

Opportunity is a huge component of success. If you look at this year's top three rookie RBs, one thing that jumps out is that all of them stepped into a great opportunity. Forte only had to compete with a broken down Kevin Jones and a mediocre Adrian Peterson. Slaton only had to compete with a broken down Ahman Green and an injured Chris Brown. Chris Johnson only had to compete with a mediocre (or worse) LenDale White and a draft bust Chris Henry. These three rookies all had clear paths to significant immediate playing time, which allowed them to put up some stats and accumulate hype.

Then look at at Jonathan Stewart, Felix Jones, and Tashard Choice. All of these guys played well when given opportunities, but none of them had a clear path to significant immediate playing time. Stewart had to compete with DeAngelo Williams. Felix Jones and Tashard Choice had to compete with Marion Barber. These three rookies all flashed intriguing talent, but they didn't produce consistently useful FF numbers and were thus irrelevant in many leagues.

What if you flipped the situations? What if Tashard Choice was on the Texans, Felix Jones was on the Titans, and Jonathan Stewart was on the Bears? What if Chris Johnson and Steve Slaton were on the Cowboys and Matt Forte was on the Panthers? My guess is that people would be very high on Choice, Felix, and Stewart. People would be intrigued by Slaton, CJ, and Forte, but they wouldn't rank them as elite dynasty backs. Why? Well, it's a matter of awareness.

You can think of a player like Felix Jones or Jonathan Stewart as hidden. They played well, but their value remains hidden because they didn't get enough opportunities to make their talent obvious. On the flipside, Matt Forte, Chris Johnson, and Steve Slaton are exposed. They played well and got enough opportunities to expose their talent, so their value is no longer hidden.

In general, an exposed player is more likely to be overvalued than a hidden player. Look at Anthony Thomas. He was a mediocre talent who landed in a talent void and produced a string of decent games. During that same rookie season, Deuce McAllister was sitting on the bench behind Ricky Williams. Hindsight tells us that Deuce was clearly the more talented back, but A-Train was higher on everyone's board after their first year in the league.

One of the dirty little secrets of this hobby is that virtually any RB on an NFL roster can produce decent stats if he gets 15-20 touches per game. Ladell Betts, Reuben Droughns, Justin Fargas, Chester Taylor, Mewelde Moore, Peyton Hillis, Derrick Ward, Pierre Thomas, etc, etc, etc. Yet whenever a rookie puts up decent stats in a starting role, he's hailed as a top 10 dynasty back. It happens literally every year around here. Sometimes it's deserved (ADP, LT) and sometimes it's not (Julius, KJ, A-Train). The problem is that all of these instantly productive backs accumulate mega hype and are picked in the top 20 of dynasty drafts after their rookie season. There's no margin for error when you take them that high. You're paying full price for the upside without factoring in the risk.

The beauty of rookie "busts" like Shaun Alexander, Larry Johnson, Deuce McAllister, and DeAngelo Williams is that you can get the same type of talent at a reduced cost simply because their lack of opportunities keeps their value hidden. I think Jonathan Stewart is the most talented RB in this draft class, but you can get him for a fraction of the cost of Chris Johnson. I think it's entirely possible that Felix Jones is better than Steve Slaton, but his price tag is much lower. I think Rashard Mendenhall might be better than Matt Forte, but you'd be laughed out of the room if you made that trade.

I'm not opposed to paying a premium for an instant star like Adrian Peterson or Eddie Royal. Sometimes those guys are the real deal, but often times you can find players with similar ability and a lower price tag. It's usually these hidden players who offer the best risk/reward proposition.

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What I am looking for is the guys like Ryan Grant of last year. He should have been sold during the offseason (even after the draft since GB didn't really take a RB that would challenge him). On the "buy low" side, I would say someone like Calvin Johnson, Roddy White, or Chris Johnson. Even a Thomas Jones (who could have been had for a song and was very valuable in start 3 RB leagues).

After the 2003 season, I had Julius Jones and Kevin Jones on one of my dynasty rosters. Both of those guys are near worthless in FF leagues right now, but that wasn't the case at the time. They were consensus top 3-4 rookie picks who had shown serious flashes of talent during their rookie seasons. Both guys were ranked as consensus top 10 dynasty RBs. Should I have sold high? Of course, but it's a lot tougher to make that call when you're the one sitting there with two 22 year old RBs who look like future stars. You tend to want to keep guys like that. How was I to know that they had both already peaked?
Maybe but the following years showed the same trend. RB aren't reliable and rookies even less. Trading rookie RB who performed well in their first season would reward you more often then not IMO. Of course there is a few exception. (ADP, MJD). Not sure who is the exception in this year class but its likely a few of them have already peaked.
I don't disagree.

The flipside is that you might want to buy rookie RBs who didn't perform well in their first season assuming that you have faith in their talent.

Opportunity is a huge component of success. If you look at this year's top three rookie RBs, one thing that jumps out is that all of them stepped into a great opportunity. Forte only had to compete with a broken down Kevin Jones and a mediocre Adrian Peterson. Slaton only had to compete with a broken down Ahman Green and an injured Chris Brown. Chris Johnson only had to compete with a mediocre (or worse) LenDale White and a draft bust Chris Henry. These three rookies all had clear paths to significant immediate playing time, which allowed them to put up some stats and accumulate hype.

Then look at at Jonathan Stewart, Felix Jones, and Tashard Choice. All of these guys played well when given opportunities, but none of them had a clear path to significant immediate playing time. Stewart had to compete with DeAngelo Williams. Felix Jones and Tashard Choice had to compete with Marion Barber. These three rookies all flashed intriguing talent, but they didn't produce consistently useful FF numbers and were thus irrelevant in many leagues.

What if you flipped the situations? What if Tashard Choice was on the Texans, Felix Jones was on the Titans, and Jonathan Stewart was on the Bears? What if Chris Johnson and Steve Slaton were on the Cowboys and Matt Forte was on the Panthers? My guess is that people would be very high on Choice, Felix, and Stewart. People would be intrigued by Slaton, CJ, and Forte, but they wouldn't rank them as elite dynasty backs. Why? Well, it's a matter of awareness.

You can think of a player like Felix Jones or Jonathan Stewart as hidden. They played well, but their value remains hidden because they didn't get enough opportunities to make their talent obvious. On the flipside, Matt Forte, Chris Johnson, and Steve Slaton are exposed. They played well and got enough opportunities to expose their talent, so their value is no longer hidden.

In general, an exposed player is more likely to be overvalued than a hidden player. Look at Anthony Thomas. He was a mediocre talent who landed in a talent void and produced a string of decent games. During that same rookie season, Deuce McAllister was sitting on the bench behind Ricky Williams. Hindsight tells us that Deuce was clearly the more talented back, but A-Train was higher on everyone's board after their first year in the league.

One of the dirty little secrets of this hobby is that virtually any RB on an NFL roster can produce decent stats if he gets 15-20 touches per game. Ladell Betts, Reuben Droughns, Justin Fargas, Chester Taylor, Mewelde Moore, Peyton Hillis, Derrick Ward, Pierre Thomas, etc, etc, etc. Yet whenever a rookie puts up decent stats in a starting role, he's hailed as a top 10 dynasty back. It happens literally every year around here. Sometimes it's deserved (ADP, LT) and sometimes it's not (Julius, KJ, A-Train). The problem is that all of these instantly productive backs accumulate mega hype and are picked in the top 20 of dynasty drafts after their rookie season. There's no margin for error when you take them that high. You're paying full price for the upside without factoring in the risk.

The beauty of rookie "busts" like Shaun Alexander, Larry Johnson, Deuce McAllister, and DeAngelo Williams is that you can get the same type of talent at a reduced cost simply because their lack of opportunities keeps their value hidden. I think Jonathan Stewart is the most talented RB in this draft class, but you can get him for a fraction of the cost of Chris Johnson. I think it's entirely possible that Felix Jones is better than Steve Slaton, but his price tag is much lower. I think Rashard Mendenhall might be better than Matt Forte, but you'd be laughed out of the room if you made that trade.

I'm not opposed to paying a premium for an instant star like Adrian Peterson or Eddie Royal. Sometimes those guys are the real deal, but often times you can find players with similar ability and a lower price tag. It's usually these hidden players who offer the best risk/reward proposition.

Great post EBF. We often get caught up in rookie hype, but the true value often lies with talented players who have yet to get an opportunity to produce.

BTW, not sure Stewart is a fabulous bargain right now. Most owners still want a steep price for him, not quite as much as CJ, but fairly close. Forte is the guy who probably costs the most out of the rookie class right now.

What about McFadden? His value has absolutely plummeted.

