Sinrj said:
What I am looking for is the guys like Ryan Grant of last year. He should have been sold during the offseason (even after the draft since GB didn't really take a RB that would challenge him). On the "buy low" side, I would say someone like Calvin Johnson, Roddy White, or Chris Johnson. Even a Thomas Jones (who could have been had for a song and was very valuable in start 3 RB leagues).
After the 2003 season, I had Julius Jones and Kevin Jones on one of my dynasty rosters. Both of those guys are near worthless in FF leagues right now, but that wasn't the case at the time. They were consensus top 3-4 rookie picks who had shown serious flashes of talent during their rookie seasons. Both guys were ranked as consensus top 10 dynasty RBs. Should I have sold high? Of course, but it's a lot tougher to make that call when you're the one sitting there with two 22 year old RBs who look like future stars.
You tend to want to keep guys like that. How was I to know that they had both already peaked?
Maybe but the following years showed the same trend. RB aren't reliable and rookies even less. Trading rookie RB who performed well in their first season would reward you more often then not IMO. Of course there is a few exception. (ADP, MJD). Not sure who is the exception in this year class but its likely a few of them have already peaked.
I don't disagree. The flipside is that you might want to buy rookie RBs who didn't perform well in their first season assuming that you have faith in their talent.
Opportunity is a huge component of success. If you look at this year's top three rookie RBs, one thing that jumps out is that all of them stepped into a great opportunity. Forte only had to compete with a broken down Kevin Jones and a mediocre Adrian Peterson. Slaton only had to compete with a broken down Ahman Green and an injured Chris Brown. Chris Johnson only had to compete with a mediocre (or worse) LenDale White and a draft bust Chris Henry. These three rookies all had clear paths to significant immediate playing time, which allowed them to put up some stats and accumulate hype.
Then look at at Jonathan Stewart, Felix Jones, and Tashard Choice. All of these guys played well when given opportunities, but none of them had a clear path to significant immediate playing time. Stewart had to compete with DeAngelo Williams. Felix Jones and Tashard Choice had to compete with Marion Barber. These three rookies all flashed intriguing talent, but they didn't produce consistently useful FF numbers and were thus irrelevant in many leagues.
What if you flipped the situations? What if Tashard Choice was on the Texans, Felix Jones was on the Titans, and Jonathan Stewart was on the Bears? What if Chris Johnson and Steve Slaton were on the Cowboys and Matt Forte was on the Panthers? My guess is that people would be very high on Choice, Felix, and Stewart. People would be intrigued by Slaton, CJ, and Forte, but they wouldn't rank them as elite dynasty backs. Why? Well, it's a matter of awareness.
You can think of a player like Felix Jones or Jonathan Stewart as hidden. They played well, but their value remains hidden because they didn't get enough opportunities to make their talent obvious. On the flipside, Matt Forte, Chris Johnson, and Steve Slaton are exposed. They played well and got enough opportunities to expose their talent, so their value is no longer hidden.
In general, an exposed player is more likely to be overvalued than a hidden player. Look at Anthony Thomas. He was a mediocre talent who landed in a talent void and produced a string of decent games. During that same rookie season, Deuce McAllister was sitting on the bench behind Ricky Williams. Hindsight tells us that Deuce was clearly the more talented back, but A-Train was higher on everyone's board after their first year in the league.
One of the dirty little secrets of this hobby is that virtually any RB on an NFL roster can produce decent stats if he gets 15-20 touches per game. Ladell Betts, Reuben Droughns, Justin Fargas, Chester Taylor, Mewelde Moore, Peyton Hillis, Derrick Ward, Pierre Thomas, etc, etc, etc. Yet whenever a rookie puts up decent stats in a starting role, he's hailed as a top 10 dynasty back. It happens literally every year around here. Sometimes it's deserved (ADP, LT) and sometimes it's not (Julius, KJ, A-Train). The problem is that all of these instantly productive backs accumulate mega hype and are picked in the top 20 of dynasty drafts after their rookie season. There's no margin for error when you take them that high. You're paying full price for the upside without factoring in the risk.
The beauty of rookie "busts" like Shaun Alexander, Larry Johnson, Deuce McAllister, and DeAngelo Williams is that you can get the same type of talent at a reduced cost simply because their lack of opportunities keeps their value hidden. I think Jonathan Stewart is the most talented RB in this draft class, but you can get him for a fraction of the cost of Chris Johnson. I think it's entirely possible that Felix Jones is better than Steve Slaton, but his price tag is much lower. I think
Rashard Mendenhall might be better than Matt Forte, but you'd be laughed out of the room if you made that trade.
I'm not opposed to paying a premium for an instant star like Adrian Peterson or
Eddie Royal. Sometimes those guys are the real deal, but often times you can find players with similar ability and a lower price tag. It's usually these hidden players who offer the best risk/reward proposition.
Just hang onto the elite talents and trade the rest. Now you just have to figure out who the elite talents are, and those are your nucleus players.
Put this in the fantasy bible.
Pierre's value might be on the rise, but he's still worth a look if you want a good long term RB at a reasonable price. You might have more luck making a deal than I did. After that, the options become a little less exciting. Maroney, Sproles, Washington, and Choice have some upside. Derrick Ward and Kevin Jones could be worth a look.
Pierre's value might be on the rise, but he's still worth a look if you want a good long term RB at a reasonable price. You might have more luck making a deal than I did. After that, the options become a little less exciting. Maroney, Sproles, Washington, and Choice have some upside. Derrick Ward and Kevin Jones could be worth a look.
I think you covered Big Ben's value very well.