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The flipside is that you might want to buy rookie RBs who didn't perform well in their first season assuming that you have faith in their talent. Opportunity is a huge component of success. If you look at this year's top three rookie RBs, one thing that jumps out is that all of them stepped into a great opportunity. Forte only had to compete with a broken down Kevin Jones and a mediocre Adrian Peterson. Slaton only had to compete with a broken down Ahman Green and an injured Chris Brown. Chris Johnson only had to compete with a mediocre (or worse) LenDale White and a draft bust Chris Henry. These three rookies all had clear paths to significant immediate playing time, which allowed them to put up some stats and accumulate hype. Then look at at Jonathan Stewart, Felix Jones, and Tashard Choice. All of these guys played well when given opportunities, but none of them had a clear path to significant immediate playing time. Stewart had to compete with DeAngelo Williams. Felix Jones and Tashard Choice had to compete with Marion Barber. These three rookies all flashed intriguing talent, but they didn't produce consistently useful FF numbers and were thus irrelevant in many leagues. What if you flipped the situations? What if Tashard Choice was on the Texans, Felix Jones was on the Titans, and Jonathan Stewart was on the Bears? What if Chris Johnson and Steve Slaton were on the Cowboys and Matt Forte was on the Panthers? My guess is that people would be very high on Choice, Felix, and Stewart. People would be intrigued by Slaton, CJ, and Forte, but they wouldn't rank them as elite dynasty backs. Why? Well, it's a matter of awareness. You can think of a player like Felix Jones or Jonathan Stewart as hidden. They played well, but their value remains hidden because they didn't get enough opportunities to make their talent obvious. On the flipside, Matt Forte, Chris Johnson, and Steve Slaton are exposed. They played well and got enough opportunities to expose their talent, so their value is no longer hidden. In general, an exposed player is more likely to be overvalued than a hidden player. Look at Anthony Thomas. He was a mediocre talent who landed in a talent void and produced a string of decent games. During that same rookie season, Deuce McAllister was sitting on the bench behind Ricky Williams. Hindsight tells us that Deuce was clearly the more talented back, but A-Train was higher on everyone's board after their first year in the league. One of the dirty little secrets of this hobby is that virtually any RB on an NFL roster can produce decent stats if he gets 15-20 touches per game. Ladell Betts, Reuben Droughns, Justin Fargas, Chester Taylor, Mewelde Moore, Peyton Hillis, Derrick Ward, Pierre Thomas, etc, etc, etc. Yet whenever a rookie puts up decent stats in a starting role, he's hailed as a top 10 dynasty back. It happens literally every year around here. Sometimes it's deserved (ADP, LT) and sometimes it's not (Julius, KJ, A-Train). The problem is that all of these instantly productive backs accumulate mega hype and are picked in the top 20 of dynasty drafts after their rookie season. There's no margin for error when you take them that high. You're paying full price for the upside without factoring in the risk. The beauty of rookie "busts" like Shaun Alexander, Larry Johnson, Deuce McAllister, and DeAngelo Williams is that you can get the same type of talent at a reduced cost simply because their lack of opportunities keeps their value hidden. I think Jonathan Stewart is the most talented RB in this draft class, but you can get him for a fraction of the cost of Chris Johnson. I think it's entirely possible that Felix Jones is better than Steve Slaton, but his price tag is much lower. I think Rashard Mendenhall might be better than Matt Forte, but you'd be laughed out of the room if you made that trade. I'm not opposed to paying a premium for an instant star like Adrian Peterson or Eddie Royal. Sometimes those guys are the real deal, but often times you can find players with similar ability and a lower price tag. It's usually these hidden players who offer the best risk/reward proposition.

:wub:

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What I am looking for is the guys like Ryan Grant of last year. He should have been sold during the offseason (even after the draft since GB didn't really take a RB that would challenge him). On the "buy low" side, I would say someone like Calvin Johnson, Roddy White, or Chris Johnson. Even a Thomas Jones (who could have been had for a song and was very valuable in start 3 RB leagues).

After the 2003 season, I had Julius Jones and Kevin Jones on one of my dynasty rosters. Both of those guys are near worthless in FF leagues right now, but that wasn't the case at the time. They were consensus top 3-4 rookie picks who had shown serious flashes of talent during their rookie seasons. Both guys were ranked as consensus top 10 dynasty RBs. Should I have sold high? Of course, but it's a lot tougher to make that call when you're the one sitting there with two 22 year old RBs who look like future stars. You tend to want to keep guys like that. How was I to know that they had both already peaked?
Maybe but the following years showed the same trend. RB aren't reliable and rookies even less. Trading rookie RB who performed well in their first season would reward you more often then not IMO. Of course there is a few exception. (ADP, MJD). Not sure who is the exception in this year class but its likely a few of them have already peaked.
I don't disagree.

The flipside is that you might want to buy rookie RBs who didn't perform well in their first season assuming that you have faith in their talent.

Opportunity is a huge component of success. If you look at this year's top three rookie RBs, one thing that jumps out is that all of them stepped into a great opportunity. Forte only had to compete with a broken down Kevin Jones and a mediocre Adrian Peterson. Slaton only had to compete with a broken down Ahman Green and an injured Chris Brown. Chris Johnson only had to compete with a mediocre (or worse) LenDale White and a draft bust Chris Henry. These three rookies all had clear paths to significant immediate playing time, which allowed them to put up some stats and accumulate hype.

Then look at at Jonathan Stewart, Felix Jones, and Tashard Choice. All of these guys played well when given opportunities, but none of them had a clear path to significant immediate playing time. Stewart had to compete with DeAngelo Williams. Felix Jones and Tashard Choice had to compete with Marion Barber. These three rookies all flashed intriguing talent, but they didn't produce consistently useful FF numbers and were thus irrelevant in many leagues.

What if you flipped the situations? What if Tashard Choice was on the Texans, Felix Jones was on the Titans, and Jonathan Stewart was on the Bears? What if Chris Johnson and Steve Slaton were on the Cowboys and Matt Forte was on the Panthers? My guess is that people would be very high on Choice, Felix, and Stewart. People would be intrigued by Slaton, CJ, and Forte, but they wouldn't rank them as elite dynasty backs. Why? Well, it's a matter of awareness.

You can think of a player like Felix Jones or Jonathan Stewart as hidden. They played well, but their value remains hidden because they didn't get enough opportunities to make their talent obvious. On the flipside, Matt Forte, Chris Johnson, and Steve Slaton are exposed. They played well and got enough opportunities to expose their talent, so their value is no longer hidden.

In general, an exposed player is more likely to be overvalued than a hidden player. Look at Anthony Thomas. He was a mediocre talent who landed in a talent void and produced a string of decent games. During that same rookie season, Deuce McAllister was sitting on the bench behind Ricky Williams. Hindsight tells us that Deuce was clearly the more talented back, but A-Train was higher on everyone's board after their first year in the league.

One of the dirty little secrets of this hobby is that virtually any RB on an NFL roster can produce decent stats if he gets 15-20 touches per game. Ladell Betts, Reuben Droughns, Justin Fargas, Chester Taylor, Mewelde Moore, Peyton Hillis, Derrick Ward, Pierre Thomas, etc, etc, etc. Yet whenever a rookie puts up decent stats in a starting role, he's hailed as a top 10 dynasty back. It happens literally every year around here. Sometimes it's deserved (ADP, LT) and sometimes it's not (Julius, KJ, A-Train). The problem is that all of these instantly productive backs accumulate mega hype and are picked in the top 20 of dynasty drafts after their rookie season. There's no margin for error when you take them that high. You're paying full price for the upside without factoring in the risk.

The beauty of rookie "busts" like Shaun Alexander, Larry Johnson, Deuce McAllister, and DeAngelo Williams is that you can get the same type of talent at a reduced cost simply because their lack of opportunities keeps their value hidden. I think Jonathan Stewart is the most talented RB in this draft class, but you can get him for a fraction of the cost of Chris Johnson. I think it's entirely possible that Felix Jones is better than Steve Slaton, but his price tag is much lower. I think Rashard Mendenhall might be better than Matt Forte, but you'd be laughed out of the room if you made that trade.

I'm not opposed to paying a premium for an instant star like Adrian Peterson or Eddie Royal. Sometimes those guys are the real deal, but often times you can find players with similar ability and a lower price tag. It's usually these hidden players who offer the best risk/reward proposition.

Swap Mcfadden for Mendenhall, and Calvin Johnson for Royal, other than that :thumbup:

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What I am looking for is the guys like Ryan Grant of last year. He should have been sold during the offseason (even after the draft since GB didn't really take a RB that would challenge him). On the "buy low" side, I would say someone like Calvin Johnson, Roddy White, or Chris Johnson. Even a Thomas Jones (who could have been had for a song and was very valuable in start 3 RB leagues).

After the 2003 season, I had Julius Jones and Kevin Jones on one of my dynasty rosters. Both of those guys are near worthless in FF leagues right now, but that wasn't the case at the time. They were consensus top 3-4 rookie picks who had shown serious flashes of talent during their rookie seasons. Both guys were ranked as consensus top 10 dynasty RBs. Should I have sold high? Of course, but it's a lot tougher to make that call when you're the one sitting there with two 22 year old RBs who look like future stars. You tend to want to keep guys like that. How was I to know that they had both already peaked?
Maybe but the following years showed the same trend. RB aren't reliable and rookies even less. Trading rookie RB who performed well in their first season would reward you more often then not IMO. Of course there is a few exception. (ADP, MJD). Not sure who is the exception in this year class but its likely a few of them have already peaked.
I don't disagree.

The flipside is that you might want to buy rookie RBs who didn't perform well in their first season assuming that you have faith in their talent.

Opportunity is a huge component of success. If you look at this year's top three rookie RBs, one thing that jumps out is that all of them stepped into a great opportunity. Forte only had to compete with a broken down Kevin Jones and a mediocre Adrian Peterson. Slaton only had to compete with a broken down Ahman Green and an injured Chris Brown. Chris Johnson only had to compete with a mediocre (or worse) LenDale White and a draft bust Chris Henry. These three rookies all had clear paths to significant immediate playing time, which allowed them to put up some stats and accumulate hype.

Then look at at Jonathan Stewart, Felix Jones, and Tashard Choice. All of these guys played well when given opportunities, but none of them had a clear path to significant immediate playing time. Stewart had to compete with DeAngelo Williams. Felix Jones and Tashard Choice had to compete with Marion Barber. These three rookies all flashed intriguing talent, but they didn't produce consistently useful FF numbers and were thus irrelevant in many leagues.

What if you flipped the situations? What if Tashard Choice was on the Texans, Felix Jones was on the Titans, and Jonathan Stewart was on the Bears? What if Chris Johnson and Steve Slaton were on the Cowboys and Matt Forte was on the Panthers? My guess is that people would be very high on Choice, Felix, and Stewart. People would be intrigued by Slaton, CJ, and Forte, but they wouldn't rank them as elite dynasty backs. Why? Well, it's a matter of awareness.

You can think of a player like Felix Jones or Jonathan Stewart as hidden. They played well, but their value remains hidden because they didn't get enough opportunities to make their talent obvious. On the flipside, Matt Forte, Chris Johnson, and Steve Slaton are exposed. They played well and got enough opportunities to expose their talent, so their value is no longer hidden.

In general, an exposed player is more likely to be overvalued than a hidden player. Look at Anthony Thomas. He was a mediocre talent who landed in a talent void and produced a string of decent games. During that same rookie season, Deuce McAllister was sitting on the bench behind Ricky Williams. Hindsight tells us that Deuce was clearly the more talented back, but A-Train was higher on everyone's board after their first year in the league.

One of the dirty little secrets of this hobby is that virtually any RB on an NFL roster can produce decent stats if he gets 15-20 touches per game. Ladell Betts, Reuben Droughns, Justin Fargas, Chester Taylor, Mewelde Moore, Peyton Hillis, Derrick Ward, Pierre Thomas, etc, etc, etc. Yet whenever a rookie puts up decent stats in a starting role, he's hailed as a top 10 dynasty back. It happens literally every year around here. Sometimes it's deserved (ADP, LT) and sometimes it's not (Julius, KJ, A-Train). The problem is that all of these instantly productive backs accumulate mega hype and are picked in the top 20 of dynasty drafts after their rookie season. There's no margin for error when you take them that high. You're paying full price for the upside without factoring in the risk.

The beauty of rookie "busts" like Shaun Alexander, Larry Johnson, Deuce McAllister, and DeAngelo Williams is that you can get the same type of talent at a reduced cost simply because their lack of opportunities keeps their value hidden. I think Jonathan Stewart is the most talented RB in this draft class, but you can get him for a fraction of the cost of Chris Johnson. I think it's entirely possible that Felix Jones is better than Steve Slaton, but his price tag is much lower. I think Rashard Mendenhall might be better than Matt Forte, but you'd be laughed out of the room if you made that trade.

I'm not opposed to paying a premium for an instant star like Adrian Peterson or Eddie Royal. Sometimes those guys are the real deal, but often times you can find players with similar ability and a lower price tag. It's usually these hidden players who offer the best risk/reward proposition.

Wow. Thanks for taking the time to write something that in depth and helpful. Great stuff. One of the reasons this thread is the best on the forum.

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One of the dirty little secrets of this hobby is that virtually any RB on an NFL roster can produce decent stats if he gets 15-20 touches per game. Ladell Betts, Reuben Droughns, Justin Fargas, Chester Taylor, Mewelde Moore, Peyton Hillis, Derrick Ward, Pierre Thomas, etc, etc, etc.

Great post, EBF. This point in particular jumps out at me, as I've employed a RB2-by-committee approach a few times with pleasing success. It takes a lot of willpower to avoid overpaying for a RB when you really need a new young horse in dynasty, but often times you can get away with monitoring the waiver wire (depending on league size) like a hawk and grabbing guys that will give you several weeks of spot duty. Presumably by avoiding overpaying for RBs, a few of your QB and WR pet projects (Matt Jones, for instance) that you would have traded develop on your roster instead, giving your franchise much more value to play with than you would have by shipping them out early for a volatile young RB.

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One of the dirty little secrets of this hobby is that virtually any RB on an NFL roster can produce decent stats if he gets 15-20 touches per game. Ladell Betts, Reuben Droughns, Justin Fargas, Chester Taylor, Mewelde Moore, Peyton Hillis, Derrick Ward, Pierre Thomas, etc, etc, etc.

Great post, EBF. This point in particular jumps out at me, as I've employed a RB2-by-committee approach a few times with pleasing success. It takes a lot of willpower to avoid overpaying for a RB when you really need a new young horse in dynasty, but often times you can get away with monitoring the waiver wire (depending on league size) like a hawk and grabbing guys that will give you several weeks of spot duty. Presumably by avoiding overpaying for RBs, a few of your QB and WR pet projects (Matt Jones, for instance) that you would have traded develop on your roster instead, giving your franchise much more value to play with than you would have by shipping them out early for a volatile young RB.
This is my strategy in most dynasty leagues. My goal is to acquire stud WRs and a stud QB because they are far more consistent from year to year. The volatility of the RB position makes it too risky for me to invest so much in.As an example, I made it to one title game this year and started two RBs that I picked up off the waiver wire that week. I lost, but still....

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What I am looking for is the guys like Ryan Grant of last year. He should have been sold during the offseason (even after the draft since GB didn't really take a RB that would challenge him). On the "buy low" side, I would say someone like Calvin Johnson, Roddy White, or Chris Johnson. Even a Thomas Jones (who could have been had for a song and was very valuable in start 3 RB leagues).

After the 2003 season, I had Julius Jones and Kevin Jones on one of my dynasty rosters. Both of those guys are near worthless in FF leagues right now, but that wasn't the case at the time. They were consensus top 3-4 rookie picks who had shown serious flashes of talent during their rookie seasons. Both guys were ranked as consensus top 10 dynasty RBs. Should I have sold high? Of course, but it's a lot tougher to make that call when you're the one sitting there with two 22 year old RBs who look like future stars. You tend to want to keep guys like that. How was I to know that they had both already peaked?
Maybe but the following years showed the same trend. RB aren't reliable and rookies even less. Trading rookie RB who performed well in their first season would reward you more often then not IMO. Of course there is a few exception. (ADP, MJD). Not sure who is the exception in this year class but its likely a few of them have already peaked.
I don't disagree.

The flipside is that you might want to buy rookie RBs who didn't perform well in their first season assuming that you have faith in their talent.

Opportunity is a huge component of success. If you look at this year's top three rookie RBs, one thing that jumps out is that all of them stepped into a great opportunity. Forte only had to compete with a broken down Kevin Jones and a mediocre Adrian Peterson. Slaton only had to compete with a broken down Ahman Green and an injured Chris Brown. Chris Johnson only had to compete with a mediocre (or worse) LenDale White and a draft bust Chris Henry. These three rookies all had clear paths to significant immediate playing time, which allowed them to put up some stats and accumulate hype.

Then look at at Jonathan Stewart, Felix Jones, and Tashard Choice. All of these guys played well when given opportunities, but none of them had a clear path to significant immediate playing time. Stewart had to compete with DeAngelo Williams. Felix Jones and Tashard Choice had to compete with Marion Barber. These three rookies all flashed intriguing talent, but they didn't produce consistently useful FF numbers and were thus irrelevant in many leagues.

What if you flipped the situations? What if Tashard Choice was on the Texans, Felix Jones was on the Titans, and Jonathan Stewart was on the Bears? What if Chris Johnson and Steve Slaton were on the Cowboys and Matt Forte was on the Panthers? My guess is that people would be very high on Choice, Felix, and Stewart. People would be intrigued by Slaton, CJ, and Forte, but they wouldn't rank them as elite dynasty backs. Why? Well, it's a matter of awareness.

You can think of a player like Felix Jones or Jonathan Stewart as hidden. They played well, but their value remains hidden because they didn't get enough opportunities to make their talent obvious. On the flipside, Matt Forte, Chris Johnson, and Steve Slaton are exposed. They played well and got enough opportunities to expose their talent, so their value is no longer hidden.

In general, an exposed player is more likely to be overvalued than a hidden player. Look at Anthony Thomas. He was a mediocre talent who landed in a talent void and produced a string of decent games. During that same rookie season, Deuce McAllister was sitting on the bench behind Ricky Williams. Hindsight tells us that Deuce was clearly the more talented back, but A-Train was higher on everyone's board after their first year in the league.

One of the dirty little secrets of this hobby is that virtually any RB on an NFL roster can produce decent stats if he gets 15-20 touches per game. Ladell Betts, Reuben Droughns, Justin Fargas, Chester Taylor, Mewelde Moore, Peyton Hillis, Derrick Ward, Pierre Thomas, etc, etc, etc. Yet whenever a rookie puts up decent stats in a starting role, he's hailed as a top 10 dynasty back. It happens literally every year around here. Sometimes it's deserved (ADP, LT) and sometimes it's not (Julius, KJ, A-Train). The problem is that all of these instantly productive backs accumulate mega hype and are picked in the top 20 of dynasty drafts after their rookie season. There's no margin for error when you take them that high. You're paying full price for the upside without factoring in the risk.

The beauty of rookie "busts" like Shaun Alexander, Larry Johnson, Deuce McAllister, and DeAngelo Williams is that you can get the same type of talent at a reduced cost simply because their lack of opportunities keeps their value hidden. I think Jonathan Stewart is the most talented RB in this draft class, but you can get him for a fraction of the cost of Chris Johnson. I think it's entirely possible that Felix Jones is better than Steve Slaton, but his price tag is much lower. I think Rashard Mendenhall might be better than Matt Forte, but you'd be laughed out of the room if you made that trade.

I'm not opposed to paying a premium for an instant star like Adrian Peterson or Eddie Royal. Sometimes those guys are the real deal, but often times you can find players with similar ability and a lower price tag. It's usually these hidden players who offer the best risk/reward proposition.

:hifive:

Put this in the fantasy bible.

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What I am looking for is the guys like Ryan Grant of last year. He should have been sold during the offseason (even after the draft since GB didn't really take a RB that would challenge him). On the "buy low" side, I would say someone like Calvin Johnson, Roddy White, or Chris Johnson. Even a Thomas Jones (who could have been had for a song and was very valuable in start 3 RB leagues).

After the 2003 season, I had Julius Jones and Kevin Jones on one of my dynasty rosters. Both of those guys are near worthless in FF leagues right now, but that wasn't the case at the time. They were consensus top 3-4 rookie picks who had shown serious flashes of talent during their rookie seasons. Both guys were ranked as consensus top 10 dynasty RBs. Should I have sold high? Of course, but it's a lot tougher to make that call when you're the one sitting there with two 22 year old RBs who look like future stars. You tend to want to keep guys like that. How was I to know that they had both already peaked?
Maybe but the following years showed the same trend. RB aren't reliable and rookies even less. Trading rookie RB who performed well in their first season would reward you more often then not IMO. Of course there is a few exception. (ADP, MJD). Not sure who is the exception in this year class but its likely a few of them have already peaked.
I don't disagree.

The flipside is that you might want to buy rookie RBs who didn't perform well in their first season assuming that you have faith in their talent.

Opportunity is a huge component of success. If you look at this year's top three rookie RBs, one thing that jumps out is that all of them stepped into a great opportunity. Forte only had to compete with a broken down Kevin Jones and a mediocre Adrian Peterson. Slaton only had to compete with a broken down Ahman Green and an injured Chris Brown. Chris Johnson only had to compete with a mediocre (or worse) LenDale White and a draft bust Chris Henry. These three rookies all had clear paths to significant immediate playing time, which allowed them to put up some stats and accumulate hype.

Then look at at Jonathan Stewart, Felix Jones, and Tashard Choice. All of these guys played well when given opportunities, but none of them had a clear path to significant immediate playing time. Stewart had to compete with DeAngelo Williams. Felix Jones and Tashard Choice had to compete with Marion Barber. These three rookies all flashed intriguing talent, but they didn't produce consistently useful FF numbers and were thus irrelevant in many leagues.

What if you flipped the situations? What if Tashard Choice was on the Texans, Felix Jones was on the Titans, and Jonathan Stewart was on the Bears? What if Chris Johnson and Steve Slaton were on the Cowboys and Matt Forte was on the Panthers? My guess is that people would be very high on Choice, Felix, and Stewart. People would be intrigued by Slaton, CJ, and Forte, but they wouldn't rank them as elite dynasty backs. Why? Well, it's a matter of awareness.

You can think of a player like Felix Jones or Jonathan Stewart as hidden. They played well, but their value remains hidden because they didn't get enough opportunities to make their talent obvious. On the flipside, Matt Forte, Chris Johnson, and Steve Slaton are exposed. They played well and got enough opportunities to expose their talent, so their value is no longer hidden.

In general, an exposed player is more likely to be overvalued than a hidden player. Look at Anthony Thomas. He was a mediocre talent who landed in a talent void and produced a string of decent games. During that same rookie season, Deuce McAllister was sitting on the bench behind Ricky Williams. Hindsight tells us that Deuce was clearly the more talented back, but A-Train was higher on everyone's board after their first year in the league.

One of the dirty little secrets of this hobby is that virtually any RB on an NFL roster can produce decent stats if he gets 15-20 touches per game. Ladell Betts, Reuben Droughns, Justin Fargas, Chester Taylor, Mewelde Moore, Peyton Hillis, Derrick Ward, Pierre Thomas, etc, etc, etc. Yet whenever a rookie puts up decent stats in a starting role, he's hailed as a top 10 dynasty back. It happens literally every year around here. Sometimes it's deserved (ADP, LT) and sometimes it's not (Julius, KJ, A-Train). The problem is that all of these instantly productive backs accumulate mega hype and are picked in the top 20 of dynasty drafts after their rookie season. There's no margin for error when you take them that high. You're paying full price for the upside without factoring in the risk.

The beauty of rookie "busts" like Shaun Alexander, Larry Johnson, Deuce McAllister, and DeAngelo Williams is that you can get the same type of talent at a reduced cost simply because their lack of opportunities keeps their value hidden. I think Jonathan Stewart is the most talented RB in this draft class, but you can get him for a fraction of the cost of Chris Johnson. I think it's entirely possible that Felix Jones is better than Steve Slaton, but his price tag is much lower. I think Rashard Mendenhall might be better than Matt Forte, but you'd be laughed out of the room if you made that trade.

I'm not opposed to paying a premium for an instant star like Adrian Peterson or Eddie Royal. Sometimes those guys are the real deal, but often times you can find players with similar ability and a lower price tag. It's usually these hidden players who offer the best risk/reward proposition.

Great post EBF. We often get caught up in rookie hype, but the true value often lies with talented players who have yet to get an opportunity to produce.

BTW, not sure Stewart is a fabulous bargain right now. Most owners still want a steep price for him, not quite as much as CJ, but fairly close. Forte is the guy who probably costs the most out of the rookie class right now.

What about McFadden? His value has absolutely plummeted.

What he said. Great post.

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What I am looking for is the guys like Ryan Grant of last year. He should have been sold during the offseason (even after the draft since GB didn't really take a RB that would challenge him). On the "buy low" side, I would say someone like Calvin Johnson, Roddy White, or Chris Johnson. Even a Thomas Jones (who could have been had for a song and was very valuable in start 3 RB leagues).

After the 2003 season, I had Julius Jones and Kevin Jones on one of my dynasty rosters. Both of those guys are near worthless in FF leagues right now, but that wasn't the case at the time. They were consensus top 3-4 rookie picks who had shown serious flashes of talent during their rookie seasons. Both guys were ranked as consensus top 10 dynasty RBs. Should I have sold high? Of course, but it's a lot tougher to make that call when you're the one sitting there with two 22 year old RBs who look like future stars. You tend to want to keep guys like that. How was I to know that they had both already peaked?
Maybe but the following years showed the same trend. RB aren't reliable and rookies even less. Trading rookie RB who performed well in their first season would reward you more often then not IMO. Of course there is a few exception. (ADP, MJD). Not sure who is the exception in this year class but its likely a few of them have already peaked.
I don't disagree.

The flipside is that you might want to buy rookie RBs who didn't perform well in their first season assuming that you have faith in their talent.

Opportunity is a huge component of success. If you look at this year's top three rookie RBs, one thing that jumps out is that all of them stepped into a great opportunity. Forte only had to compete with a broken down Kevin Jones and a mediocre Adrian Peterson. Slaton only had to compete with a broken down Ahman Green and an injured Chris Brown. Chris Johnson only had to compete with a mediocre (or worse) LenDale White and a draft bust Chris Henry. These three rookies all had clear paths to significant immediate playing time, which allowed them to put up some stats and accumulate hype.

Then look at at Jonathan Stewart, Felix Jones, and Tashard Choice. All of these guys played well when given opportunities, but none of them had a clear path to significant immediate playing time. Stewart had to compete with DeAngelo Williams. Felix Jones and Tashard Choice had to compete with Marion Barber. These three rookies all flashed intriguing talent, but they didn't produce consistently useful FF numbers and were thus irrelevant in many leagues.

What if you flipped the situations? What if Tashard Choice was on the Texans, Felix Jones was on the Titans, and Jonathan Stewart was on the Bears? What if Chris Johnson and Steve Slaton were on the Cowboys and Matt Forte was on the Panthers? My guess is that people would be very high on Choice, Felix, and Stewart. People would be intrigued by Slaton, CJ, and Forte, but they wouldn't rank them as elite dynasty backs. Why? Well, it's a matter of awareness.

You can think of a player like Felix Jones or Jonathan Stewart as hidden. They played well, but their value remains hidden because they didn't get enough opportunities to make their talent obvious. On the flipside, Matt Forte, Chris Johnson, and Steve Slaton are exposed. They played well and got enough opportunities to expose their talent, so their value is no longer hidden.

In general, an exposed player is more likely to be overvalued than a hidden player. Look at Anthony Thomas. He was a mediocre talent who landed in a talent void and produced a string of decent games. During that same rookie season, Deuce McAllister was sitting on the bench behind Ricky Williams. Hindsight tells us that Deuce was clearly the more talented back, but A-Train was higher on everyone's board after their first year in the league.

One of the dirty little secrets of this hobby is that virtually any RB on an NFL roster can produce decent stats if he gets 15-20 touches per game. Ladell Betts, Reuben Droughns, Justin Fargas, Chester Taylor, Mewelde Moore, Peyton Hillis, Derrick Ward, Pierre Thomas, etc, etc, etc. Yet whenever a rookie puts up decent stats in a starting role, he's hailed as a top 10 dynasty back. It happens literally every year around here. Sometimes it's deserved (ADP, LT) and sometimes it's not (Julius, KJ, A-Train). The problem is that all of these instantly productive backs accumulate mega hype and are picked in the top 20 of dynasty drafts after their rookie season. There's no margin for error when you take them that high. You're paying full price for the upside without factoring in the risk.

The beauty of rookie "busts" like Shaun Alexander, Larry Johnson, Deuce McAllister, and DeAngelo Williams is that you can get the same type of talent at a reduced cost simply because their lack of opportunities keeps their value hidden. I think Jonathan Stewart is the most talented RB in this draft class, but you can get him for a fraction of the cost of Chris Johnson. I think it's entirely possible that Felix Jones is better than Steve Slaton, but his price tag is much lower. I think Rashard Mendenhall might be better than Matt Forte, but you'd be laughed out of the room if you made that trade.

I'm not opposed to paying a premium for an instant star like Adrian Peterson or Eddie Royal. Sometimes those guys are the real deal, but often times you can find players with similar ability and a lower price tag. It's usually these hidden players who offer the best risk/reward proposition.

Hate to pile on, but great post.

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Great post EBF. We often get caught up in rookie hype, but the true value often lies with talented players who have yet to get an opportunity to produce. BTW, not sure Stewart is a fabulous bargain right now. Most owners still want a steep price for him, not quite as much as CJ, but fairly close. Forte is the guy who probably costs the most out of the rookie class right now.What about McFadden? His value has absolutely plummeted.

You're right about Stewart. He isn't cheap. Even though he's pretty low on the FBG dynasty rankings right now (RB21), his owners value him like a top 10-12 back and will probably even turn down someone like Westbrook. Everyone knows about Stewart because he was a first round pick and he flashed some talent this year (even if his opportunity has been somewhat limited). I still think he's a buy low candidate if you can get a nice price. IMO, his talent is on par with just about anybody in the league. If he seizes a starting role in the next few years, he can easily climb up into the Steven Jackson/Frank Gore/Michael Turner range. So even if you have to pay a RB15-RB20 price, there's still upside. If you don't want to pay a premium to get Stewart then there are definitely some other guys who offer similar upside at an even lower cost. McFadden could be one of those guys, but he was the 1.01 rookie pick in all of my leagues and he has a lot of name recognition value, so his price will still be pretty high (nevermind the fact that I'm not high on his prospects). Rashard Mendenhall and Pierre Thomas are nice pickups if you can get them at their current FBG prices. Mendenhall is ranked below some real trash on the FBG dynasty list: Jerious Norwood, Tim Hightower, LenDale White, and Jamaal Charles. I'd be doing backflips if I could trade one of those scrubs for him. Thomas is ranked higher and his value isn't nearly as hidden. Today I offered Randy Moss for Thomas and the 1.11 rookie pick in a start 1 RB PPR. I thought I was overpaying, but the other guy actually rejected the deal. :rolleyes: Pierre's value might be on the rise, but he's still worth a look if you want a good long term RB at a reasonable price. You might have more luck making a deal than I did. After that, the options become a little less exciting. Maroney, Sproles, Washington, and Choice have some upside. Derrick Ward and Kevin Jones could be worth a look.

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I don't disagree.

The flipside is that you might want to buy rookie RBs who didn't perform well in their first season assuming that you have faith in their talent.

Opportunity is a huge component of success. If you look at this year's top three rookie RBs, one thing that jumps out is that all of them stepped into a great opportunity. Forte only had to compete with a broken down Kevin Jones and a mediocre Adrian Peterson. Slaton only had to compete with a broken down Ahman Green and an injured Chris Brown. Chris Johnson only had to compete with a mediocre (or worse) LenDale White and a draft bust Chris Henry. These three rookies all had clear paths to significant immediate playing time, which allowed them to put up some stats and accumulate hype.

Then look at at Jonathan Stewart, Felix Jones, and Tashard Choice. All of these guys played well when given opportunities, but none of them had a clear path to significant immediate playing time. Stewart had to compete with DeAngelo Williams. Felix Jones and Tashard Choice had to compete with Marion Barber. These three rookies all flashed intriguing talent, but they didn't produce consistently useful FF numbers and were thus irrelevant in many leagues.

What if you flipped the situations? What if Tashard Choice was on the Texans, Felix Jones was on the Titans, and Jonathan Stewart was on the Bears? What if Chris Johnson and Steve Slaton were on the Cowboys and Matt Forte was on the Panthers? My guess is that people would be very high on Choice, Felix, and Stewart. People would be intrigued by Slaton, CJ, and Forte, but they wouldn't rank them as elite dynasty backs. Why? Well, it's a matter of awareness.

You can think of a player like Felix Jones or Jonathan Stewart as hidden. They played well, but their value remains hidden because they didn't get enough opportunities to make their talent obvious. On the flipside, Matt Forte, Chris Johnson, and Steve Slaton are exposed. They played well and got enough opportunities to expose their talent, so their value is no longer hidden.

In general, an exposed player is more likely to be overvalued than a hidden player. Look at Anthony Thomas. He was a mediocre talent who landed in a talent void and produced a string of decent games. During that same rookie season, Deuce McAllister was sitting on the bench behind Ricky Williams. Hindsight tells us that Deuce was clearly the more talented back, but A-Train was higher on everyone's board after their first year in the league.

One of the dirty little secrets of this hobby is that virtually any RB on an NFL roster can produce decent stats if he gets 15-20 touches per game. Ladell Betts, Reuben Droughns, Justin Fargas, Chester Taylor, Mewelde Moore, Peyton Hillis, Derrick Ward, Pierre Thomas, etc, etc, etc. Yet whenever a rookie puts up decent stats in a starting role, he's hailed as a top 10 dynasty back. It happens literally every year around here. Sometimes it's deserved (ADP, LT) and sometimes it's not (Julius, KJ, A-Train). The problem is that all of these instantly productive backs accumulate mega hype and are picked in the top 20 of dynasty drafts after their rookie season. There's no margin for error when you take them that high. You're paying full price for the upside without factoring in the risk.

The beauty of rookie "busts" like Shaun Alexander, Larry Johnson, Deuce McAllister, and DeAngelo Williams is that you can get the same type of talent at a reduced cost simply because their lack of opportunities keeps their value hidden. I think Jonathan Stewart is the most talented RB in this draft class, but you can get him for a fraction of the cost of Chris Johnson. I think it's entirely possible that Felix Jones is better than Steve Slaton, but his price tag is much lower. I think Rashard Mendenhall might be better than Matt Forte, but you'd be laughed out of the room if you made that trade.

I'm not opposed to paying a premium for an instant star like Adrian Peterson or Eddie Royal. Sometimes those guys are the real deal, but often times you can find players with similar ability and a lower price tag. It's usually these hidden players who offer the best risk/reward proposition.

I agree in general with this, but wanted to comment on the bolded. This is mostly true, except in the one situation where you own the player whose talent is no longer hidden. Once the talent is shown, then the owner of that player has a new kind of risk if they deal for unproven talent - the risk of player(s) acquired being an utter bust when you already know the player on your roster is not a bust.

Dealing "proven" - meaning performed this year - young players for unproven carries more downside risk than dealing for undervalued hidden players, and it can work out if they don't seem likely to repeat: dealing Michael Clayton would've been a great move, for example.

I have more confidence in Johnson & Forte being good going forward than I do of Slaton, so each person will need tofigure out how to handle things for themselves.

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I've seen Big Ben's role in the Steelers offense compared to Troy Aikman as a pedestrian fantasy QB yet a HOF-caliber NFL QB. I actually think Trent Edwards is much more similar to Troy Aikman as an NFL and fantasy QB than Roethlisberger is. I think Roethlisberger is an original.

I'll buy that. Edwards is more of a dink-and-dunker whereas Roethlisberger is liable to throw a 50 yard TD at any point in the game. But if you look at yards per attempt and QB rating, Edwards is already a lot further along than where Aikman was at this point in his development.

Aikman was a winning QB, but you wouldn't know it by looking at his stats. They're not very good at all.

I see Edwards as being closer to Hasselbeck in terms of FF value.

F&L, Roethlisberger seems to get a ton of respect around here and deservedly so. He's one of the elite QBs in the league right now. I would like to know if you still like his fantasy potential.

My chief concern about Big Ben doesn't come from his talent. Its the number of throws he makes. These are his attempts for his career.

(games played, TDs)

2008: 469 (16, 17)

2007: 404 (15, 32)

2006: 469 (15, 18)

2005: 268 (12, 17)

2004: 295 (13, 17)

If you look at the other elite QBs that are starting fantasy QBs, they are winging it way more frequently. The top six QBs in attempts all finished in the top 7 in fantasy scoring. They averaged 585 passing attempts this year. The only QB to finish highly this year without a lot of passing attempts was Philip Rivers. (478) Its not just a one season fluke with the attempts leaders being the fantasy leaders. In 2007, the top 9 QBs in scoring averaged 558 attempts (not including Big Ben). The lowest attempts by any of them was Peyton Manning with 515. Big Ben had 404 that season finishing 5th in fantasy scoring.

I know Big Ben had 32 TDs in 2007. He finished 5th among QBs just a year ago, and Rivers' 2nd place finish with just 478 attempts shows it can be done. I just don't know how he can consistently compete with the Manning, Brees, Rodgers, Cutler, McNabb and Warner level of QB when he's getting about 100 less attempts than them over the course of a season.

Big Ben may get some more attempts and more time to throw in future seasons with a better oline, but it would seem this coaching staff and offensive system will be in place for some time to come.

I don't think you need to drop him in your rankings. Where he's at seems to be about right. He just killed his owners this year with way too many bad games this year:

8 games with less than 200 yards passing

5 games without a TD

1 game with 3 or more TDs.

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Great post EBF. We often get caught up in rookie hype, but the true value often lies with talented players who have yet to get an opportunity to produce. BTW, not sure Stewart is a fabulous bargain right now. Most owners still want a steep price for him, not quite as much as CJ, but fairly close. Forte is the guy who probably costs the most out of the rookie class right now.What about McFadden? His value has absolutely plummeted.

You're right about Stewart. He isn't cheap. Even though he's pretty low on the FBG dynasty rankings right now (RB21), his owners value him like a top 10-12 back and will probably even turn down someone like Westbrook. Everyone knows about Stewart because he was a first round pick and he flashed some talent this year (even if his opportunity has been somewhat limited). I still think he's a buy low candidate if you can get a nice price. IMO, his talent is on par with just about anybody in the league. If he seizes a starting role in the next few years, he can easily climb up into the Steven Jackson/Frank Gore/Michael Turner range. So even if you have to pay a RB15-RB20 price, there's still upside. If you don't want to pay a premium to get Stewart then there are definitely some other guys who offer similar upside at an even lower cost. McFadden could be one of those guys, but he was the 1.01 rookie pick in all of my leagues and he has a lot of name recognition value, so his price will still be pretty high (nevermind the fact that I'm not high on his prospects). Rashard Mendenhall and Pierre Thomas are nice pickups if you can get them at their current FBG prices. Mendenhall is ranked below some real trash on the FBG dynasty list: Jerious Norwood, Tim Hightower, LenDale White, and Jamaal Charles. I'd be doing backflips if I could trade one of those scrubs for him. Thomas is ranked higher and his value isn't nearly as hidden. Today I offered Randy Moss for Thomas and the 1.11 rookie pick in a start 1 RB PPR. I thought I was overpaying, but the other guy actually rejected the deal. :headbang: Pierre's value might be on the rise, but he's still worth a look if you want a good long term RB at a reasonable price. You might have more luck making a deal than I did. After that, the options become a little less exciting. Maroney, Sproles, Washington, and Choice have some upside. Derrick Ward and Kevin Jones could be worth a look.
After watching the Ravens vs Titans playoff game I like the chances of Rice to be the guy next year. To me McClain does not offer enough to be the feature back. I could see the Ravens part ways with McGahee and use a RBBC with Rice as the lead dog and McClain as the bruising change of pace back, they also have Parmalee as a back up RB.I do not think Rice has lost his ability as a great inside runner with very good vision and footwork also has become a very good receiver out of the backfield. I have not seen a lot of McClain this year so maybe I'm judging a little harsh on one game :banned:

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I've seen Big Ben's role in the Steelers offense compared to Troy Aikman as a pedestrian fantasy QB yet a HOF-caliber NFL QB. I actually think Trent Edwards is much more similar to Troy Aikman as an NFL and fantasy QB than Roethlisberger is. I think Roethlisberger is an original.

I'll buy that. Edwards is more of a dink-and-dunker whereas Roethlisberger is liable to throw a 50 yard TD at any point in the game. But if you look at yards per attempt and QB rating, Edwards is already a lot further along than where Aikman was at this point in his development.

Aikman was a winning QB, but you wouldn't know it by looking at his stats. They're not very good at all.

I see Edwards as being closer to Hasselbeck in terms of FF value.

F&L, Roethlisberger seems to get a ton of respect around here and deservedly so. He's one of the elite QBs in the league right now. I would like to know if you still like his fantasy potential.

My chief concern about Big Ben doesn't come from his talent. Its the number of throws he makes. These are his attempts for his career.

(games played, TDs)

2008: 469 (16, 17)

2007: 404 (15, 32)

2006: 469 (15, 18)

2005: 268 (12, 17)

2004: 295 (13, 17)

If you look at the other elite QBs that are starting fantasy QBs, they are winging it way more frequently. The top six QBs in attempts all finished in the top 7 in fantasy scoring. They averaged 585 passing attempts this year. The only QB to finish highly this year without a lot of passing attempts was Philip Rivers. (478) Its not just a one season fluke with the attempts leaders being the fantasy leaders. In 2007, the top 9 QBs in scoring averaged 558 attempts (not including Big Ben). The lowest attempts by any of them was Peyton Manning with 515. Big Ben had 404 that season finishing 5th in fantasy scoring.

I know Big Ben had 32 TDs in 2007. He finished 5th among QBs just a year ago, and Rivers' 2nd place finish with just 478 attempts shows it can be done. I just don't know how he can consistently compete with the Manning, Brees, Rodgers, Cutler, McNabb and Warner level of QB when he's getting about 100 less attempts than them over the course of a season.

Big Ben may get some more attempts and more time to throw in future seasons with a better oline, but it would seem this coaching staff and offensive system will be in place for some time to come.

I don't think you need to drop him in your rankings. Where he's at seems to be about right. He just killed his owners this year with way too many bad games this year:

8 games with less than 200 yards passing

5 games without a TD

1 game with 3 or more TDs.

Great post, particularly the bolded. I guess the correlation between attempts and fantasy scoring is fairly obvious, but I hadn't specifically looked at it.

I think Roethlisberger tends to be overrated as a fantasy QB.

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I love visiting this thread and have F & L site saved as a favorite that I review from time to time. I know the folks that post here are always good for dynasty discussion. I have two questions:

1) Where are FootballGuys dynasty rankings?

2) In a ppr league with 0.5 for RBs and 1.0 for WRs and you can play from 2 to 4 RBs or WRs, what would be an appropriate WR to trade to acquire Chris Johnson. I see him as the heart and soul of the Titans who are and have been a run first and run second team.

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I love visiting this thread and have F & L site saved as a favorite that I review from time to time. I know the folks that post here are always good for dynasty discussion. I have two questions:

1) Where are FootballGuys dynasty rankings?

2) In a ppr league with 0.5 for RBs and 1.0 for WRs and you can play from 2 to 4 RBs or WRs, what would be an appropriate WR to trade to acquire Chris Johnson. I see him as the heart and soul of the Titans who are and have been a run first and run second team.

Dynasty Rankings

I think you're probably going to have to move a young stud WR like Jennings, Marshall, or White to even sniff at CJ.

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I love visiting this thread and have F & L site saved as a favorite that I review from time to time. I know the folks that post here are always good for dynasty discussion. I have two questions:

1) Where are FootballGuys dynasty rankings?

2) In a ppr league with 0.5 for RBs and 1.0 for WRs and you can play from 2 to 4 RBs or WRs, what would be an appropriate WR to trade to acquire Chris Johnson. I see him as the heart and soul of the Titans who are and have been a run first and run second team.

Dynasty Rankings

I think you're probably going to have to move a young stud WR like Jennings, Marshall, or White to even sniff at CJ.

Thanks for the link. It is now saved so I won't have to look for it again!

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Love the thread as well.

1) FBG Dyansty Rankings - subscriber area

2) Likely depends on where the folks that have CJ3 are, but imo you are looking at trading a top tier WR for him. Most probably have him as a top 10 dyansty RB, so likely looking at a top 10 or so dynasty WR in a 1 for 1 (since under Steve's system for number of starters, they are relatively the same).

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I love visiting this thread and have F & L site saved as a favorite that I review from time to time. I know the folks that post here are always good for dynasty discussion. I have two questions:

1) Where are FootballGuys dynasty rankings?

2) In a ppr league with 0.5 for RBs and 1.0 for WRs and you can play from 2 to 4 RBs or WRs, what would be an appropriate WR to trade to acquire Chris Johnson. I see him as the heart and soul of the Titans who are and have been a run first and run second team.

Dynasty Rankings

I think you're probably going to have to move a young stud WR like Jennings, Marshall, or White to even sniff at CJ.

I agree. Your best bet is package several lesser players, but you're going to have to anchor that package with a WR from the bottom of the top tier . . . such as the ones mentioned above.

There's no doubt Johnson is the heart and soul of the Titans offense, and his role will be similar to Westbrook's role with the Eagles. My feel on Johnson owners is that a greater percentage than normal actively targeted him when they acquired him, so he's going to be tough to buy.

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Just checked out the FBG Dynasty rankings and a little disappointed. Only one update since the middle of November. Seems like January might be a good time to review these.

:confused:

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Just checked out the FBG Dynasty rankings and a little disappointed. Only one update since the middle of November. Seems like January might be a good time to review these. :confused:

Check the individual position ratings - some more recent updates.

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Just checked out the FBG Dynasty rankings and a little disappointed. Only one update since the middle of November. Seems like January might be a good time to review these. :lmao:

Check the individual position ratings - some more recent updates.
There were a few more. Thanks for the tip.

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I offered Steve Smith for CJ in my dynasty leage and was turned down....

I'm in a keep 3 league with ADP, CJ3, Megatron, and Steve Smith.ADP and Megatron are locks, I have a long summer to decide between CJ3 and Smith... I love CJ's talent, I'm just not sold on the production.

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I offered Steve Smith for CJ in my dynasty leage and was turned down....

I'm in a keep 3 league with ADP, CJ3, Megatron, and Steve Smith.ADP and Megatron are locks, I have a long summer to decide between CJ3 and Smith... I love CJ's talent, I'm just not sold on the production.
I love Steve Smith but if you are worried about CJ3's production you should also be concerned about Smith's. Delhomme has been very streaky (and may be replaced?) and the running game has been productive. With a year of NFL play under his belt and an opportunity for the coaching staff to work his strengths into the play-book I would expect CJ to be used more in the passing game in an effort to get him into space. The Baltimore playoff game was a good example of how to better utilize his skills (speed/shiftiness). Granted it was one game but it was the kind of usage we CJ3 fanatics had been hoping for.

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I offered Steve Smith for CJ in my dynasty leage and was turned down....

Rightfully so. I have Johnson and I wouldn't take any WR straight up for him. Honestly if Peterson isn't in the deal, I probably wouldn't deal Johnson, and even then it would have to be straight up. I don't think he's even scratched the surface of his upside yet. He's got legit 2,000 total yard, 15 TD potential, possibly starting as soon as next season.

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I offered Steve Smith for CJ in my dynasty leage and was turned down....

Rightfully so. I have Johnson and I wouldn't take any WR straight up for him. Honestly if Peterson isn't in the deal, I probably wouldn't deal Johnson, and even then it would have to be straight up. I don't think he's even scratched the surface of his upside yet. He's got legit 2,000 total yard, 15 TD potential, possibly starting as soon as next season.
Fitz is the closest WR to fair value for Chris Johnson, imo.And even then, I would take Johnson.

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F&L, Roethlisberger seems to get a ton of respect around here and deservedly so. He's one of the elite QBs in the league right now. I would like to know if you still like his fantasy potential.

My chief concern about Big Ben doesn't come from his talent. Its the number of throws he makes. These are his attempts for his career.

(games played, TDs)

2008: 469 (16, 17)

2007: 404 (15, 32)

2006: 469 (15, 18)

2005: 268 (12, 17)

2004: 295 (13, 17)

If you look at the other elite QBs that are starting fantasy QBs, they are winging it way more frequently. The top six QBs in attempts all finished in the top 7 in fantasy scoring. They averaged 585 passing attempts this year. The only QB to finish highly this year without a lot of passing attempts was Philip Rivers. (478) Its not just a one season fluke with the attempts leaders being the fantasy leaders. In 2007, the top 9 QBs in scoring averaged 558 attempts (not including Big Ben). The lowest attempts by any of them was Peyton Manning with 515. Big Ben had 404 that season finishing 5th in fantasy scoring.

I know Big Ben had 32 TDs in 2007. He finished 5th among QBs just a year ago, and Rivers' 2nd place finish with just 478 attempts shows it can be done. I just don't know how he can consistently compete with the Manning, Brees, Rodgers, Cutler, McNabb and Warner level of QB when he's getting about 100 less attempts than them over the course of a season.

Big Ben may get some more attempts and more time to throw in future seasons with a better oline, but it would seem this coaching staff and offensive system will be in place for some time to come.

I don't think you need to drop him in your rankings. Where he's at seems to be about right. He just killed his owners this year with way too many bad games this year:

8 games with less than 200 yards passing

5 games without a TD

1 game with 3 or more TDs.

;)

I think you covered Big Ben's value very well.

He's kind of like Tom Brady before the 2007 season. We know he's not an elite fantasy QB, but we also know he is an elite NFL QB. In Dynasty leagues, I believe it's much better to have an elite talent at QB and hope for a Big Ben/Brady 2007 breakout than it is to have a mediocre talent and hope your QB doesn't lose all value at a moment's notice (Aaron Brooks, Derek Anderson, Marc Bulger to name a few). I like Big Ben in Dynasty leagues because his ceiling going forward is 40 TDs/4,000 yards while his floor is 2008. His ceiling/floor is certainly up for debate, but that's what I believe it to be.

I fall more in line with the EBF camp on talent trumping situation for Dynasty leaguers. Situation certainly has to be a prime consideration, but talent is the most important factor. Your point about pass attempts is dead on, but I think it's a more crucial consideration for re-drafters as opposed to Dynasty. We know that he can succeed with fewer pass attempts, and I don't believe he's sentenced to low passing attempt numbers the rest of his career just because he plays for the Steelers. Guessing which years he blows up with high passing attempts is a risky business for re-drafters, but having a high ceiling, middling floor QB for Dynasty leagues is fine IMO. I guess if I had Big Ben, I'd try to grab a Kurt Warner type every year for a fallback plan.

Big Ben gets some criticism for holding onto the ball too long, but there's no denying that his O-Line has been poor for the past two seasons. As that line improves, Big Ben's numbers will go up and his injuries will go down.

We've covered him quite a bit over the past couple of years, so my feelings on him are pretty well known. I agree with just about everything in your post, but I guess I just want to emphasize that I have complete faith that this is one of the best QBs in the NFL. For the most part, I'd rather bank on elite talent and let situation be secondary.

I'm rambling here because you've basically covered all the bases already, so I guess the answer to your question "do you still like his fantasy potential?" is: yes. Hell, yes. He's no Peyton Manning or Drew Brees as far as pass attempts go, but his fantasy numbers have nowhere to go but up.

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I agree that Roethlisberger is a great NFL QB, but in my opinion, he is almost universally overrated as a fantasy QB. I hear you say that 08 is his floor and 40 TDs and 4000 yds is his ceiling and that is what I am not buying.

The Steelers are all about running the ball and playing outstanding defense. In Big Ben's career, look at the stats

04 14 gms 295 attempts 8.9 ypa 17 TDs and QB 20 ranking

05 13 gms 268 attempts 8.9 ypa 17 TDs and QB 18 ranking

06 15 gms 469 attempts 7.5 ypa 18 TDs and QB 12 ranking

07 15 gms 404 attempts 7.8 ypa 32 TDs and QB 5 ranking

08 16 gms 468 attempts 7.1 ypa 17 TDs and QB 17 ranking

His history is that he stays in the pocket as long as he can and he gets hit a lot. He is big and strong and has a reputation of playing hurt, yet he has missed games in all his career. except this year. This year there were significant injuries at RB and they threw a little more. but he still finished 17th. I just don't see the high ceiling that you see.

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I agree that Roethlisberger is a great NFL QB, but in my opinion, he is almost universally overrated as a fantasy QB. I hear you say that 08 is his floor and 40 TDs and 4000 yds is his ceiling and that is what I am not buying.The Steelers are all about running the ball and playing outstanding defense. In Big Ben's career, look at the stats04 14 gms 295 attempts 8.9 ypa 17 TDs and QB 20 ranking05 13 gms 268 attempts 8.9 ypa 17 TDs and QB 18 ranking06 15 gms 469 attempts 7.5 ypa 18 TDs and QB 12 ranking07 15 gms 404 attempts 7.8 ypa 32 TDs and QB 5 ranking08 16 gms 468 attempts 7.1 ypa 17 TDs and QB 17 rankingHis history is that he stays in the pocket as long as he can and he gets hit a lot. He is big and strong and has a reputation of playing hurt, yet he has missed games in all his career. except this year. This year there were significant injuries at RB and they threw a little more. but he still finished 17th. I just don't see the high ceiling that you see.

excellent post. :popcorn:

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I offered Steve Smith for CJ in my dynasty leage and was turned down....

Rightfully so. I have Johnson and I wouldn't take any WR straight up for him. Honestly if Peterson isn't in the deal, I probably wouldn't deal Johnson, and even then it would have to be straight up. I don't think he's even scratched the surface of his upside yet. He's got legit 2,000 total yard, 15 TD potential, possibly starting as soon as next season.
Fitz is the closest WR to fair value for Chris Johnson, imo.And even then, I would take Johnson.
I really like Chris Johnson. He is crazy fast, a good receiver, and his team clearly thinks very highly of him. However, there is still a lot of risk associated with him. There aren't (and haven't been) many succesful RBs that look like him. There is a very real possibility that he will have injury issues or always be relagated to a time share.I would at the least (and obviously dependent on your team situation) trade him for Fitz, Calvin Johnson, or Andre Johnson. I would also give very strong consideration to Boldin and Steve Smith. And that's just at WR. There are at least 5 RBs I would rather have (Peterson, Jackson, Gore, MJD for sure and possibly Turner, Forte, or DeAngelo).To be honest, with a gun to my head I'm not sure I'd pick him over Jonathan Stewart.

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I offered Steve Smith for CJ in my dynasty leage and was turned down....

Rightfully so. I have Johnson and I wouldn't take any WR straight up for him. Honestly if Peterson isn't in the deal, I probably wouldn't deal Johnson, and even then it would have to be straight up. I don't think he's even scratched the surface of his upside yet. He's got legit 2,000 total yard, 15 TD potential, possibly starting as soon as next season.
Fitz is the closest WR to fair value for Chris Johnson, imo.And even then, I would take Johnson.
I really like Chris Johnson. He is crazy fast, a good receiver, and his team clearly thinks very highly of him. However, there is still a lot of risk associated with him. There aren't (and haven't been) many succesful RBs that look like him. There is a very real possibility that he will have injury issues or always be relagated to a time share.To be honest, with a gun to my head I'm not sure I'd pick him over Jonathan Stewart.
Following Johnson this season I've heard this argument a lot, and you hear comparisons to guys like Charlie Garner and Brian Westbrook, but I think Johnson is very similar to Marshall Faulk, obviously his offense is nothing like those great Rams teams, but Johnson is such a weapon in the open field that I could see him having 60-70 catches per year(Johnson spent a year at WR in college) in time. I think they took it very easy with him due to his status as a rookie, but really I think he's only going to get better.Also, I have Johnson and Stewart on my dynasty team, and would love to hear your reasoning for having Johnson and Stewart pretty close to equal.

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definitely in agreement that it's about talent over situation, if/when you can afford it. Personally, this isn't as big a gap for my starters, but I try to always swing for the fences and draft talent that might blow up with later picks rather than older guys where you know what you're getting

on that note, i just traded Ray Rice and LeRon McClain (and a pair of 2nd rounders) for J-Stew...

it's only a change of my flex/RB3 slot, so I decided Stewart's potential was worth it. IMO Stewart is one of the top RB talents to enter the league in the last few years, it's just a question of how soon he can find PT around D-Will. Also, consolidating 2 spots into 1 is always nice as I consider myself pretty good with finding value on the waiver wire (got McClain, Cassel, Thigpen, and Bess off waivers this year) and grabbing prospects who have a good chance of blowing up.

I'm currently holding onto Willis still, so hopefully he rededicates himself this offseason and wins the starting job there (or somewhere else...denver maybe?) That's probably a longshot though

Edited by EthnicFury

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I agree that Roethlisberger is a great NFL QB, but in my opinion, he is almost universally overrated as a fantasy QB. I hear you say that 08 is his floor and 40 TDs and 4000 yds is his ceiling and that is what I am not buying.The Steelers are all about running the ball and playing outstanding defense. In Big Ben's career, look at the stats04 14 gms 295 attempts 8.9 ypa 17 TDs and QB 20 ranking05 13 gms 268 attempts 8.9 ypa 17 TDs and QB 18 ranking06 15 gms 469 attempts 7.5 ypa 18 TDs and QB 12 ranking07 15 gms 404 attempts 7.8 ypa 32 TDs and QB 5 ranking08 16 gms 468 attempts 7.1 ypa 17 TDs and QB 17 rankingHis history is that he stays in the pocket as long as he can and he gets hit a lot. He is big and strong and has a reputation of playing hurt, yet he has missed games in all his career. except this year. This year there were significant injuries at RB and they threw a little more. but he still finished 17th. I just don't see the high ceiling that you see.

He had 32 passing TDs and 34 total TDs in 2007 despite just 404 attempts. With 490-500 attempts and a better pass-blocking line at some point in the future, 40 TDs in a career year is certainly within reach. Edited by Fear & Loathing

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His history is that he stays in the pocket as long as he can and he gets hit a lot.

He's a playmaker. He stays in the pocket as long as it takes, not as long as he can.

He is big and strong and has a reputation of playing hurt, yet he has missed games in all his career. except this year.

He is big and strong, and he does play hurt, and he's probably the most physical QB in the game. And he's still never missed more than a couple of games in a season. The Steelers will continue to make improvements to the O-Line, which will help in the future.

This year there were significant injuries at RB and they threw a little more. but he still finished 17th. I just don't see the high ceiling that you see.

See 2007.

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I offered Steve Smith for CJ in my dynasty leage and was turned down....

Rightfully so. I have Johnson and I wouldn't take any WR straight up for him. Honestly if Peterson isn't in the deal, I probably wouldn't deal Johnson, and even then it would have to be straight up. I don't think he's even scratched the surface of his upside yet. He's got legit 2,000 total yard, 15 TD potential, possibly starting as soon as next season.
Fitz is the closest WR to fair value for Chris Johnson, imo.And even then, I would take Johnson.
I really like Chris Johnson. He is crazy fast, a good receiver, and his team clearly thinks very highly of him. However, there is still a lot of risk associated with him. There aren't (and haven't been) many succesful RBs that look like him. There is a very real possibility that he will have injury issues or always be relagated to a time share.To be honest, with a gun to my head I'm not sure I'd pick him over Jonathan Stewart.
Following Johnson this season I've heard this argument a lot, and you hear comparisons to guys like Charlie Garner and Brian Westbrook, but I think Johnson is very similar to Marshall Faulk, obviously his offense is nothing like those great Rams teams, but Johnson is such a weapon in the open field that I could see him having 60-70 catches per year(Johnson spent a year at WR in college) in time. I think they took it very easy with him due to his status as a rookie, but really I think he's only going to get better.Also, I have Johnson and Stewart on my dynasty team, and would love to hear your reasoning for having Johnson and Stewart pretty close to equal.
Like I said, I really like Chris Johnson. And I agree that his upside is similar to what you are saying (60-70 catches certainly seems reasonable for him). My point is that while he may be used like Faulk to a degree he certainly doesn't look like Faulk or Westbrook. He is actually built very similar to Garner.You mentioned that CJ played WR for a year in college, while that reflects well on his versitility it also reflects the fact that he is built like a WR. He is 5'11" 197 lbs.Faulk was 5'10" 211 lbs (slightly shorter, quite a bit heavier)Westbrook is 5'8" 200 lbs (shorter and heavier)Garners was 5'10" 190 lbsI am not denying that he is a phenomenal talent, just that he also poses quite a bit more risk than some of his more ardent supporters like to admit.As to the Stewart vs. Johnson issue. That is not a reflection on my opinion of Johnson so much as a reflection on my opinion of Stewart. When I watch Stewart play he looks like what I expect a stud running back to look like. His power and stiff arm are devastating. He also has elite speed. People often compare him to Steven Jackson but other than size/speed I don't think that comparison fits. I like Jackson but when you watch him play he is like a ball of energy. Every play has arms flailing, hair waiving, and feet chopping. Stewart is just so efficient in his movement. He hits the hole fast and doesn't make any unnecessary moves. He can break tackles and run away from people. His short term upside is limited by DeAngelo Williams but if you have a team that is set for the next year or two with decent RB depth I think his long term upside is much higher than Chris Johnson's.

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This year there were significant injuries at RB and they threw a little more. but he still finished 17th. I just don't see the high ceiling that you see.

See 2007.
If you look at 2007, it's more the exception rather than the rule.The numbers don't lie.

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This year there were significant injuries at RB and they threw a little more. but he still finished 17th. I just don't see the high ceiling that you see.

See 2007.
If you look at 2007, it's more the exception rather than the rule.The numbers don't lie.
The numbers also don't predict the future. I'd like to see how you used Tom Brady's career numbers of 24-28 TDs to predict his 50 TD season.

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I offered Steve Smith for CJ in my dynasty leage and was turned down....

Rightfully so. I have Johnson and I wouldn't take any WR straight up for him. Honestly if Peterson isn't in the deal, I probably wouldn't deal Johnson, and even then it would have to be straight up. I don't think he's even scratched the surface of his upside yet. He's got legit 2,000 total yard, 15 TD potential, possibly starting as soon as next season.
Why hold onto Johnson when his perceived value is so high that you can't be wrong trading him? (Injuries aside)

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This year there were significant injuries at RB and they threw a little more. but he still finished 17th. I just don't see the high ceiling that you see.

See 2007.
If you look at 2007, it's more the exception rather than the rule.The numbers don't lie.
The numbers also don't predict the future. I'd like to see how you used Tom Brady's career numbers of 24-28 TDs to predict his 50 TD season.
Again Tom Brady isn't the norm, he's the exception.Anyone can grab a player who performed way beyond expectationsthen fit him into a discussion about another player at the same position.Ben is not Brady.I have Ben ranked out of the top 10 for QBs, based on his output. I have seen very little to convince me that he is a top 10 QB FF wise.

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This year there were significant injuries at RB and they threw a little more. but he still finished 17th. I just don't see the high ceiling that you see.

See 2007.
If you look at 2007, it's more the exception rather than the rule.

The numbers don't lie.

The numbers also don't predict the future.

I'd like to see how you used Tom Brady's career numbers of 24-28 TDs to predict his 50 TD season.

Again Tom Brady isn't the norm, he's the exception.

Anyone can grab a player who performed way beyond expectations

then fit him into a discussion about another player at the same position.

Ben is not Brady.

For the record, I was making the exact same argument about both players well before their breakout 2007 seasons.

Both were Top-5 NFL QBs who had not been elite fantasy QBs. Big Ben is probably the most physically talented QB in the NFL and, IMO, very much on track to enter the HOF when he's finished playing.

And he already has a 34-TD season under his belt with the same coaching staff that he has now

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